Puck Prospectus: Understanding GVT

Tom Awad over at Puck Prospectus, who are insanely good with numbers, have developed a metric to help better analyze a player’s worth, called GVT (Goals Versus Threshold). This metric, much like sabremetrics that have taken a hold on baseball analysis, uses many different components, and is often very confusing. Before you ask “Who the hell is Tom Awad and what is Puck Prospectus?”, go over to ESPN and look at both their baseball and hockey sections, and you’ll see that ESPN references these guys left-and-right. They are the creme-de-la-creme of what they do, and understanding GVT will definitely help you in the long run, as metrics are sure to come to play in the NHL.

Some key points of GVT:

GVT is measured in goals. This makes it a convenient unit that hockey fans are already comfortable with.

GVT has built-in accounting. The sum of player GVTs on a team equals that team’s GVT plus the replacement level. This is essential, as player statistics often come with caveats. “Kovalchuk scored 43 goals, but he doesn’t play defense and his team isn’t good”. This makes it much easier to measure “how good would this team be replacing player A with player B?” It is also essential in that player success is correlated with team success, which after all is the entire point of the sport.

According to Tom, GVT is easily comparable to the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) stat in baseball, which is an all-encompassing stat that simply states how many runs more per season a player is worth over the average replacement at that level.

Go over to Puck Prospectus and read the article. It is definitely worth your time.

Rangers in Talks with Dubinsky

In other not-so-surprising moves, the Rangers are in talks with Brandon Dubinsky’s agent:

The Post has learned the team is in conversations with Dubinsky’s representative regarding contracts of varying lengths, though neither party would characterize the state of the discussions that will accelerate upon the conclusion of Zherdev’s final 96 hours.

This really shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. If Dubinsky was going to sign an offer sheet, he would have done so already. This is more of a formality, as Dubinsky will definitely be in Ranger Blue next season, and hopefully a few seasons down the road. He is a cost-controlled 3rd line center with the potential to be the 1st line center for this team, something the Rangers sorely need.

MSG Unit Spins Off, Zherdev Hearing Today

Sorry for the lack of updates yesterday, I was running around all day and didn’t have a change to put up a post.

In what should have been an expected move, Cablevision spun off the MSG Unit into its own entity. James Dolan will still be in charge of this unit, so no “reprieve” there. I put reprieve in quotes, because you really have to be careful what you wish for (see post below for details). This doesn’t mean much for the Rangers, it’s just a re-arrangement of the businesses themselves. I don’t know if there’s going to be a stock offering on the MSG Unit, I doubt it though.

Wow I ran off topic.

Anyway, the moral of the story here is that it doesn’t affect the Rangers at all.

Today is the long-awaited Nikolai Zherdev arbitration hearing. By the end of the day we should know what the Rangers will do with Zherdev. My guess, he gets awarded $3.85 million, the Rangers accept. As for the next step, I believe Zherdev will accept too, and Zherdev will at least be given a shot to prove his worth. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Zherdev involved in a deadline deal somewhere.

Oh, and for all of you wanting the 39 year old Sergei Zubov back in blue, sorry, but he signed with the KHL.

Rangers Sale Still a Possibility

Slap Shot (The NY Times Blog) is noting that with Cablevision set to announce its second quarter earnings tomorrow, there is a possibility the company will have to field questions about a potential spin-off of the Madison Square Garden unit (including the Garden, Knicks, Rangers, Liberty, and others). Any talk currently is still pure speculation, but the Dolan’s preference is probably to hold on to the unit and spin off Cablevision itself:

There are forces inside Cablevision that have actively sought a breakup of the company with the Garden unit spun off, but they have yet to convince the Dolan family, who still have controlling interest in Cablevision and an emotional stake in the Garden that this is the way to go. If forced to, it seems the Dolans would prefer to just take the Garden unit away from Cablevision and continue their control of it on their own.

There are two ways to look at this. With the $550 million sale of the Canadiens in the middle of a recession, the MSG unit can probably fetch about at least double, and probably triple, because it includes the Knicks (trying to refrain from jokes….), the MSG Networks themselves, Radio City, and other theaters. The Dolan’s could be lured by that figure and spin the unit off.

The other way to look at it is from the quote above, which could either be the best news or the worst news. Are the Dolans’ the best owners in the world? No, definitely not, not even close. They don’t monitor their upper level front office, thus making some GMs’, that shall remain nameless, jobs more secure than they really should have been. That’s not necessarily the calling card of a bad owner, just a negligent one.

But I will tell you this, they are always willing to spend money to make their teams successful. Spending it in the right way is a totally different story, and has nothing to do with the Dolans. Will any new owner be willing to spend right up to the cap every year to improve the team? Considering it’s New York, you have to assume yes, but you never know. Ranger fans calling for the Dolans’ to sell could get exactly what they wish for, and regret it for years to come.

When it comes to the Dolans, and the possibility of new owners, sometimes the evil you know is better than the evil you don’t.

Amonte a US Hall-of-Famer

Former Ranger, and one of my favorites, Tony Amonte was elected to the US Hockey HOF, joining John Leclair and Tom Barrasso in the 2009 class. Amonte had two very successful seasons with the Rangers before being shipped to Chicago in the deal that brought Stephane Matteau and Brian Noonan to NY, putting up 35-34-69 and 33-43-76.

