Zuccarello Healthy; Can He Help Rangers Offense?

Amid the Rangers stumbling offense and the awful nine game losing streak the Whale find themselves in down in the AHL, perhaps unnoticed to many, is the pending return of Mats Zuccarello. Many have given up on the small Norwegian and depth has certainly helped pushed him back in to the AHL, but his talent and skill have never been doubted.

It just so happens that the Hobbit’s game doesn’t fit a checking style and he needs to be in a scoring role, but if the Rangers continue to be (at best) inconsistent offensively an opening could appear. So, should the undersized winger make a strong impression in the next week or so, could he become a candidate to help kick start the Rangers offense?

The skilled winger could have some success if paired with a passer like Richards and a hard hustling winger like Callahan, however, Zuccarello may not be able to influence his own future regardless of how impressive his AHL return is. There are players already in New York (Dubinsky, Anisimov, Richards among others) who, if they raise their game, would render the Zuccarello scenario moot. However, so long as the Rangers offense – and power play- remain underwhelming Zuccarello may be able to force himself back in to the equation.

Zuccarello shouldn’t be lacking for motivation. With his all star appearance in the AHL this weekend to look forward to ‘Zuke’ also knows that from the minute he gets back on to the ice, he’s playing for his Rangers and perhaps NHL future. He needs to show progress, desire and above all, production.

Can Zuccarello force himself back in to the equation? If he can show that he can play without the puck yes. If he can control and be effective on the powerplay for the Whale, yes. If Boyle, Dubinsky, Anisimov and (insert underwhelming forward’s name here) continue to shoot blanks, yes. There’s certainly an opportunity there for Zuccarello if he can make a quick impact in the AHL, but it goes without saying he’s running out of time.

Scouting The Deadline Part 3: Identifying Trade Partners And The Deal

Part 1: Identifying Team Needs and Surpluses
Part 2: Identifying Appropriate Return For Assets

As we roll into the trade deadline, rumors are going to be appearing from every possible angle. Aside from judging the source (note: HFBoards is not a source), there are a few ways to tell if a rumor is legitimate or if it is just someone blowing hot air. This Scouting The Deadline series is going to be a three part series where identify and analyze the three key steps in the trade process. Today is the third and final post, and it will address identifying the ideal trade partner and that perfect deal. All three posts are now permanently pinned in the brand new GM Tactics page.

In the first two posts, we identified where the Rangers have a surplus (defensive prospects), and where they have a need (top six LW), and where other teams need help (Ducks – defensive defensemen, Coyotes – offense). We also identified what exactly the return should be for specific types of players. The key to building a successful trade is identifying where those needs for the Rangers coincide with a surplus for a trading partner; and where those surpluses for the Rangers coincide with a need for a trading partner.

This again brings us back to the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks, as mentioned above, have a big need for a defensive defenseman. Between Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin, and Lubomir Visnovsky, the Ducks are set in terms of blueliners that can contribute offensively. But outside of Toni Lydman, they lack that pure defensive defenseman who is capable of playing top-four minutes. The Rangers have that in abundance, with a few more on the way.

Focusing on Bobby Ryan for a second (again, I know, you must be tired of it), he fills a big need for the Rangers, and the Rangers definitely have the pieces to acquire him. While the rumored asking price is two roster players, a prospect, and a first round pick; the more likely asking price is one young roster player, one prospect, and a pick. The quality of the prospect and the quality of the pick will be determined by the quality of the roster player.

Backing away from the Ducks for a second, let’s look at the Phoenix Coyotes, who we identified have a big need for a scoring prospect. The Rangers have three big names that can fit that bill: Chris Kreider, JT Miller, and Christian Thomas. While Kreider is unlikely to be moved for any of the players on the Coyotes roster, including Shane Doan, someone like Thomas sure is intriguing to a team like Phoenix. That said, when you look at the Coyotes roster, it is tough to really find a player that jumps out at you as a guy you are willing to move Miller or Thomas for. These guys won’t be moved for rentals, as discussed in the second post in this series.

It is due to this lack of intriguing options on the Coyotes that makes any potential deal with them to be less of a blockbuster type and more of a rental for spare parts type. With so many defensemen becoming free agents, a prospect who is not as high on the Rangers depth chart (see: Valentenko, Pavel) could be equally as attractive for the Coyotes. They aren’t a perfect match, but there is a deal to be made there for a rental.

