Caps Loss and Cally
Just a few thoughts about the monumental upset witnessed last night.
- Doesn’t it frustrate you seeing Halak do that? If Lundqvist had even that amount of offensive support last year in game 7 would it have been us?
- Mike Knuble. Why did the Rangers a) get rid of him and b) not try and bring him back last summer. He totally outshone Caps ‘stars’ Semin and Green.
Now… onto the real purpose of my post: Ryan Callahan. We are very lucky to have a heart and soul player, who is mutli-dimensional; has a strong work ethic, is young and wants to be a Ranger. However, sorry Ryan – we need more.
As much as people criticise Brandon Dubinsky in certain ways, I believe Ryan Callahan needs to step up offensively, improve his finishing and become an offensive leader and not ‘just’ be a leader through example. A -12 rating, 37 points, 30 shots less than the year prior – this isnt enough. Even if the Rangers address the scoring in the summer with new additions, this team will only excel if the core, young guys on the team score more. Callahan needs to become a perennial 25 goal guy, he needs to shoot more and he cant be prone to the long stretches without production he suffered this year. 4 times this year Cally failed to gain a point for atleast 5 consecutive games, including two 7 game spells. He also went without a goal for 7 or more games 3 times. That’s not good enough.
He hits (perhaps even too much – i.e. Pronger? Chara? easy there little guy…), he forechecks and he never, ever gives up but Ryan Callahan needs to produce. If Callahan becomes a 50 point guy, a 25 goal scorer some of our problem is aleviated.
Yes his linemates didnt help at times and he had his injuries, he may also have benefited from an Olympic break had he not played (thinking purely from a Ranger point of view here) but an off season shooting a ton of rubber and working on his release will do Cally no harm at all.
I genuinely believe this team, even as currently constructed, has alot of offensive potential but Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky represent the offensive problem this team faces: consistency.
By jurgenno88, April 29, 2010 @ 7:33 am
ha-ha… i cant believe some guy at blueshirt banter wrote about Cally today too. In my defence i had this posted up well before him!
He makes a comment i didnt though; his cap hit after next year: could get painful for the Rangers if Cally improves on what i said.
By Dave, April 29, 2010 @ 9:17 am
His cap hit could be a little ugly, but remember he is still under team control. I would take Cally at a $3 million cap hit if he produces 25 goals and continues playing and leading the way he does.
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 9:28 am
well… my concern is that he asks for more than 3m. If (and we need him to do it, so assume he does) he hits 25+ goals, has a good year overall and improves all across the board, i wouldnt be surprised to see him ask for closer to 4m. It wont be lost on him and his agent what players like Zherdev asked for, and Callahan has a letter… He also knows how much the fan base identifies with him and that the club needs to keep him…
Dave Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 9:39 am
True, but that’s not enough leverage to counter the fact that he can’t really look at other teams, he’s only negotiating with the Rangers.
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 9:54 am
i guess alot depends on how much of a threat you consider offer sheets. He’s the kind of guy teams like the Leafs would crave but Burke famously despises offer sheets.
Dave Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 10:01 am
There really haven’t been that many offer sheets other than Dustin Penner and Thomas Vanek in the cap era.
At $4 million, the compensation is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. At $3.5 million, it’s a 1st and a 3rd round pick. Is that worth it for Cally?
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 10:11 am
a 1st and a 3rd – so 3.5m and i’d probably say yes it is. His ceiling is probably that of a 25 goal 2-way forward who plays the PK. Most late round 1st’s wont guarantee you that, 3rd picks definitely wont. Is a 1st round pick worth giving up for a bonafide top 6 forward? yes. Although it depends where that 1st pick would be i guess…
By Dave, April 29, 2010 @ 10:15 am
Cally isn’t a definite top-six forward after one year of 25 goals. He has to do it consistently, which is why I think he gets $3 million, because if he gets 25 goals, it will be his first time doing it.
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 10:18 am
true. i guess he has to show what im demanding – consistency – before he gets big $$$
Some teams do pay for potential as well as production though. I guess thats where my concern lies.
Dave Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Sather isn’t a guy that pays for potential, for the most part. His track record doesn’t show it.
Considering he won’t get anywhere near $4 million in arbitration, I doubt Cally asks or gets it. I would assume $3.5 million absolute max if he gets to 25 goals.
By Mikeeyyyy, April 29, 2010 @ 11:02 am
Everyone needs to perform…period…well except Gabby.
