Puck Prospectus: Hank #2 in Quality Starts

Puck Prospectus, who has given us new metrics such as GVT to help put some better numbers behind the NHL stats, now gives us stats to better evaluate goaltenders. It’s a very interesting read, and you should check it out. I’m not going to re-hash the article here, but the key points were comparing goals allowed to what you can get for the same price, called GVS (Goal-Versus-Salary). Obviously Tim Thomas, his Vezina, and his $1.1 million salary topped that list.

The other stat, called Quality Starts, is when a pitcher goes 6+ innings allowing three or less runs is determined when a goalie has a save percentage of higher than XXX% for the season (varies per season, was .913% for 2008-2009). This does not take team offensive production into account. The stat is clearly incomplete, as it doesn’t take into effect the quality of shots taken, but it’s still a good start. Coming in at #2 in the league in quality starts, Henrik Lundqvist.

Side note, I like these metrics, it adds some value to hockey stats, as opposed to just counting stats.

And That’s Twelve

We have 12 people for the BSB Fantasy Hockey league. It will be on Yahoo, I sent emails out to everyone who is in.

Details will be sent out in September when I create the league. Assume it will be a September 27 draft, probably around 8pm.

Grachev Finished in OHL, Rangers Looking at Seidenberg?

This info courtesy of Beyond the Blueshirts and their Twitter page. Just note that this news is unconfirmed as of this moment.

Evgeny Grachev’s time in the OHL is over. The Rangers have informed the Brampton Battalion that they will not be returning him to juniors next season. If the 19-year old Grachev does not make the Rangers out of camp, which is still a very strong possibility, he will be in the AHL with the Wolfpack to start the season. My bet is still AHL.

For those of us keeping track, the AHL has an age restriction of 20 years old. This rule only applies to North American players, and European players who were drafted out of the CHL. Grachev was drafted out of Russia, thus this rule does not apply to him.

Initially, I was surprised the Rangers are doing this. The kid is 19 and could definitely learn a lot from another season in Brampton. However, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. Grachev has shown he is a class above the junior level, and it’s time to show it at the AHL level. Hartford, with Anisimov probably headed to the NHL, will need a front line scorer, and Grachev is now their man for this season. Hopefully, if all goes well, the Rangers won’t have to rush him through the AHL, and it will allow him to adapt to the increased speed and intensity of the AHL game.

I’m looking forward to seeing Grachev on a line with Gaborik, or Callahan, in the future. That will be fun to watch.

In other news, the Rangers are apparently interested in Dennis Seidenberg, the 28 year old defenseman who played with Carolina last year. He has some offensive touch, but was a -9 with the Canes last year. He would be the 5th defenseman, which means the Rangers aren’t all that content with starting two rookie defensemen every night.

They have the cap room to match his $1.2 million salary from last season, which leaves about $3.2 million in cap room for Brandon Dubinsky, a 13th forward and a 7th defenseman. If the rumors are true, and Dubinsky will play for his qualifying offer, then the Rangers are in good shape cap-wise for this season.

I know, I’m shocked too.

Nine So Far

If you sent me an email about playing Fantasy Hockey, you’re in. Just keep in mind, if you did not send me an email, you are not counted in this list. I figure 12-14 teams will be nice. It’s enough teams so that you have to stay active.

So far I have 9 people, including myself. So the first 3-5 people that email me get the last spots.

I will be in “training” all day today, with no laptop, so I have one more pre-written post coming at 12, but that’s it. If there’s any big news, I’m sure Mike or Stas will post it.

More Fuel to the ‘Get Off Versus’ Fire

Versus, well, sucks. Their broadcasts are horrible, they don’t show replays, they are uncharacteristically biased, no one knows what channel it is, they botched the Conference Semifinals coverage (how can you not show both games?) and now, the icing on the cake, DirecTV will no longer be carrying the channel. I guess it’s not such a big deal, as DirecTV has only 20 million subscribers. I guess the NHL doesn’t need those 20 million people.