It’s never quite as simple as throwing names up on the board and saying that the deal works, but right now we have identified two teams that seem to be good trading partners, and have the tools to make it work. Now it’s a matter of identifying that perfect deal, which takes us back to knowing what you want for your assets.

“The Deal” here is not going to be top prospects or young roster players for a rental. That doesn’t fit the Rangers M.O. anymore. So you can eliminate any worries of Thomas for Whitney, or Kreider for Whitney, or Kreider for Hemsky, etc. But if the organization feels they can make a run –and every sign points to them looking like they can– then the powers that be might look to deal one of these top prospects to fill a need. After all, hockey is about winning Cups and using assets to build that Cup contender.

Prospect’s Prospering

Let’s have a look at some of the Rangers draft picks and future hopes and how they’ve been doing recently. It’s been a while since we checked in around the junior circuits.

Saintly Returns

Michael St Croix is a plus 30 for the season. Yes, you read that right. It’s because he’s flat out scoring for fun. A mid round pick of the Rangers in 2011, its unlikely many people saw this level of scoring from St Croix. The skilled center has grabbed 77 points in just 48 games in the WHL this season, which given the stingier nature of the WHL (as opposed to other junior leagues) is an exceptional return.

You want progress? St Croix’s offensive return is the two points better than his total points from last season in 20 games less. Clearly, the Rangers have another talented center on their hands. Oh and he’s now been crowned player of the week twice. One to keep your eyes on folks.

Back in Scoring Mode

The Rangers seem to have offensive potential springing up everywhere right now. Joining St Croix in quality offensive production is JT Miller who has recently got back to his scoring ways and now boasts 43 points in 39 games for the Whalers of the OHL.

Miller has learnt a lot this season. From his time with the Rangers to the world Juniors, Miller has been exposed to a variety of levels of hockey this season as well as the exposure to more hockey than he’s been used to. Miller’s another player that looks a great draft pick so far.

Best of the Rest

Honourable mentions in the offensive stakes have to go to Shane McColgan, Andrew Yogan, Christian Thomas and Steven Fogarty who are all close to or above the point per game threshold in their respective leagues. Naturally, each player has a different level of expectancy placed on their shoulders and is in different stages of their development but so long as each one can continue to produce as their respective leagues head to the critical time in their seasons, it bodes well for their immediate futures. With Christian Thomas turning 20 in May, he’s almost certainly one that’s headed for pro hockey next season.

Final Mention

In need of a change of scenery all season has been Scott Stajcer. The Owen Sound goalie has put up solid numbers when called upon but has split the crease with Jordan Binnington. Wins aside, Stajcer has put up the far superior numbers (924% to .890, 2.53 GAA to JB’s 3.38) but it has to be a concern that as an over-ager Stajcer hasn’t had anywhere near the playing time his development needs.

Given the still murky goalie situation behind Lundqvist and Biron, Stajcer still has a shot with the organisation as no goalie with the Whale has shown to have full time NHL potential this season. Stajcer’s destination next season will be an interesting development over the coming months.

Musings: Deadline Rentals, Those Damn Regressionists & More

Deadline Rentals

There is a lot of debate going on about whether or not we should acquire a power play quarter back, left wing scorer, or both at the deadline. It seems as though when people finally wake up & realize how slim our chances are of acquiring a Shea Weber or a Bobby Ryan, their next play is to find a cheaper alternative. But there is a flaw in the “deadline rental” logic as well.

Rentals are not going to solve our problems, especially in the long-term. Acquiring one may make sense for depth, but to think getting another erratic 40 point winger or a defensemen with a “cannon from the point” is going to put us over the edge is a bit of a stretch.

What we really need is for some combo of Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, or Christian Thomas living up to their potential. There may be a time down the road when trading one of these assets for an elite player is the right move, but I don’t think that time has arrived yet given where our prospects are, who is available, and the looming CBA talks.

Those of you who wish to see Dubi get moved, I politely ask who has more value at the deadline? A forward on pace for 25 goals or a forward on pace for 9 goals? I’m not against trading Dubinsky one day, but this is not the deadline to do so.

Stick to the Blueprint

My other issue with all of the names being thrown around is that few if any actually fit within our team concept. I’m tired of acquiring guys like Frolov, Wolski, EC, etc, who have no desire to forecheck or backcheck, and then we wonder why they don’t fit.

