The Gomez Deal: Cap Analysis

Well, we all know that the Scott Gomez to Montreal deal was a salary dump. But how much of a dump? Gomez has a $7.357 million cap hit through 2013-2014.

Chris Higgins, an RFA, made $1.9 million last season, and it’s safe to assume he has been qualified for that amount. Considering how much time he missed last season, and his output from his previous seasons, it’s safe to assume that $3 million will be the going rate for him.

Doug Janik, well, he’s a journeyman, he won’t be back next season, unless it’s as the 7th defenseman, the Rangers have too much defense anyway. He would come cheap at roughly $500,000 though. That’s what you want from a 7th defenseman.

Ryan McDonagh is in college, just finishing up his sophomore year at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He won’t be counting against the cap. I will be writing a prospect profile on him in the coming days.

Pavel Valentenko, well, if he comes to the US, he will start in Hartford. He bolted the AHL last year for the KHL, so it’s unlikely he will be back.

That’s a lot of words to just say this: The Rangers just gained $4 million in cap space*. They dealt from a strength (center) to fill a huge hole (LW), and they didn’t give up any prospects or current young NHLers. AND they freed up cap space. This trade was a huge win for Sather.

*-Actually number depends on the contract for Higgins, and if they sign Janik.

Just a note, I liked Gomez. I thought he would have done well under the Torts system with Avery and Callahan. But he was signed to be a leader, and he wasn’t leading, his contract was atrocious, and the Rangers needed to fill that hole. Good luck in Montreal Gomer.

As for the current lines, or my best guess at them:

Higgins-Drury-Zherdev
Avery-Dubinsky-Callahan
Korpikoski-Anisimov-
Byers-Boyle-Owens

Voros

Staal-Girardi
Rozsival-Redden
Gilroy-

Hank
Vally

Clearly, the Rangers have a need for a RW. They can go the RFA route (Drew Stafford, Ryan Clowe), the UFA route (Hossa, Kovalev, Knuble), the trade route (insert wild trade scenario here), or just see if they have someone in the system (Greg Moore, Dale Weise).

Personally, I would love to see Clowe in Ranger blue. But I don’t think the RFA route is a viable option. Without that 3rd round pick (used on Brian Boyle), the Rangers don’t have enough compensation for any RFAs (for more details, check the Cap Page).

My guess? Knuble, 1 year-$2.5 million.

As for that defense spot, it’s probably going to be one of Sauer / Potter / Sanguinetti.

All in all, it’s nice to have some cap room, eh?

Oh, almost forgot. The Rangers now have enough room to go after Hossa, and still keep Staal, Dubie and Cally long term.

Gomez for Higgins (UPDATE: Heatley (NOT) on his way)

That will shed some salary.

Wow. Way to go Slats.

More later, I’ll analyze the finances.

Guess this means no Heatley. Dubi stays for now.
Update 5:25pm: Details are in:

To Mtl: Gomez, Tom Pyatt, Mike Busto
To NYR: Higgins, Ryan McDonagh, Pavel Valentenko, Doug Janik

Salary dump, and a steal of one. Wow. Great job Slats.

Update 5:30pm: McDonagh was Montreal’s 1st round pick in 2007.

Update 5:35pm: Doug Janik in the deal too. Oh, and the details are on TSN, duh.

Update 5:53pm: Carp is reporting that Heatley is on his way (thanks Mike):

UPDATED, 5:31 P.M.: I’ve been told that Heatley is coming to the Rangers tonight. Not sure what the Rangers are giving up to get him, but they can fit him under the cap now.

Update 6:15pm: Lost in all this is the Rangers getting McDonagh, who was the Canadians best prospect. Sather absolutely fleeced Montreal.

Update 6:20pm: Expect more wheelin and dealin:

GLEN SATHER:

“We’ve got lots of cap room now, and it opens lots of options.”

Thinks Higgins will be a goal-scorer … was hurt three times last year. Likes the other two kids as future NHL players, too.

“Torts has talked about the young guys all year and we wanted to make some room for them, and we did.”

“Since this deal happened I’ve had three calls (from other teams), and it doesn’t take long for people to realize you’re going to make some changes.”

Update 8:50pm: It looks like the wheelin and dealin was just the Gomez deal. Doesn’t look like Heatley is coming to New York. I would rather the Rangers spend the cap space on a free agent scorer instead of dealing for one.

Just imagine how much more cap room they would have if they didn’t sign Redden. Sigh.

