Puck Prospectus: VUKOTA Projects Rangers 24th
The metrics masters at Puck Prospectus have some rather disturbing news, as one of their effective metrics, VUKOTA, has the Rangers finishing 24th in the NHL in the upcoming season. Even for an optimist like myself, it’s a bit disturbing to see a prediction like this.
It’s easy to look at the Rangers and see question marks, mainly about Marian Gaborik’s groin (Anyone ever wonder what would happen if he just starts banging models two at a time? What would happen to the groin then?). We all know what will happen if the question marks don’t pan out. But, while it is highly unlikely that all of the “issues” become non-issues, it is equally unlikely that all of the issues stay issues. There are always surprises during the season (did anyone expect a PK unit of Blair Betts and Fred Sjostrom to be tops in the league?).
So what happens if Gaborik plays 75 games this year? That’s about 70 more than most “experts” expect him to play. What happens if a full season under John Tortorella has a positive affect on the Rangers?
Moral of the story, the game is played on the ice for a reason. It’s nice to read the articles, and Timo Seppa does a great job of putting numbers to his projections, but it seems to be a common theme.
I’ll go on the record and say the Rangers finish third in the Atlantic, just ahead of the Devils. Optimistic, but realistic.
By Mikeyyy, September 9, 2009 @ 8:23 am
I wonder what the VUKOTA projection was for last year and what the actual vs the projected was.
By Jordan, September 9, 2009 @ 10:58 am
I’m sorry, but even on my most down day on this team, no way do they finish 24th. No matter what the changes, does anyone forget who this team has in net!? He alone gives them a chance to be a contender. The forward lines are better than last year. Staal and Girardi will further develop. Redden can’t get worse. Rosi is Rosi. The only real huge question is the third defensive pairing, which isn’t the end of the world. These “experts” need to get a new job, because no way this team, if healthy all around, finishes 24th.
Dave Reply:
September 9th, 2009 at 11:11 am
“If healthy”
VUKOTA only predicts what happens based on past averages, which has Gaborik playing probably 40 games and netting 21 goals.