Dubinsky Talks with Steve Zipay

After their morning skate, Steve Zipay caught up with the still unsigned Brandon Dubinsky and talked about his future. I’m not going to rehash the entire thing here, but the one thing I noticed was he hesitated when asked if he was ready to play for the qualifying offer of $698,000.

I mention this because while we all yell at Glen Sather for not signing Dubinsky, negotiations are a two-way street. I wonder what his camp is asking for in terms of a contract. Personally, I feel giving him a contract on par with Ryan Callahan’s, while it may be overpaying a bit, is worth it. Spending $9 million on your top two centers balances out the Chris Drury contract.

Of course, you have to consider the length of the deal too, in which you may see Dubinsky get fewer years and less money to still be arbitration eligible, which appears to be what he wants. Then again, the exact opposite could happen, with Dubinsky getting a three or four year deal for a higher average payout than what we expected, to buy out those arbitration years.

So basically, to sum up, no one knows anything.

NHLPA’s Paul Kelly Fired

NHLPA Executive Director Paul Kelly has been fired by the NHLPA Board of Directors. Kelly was rumored to be distant with some of the players in the union and was too close with commissioner Gary Bettman, which led to his demise.

No word on who his replacement will be.

Update 4:50pm: Ian Perry is the new Executive Director.

Donald Brashear is Necessary

On July 1, when the news broke that the Rangers signed Donald Brashear, I was outraged. How could they sign they guy who decapitated Blair Betts? It was the clearest sign that the Rangers organization was in the midst of another huge roster turnover, and most fans were furious that it started with the hated winger. But then I started to really think about Brashear’s place on the team, and moves other teams in the conference made prior to the signing.

The biggest (literally) problem in the Atlantic Division right now is Chris Pronger. The Rangers were fortunate that they only needed to face him once or twice a season when he was in the West, but now they have to face him six times a year. He solidifies that Flyer blue line, and will provide an intimidating presence, especially the first time he lays out Marian Gaborik on the rush. So what would prevent him from taking a run at Gaborik? The looming presence of probably the most feared fighter in the game, Donald Brashear.

What about the Toronto Maple Leafs, who committed to ex-Ranger Colton Orr for four years? GM Brian Burke is on the record stating he wants his team to start hitting and fighting more. You can bet your house that Orr’s PIMS will increase next year, definitely eclipsing the 200 minute mark. Who will step up for the Rangers when Orr fulfills Burke’s wishes, and starts with one of the Rangers? Donald Brashear.

The Islanders? Brendan Witt. Devils? David Clarkson. Penguins? Eric Godard.

The East, and specifically the Atlantic Division, is filled with tough enforcers, who will mess with the Rangers high priced talent if not kept in check. Of all these enforcers, the most feared in the league is Donald Brashear, and now he’s a Ranger. He is no longer our problem, he is now the rest of the division’s problem. Having the threat of Brashear on the bench is much more effective than Orr on the ice. Remember, Brashear will be on the 4th line, and maybe getting five minutes a game with John Tortorella at the helm.

You don’t have to love the guy, but you should be cheering for him, he is a Ranger for the next two years. The first time you see Brashear knock out Pronger, he will win everyone over.

Drury Gets Little League Hall Nod

Ranger captain Chris Drury was elected to the Little League Hall of Excellence yesterday, for his performance while pitching for 1989 champion Trumball, CT. Drury, one of the more decorated Rangers (Little league World Series champion, Hobey Baker winner, silver medal, Stanley Cup), said it was one of the greatest weeks of his life.

Moves Around the League

While there is still nothing new in the Ranger world (the panic button will be hit soon), there were a few noteworthy moves made in the past few days:

• Alex Tanguay is headed to Tampa Bay. Buying out Vinny Prospal and Marc Denis gave them about $7 million of cap space to work with. Not too shabby.
• The Canucks added Mathieu Schneider to a one-year $1.55 million deal, plus $1 million in games played bonuses. Good deal for a good, veteran, scoring defenseman. If he went that cheap, I wonder why Glen Sather didn’t kick the tires on him.
• The Canucks also traded two prospects (Daniel Rahimi, Patrick White) to San Jose for Christian Ehrhoff and Brad Lukowich. Ehrhoff is entering his prime and had a great season last year, and Lukowich will provide some veteran leadership lost when Mattias Ohlund bolted for, well, the Bolts on July 1.