Heatley Rumors, Again

This time with players:

The possible scenarios: Rozsival-Dubinsky, a high-draft pick and a prospect; Zherdev-Dubinsky and a high pick. The Rangers apparently do not want to include Staal or Ryan Callahan or take any other player back, given the Heatley cap hit.

As already mentioned, the Sens have until midnight tonight before Heatley is due his bonus of $4 million. Expect him to be dealt soon. If he’s not dealt before tomorrow, he will not be dealt, period.

Before you get too emotional with dealing Dubinsky, ask yourself this question: Are the Rangers a better team after the trade?

The answer, is yes. They are, end of story. I really like Dubinsky, but to get Heatley, sorry kid, but adios. I may as well put this here, because I’m bound to get a text from my friend…sorry Becky. Your crush may head to Ottawa.

I like the Rozsival/Dubinsky deal more than the Zherdev/Dubinsky deal, because the Ranger have a big strength in both center depth and defense depth. The first rule of thumb when making a trade is to deal from a strength to fill a weakness.

Update 3:45pm: Forgot to add that I would prefer Girardi head over instead of Dubinsky, but I’m the only person who thinks that Girardi is expendable.

Rangers Sign Chris Chappell

As per Andrew Gross, the Rangers have come to terms with LW Chris Chappell, who was in camp as a non-roster invitee. Chappell is a big boy, at 6′4 209 lbs, and played for Saginaw of the OHL last season, putting up 38-38-76, with 88 PIMS (8 fights) in 68 games, while serving as the team captain.

There’s not much of a scouting report available for him, and I’m surprised that, with those numbers and that size, that he wasn’t drafted. Maybe his skating was called into question? But to that, I say if he’s surviving a Torts boot camp, then he should be just fine.

Diamond in the rough maybe?

Setting the Cally/Dubi Market?

The Chicago Blackhawks resigned C Dave Bolland to a 5 year, $16.875 million contract yesterday, an average of $3.375 million for the life of the contract. Bolland, a 2004 2nd round draft pick, and 2nd line center for the Hawks, put up 19-28-47 last season, and made $887,000. That’s almost a 400% increase on his salary (380% to be exact). That’s a whole lotta coin.

But who cares about the Blackhawks signings? Really? I mean, it doesn’t affect the Rangers.

Au contraire, mon frère. This has a lot to do with the Rangers.

Brandon Dubinsky put up 13-28-41 last season, and made $635,000. Ryan Callahan put up 22-18-40, and made $600,000. Gee, those numbers look awfully similar.

The Dave Bolland signing has set the market for Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. The Bolland contract is where both of their agents will make their initial demands. You may argue that because Bolland made more, he was set to earn more in an extension. Sure, let’s take that into effect, and just use the percentage increase on his salary as the starting point.

Dubinsky – $635,000 * 3.8 = $2.413 million.
Callahan – $600,000 * 3.8 = $2.28 million.

Will the Dubi/Cally combo make the $3.375 million a year that Bolland is making? Doubtful, Sather is known for low balling his RFAs. But I’ll tell you this, $2-$2.5 million each is now looking more and more like the definite possibility.

Another aspect of the Bolland signing, offer sheets presented to either Dubi or Cally can be around that much as well. The compensation for a contract that size? A 1st and 3rd round pick.

Personally, neither of them are worth $3.375 million as of yet, but $2.5 million is definitely worth it. If they sign an offer sheet for $3.375 million, take the picks and let them go. Other than that, expect the $2.5 million cap hit each.

TSN: Rangers in Final Two for Heatley

TSN is reporting that the disgruntled Sens winger’s choices are down to two: the Rangers and the Oilers. With midnight tonight being the deadline to trade Heatley before his $4 million bonus is paid, you should expect some more heavy rumors involving Heatley right up to the very end. If the Sens can’t trade him, and pay the $4 million bonus, you can guarantee that he will not be moved. Ottawa right now believes they can get a Chris Pronger-esque package for Heatley, but what GM Bryan Murray fails to realize is that Pronger didn’t have $4 million coming to him at July 1. Very few teams can afford to take that hit.

Salary will have to go to the Sens to get the deal done, and Gomez or Rozsival will likely be heading the other way IF the deal gets done. It’s also safe to assume two of Korpo/Sangs/Cally/Dubi/Grachev/AA/DZ will be headed over, with some draft picks exchanging hands. There are too many different rumors of players involved for Heatley, so I’m just going to post on what it would definitely cost them. I guess I’m going to upgrade this from irresponsible rumormongoring to responsible rumormongoring.

