Rangers Musings

With Jeremy in the moving process, and Jurgenno without internet for a bit, it’s up to me to continue with the Rangers Musings.

• Why do people seem to think that because the Rangers signed Tim Kennedy, that Dale Weise is automatically going to Hartford? They play different positions. The Rangers are still short on RW, even though they have 11 players at the C/LW positions.
• Speaking of those 11 players (Dubinsky, Prospal, Frolov, Christensen, Drury, Kennedy, Avery, Boogaard, Anisimov, White, Boyle), there has to be some sort of deal coming, right? Even if the Rangers carry 13 forwards, with four RW, that leaves 9 C/LW. Either two players are getting traded, or two are going to Hartford.
• Mats Zuccarello-Aasen wasn’t included in the 11 forwards for a reason, I don’t believe he will make the roster out of camp. If he does, then it’s 12 C/LW, and 3 are destined for Hartford.
• It’s good to see that Sean Avery is planning on returning to form this season. If he doesn’t, I don’t think he will be around much longer.
• Martin Biron may not be a determining factor in the hunt for the playoffs, but will be the biggest factor in the playoffs. A rested King is a good King.
• Even if Alex Frolov doesn’t spend time with Marian Gaborik at even strength, he will see a ton of powerplay time with him. I expect a good season from the winger.
• Derek Stepan and Evgenvy Grachev will be playing in Hartford next season. The reason? There are 11 C/LW signed already. Oh, and they just simply aren’t ready yet.
• Ryan McDonagh, assuming a normal camp, will probably make the roster. If he doesn’t, he will be the first call up.
• Regardless if McDonagh makes the roster, the Rangers need to dump salary. However, that doesn’t need to be done by dumping Wade Redden. If Staal signs for anything less than $4.5 million, the Rangers can send Matt Gilroy, Todd White, and MZA to Hartford and still have the cap space for Redden and Staal. If Staal signs for $4 million, then the Rangers can have Staal, McDonagh and Redden on the roster, and have seven defensemen and thirteen forwards. (Cap numbers as per CapGeek)
• Dark horse to make the team: Ethan Werek.
• As for Staal, a deal will be done. It not time to panic yet. When Bobby Ryan signs, then it’s time to panic.
• Donald Fehr is perfect for the union, just pay him his money and get some solid leadership.
• This is the 13th bullet in the Musings, and it makes me wonder. Why do buildings in NYC skip the number 13? The elevators go from 12 to 14. Those on the “14th floor” are really on the 13th floor.
• Minor programming note: Jeremy is still moving, Jurgenno is without internet, and I will be going to Fire Island tomorrow for the weekend. So I am going to be writing posts tonight and tomorrow for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. They won’t be outdated by the time they are posted, but any big news may have a delay in posting.
• What are the odds that Hurricane Earl delays or cancels my trip? I say, 45%.
• As of yesterday, we here at Blue Seat Blogs are now a proud member of the Yard Barker network. You may have noticed the toolbar at the top of the page, and the added widget on the sidebar. We are very happy to be on board with Yard Barker

NHL Wants Something for Kovalchuk Deal

It seems like everyday, every hour, there is a tweet or a post or an article about the Ilya Kovalchuk saga. Now, the NHL is set to approve the 15 year, $100 million deal for Kovalchuk, but with a few conditions. As per Larry Brooks, who broke this last night, the NHL has two conditions for approving the Kovalchuk deal, and allowing the Marian Hossa and Roberto Luongo deals to stand.

1. That the cap hit on future multiyear contracts will not count any season that ends with the player over 40 years of age. The cap hit would be based on the average salary of the seasons in the contract up to age 40.

2. That the cap hit on future contracts longer than five years would be calculated by granting additional weight — perhaps the average — to the five consecutive years with the largest average salary.

Should the union not accept these terms, or if a negotiated deal is not reached by the Friday 5pm deadline, the league will reject the Kovalchuk deal, and look to decommission the Hossa and Luongo deals. Should the union agree, the aforementioned contracts, and presumably the other questionable contracts, will be grandfathered into the new agreement.

These two conditions are fair conditions, as it is rare that a player is effective, or even playing, at the age of forty. Sure, there are exceptions, but they are just that: exceptions to the rule. To put numbers to this, if Marc Staal were to sign a 20 year deal for $100 million, a deal expiring when Staal would turn 42, the original cap hit would be $5 million. Under the new stipulation, the cap hit would be $100 million over 18 years ($5.55 million), as the two years after 40 no longer apply to the cap hit.