The national media doesn’t see the ingredients which makes our team successful on a game to game basis. If we are able to make a move at the deadline, they better be for players who can skate, have succeeded in deep forechecking systems and are defensively responsible. Souray, Hemsky, & Whitney need not apply.

Regression to the mean?

Read more »

Do The Rangers Rely Too Much On Callahan?

He sets the tone with his hustle and effort and leads with his desire and (growing) offensive ability, but do the Rangers rely too much on Ryan Callahan? It’s a worthwhile question, because during a period in which Callahan had been at his most ordinary (in a stretch prior to the Boston game) the Rangers went through their roughest patch since the start of the season. Coincidence?

Callahan has developed offensively to a point where he now literally does everything for the Rangers. He’s the team’s second most prolific goal scorer, he’s annually a league leader in hits, blocks countless of shots and plays in every single situation. We saw last year, when Callahan went down for an extended period of time, just how much the Rangers missed him. What is the remedy to the over reliance? Other players need to step up.

After a promising start to the campaign, more often than not Brad Richards has been a passenger. That is unacceptable for a man brought in to help lead the team to bigger things. Derek Stepan has cooled off considerably but, in all fairness, it’s too early to place too much pressure on the young sophomore. Brandon Dubinsky has been better but is clearly not the player this team needs him to be and then there are players such as Fedotenko and Brian Boyle who leave it all on the ice but at some point that is not enough. Anisimov? MIA.

It’s hard to be overly critical of a team that has the record the Rangers boast, however such is that record that the focus naturally switches to post-April potential. This Rangers team, without a better spread of production, cannot beat Boston over an extended series. If the Pens get healthy there’s a likelihood the Rangers struggle with their rivals in Pittsburgh as well.

With all due respect, when a solid journeyman like John Mitchell is one of your better players of late (3 points in 5) and you’re expecting too much from a talented but still rookie Carl Hagelin there’s an issue. If teams are able to shut down Marian Gaborik and then Ryan Callahan as well, Henrik Lundqvist has to be brilliant. It’s a good job he is just that.

Captain Cally is playing close to 21 minutes per game and given his style and reckless endeavour that’s possibly too much. Whether it’s through a transaction or changes in the line up several Rangers need to be better offensively. Not previously known for his offense (in the first instance) it may be a bad sign that the team is needing to rely on its heart and soul leader to score the big goals.

Chad Johnson Returned To AHL, Hagelin To Play In Rookie Game

As expected, goaltender Chad Johnson was returned to the AHL immediately following last night’s 3-0 victory over the Winnipeg Jets. Johnson was called up to serve as the backup to Henrik Lundqvist. Martin Biron was supposed to start the game, but was scratched with the flu. With no games for the next week, it is likely that Biron will be healthy enough for action when games resume.

In other news, per Josh Rimer, Carl Hagelin is expected to be named to the Rookie Game as an injury replacement. Good to see the kid get rewarded for his play. He has succeeded exceeded everyone’s expectations, even those who watched him reguarly at Michigan.

The Prospect Quagmire

As the trade deadline approaches, no time is more fun to play armchair GM.  Its easy to swap underperforming players and picks like trading cards and instantly transform the team into a playoff power house.  This enjoyable little exercise usually leads to us giving a deeper examination to the value of prospects and roster players we could see being moved for a deadline upgrade.

Prospects were once traded with relative anonymity and by the time they blossomed into stars, we had probably forgotten what organization originally drafted them (I know I had long forgotten that Adam Graves was originally a Red Wings draft pick).  Today, we can follow the career of a young player from the junior hockey/college ranks, even some in prep school.  This type of access allows us, as fans, to form bonds with these players and the potential impact that they may have some day.  Just like children, everyone loves their own kids more than anyone else’s and this is an especially important concept come prime trading times.

Let me preface this by saying that I am tremendously excited for the future of the Rangers organization.  They have drafted and traded well over the past 5+ years and the system is starting to bear the fruit of that work.  There is serious prospect depth in the minors/juniors and we have seen homegrown stars in Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and Ryan Callahan come into their own right before our eyes.  Players like Brandon Dubinsky and Michael Del Zotto have found success at the NHL level and Carl Hagelin has made an immediate impact since his call up.  Also, we can’t leave out everyone’s favorite 7^th round draft pick, Henrik Lundqvist.