Torts: Hank’s the Only Guarantee

John Tortorella is setting the mood for his first full season as Rangers head coach:

As far as the lines are concerned, as far as the makeup of our team, from Scott Gomez right on down, the only guy I know is gonna be there is Hank. He’s gonna be our starting goalie. But other than that, it’s wide open. And I’m not afraid of youth. It’s going to be done on merit.

Make fun of that statement all you want, but it’s good to know that everyone is going to be held accountable for their actions AND their play. Play like crap, sit on the bench. I love it. Not afraid of youth? Amazing.

We got two hot meals a day, we got a great practice facility, we got limos flying all over the place, we got New York City, the theaters, I need this, I need that,” he said. “It’s time to put your hand, instead of asking for more, take it away and start getting things done.

Sheriff Tortorella is in town, and is also an Olympian.

Boyle Means Goodbye to Betts, Orr

With the recent acquisition of Brian Boyle from the LA Kings, for a 2010 3rd round pick, the Rangers acquired a very big center that can fight, and presumably skate. I say presumably because I really don’t know much on him. What I do know is that Boyle is 6′7 250 lbs, and is just a beast. He may have a little bit of an offensive touch to him, he put up decent numbers in the AHL for a fighter. This pickup also gives the Rangers their very own 2003 first round pick, so now they are not the only team in the NHL that didn’t have a 2003 first rounder play in the NHL.

With this trade, the Rangers are tipping their hand at their offseason plans. It is known that Fred Sjostrom was not qualified as an RFA, and that Colton Orr was not being pursued at the moment for next season. Boyle can replace Orr as the fighter, so no big deal there. As much as I love Orr, he is replaceable. Orr will get considerable interest from a lot of NHL teams, after making incredible improvements in his skating last season. What I don’t like here is that Boyle also replaces Blair Betts as the fourth line center. It’s tough to watch the best penalty killing unit in the NHL not get resigned, but I guess that’s hockey.

The more you think about it, the more you realize that there is no way Betts was going to be back next season. Superb on the kill he may be, but he has little offensive talent, and saw a dramatic decrease in playing time under the John Tortorella regime. It’s safe to assume that Betts wants more playing time, maybe even on a third line (or a team that rolls four lines….Edmonton).

I don’t know if a 4th line of (insert LW)-Boyle-Jordan Owens is an upgrade over Orr-Betts-Sjostrom. It depends on how effective the new guys are on the PK, and if they can actually net a few goals.

But, I guess it’s time to say goodbye to Colton Orr, Blair Betts, and Fred Sjostrom. And it’s also time to give a big thank you to Sjostrom and Betts, talking about a fantastic PK tandem.

Prospect Camp Participants

Rangers rookie camp starts today, and the Blueshirts will have 26 players, of which 16 the Rangers own the rights to, attending camp. Five of the seven draftees from the 2009 draft will also take part in camp (non-roster invitees in italics:

Forwards:
Ryan Bourque, Max Campbell, Paul Crowder, Evgeny Grachev, Chris Kreider, Justin Soryal, Derek Stepan, Ethan Werek, Chris Chappell, Craig Cunningham, Trent Daavettila, Matt Maccarone, Luke Pither

Defense:
Michael Del Zotto, Tysen Dowzak, Mitch Gaulton, Matt Gilroy, Ilkka Heikkinen, Tomas Kundratek, Daniel Maggio, Luke Curadi, Samuel Klassen

Goalies:
Scott Stajcer, Keith Kincaid, Ben Scrivens, Travis Yonkman

Interesting to note that Bobby Sanguinetti isn’t in camp this year, same with Michael Sauer.

2009 Draft Review

Well, it’s about time I reviewed the draft. It’s been a busy weekend, and the sun being out all weekend has made it impossible to do a decent blog entry. Sorry, but the sun > blogging.

Anyway, let’s go through each of the picks:

1st Round (19th overall) – Chris Kreider, Center, Andover Academy
As touched on earlier, the kid is real fast, probably faster than a lot of NHLers at this point, and his speed is definitely his calling card. He isn’t small, at 6′2 200 lbs, so being able to package size and speed is rare. He can dangle with the best of them, even at top speed. He is tearing up Division I High School Prep, putting up 96 points in two seasons.

The knock on him is that he hasn’t seen any real competition at his current level, so the numbers may be incredibly skewed. The kid is a project, as he is committed to Boston College for the 2010-2011 season (he still has a year of high school left), and has a lot of raw talent that needs to be honed into hockey skills, specifically playing to his size, and his defensive zone abilities.