But hey, that’s just my opinion. Why not let the ratings speak for themselves:

According to Nielsen ratings numbers, Versus is averaging 3,000 more viewers at any given time since rebranding itself from the Outdoor Life Network to Versus in 2006-2007. On DirecTV, Versus ranks 61st among 74 English-advertising supported cable networks.

I think the only good thing that Versus has going is Doc Emerick. At least he has passion for the game.

Paging Gary Bettman….. Aw hell, screw it. It won’t work anyway.

Rangers Interested in Sundin?

Finally, some hockey news to report on. After 750 words of ranting on two topics, it feels good to post on something that actually relates to the Rangers. By the way, don’t forget, if you are interested in a BSB Fantasy Hockey League, email me.

According to Steve Zipay, the Rangers are reportedly interested, again, in Brett Favre’s Mats Sundin’s return to the NHL. While Sundin never formally retired, he did wait until December of last season to decide where he wanted to go. Considering he is 38, getting married in a week, and camp is 20 days away, you have to wonder what kind of shape he is in. He certainly isn’t in John Tortorella shape.

It is widely known that the Rangers are looking for a #1 center, preferably with size. But with a little under $3 million in cap room, and Brandon Dubinsky still twiddling his thumbs, you have to wonder what the plan here is. Between Drury, Prospal, Dubsinky, and maybe Anisimov as a dark horse, the Rangers have enough options to see who can center Gaborik. Gabby had Pierre-Marc Bouchard as his center (I think) during his tenure in Minnesota, and Bouchard isn’t exactly your typical #1 center.

Gaborik also had Aaron Voros on his LW. It’s not like he needs a play maker. Let’s see how Prospal-Dubinsky-Gaborik does. It can’t hurt to try.

Fantasy Hockey?

With training camp (finally) around the corner, I just want to gauge the interest around here for a BSB Fantasy Hockey League. It will be free to join, and the winner will get a prize, something small.

Send me an email at dave[at]blueseatblogs[dot]com, of course using proper symbols, and let me know if you’re interested.

You Know Who I’m Sick Of?

Dany Heatley. Just when I thought all the drama was over, he goes and “speaks out” abouthis trade demands, bringing himself right back to the center of attention. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that his “diminished role” is the reason for his trade demand. He wants to be the center of attention, and this “interview” is just proof that all he cares about is himself.

His statement about the Edmonton deal shows his ignorance to the business of the game as well. When you demand a trade publicly like that, your team loses a lot of negotiating power, thus the deal your GM will want probably won’t be offered. Edmonton was the only team left, once the Rangers signed Marian Gaborik, with a legitimate offer on the table. That’s how the business is run Dany boy. You were never going to be presented with 29 options. I don’t see why you turned down Edmonton either. There aren’t any real superstars on the team, you would definitely be the center of attention. Isn’t that what you want Dany boy?

This just shows the selfishness of some of today’s athletes. Don’t you wish the game was filled with people like the 1990′s Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, three Hall of Fame pitchers who took salaries that were rumored to be $3 million less per year to stay with Atlanta? Or even, dare I say it, Cindy Crosby, who took $2 million less per year to stay in Pittsburgh? What about Brendan Shanahan, who took an incentive-laden contract to stay in New York?

What about the good old days when issues were settled behind closed doors? Players, and their agents, know that with today’s internet-based media and instant news that they can use the media to really push the public opinion. Usually it works too. I mean, you can drop a team name and an offer to a media outlet, and all of a sudden 10 other teams are coming up with better offers. It happens in baseball all the time, that’s why Scott Boras is the best agent in the land. The risk you run is if it doesn’t get settled quickly, you run the risk of people’s eyes bleeding every time they see another story about you. Don’t think it’s possible? Ask a baseball fan about steroids, and his eyes will bleed. He may even go into a seizure. It’s just that played out. Eventually, stories get to the point where no one cares.