11-Game Pack

Apparently being #1484 on the waiting list wasn’t that big of a deal. I got my 11-game pack today in section 415. I will be attending these games:

9/21 – Detroit
10/11 – Anaheim
10/22 – NJ
11/12 – Atlanta
12/23 – Florida
12/30 – Philly
1/14 – Ottawa
1/17 – Montreal
2/4 – Washington
3/4 – Pittsburgh
3/18 – St. Louis

I will probably buy single game tickets too, but that’s a nice run of games. It has a nice mix of West, division rivals, and potential playoff teams. Actually, all but the Atlanta game are against potential playoff teams.

Is it September yet?

No Cap Space for Kessel

Larry Brooks Marc Everson of the NY Post writes that the clock is ticking on the Rangers “bid” for RFA Phil Kessel. This is probably a moot point, but the Rangers lost all chances at Kessel when they traded their third-round pick next year for Brian Boyle. I, along with a ton of Ranger fans, was completely unaware that the Rangers were even in the bidding for the winger. But that doesn’t really matter right now.

There is simply not enough cap space available, for either team, to make a deal. The Rangers would have to send salary to Boston to make the deal happen on their end. The Bruins currently sit $600k OVER the cap, and that’s without Kessel on the roster at his $5 million demand.

Should the Rangers package, say Brandon Dubinsky, a pick, and a prospect for Kessel, and sign him to that $5 million contract, the Rangers, even with just 20 players on the roster, will sit $300k over the cap. The Bruins, of course, will still be $600k over the cap, but will need to sign Dubinsky, not Kessel. Same problem, different player.

There are always over variables involved, of course. It’s only $300k, and Kessel might accept something in the $4.5 million salary range on a shorter term contract. That’s a very realistic possibility, getting Kessel for say, two years and $9 million. It definitely works for this season. But there are current and future factors that GM Glen Sather need to consider, mainly Marc Staal and Dan Girardi.

Both Staal and Girardi will be RFAs again at the end of the 2009-2010 season. Both will be due raises, probably to the tune of $2 million for Girardi and $2.5 million for Staal. This is important to note because the Rangers don’t have any major money coming off the books (unless you count Chris Higgins and Vinny Prospal), and the salary cap will almost certainly go down for the 2010-2011 season.

Another issue to consider is that Kessel, despite what anyone may write, is NOT a center. He is a very solid two-way winger with one of the best shots in the game. But he is not a center. The Rangers biggest need right now is a top-line center, in which they may have in Dubinsky, assuming he signs sometime before December.

The final issue, which is probably bigger than most people will realize, is that the Rangers would have just 20 players under contract. We saw what happened last season with no blue liners in the press box to pressure the starters (see: Kalinin, Dmitri). Competition breeds improvement. Plus, what happens if someone gets hurt?

The Rangers are in a very rare position where they have the cap room to absorb the raises due next year, a balance of youth and experience, and four cornerstones that they can build a franchise around (Staal, Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan and Henrik Lundqvist). Yes, acquiring Kessel would be an upgrade for this season, but you also have to plan for the future.

Devils Advocate: As I was writing this, I started playing Devils Advocate with myself. While I believe a trade for Kessel would be a step forward, and then a step backward due to the Staal/Girardi situation, I began to think about all those defense prospects sitting in Hartford. I also recall a post I made about Dan Girardi becoming expendable. If the Rangers deal for Kessel, you can probably kiss Dan Girardi good bye. With Bobby Sanguinetti, Michael Del Zotto, and Ryan McDonagh waiting in the wings, roster space needs to be made available.

