Setting the Cally/Dubi Market?

The Chicago Blackhawks resigned C Dave Bolland to a 5 year, $16.875 million contract yesterday, an average of $3.375 million for the life of the contract. Bolland, a 2004 2nd round draft pick, and 2nd line center for the Hawks, put up 19-28-47 last season, and made $887,000. That’s almost a 400% increase on his salary (380% to be exact). That’s a whole lotta coin.

But who cares about the Blackhawks signings? Really? I mean, it doesn’t affect the Rangers.

Au contraire, mon frère. This has a lot to do with the Rangers.

Brandon Dubinsky put up 13-28-41 last season, and made $635,000. Ryan Callahan put up 22-18-40, and made $600,000. Gee, those numbers look awfully similar.

The Dave Bolland signing has set the market for Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. The Bolland contract is where both of their agents will make their initial demands. You may argue that because Bolland made more, he was set to earn more in an extension. Sure, let’s take that into effect, and just use the percentage increase on his salary as the starting point.

Dubinsky – $635,000 * 3.8 = $2.413 million.
Callahan – $600,000 * 3.8 = $2.28 million.

Will the Dubi/Cally combo make the $3.375 million a year that Bolland is making? Doubtful, Sather is known for low balling his RFAs. But I’ll tell you this, $2-$2.5 million each is now looking more and more like the definite possibility.

Another aspect of the Bolland signing, offer sheets presented to either Dubi or Cally can be around that much as well. The compensation for a contract that size? A 1st and 3rd round pick.

Personally, neither of them are worth $3.375 million as of yet, but $2.5 million is definitely worth it. If they sign an offer sheet for $3.375 million, take the picks and let them go. Other than that, expect the $2.5 million cap hit each.

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categories Analysis | Dave, 30 Jun 09

11 Comments

  • By NYRjurgenno88, June 30, 2009 @ 12:17 pm

    surely a more accurate comaprison for Cally is the contract McLeod(?) signed wiht Colorado? had his best year where i think he hit 20 goals and plays a similar style game and he got 1.5 i think… thats what Cally deserves as lets be honest as great as he is, only a hot streak at the end got him his FIRST 20 goal season. if one 20 goal season gets you 2.5m+ its asad day in the NHL. Chicago drastically overpaid for Bolland. Whether its overpaid in 3 years, thats another arguement.

    Reply

    Dave Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    Overpaid or not, it sets the market. Unfortunately, in sports, market value is set by the contracts for this current year, not ones signed in previous years. By Chicago overpaying, it can be used as leverage by Cally’s and Dubi’s agents.

    Reply

    NYRjurgenno88 Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 12:26 pm

    Dave, i do agree but thats my point; the agent will point to Bolland (which is over the market value if you look at comparables) and the Rangers will point to McLeod as a comparable. Hopefully Cally will sign for a reasonable amount. MY question is this; worst case scenario – a club offers him 3.5+ (like Bolland)… do you then take the compensation pick which ithink then is a 1st rounder (3m+?)

    I for one love Cally and want to keep him but he needs to realise one year doesnt make a career.

    Reply

    Dave Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

    True, and that’s where the negotiations begin, it’s safe to assume that $2 million – $2.5 million will be the figure they sign for, but it could have been less without the Bolland contract.

    If they sign an offer sheet in excess of $3.1 million, I say let them walk, and take the compensatino (1st and 3rd rounder)

    Reply

  • By NYRjurgenno88, June 30, 2009 @ 1:03 pm

    Dave, agree… if its a 1st AND a 3rd for a 3.1m offer sheet then you definitely have to take it; hard choice but you cannot handicap yourself to that kind of contract to players who are still developing.

    i’m not happy withthe Chicago deal and hopefully it it wont impact TOO much. I’d be happy if they both get 2m/yr…. which i think is more than fair seeing as its almost 4 times their last contracts. fingers crossed.

    Reply

    Dave Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 1:07 pm

    Anything over $2.6 million is a 1st and a 3rd (details on the Understanding the Cap page). I would still retain them at $2.6, but anything higher is pushing it.

    Reply

    NYRjurgenno88 Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

    yeah, i think that would be my max offer too. Problem is, you never know what Sather is thinking!

    atleast he admitted the other day the rangers had to have more emphasis on youth… whether he follows his words with actions is another matter.

    A thought for you; as a depth D man, if you could get Jay McKee for around 1m after his buyout would you do it? maybe a great guy to pair someone like Gilroy with???
    He seems healthy and almost always has a nice +/- so is responsible defesnively and he does the dirty things well like blocking shots. HE could be a nice depth signing.

    Reply

    Dave Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    Not at $1 million. If they sign a defenseman, I would prefer a big, physical, solid stay-at-homer. A Komisarek type, but not necessarily him.

    Remember, they already have Redden, Rozsival, Staal and Girardi, and have Gilroy, Sanguinetti, Potter and Sauer all vying for spots this year.

    Reply

  • By NYRjurgenno88, June 30, 2009 @ 2:35 pm

    Dave, but McKee is a stay at homer. He does everythign simply but with limited mistakes, block shots, plays the body and is very sensible in his play. Add to that he’s been released via buy out he could be had for very cheap. exactly what we want. I’d love Komisarek too but he’s going to get way more money than he should thanks to supply and demand! i’d be all for giving Sauer a full year but we may have too inexperienced a back line as it is with Gilroy etc…

    Reply

    Dave Reply:
    June 30th, 2009 at 2:54 pm

    I was more so aiming at the fact that McKee isn’t the physical defenseman that the team needs. Yes, he’s defensively sound, but he’s not a big physical guy.

    I should have been more clear, my bad. I want a defenseman who plays like Komisarek, hits people, clears the net, etc.

    Reply

  • By NYRjurgenno88, June 30, 2009 @ 3:36 pm

    fair enough. in that case the best option maybe Ohlund as hen can provide a bit of offense as well but he may be too expensive. Its a shame because there’s a few in the system that can fill that need i just dont think they are NHL ready (Dowzek) or Sauer (ready for full time?)…

    Reply

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