We all like to envision every member of the farm system representing another piece in an all homegrown Rangers Stanley Cup champion.  After all, young, cost-controlled players with upside are the best way to manage the cap and avoid the potential albatross deals that have been something of a blight on Glen Sather’s record.  From a practical standpoint however, one of the biggest benefits of a strong farm system is the ability to trade from an area of strength to shore up weaknesses on the big club.  As Dave has astutely pointed out in his Scouting the Deadline series, it is important to be able to accurately value these assets and make a business decision about whether to proceed with a given move.

What we all need to remember is that prospects are essentially lottery tickets.  We have all lived through our fair share of first round busts, and unfortunately the vast amount of players simply don’t live up to their ceiling.  Take Chris Krieder, for example.  Every scouting report I have ever read about him says his physical gifts are truly elite.  On the other hand, there are serious concerns about his hockey IQ and awareness/anticipation on the ice.  Now, this obviously isn’t to say he cannot succeed or be every bit as effective as his skills will allow him to be.  It’s just to say that he is not a known quantity at this point.  Depending on the other pieces, I wouldn’t be opposed to including him in a trade for someone like Bobby Ryan for instance.

As the deadline draws near, the Rangers’ are in somewhat of a precarious position.  Their window of contention is opening a little earlier than most expected, and it takes careful management not to overplay your hand and set your organizational development back.  Stripping down the farm system for an elite player could potentially be that final piece that brings Lord Stanley back to Broadway, or it could mean losing several key pieces that could help achieve the same result in 2-3 years.  This is the $64,000 question.

The ability to follow our teams prospects from the amateur ranks to The Show has added a new layer to hockey fandom.  It helps give up a more three-dimensional look at the management of the organization and it’s a lot of fun to see where the next crop of great Rangers is going to come from.  When it comes to evaluating moves or non-moves made this deadline season, it’s important not to hug prospects too tightly and look rather at the whether the move is good asset management and will help the team deliver its goal of raising the Stanley Cup in the very near future.

Rangers/Jets In Review

The Ranger decided they wanted to enter the All Star break on a high note, and completely dominated the Winnipeg Jets of the Southeast Division in the Eastern Conference all game tonight. The Rangers owned the Jets (that’s now twice I started typing Thrashers and had to erase it) in all three zones, and aside from one hiccup in the first where the Thrashers generated a few scoring chances, the Rangers managed to completely control the play. Let’s get to the bullet points:

Offense

• How about that Ryan Callahan? He sure does a lot in front of the net. He was uncontested on that first goal, as Zach Bogosian just allowed him to hang out in front of Ondrej Pavelec all day. When Pavelec couldn’t handle the rising Anton Stralman shot, there was nothing anyone could do. It was Callahan’s to miss. Then he does it all again by taking the puck away from the Jets in the third, giving the puck to Brad Richards, who buried it. Richards needed that goal badly.
• That shift by John Mitchell during his goal sure was something else. He got some powerplay time, forechecked to death, came back and backchecked, then took a nice feed from Michael Del Zotto. It’s a shot that Pavelec should have had, but a goal is a goal.
• Del Zotto makes mistakes, but wow has he had a solid season, and this game was no different. He made a great defense play on Blake Wheeler in the second period by doing the simple things. He just stayed with his man, who is not a shooter, and let him make the first move. That is what we call progress folks. This kid may be for real.
• Brian Boyle can’t buy a goal, can he? Hits the post in the second. But for what he lacks in offense he makes up for in guts. His entire body weight fell on his bad right ankle. He can’t even get to the bench, misses a few shifts, but is right back out there for the penalty kill.
• Who’s more snake bitten right now: Boyle or Brandon Dubinsky?
• Very few people can match Carl Hagelin’s speed, but Marian Gaborik may be one of them. It’s odd to say that Derek Stepan is the slowest guy on that line, but he is, and it isn’t even close.
• The Rangers sure do do a good job of pressuring teams on the forecheck, forcing turnovers, and capitalizing. It’s what they did on the first goal, and they did it all game to the Jets.
• The powerplay may not have converted, but they generated some quality chances. At some point that won’t be enough though. They need to start burying these opportunities. That play with Del Zotto in the third really stings. He needs to shoot there.