That can be one way to deal with Girardi’s impending raise, just cut him loose. Depending on the cap ceiling, it may work out for the Rangers.

Understanding the Cap: Waivers Update

Don’t miss my 2009-2010 season outlook, right below this post. It took a while to write, and you should definitely check it out.

It was brought to my attention that some of the information in the waivers section on the Understanding the Cap page was inaccurate.

Essentially, One-way and two-way contracts have nothing to do with a player passing through waivers. The definition of a two-way contract is the player receives two different salaries, depending on which league he plays in. If he is in the AHL, he may make $100k, and in the NHL, he might make $500k. There are also such things as three-way contracts, which are different pay levels for the ECHL, AHL and NHL.

I am working on getting the true scenarios for waivers. Sorry if this caused any confusion.

Update 5:10pm: Found the true definitions of waiver eligibility. The Understanding the Cap page has been updated.

2009-2010 Outlook

With September almost upon us, there is excitement in the air. No matter what a team does in the offseason, the entire season depends on the production as a team on the ice. We know all too well that buying players does not guarantee a Cup, so you never know if the signings of Marian Gaborik, Ales Kotalik, and Vinny Prospal will amount to anything. Injuries can take its toll, and with two rookies seemingly starting on defense, an injury to one of the top-four could spell disaster. Of course, one injury to Henrik Lundqvist, and the Rangers will be a lottery team next season. Since Hank is the most important cog in this machine that is the Rangers, let’s start with him.

Goaltending

The Rangers season begins and ends with Hank in the pipes. As already stated, if he goes down, the Rangers will have a lottery pick next season. Nothing else needs to be said about him.

The most under appreciated, and possibly most important next to Hank, member of the team this year will be Steve Valliquette. With the two week break for the Olympics, an Olympics in which Hank will be playing for Sweden, Vally will need to start, play solidly, and provide rest for Hank, in about 20-25 games this year. We have seen time and time again that Hank tires after playing 70 games in a season. Vally will need to step up and become more than just a backup goalie.

Expect to see Hank in just 3/4 of the games this year, maybe even less. With the condensed schedule, rest plays a vital role.

Defense

Going from the net out, you have the Ranger defense, which will have to be better than last year with Vally playing in 20 games. Starting with just the defensive aspect of the game, the defense will be taxed this year, as it is no longer Tom Renney’s five-in-the-play system. John Tortorella’s safe-is-death system will result in many more odd man rushes than we are accustomed to. Smart, positional defense is going to be at a premium for the Rangers.

So where does this leave us? Well, Marc Staal-Dan Girardi and Wade Redden-Michal Rozsival are a pretty good front four in terms of defense. Yes, even Redden. He’s not that terrible, he’s just a $3 million defenseman getting paid $6.5 million. Money aside, he’s a decent 2-pairing. Those four don’t exactly strike fear in the eyes of opposing forwards, but they will be effective. The question-mark here is the 3rd pairing, which as of now will be two rookies, probably something along the lines of Bobby Sanguinetti-Michael Sauer/Corey Potter. They will need to show they can play at the NHL level, or the Rangers will be in deep trouble. The dark horse here is Michael Sauer, who was a whopping +29 last year with Hartford. If he can continue that strong defensive play, it will leave room for error for Sanguinetti.

As far as even-strength offense from the blue line goes, well, if Rozsival and Redden can manage 40-point seasons, I’ll call that a huge victory. I’m hoping for 150 pts total from the defense this year (40 each from Rozsival/Redden, and 20 a piece for the other 4). Considering the Rangers defense put up 137 points total last season this isn’t really all that far fetched. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t happen either.

Update 11:00am: It was brought to my attention that I completely forgot about Matt Gilroy, who is essentially a lock to make the team as a 5th defenseman. So the 6th defenseman spot is likely to be between the Sanguinetti / Sauer / Potter combination, with one serving as a 7th defenseman and the other going back to Hartford.