So decided to crunch some numbers.
For next year
46.602 in Contracts
Add in Brashear 1.4(Because of his age, his contract hits the cap next year)
9.863 Cap Space
RFAs
Lisin Current Cap Hit .790 Resign offer .830 Compensation None
Christiansen Current Cap Hit.750 Resign offer .788 Compensation None
Prust Current Cap Hit.500 Resign offer .550 Compensation None
Byers Current Cap Hit .500 Resign offer .550 Compensation None
Girardi Current Cap Hit 1.550 Resign offer 1.550 Compensation 2nd
Staal Current Cap Hit .765 Resign offer .803 Compensation None
Heikkinen Current Cap Hit .875 Resign offer .919 Compensation None
UFAs
Jokinen 5.250
Prospal 1.1
Shelley .725
Parenteau .500
Locke .500
Eriksson .600
Potter .550
Valiquette .725
Auld 1.0
Zaba .575
It would cost 5.99 Million to extend qualifying offers to all RFAs, leaving 3.873 Million in cap space to sign some unrestricted free agents. Let’s compound the fact that the RFAs can go to arbitration. Girardi and Staal will definitely go, attracting about 2 million a piece, so we will most likley have about 2.226 million in cap space available to sign a free agent. If other players go to arbitration as well, they will most likely get pay increases. Prust and Christiansen can get 1 million a piece, eating up .662 million of that available cap, down to about 1.5.
Also compounding the RFA problem is that none except Girardi gives us any compensation in draft picks.
OF the UFAs Shelley, Potter, Parenteau and Prospal are likely ones to be courted. Which means Lisin will not be resigned. This would give us about .830 back in cap, 2.394.
So we won’t be able to sign all the people we want. The situation we will be left in with the Redden, Rosi, Drury contracts is one where we will be strangling our youth in the AHL because we don’t have the cap to keep good players signed.
The only way out of this situation is to get rid of one of those big contracts. Because of price and performance, it will probably be Rosival, Redden and Drury make way too much. But if Sather can pull off some magic, would it be good to trade a high draft pick and Redden to get rid of a contract and pick up some spare parts? Drury ain’t going anywhere, and Rosi wears the A…so what kind of offers could we even get for Redden? I don’t see a good 2011 season with the situation we are currently in.
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 11:24 am
Rosi deserves to stay after the way he rebounded. I have to admit i was wrong on him. He’s not ideal and not worth 5m but he’s servicable and unliekly to get moved for another year.
Redden might not go but he needs to go. And while i wouldnt trade a 1st i would be willing to part with picks to get rid of him if they wont consider demotion. Lisin is a gonner. I’d also be willing to part witha lower draft pick to move Brashear’s contract. a 6th rounder? yes.
Dave Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 11:39 am
Sather has taught us you don’t need to trade picks to get rid of a contract. It’s the biggest myth in the NHL. I wrote a post on it: http://www.blueseatblogs.com/2009/12/24/a-common-misconception/
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 11:41 am
i know you dont have to but with certain players (i.e. Redden) who are unmovable maybe you do. all im saying is, i’d be willing to if they can getr id of him.
Dave Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 11:37 am
You have to keep in mind that not all RFAs will be qualified. Lisin and Heikkinen won’t be qualified. Prust/Shelley/Byers will get minimal raises, close to the league minimum. Christensen $800-$1m, Girardi will get $2.5m tops, Staal $3-4m probably.
Of the UFAs, only Shelley, Potter, Auld and Prospal will be talked to. Shelley and Potter will get league minimum (roughly). Auld will get no more than $1m, and Prospal is the wild card.
It fits under the cap, assuming it goes up to $57.7 million as the rumors are stating. Not the ideal scenario, but it fits, and has 13th forward and a 7th defenseman.
jurgenno88 Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 11:40 am
i read that the players may vote to enforce their 5% cap rise like last time. If that happens its potentially good news.
In terms of cap figures, does anyone think the Rangers try to ink Staal to a Duncan Keith-esqure long term deal?
Mikeeyyyy Reply:
April 29th, 2010 at 11:49 am
That uses up 8 million of cap.
leaving 2.5 million to sign Potter, Prospal, and Auld. Prospal prolly gets 1.5-2.0 million and Potter gets .750.
Still doesn’t look good.
I wouldn’t expect Auld to be back next season.