The second stipulation is a bit more complicated. If the contract is front or back loaded in any way, then the cap hit would fluctuate based on the length and weight of the contract. Based on Brooks’ statement, it appears that the five heaviest years will have a higher cap hit than the rest of the contract. Using the hypothetical Staal example above, if the contract has a first five years of an annual $8 million salary, then the cap hit would be $8 million for the first first years, and $5.55 million for the remainder of the deal.

More analysis after the jump

A Bus Fit For A King; Andrew Yogan Notes

For his effort with the Garden of Dreams Foundation, the face of the Rangers, and all-world goalie Henrik Lundqvist has a New York City bus named after him yesterday afternoon. I was unable to attend, but good friend Nick Montemagno of Rangers Tribune was able to not only join, but found a way to interview The King himself. The interview can be found at Rangers Tribune. It’s good to see that professional bloggers like Nick can still find ways to get interviews with players, even if the organization doesn’t approve. Nick also had the privilege of interviewing Wayne Gretzky a while back, and always does a great job. Make sure you head over and read his brief interview.

Also, Draft America caught up with Peter Worrell, who coached Rangers 2010 4th round draft pick Andrew Yogan while he played in Florida for the Junior Panthers. Peter had some very kind words for Andrew:

“Andrew is one of those kids who’s just a naturally gifted goal-scorer. He has an ability that you cannot teach a player. He just knows how to put the puck in the net. He’s a big, strong kid… He has a real opportunity to be the first kid from this area to actually be an NHL player.”

Although HockeysFuture has Yogan projecting out as a checker in the NHL, it is good to see Yogan has a scoring touch. Yogan will be playing for the Erie Otters in the OHL next season, as he begins his career as a professional hockey player. Don’t forget to go to Draft America to check out the rest of the interview.

One last thing, I received an email about some Ranger greats appearing at Iona College on September 25. Here’s the information:

I thought you, and your followers, may be interested. Saturday, September 25th, Messier, Lemieux, Howe, Leetch, Graves, Hull and more will be at Iona College’s Mulcahy Gym at 10AM for ‘Steinerfest IV:Hockey Greats’, to meet fans and sign autographs. Admission is $10 and $5 for children 12 and under. Fans will be able to purchase player autographs, win raffle prinzes, participate in silent auctions, take pictures and more. Tickets can be purchased at Steiner Sports Store and at Last Licks locations.

That’s a hell of a crew headed to Iona for autographs. Each one alone is worth the admission.

Camp Depth, Defending Glen and Hartford Stacked.

Dave has begun to break down each specific area going into training camp but I can’t help wondering what kind of camp battle to expect amongst the forwards. With yesterday’s addition of Tim Kennedy the bottom 6 – already an area of ‘depth’ for the Rangers – got a whole lot more confusing. When you tally up the likely candidates vying for bottom 6 spots it’s hard impossible to see how they can all fit. Competition for jobs is one thing, having to go ‘top and tail’ with team mates at camp because there’s too many people for beds is quite another.

All the moves Sather has made to address forward depth make fans wonder if it’s all a pre-curser to a bigger move or just an attempt to throw mud at a wall and see what sticks. Todd White, Tim Kennedy, re-upping Byers, Prust and Dupont, bringing back Christensen, bringing in Boogaard;  all of these guys are likely fighting it out for jobs in the bottom 6 with Chris Drury, Sean Avery, Brian Boyle, Dale Weise and the prospects who may or may not be ready including Derek Stepan and Ethan Werek. How it plays out is anyone’s guess but without considering any unexpected standouts that’s already 13 names for 6 or 7 spots.

You have to wonder what the Rangers told Kennedy prior to his signing. It’s unlikely to be along the lines of ‘Hey, come in and compete with Brian Boyle for a job – sign here’ or he wouldn’t be here. The one-way contract he received firms up the notion he has a job. With the top 6 pretty much locked up (other than the positions for certain players such as Dubinsky and Prospal) it’s hard to see what Sather and Tortorella have in mind with all this quantity.

I refuse to criticise Sather for signing guys like Kennedy. He’s young, versatile, had a good AHL career, a solid college career and has upside. Given the contract he signed there’s no risk either. I don’t buy into some fans on twitter and various websites complaining about guys like Dane Byers not getting a chance because of ‘another Sather signing’. If Byers deserves a spot, if he blows away everyone at camp he’ll get a spot, I truly believe that. If he doesn’t earn it then he doesn’t deserve it. The best available players should be dressed in Rangers blue. If that’s Dane Byers, Tim Kennedy or another non draftee then so be it. In an ideal world the team would be full of Rangers picks but if the team is successful and it isn’t full of home grown picks big deal. Let the outcry begin if certain players get jobs and don’t deserve them until then there’s no point in crying about it.  