Offense
Four forwards from last years roster are returning this year. Usually, roster turnover as large as this is a bad thing. But, in the offensively-challenged Rangers case, this may be a blessing in disguise. A top line of Vinny Prospal-Brandon Dubinsky-Marian Gaborik has the potential to be a legitimate top line in the league, assuming Gaborik can stay healthy. If he plays 75 games this year, he can, and probably will, put up 80 points, giving the Rangers that primary scoring that they have been longing for since Jaromir Jagr split for Russia. Add that to the hopeful 110 points combined from Prospal and Dubinsky, and that’s almost 200 points from your top line. It’s not tops in the league, but it’s definitely an improvement from last year.

The Rangers strength on the offensive side of the puck will be their secondary scoring. As of today, you are looking at a second line of Chris Higgins-Chris Drury-Ales Kotalik, who each in their own right can put up 50-70 points. Believe it or not, that’s one of the better second lines in the league, because you can’t just focus on one guy. A third line of Sean Avery-Artem Anisimov-Ryan Callahan adds more scoring potential, which may actually be capable of matching the numbers put up by the second line, but that’s in a best-case scenario. Assume an average of 40 points each to be on the conservative side. The second and third line personnel are interchangeable, as nothing is really set in stone right now.

The fourth line won’t see much playing time, and will probably be a revolving door between Donald Brashear, Tyler Arnason, Brian Boyle, Dane Byers and Enver Lisin. They will probably get five minutes a game.

Powerplay
I don’t even know where to begin on the powerplay. We can start with the positives, as Marian Gaborik adds a true sniping presence and will draw the attention of the penalty killers, leaving secondary options like Ales Kotalik, Chris Drury, and Ryan Callahan open for opportunities.

In this league, you live and die by your special teams, and the only question on Ranger fans minds is who will quarterback the powerplay? The job will belong to Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival for now. Both are capable of being a decent QB, but both seem to shy away from being in that spot. I’ll tell you this, if Rozsival starts shooting more often, the powerplay will instantly be better. A puck shooting defenseman, one with a good shot (as Rozsival has), really opens up the rest of the powerplay. Want to ignore the defense and concentrate on stopping Gaborik? Fine, dish the puck to Rozsival who lets a cannon loose from the point. Have to step up on Rozsival? Ok, dish it off to Gaborik who takes his time picking the corner he wants to hit.

As important as Wade Redden is to the Rangers powerplay, Michal Rozsival will be the key to success.

Penalty Kill
The best penalty killing tandem in the league last year is gone, as Blair Betts and Frederik Sjostrom have been jettisoned in the massive roster turnover this summer. The penalty killing duties will rest on Marian Gaborik, who learned how to play a two-way game while playing for Jacques Lemaire in Minnesota, Chris Drury, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Chris Higgins, and Sean Avery. All are strong two-way players who can skate, and will be able to net a few shorthanded tallies. On the defensive side, the two question marks are the two rookies. We will have to wait and see how they handle the rigors of an NHL penalty kill.

Your best penalty killer is your goalie, and with Henrik Lundqvist in net, the Rangers have one of the top penalty killers in the game. His presence will allow the Rangers to take more chances, even when shorthanded. He will be able to bail out the aforementioned rookies a few times as they adjust.

Coaching
The John Tortorella boot camp begins in two weeks. When Torts took over the team in February and went to the run-and-gun style of play, it was a culture shock for the Rangers. They looked flat out gassed after the first period of every game.

With a full season, and training camp, of the John Tortorella style, the Rangers won’t be caught by surprise again. Expect this team to be in the best shape of their lives coming into the season. This will be one of the most important things for the Rangers, as a condensed season under the run-and-gun offense will take its toll. The Rangers will definitely be more exciting to watch this year, but if they are out of shape, they will run out of gas come March. Conditioning is all on Torts now, and it will be interesting to watch.

There are a lot of new pieces to the puzzle this year, and we will have to be patient to see how they all mesh together. By the middle of November, we should know where this team stands in the grand scheme of things.

The More We Wait, the More Worried We Get

Paging Brandon Dubinsky.

Paging Glen Sather.

It’s almost September.