Well done, Dany boy, no one cares about you anymore. You played this perfectly.

So my past two posts have been 350 words ranting about rumored trades, and 425 words ranting about Dany Heatley. Is it September yet?

This Isn’t NHL ’10

Considering my passion is the business of hockey, I love the offseason. Analyzing trades and signings from a business standpoint is a lot of fun for me. I know I’m not the only one that loves analyzing this stuff, and making up my own trade scenarios to get the players I want on the Rangers. But before we go any further, please note that if NHL ’10 (or ’09, or ’08) accepts your trade, it doesn’t mean that real life GMs will accept the trade. Actually, the trading system in the NHL games is incredibly flawed, because it undervalues prospects and over values players like Marek Malik. Need more clarification? I traded Malik to Anaheim for a 1st round pick in NHL ’08.

No, not all trade scenarios are straight from NHL video games, but some are still equally ludicrous. Let’s start with the hot topic of Brad Richards. The “rumored” deal was Richards to the Rangers for just Dubinsky, Rozsival and a 1st round pick.

Last time I checked, robbery is still a crime in New York.

My personal feelings of this deal aside, that’s a ridiculous steal for the Rangers and a deal that gets the Dallas GM (who is it nowadays anyway?) fired and burned at the stake. The Rangers would have to throw in one of Sanguinetti / Del Zotto / McDonagh and probably an additional pick or a lower level prospect. Consider it this way, Brad Richards will cost the Rangers more than what Scott Gomez cost les Canadiens.

Yes, Tom Hicks is in financial trouble, but considering the size of his financial problems, dumping what amounts to be $3 million isn’t really a big breather for him. So that becomes a moot point.

The other deal is the same package “rumored” for Dany Heatley. At least we are consistent with these packages for stars. The same argument applies, except it’s an even bigger steal. You have to throw in the same logic that the Rangers would have to throw in one or two of their front-line prospects.

Like it or not, this is the cost of a front-line player. Dany Heatley and Brad Richards will not come cheap, and I can guarantee that if you keep begging for them, you will not be pleased with what goes the other way.

Also remember that quantity =/= quality. You will not be able to throw 25 Jordan Owens’ at a GM to get Brad Richards.

Basically, when thinking of if a trade would work, think about it from the opposing GMs point of view: “Would this trade make my team better?” In both of these trade scenarios, the clear answer is no.

Stealing Vinny

With the signing of Vinny Prospal occurring while I’m pretty much isolated from the outside world (not a bad thing, surfing in San Diego is really fun), it takes me a little while to catch up on all the news. Hell, I didn’t even know about the Vinny Prospal signing until I checked my phone (which I’m not allowed to carry while I’m here) at around 9pm that night.

Anyway, Prospal officially signed for $1.1 million, which is an absolute steal, as Prospal is pretty much a lock for at least 40 points. It really makes you wonder what the hell Slats was thinking when he signed Ales Kotalik to that $9 million deal over three years to maybe put up 40 points (he’s only done it three times). But what’s done is done, and let’s focus on the positive here: Prospal is a minimal cap hit, a consistent contributor, plays two positions, isn’t committed to a long term deal, and is easily traded should the right deal arise.

This is also an insurance policy in case Brandon Dubinsky can’t handle the rigors of first line duty between Gaborik and Higgins/Avery/Prospal. In the best case scenario, you have Prospal-Dubinsky-Gaborik as the top line. It’s not exactly intimidating, but it will get the job done. Should Dubinsky be unable to perform on the ice, Prospal can switch to pivot, and you can move up any LW not named Donald Brashear.

It provides much needed cheap flexibility amongst the top two lines. As much as I hated the Ales Kotalik deal, is as much as I love this deal. This is one of those deals that will fly under the radar, but provide huge results.

And did I mention that he comes ridiculously cheap?