Another thing to consider is that part of a successful franchise is a successful farm system. We have seen a good Hartford side the past few years (last year being an exception) and no coincidence a regularly playoff bound Rangers team. It helps prospects who do begin their pro career in Hartford to begin it in a winning environment. As it stands right now, potentially there will be a lot of good players making the way to Hartford after camp and although some players may get moved or waived some will no doubt end up in Hartford. Derek Stepan, Evgeny Grachev and co. will only benefit by being involved in a good strong side.  

If Hartford features Dupont and Byers again, NHL’ers like Brian Boyle and even a guy like Todd White all complimenting Stepan, Grachev and guys like Kris Newbury and Jeremy Williams (good AHLer’s) then it promises to be an offensively impressive team. Think of the numbers Stepan and the kids may put up. Maybe a guy like Byers doesn’t make the NHL with New York but don’t underestimate these kind of guys impact on prospect development in the AHL. Some guys are worth ‘sacrificing’ if they can expedite a legitimate prospect. Look how Artem Anisimov benefited from PA Parenteau. For that reason alone PA deserves an applause when he comes to the MSG as a fish stick.

Rangers Sign Tim Kennedy

The Rangers have signed ex Sabres forward Tim Kennedy.

The 24 year old, 5’10 forward became a UFA after the Buffalo Sabres bought his deal out after accepting an arbitration award in the region of $1m earlier this summer.  Kennedy had a solid rookie year for the Sabres scoring 10 goals and 26 points and can play both left wing and center. Terms of the signing have yet to be disclosed but the deal has been reported on twitter by beat writers Andrew Gross and Steve Zipay.

The signing is by no means a bad one but an odd one. You have to assume that Kennedy would be a bottom 6 player for the Rangers, an area where the Rangers have an abundance both in New York and Hartford. Kennedy does have upside however, prior to his solid NHL rookie year he had an excellent year in the AHL where he put up 67 points for Portland.

Hockeys future had this to say about Kennedy:

His defensive zone play and willingness to take the body have remained strengths, and he showed good leadership ability with his college team.  Though not a pure scorer, he is an opportunistic and smart offensive player, with good fundamentals.

His signing is surely the final nail in the Brian Boyle coffin and Kennedy does seem to have offensive upside even if he doesn’t have natural goal scoring ability. Kennedy in NY also makes the future of players like Dane Byers murkier. After all, where can they all fit? While an odd signing at worst  this is another low risk high reward signing by Sather as Kennedy costs nothing but dollars and could surprise with his talent. Training camp competition just got a little more fierce.

Update (Dave): James Mirtle is reporting that the deal is a one year, one way deal at $550k. The Rangers now have 11 C/LW on the roster.

Training Camp Preview: Goalies

Training camp is just around the corner, and each Monday here at Blue Seat Blogs, I will be previewing each position in camp, including the incumbents, the new guys, and the guys just trying to make a name for themselves before being sent to Hartford. This week, we look at the only position that is (hopefully) set for the next two years at the NHL level, the goaltender position.

Henrik Lundqvist: The incumbent, current face of the franchise, and top-five goalie in the league. Lundqvist has been the backbone of the franchise in the post-lockout NHL, and will hopefully continue to do so for the next decade. In Lundqvist, the Rangers have one of the most consistent goalies in the league, who will most likely see his fare share of All-Star appearances and build upon his already three Vezina finalists. Last year, Lundqvist put up a record of 35-27-10, with a 2.38 GAA and a .921 SV%. With more rest coming, Lundqvist should be able to build on those numbers, and hopefully not burn out at the end of the season, like he has in the past few seasons due to starting 70 games a year.

Martin Biron: After last season’s debacle at the backup position, the Rangers identified that they need a capable, veteran backup that can spell Lundqvist for 20 games this season. Signed to a two year deal at $875,000 per year, Biron’s job may appear to be simple, but the Rangers haven’t had a capable (and consistent) backup since Kevin Weekes. If Biron can put together a .500 record, with a GAA under 3.00 for 20 games per year the next two years, then it will be the single most important signing of the offseason.

Chad Johnson: Johnson played well in his four games last season, putting up a 2.35 GAA, which is unfortunately overshadowed by the Rangers W-L record during his stint in net (1-2-1). There is simply no room for Johnson at the NHL level, but the Rangers are hoping he can put together a good camp, and carry the Hartford Wolfpack in net. Johnson struggled at the end of last season, but it may be due to jet/train lag from traveling to and from Hartford to go wherever the Rangers needed him to go. Dos-Nueve will likely start in Hartford, and hopefully can develop into a solid and reliable goalie. With the starting position seemingly filled for the next decade, Johnson is probably going to be best served as a trade chip.