Defense/Goaltending

• Henrik Lundqvist…you are almost the perfect goalie. But for the love of all that is holy, please stop handling the puck. Please.
• Hank sure is making his case for the Vezina this year. There were at least two highlight reel saves made tonight. Another shutout for The King.
• Speaking of awards: Forget Pavel Datsyuk. Ryan Callahan for Selke.
• Ryan McDonagh didn’t look out of place at all after taking that vicious hit from Andrew Ference over the weekend. He’s lucky too. He and the entire defensive unit played a solid game, albeit against a very offensively challenged and very shorthanded Winnipeg Jets squad.
• As good as the Rangers are at forechecking is as good as they are at blocking shots. Wow.
• Fighting has its place in the game, but these fights after clean hits need to stop. Mike Rupp leveled Jiri Slater with a clean hit, and was immediately challenged by Chris Thorburn. You’re a tough guy, we get it, but that hit was clean.

Opposition/Officiating

• The Jets have a good young core on this team, but it is clear they are lacking a system and a few key components before they become legitimate contenders. That first component: an elite scorer.
• What the Jets lack in production from their forwards they make up for in production from their defensemen. Their first two shots came from the point, and all game their defensemen were in on the play, specifically Tobias Enstrom.
• While the refs missed calls, this game was called consistently, which is all you can really ask for nowadays.

Game 47: Rangers vs. Jets

Standings: Jets (22-21-6), Rangers (30-12-4)

NYR Leading Scorer: Marian Gaborik (25-14-39)
Jets Leading Scorer: Blake Wheeler (9-24-33)

NYR Goaltender: Martin Biron (11 GS, 1.87 GAA, .930 SV%)
Jets Goaltender: Ondrej Pavelec (39 GS, 2.83 GAA, .910 SV%)

Rangers Lines (probable):

Carl Hagelin-Derek Stepan-Marian Gaborik
Brandon Dubinsky-Brian Boyle-Ryan Callahan
Ruslan Fedotenko-Brad Richards-Brandon Prust
Mike Rupp-Artem Anisimov-John Mitchell

Ryan McDonagh-Dan Girardi
Michael Del Zotto-Anton Stralman
Marc Staal-Stu Bickel

Martin Biron gets the start today.

Scratches/Injuries: Mike Sauer (concussion), Jeff Woywitka (foot), Wojtek Wolski (healthy)

Preview: This will be the Rangers last game before the break for the All Star Game, which appears to be a much needed break. The Rangers are finding ways to win despite certain aspects of their game (offense) taking nights (weeks) off. The Jets are a team that are in the bottom third in the conference in scoring and defense. They have a good young core in place, but are obviously missing some key pieces that can put it all together.

Blake Wheeler may be their leading scorer, but Evander Kane is the guy that most look to as their elite player. After all, anyone that knocks out Matt Cooke with one punch is A-OK in my book. The Jets are without Dustin Byfuglien tonight, but the highly touted Zach Bogosian has been playing very well in his stead.

I don’t watch much of the Winnipeg Jets of the Southeast Eastern Conference, so I don’t know much about how exactly they play. What is very obvious is that they get a lot of offense from their defense, so that is something for the Rangers to look out for.  The Rangers will need to watch out for those point men creeping in for opportunities. Bogosian and Tobias Enstrom are pretty good at that.

*Side note, as Suit noted for the Bruins game, don’t look too much into line combos, these are likely to change a lot throughout the game as Torts tries to find something to get the top six going.

Crazy Thought: The Rangers score more than two goals.

Opponent’s Blog: Jets Nation

Game time is 7:00pm on MSG2 (listings), AM970, and XM92.

Christensen, Johnson Called Up; Biron Out

Per the AHL Transaction Log, the Rangers have called up forward Erik Christensen and goaltender Chad Johnson. Christensen’s call up is obvious: his two week training stint with the Whale ended.

As for Johnson, it looks like he will dress as the backup tonight, as Martin Biron –the slated starter for tonight– is out with the flu.

The Johnson call up is clearly temporary, but it will be interesting to see how the Rangers handle Christensen. Wojtek Wolski has been just as useless as Christensen, but Christensen’s cap hit is $3 million less. It wouldn’t shock me to see Wolski waived in lieu of Christensen.