I’m not sure how I feel about this pick. The kid probably has the highest ceiling of the mid-first round picks, but as already stated, he is a big project, and won’t be in the NHL for at least four years. He will spend a year in HS, a year at BC, and maybe will come over to the AHL after his freshman year. To be honest, that’s not what the Rangers needed right now. They need someone who can be an impact within two seasons, not four.

I compare this pick to the Blake Wheeler pick by the Coyotes in 2004. Questionable at best, but could have high rewards, if he remains with the organization. Personally, I would have preferred they pick Jordan Schroeder, an initial top-10 pick who slipped all the way to #22.

2nd Round, 47th Overall, Ethan Werek, Center, Kingston (OHL)
Werek is a blue collar guy with an offense touch. A slow accelerator when skating, but once he gets going, he has decent speed. He put up 64 points (32 goals) in 62 games with Kingston of the OHL in his rookie season. He gets his goals by crashing the net and looking for rebounds, something that the current Ranger team is lacking. He is 6′0, 190 lbs, so he still has room to grow, but needs to learn how to utilize his size to better position himself on both sides of the puck. Like most young kids, his defensive game needs work, as does his discipline.

Werek is at least three seasons from the NHL.

3rd Round, 80th Overall, Ryan Bourque, C/LW, USA U-18 Team
Yes, this is Ray Bourque’s son. So he has the pedigree working for him. Ryan was one of the top players on the U-18 USA team, putting up 43 points in his first year. He has limited size (5′8, 165 lbs), but never quits and is definitely another blue-collar guy who plays hard in front of the net. He has a lot of skill, speed, and creativity, but it does not translate into making those around him better. A great work ethic and team-first attitude, which is definitely something he learned from his father.

Ryan is committed to the QMJHL next season.

5th Round, 127th Overall, Roman Horak, Center, Czech Extraliga
The 6′0 189 lb center from the Czech Republic, averaged roughly a point per game in his first two seasons (2007-2008, 2008-2009) in the Czech U-20 league, but was held pointless in 8 games at the elite level. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, he’s just 18.

There isn’t much available about the mystery Czech, other than what’s available from Hockeys Future:

Horak has a lot of offensive skill and breakaway speed, but the rest of his game needs work. He doesn’t put in much effort when he doesn’t have the puck.

Lots of skill, no work ethic. It’s a 5th round pick, I guess if he had a work ethic, he would have been drafted higher. This is a very hit-or-miss draft pick.

5th Round, 140th Overall, Scott Stajcer, Goalie, Owen Sound Attack (OHL)
Stajcer went 15-15, with a 3.05 GAA and a .906 SV% in his rookie season with the Owen Sound Attack. The 6′3 goalie’s numbers shouldn’t scare you away, as his team was awful on the defensive side of the puck. He improved greatly as the season progressed, and thus salvaged a .500 record for himself. He participated in the CHL Top Prospects game this year, and while he has the desired size of an NHL goalie, he needs to work on his positioning to be an effective NHL goalie.

6th Round, 170th Overall, Daniel Maggio, Defense, Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
The Rangers brass loves themselves some OHL defensemen, but Maggio is different from the most recent OHL defensemen picks of the Rangers. Maggio is a stay-at-home defenseman, putting up 36 points in 108 games with Sudbury in two seasons. He is a fighter, putting up 156 PIMS in those 108 games. There’s not much else on him.

7th Round, 200th overall, Mihail Pashnin, Defense, Russia
The name Mihail Pashnin should sound familiar, as he was the #1 overall pick in the 2009 KHL draft. He is just 5′9, and put up 16 points in 32 games with his Russian (not KHL) team last season. He put up two assists and a +6 in 7 games at the U20 Worlds this year.

This was probably the best value pick the Rangers made. If he comes over to North America after finishing up his two years in the KHL, he should make the roster and be an effective player.

Overall Thoughts: The Rangers definitely addressed their need for forward prospects and a decent goalie prospect in the draft, but the Kreider pick is definitely a gigantic question mark for a lot of people. He will not help the Rangers in the immediate future, and probably not until 2013. The Stajcer and Pashnin picks were great value picks, as Stajcer’s team hurt his stats, thus hurting his draft position, and Pashnin’s KHL contract hurt his NHL draft position.

Back to Kreider, the kid has a lot of talent, and definitely merited a first round selection, but the issue here is that the Rangers need immediate help. Kreider will definitely be an effective NHL player, but when remains to be the question.

If I had to grade the draft, I’d give it a C+. Not terrible, addressed some needs, but left the glaring hole of an immediate help to the lack of scoring.