Cameron Talbot: The recently signed Talbot is entering camp as the #4 goalie in the system. Talbot played for a very weak Alabama-Huntsville for three seasons, posting a solid final two seasons that led to the Rangers signing him. Talbot will definitely be in Hartford next year, probably serving as the backup for Chad Johnson. Talbot will likely be the first goalie in camp sent to Hartford, but he is definitely going to show up motivated. In the best case scenario, Talbot gives Johnson a run for his money, forcing the coaching staff to take a longer look at him before sending him to Hartford.

The goaltender position isn’t going to change much in the next few years, as Lundqvist will continue to be the backbone of the Rangers. It is the Rangers greatest strength, but can also be their greatest weakness if Biron doesn’t fulfill his duties. The backups and prospects will come and go, but when you have The King in net, you tend to look at goalie prospects as trade bait.

Sunday Link Dump

It’s Sunday again, and while I’m on the golf course, you can all enjoy these links:

Marc Staal’s agent Paul Krepelka says that Staal wants to be a Ranger, and that any report of an offer sheet is a baseless rumor. That’s good to hear, for now.

Kevin DeLury of New York Rangers Blog translated a Norwegian article stating that Mats Zuccarello-Aasen is ready for anything that comes his way, including a stint in the AHL.

Patrick Hoffman of Kukla’s Korner is featuring Bob Birge’s (of Patch.com) poem about our beloved Brian Leetch.

Puck Central is running a giveaway for a Steve Mason (Columbus goalie) autographed photo, make sure to enter.

The New York Daily News has a new Rangers beat writer, Jesse Spector. Good luck Jesse.

Second Blue Seat Fantasy Hockey League / New Kovy Contract

Well, the first fantasy hockey league filled up very quickly, so posted Mike created a second league. You can sign up by clicking here. I’m going to ask that if you signed up for the first league, that you do not sign up for the second league to ensure that everyone who wants to play can do so.

Also, in case you missed it, the NHL is currently reviewing another Ilya Kovalchuk contract submitted by the New Jersey Devils. This contract is a 15 year, $100 million contract, with a cap hit of $6,666,667 per year. I would assume this includes a no trade clause (not a no movement clause), but this hasn’t been made public yet.

One last thing, Paul Kariya will not be playing this year due to post-concussion syndrome. It looks like that hit by Scott Stevens in the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals is still having lingering affects.

Looking Ahead: Jesper Fasth

One of the great unknowns of the Rangers 2010 draft was Swedish winger Jesper Fasth. Many wondered what type of player the Rangers got and with limited exposure thus far, most people are still wondering the same thing.

It might be the dog days of the hockey season for the Rangers but Fasth’s season has already begun. Currently playing for Swedish men’s side HV71 in the European Trophy, Fasth has been playing on the 4th line but still managed to be quite productive grabbing 3 assists in 6 games including 2 in a recent 6-0 rout over Finnish side Karpart. Fasth’s season thus far also took in an under 20 tournament for Sweden where he went 1+1 in 4 games for the Swedes so the 18 year old winger has had a pretty solid start to his year.

So what type of player is the 6ft Fasth, who can play both wings? This is the scouting report from eliteprospects.com;

Fasth is a very good skater with nice acceleration and top speed. He works very hard, forechecks with impressive intensity and also create a lot of offense thanks to his agility and speed. Has decent hockey sense, technical skills and scoring ability, but it perhaps still more likely to develop into a role player.

It sounds like Fasth’s game is consistent with the desire for the Rangers to place an emphasis on speed and work ethic but in terms of scoring ability and skill level the young Swede appears to be a project. Its obvious that Fasth was picked with the long term in mind. He’ll be given all the time in the world to  develop in Sweden before the Rangers look at him as a serious, potential NHL candidate.

With many forward prospects close to being ready for the Rangers there is no need to rush the player. His good start this year playing with the HV71 men’s team at just 18 years old, Fasth appears to have a solid future. Drafted 157th overall there was also very little risk in this pick for the Rangers and lets not forget, the Rangers have had some pretty good success with drafting Swedes late……

Blue Seat Blogs Fantasy Hockey

It seems like there’s a lot of interest in playing in another year of Blue Seat Blogs fantasy hockey. I created the league on Yahoo. You can sign up by clicking here. It’s first come first serve for the league, and there’s a 12 team max. So be sure to sign up ASAP. For those who played last year, I added ‘Hits’ as a stat category this year, I want to try it out.

If the league is filled by the time you sign up, please leave a comment here. If there are enough people locked out, I will look for a volunteer to create a second league.

Update: Don’t forget to post here with your team name, so we know who is who. I’m The Boogyman.