Other than Mike York, who went on to nothing following his departure from NY, Amonte was the last Ranger rookie to really be a consistently legitimate scoring threat every time he touched the ice. Kudos to him, Leclair and Barrasso.

From the WTF Department

It’s Cindy’s day with the Cup, and naturally, he’s bringing it back to his hometown. That’s rather normal, except for what the town’s planning:

Organizers say they are also planning a hall of fame dedicated to Crosby that will include the famous dented clothes dryer the forward used as target practice in his parent’s basement.

Really? A hall of fame for Cindy? Hasn’t this gone far enough?

Artem Anisimov Interview

The guys over at NYRangerscast did an interview with prospect, and soon to be Rangers center, Artem Anisimov. They did a great job, and you should definitely head over there to check it out.

U-20 Rosters Set

The guys at Beyond the Blueshirts have the inside scoop on the rosters for the USA/Russia U-20 four-game series to be played in Lake Placid this year. The US roster has three Ranger prospects participating: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan, and Ryan Bourque. Kreider, the Rangers 1st round pick in 2009, and Stepan, the Rangers 2nd round pick in 2008, will both be participating in their first U-20 tryout. This will be Ryan Bourque’s (2009 3rd rounder) second go-round with the club.

It will be interesting to see how Kreider, who has never played against this level of competition before, fairs in this tryout. He is definitely skilled, but hasn’t had the chance to showcase it against all-world talent his age.

Notably left off the Russian team was OHL rookie of the year, and Rangers prospect-extraordinaire, Evgeny Grachev. This definitely wasn’t a slight to Grachev, and the logical reasoning is that the Rangers requested he be left off the roster for fear of injury, which really shouldn’t surprise anyone. I guess this means the club believes that Grachev may actually have a shot at making the big club next season. Personally, I think he goes to the OHL for another season, and then may actually spend a year in the AHL. No need to rush him.

The Death of the Decade-Long Deal?

Famed GM Brian Burke, now with the Toronto Maple Leafs, is calling for an end, or more scrutiny, of these absurd long term deals that GMs are handing out. There are obvious perks behind these deals, as I detailed in a previous post. Burke at least wants the new CBA (to be negotiated in 2012) to have a limit on the length of contracts, or at least have some scrutiny behind such long-term deals:

“We absolutely need to look at term limits,” Burke told THN.com Friday afternoon, before embarking on a week-long west coast vacation with his wife. “I personally do not believe some players have any intention of fulfilling some of these long-term contracts.”

While I don’t think anyone expects Chris Pronger to play until he’s 42 (remember, he’s Pronger, not Chelios), Burke does bring up a valid point. There’s nothing inherently wrong with the deals these players are signing, but it is a big loophole in the system, and it makes the salary cap look like a joke. Personally, I think it’s ridiculous to sign a player for 15 years, but that’s because of the risk involved in signing a player for the better part of two decades.

With the current CBA set to expire in 2012, you can bet that some GMs will make a push to put some kind of restriction on these long term deals. It will be a hotly contested issue though, as teams like Detroit and Washington, who used these deals to lock up franchise players like Zetterberg, Franzen, and Ovechkin, all players that the teams drafted and developed on their own. The issue seems to heat up when teams are poaching UFAs for these deals, according to Tom Benjamin, who believes that teams like Philadelphia and Chicago are circumventing the system when signing Pronger and Hossa. The issue really comes to a boil when discussing Pronger, who’s extension doesn’t kick in until he’s 35. But since Pronger signed the deal before he reached the magic number, Philly isn’t on the hook for the entire salary cap hit.

Burke and Benjamin aren’t the only ones who believe some major CBA shakeup is in the works for 2012. Adam Proteau of THN believes it’s inevitable. The issue is hotly debated amongst the NHL owners, GMs, and Gary Bettman. It is almost a foregone conclusion that there will be a restriction next year.

Personally, the issue seems to stem from signing players to deals that expire in their mid 40s. I personally don’t believe the NHLPA will agree to a restriction on length of deals, but may agree to a provision much like the 35+ clause in the current CBA. Let’s say that any player signed to a contract longer than, say five years, that extends past the players’ 38th birthday, the cap hit cannot be removed by player retirement or passing through waivers.

Clearly the verbiage needs work, but you get the general idea. Think that would work?

Naslund: I Liked New York

Jim Jamieson of The Province caught up with the forever-class-act Markus Naslund to discuss his career, his family, and his retirement. His time with the Rangers was addressed, and Naslund had nothing but great words for the organization:

Q: When you signed with the Rangers year ago, had you made a decision it was time for a change or were you still open to returning to the Canucks?

A: I hadn’t made a decision prior to July 1. I was still talking with Mike (Canucks GM Gillis). I was hoping and expecting to have a choice about coming back. But after July came around, more and more I had the feeling it wasn’t meant to be and it was time for a change. Looking back, it was probably the right thing. I had a great time in New York. I was treated like a king there.

Q: Was being in a secondary role in New York a relief in some ways?

A: It was good for me to go to New York and not be the focal point and not have that media attention. I felt I could relax a bit.

While Naslund didn’t live up to some people’s expectations last season, he definitely exceeded mine. I had him penciled in for 15-20-35 while leading the kids. He did all that, and even chipped in ten extra goals to lead the team in that department (sad when the leading scorer put up 24 goals).

Brian Burke offered him a scouting job, it’ll be interesting to see how he would do in that role.