Scouting the Market: Ilya Kovalchuk

Up next in Scouting The Market: everyone’s favorite Russian, Ilya Kovalchuk. Read the other Scouting The Markets here. Since the draft ended, and tomorrow all hell breaks loose for UFA’s, let’s give you a big dose of available UFA’s. Jeremy has been keeping you up to date this month, but for a day, I want to chime in too.

Kovalchuk is easily the most skilled winger available in this extremely thin UFA class. The LW averages over 40 goals and 80 points per year, and is easily considered to be an elite talent in the NHL. The knock on Kovalchuk though, is pretty much every other aspect of the game. He appears to be lazy in his own zone, and doesn’t really know what to do without the puck. In fact, the guys at Behind The Net have done some fantastic analysis of Kovalchuk’s advanced metrics. You can read about it here. There is one sentence you should focus on:

To recap that table in a sentence: Ilya Kovalchuk has been much more likely to start out in the offensive zone than his teammates, and even though he lines up against his opponents’ weaker lines, his teams have been significantly outshot while he’s on the ice. In other words, he’s a seriously negative player at even-strength.

Essentially, Kovalchuk’s stats are inflated based on his powerplay time, and his ridiculous shot percentage. Kovalchuk takes plenty of shots, and his shot is so lethal, that he is able to put the puck in the net more often. So, when you package all that together, you get a great scorer who at best is a mediocre player at even-strength.

Kovalchuk’s ridiculous salary demands have left many GMs with a sour taste in their mouths, especially after he rejected a $100 million contract from Atlanta over 12 years. Maybe he just wanted out of Atlanta, but that is a lot of money to turn down. The fact that he received a mammoth contract from the KHL probably plays a part, but since Kovalchuk’s salary is limited by the salary cap, it doesn’t play that much of a factor in the negotiation process. He simply can’t receive that kind of money in the NHL.

Kovalchuk would add another high profile, high scoring winger to the Rangers roster, but is the cost worth it? If the Rangers do in fact waive Wade Redden, should they reinvest all of that, and then some, in Kovalchuk, when they have players like Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky with expiring contracts the following year? It’s a big risk, but he really would help solve the Rangers scoring woes, even-strength play notwithstanding.

Free Agency Prediction

Free Agency is almost here, and while the rest of sporting world will be focused on the LeBron watch, we here are BSB will be focused on what the NHL free agency period looks like (ah, who I am kidding. We’re all watching to see where LeBron goes. And hockey. But, LeBron too)

We’ve been profiling potential free agent targets for the Rangers. Read about them here.

Here’s what I think the Rangers are going to do.  Read it, and see what you think:

I don’t think the Rangers will be that active. I think they’ll resign Prospal. Christensen is as good as gone (and really, why did he not take that offer?). This team will be younger, but I don’t think that’s bad. Here’s my take on potential lines

Brashear, Voros, Rissmiller Waived

Several Twitter posts have said the Rangers waived Donald Brashear, Aaron Voros, and Patrick Rissmiller. There are rumors of them being bought out, but the only one that makes sense to buyout from a salary cap perspective would be Voros. Rissmiller hasn’t been with the team since he signed his contract, and a buyout would just add an unnecessary cap hit. A Brashear buyout won’t save any money, as he is on an over-35 contract. A Voros buyout would result in a $400,000 cap hit this season ($600,000 savings), and a $300,000 cap hit next season, when Voros would be off the books.

I do not believe these players were waived for potential buyouts, but waived to create cap room. Waiving Brashear saves the Rangers $100,000, and Voros saves the Rangers $1 million. Waiving Rissmiller is a technicality, as his salary has never counted against the Rangers cap hit. That’s $1.1 million saved by waiving them. It’s a simple matter of clearing cap space, much like what the Rangers did at the trade deadline.

Arthur Staple: Redden “Certain” to be Waived

As per Arthur Staple of Newsday, the discussions about waiving very expensive and underachieving defenseman Wade Redden have begun internally amongst the New York Rangers brass:

There is more room on defense, where Wade Redden is almost certain to be waived and sent to Hartford when training camp ends. “He’s been discussed,” Sather said.

Clearly, we all know what the benefits of waiving Wade Redden would be. It would open a spot on the roster for a young kid, and it would clear $6.5 million in cap space for the Rangers to play with. Considering Glen Sather’s recent non-statements about Ilya Kovalchuk, fearing tampering accusations, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that this is truly being considered as a viable option for the Rangers.

Fans have talked about this ad nauseum. For a long, long time, I believed this to be just us fans hoping and dreaming that he would get waived. As a matter of fact, I have penned several posts explaining why he won’t get waived, bought out, or traded, and that we were stuck with him for the foreseeable future. Then, this article by Staple comes out in Newsday, which is owned by Cablevision, owned by the same people that own the Rangers. The Dolan’s historically hate the media (kind of ironic, yes), but the fact that this article was published in a Dolan-owned entity speaks volumes.

The Rangers decision to wait until after training camp does serve a purpose. It forces kids to beat out the veteran for his spot on the roster, instead of just handing them the spot. Also, if no kid plays his way on the team, then the Rangers at least have a body to play on the blue line until someone proves themselves in Hartford. This also gives a 12 year veteran one more camp to try and find his game. Despite many fans feelings towards him, Redden is a class act and a nice guy. If just for that, he deserves a chance at camp to try to reclaim him spot, even if he, and we, knows it is for naught.

I still do not believe the Rangers have the cojones to waive Wade Redden. And I will continue to believe that until the day comes that he is actually waived. Maybe it is just a defense mechanism, in that if I believe he will be waived, and he isn’t, I’ll just get angry. But, for what it is worth, Rangers brass is discussing waiving Redden. Now, what to do with all that cap space?

Scouting The Market: Vinny Prospal

Up next in Scouting The Market: Our old friend Vinny Prospal. Read the other Scouting The Markets here.

Vinny Prospal was the Rangers alternate captain last year, and had a great year, putting up a line of 20-38-58. The 35 year old foward play wing and center, and meshed well with Marian Gaborik.

Prospal isn’t the best defensive player, but he plays hard, and scores goals. The Rangers need that. He proved to be a great presence in the locker room, and was well-respected.

Prospal was a bargain last year. He only made $1.1 million. Still, with his age, I wouldn’t expect that to go much higher.

The problem with re-signing Prospal is that you’re bringing back essentially the same team as last year. Which, if you take away the middle 40 games, wasn’t a bad team. But, you can’t take away those games. They underachieved, and if you bring back Prospal, you’re not sending a great message to your fans.

If they re-sign Vinny, here’s what the lines could look like:

Prospal-Dubinsky-Gaborik

Avery-Christensen-Callahan

Prust-Anisimov-Shelley

Weise-Drury-Boyle

It’s a lot like last year’s team. Hell, it is last year’s team. What do you think? Bring back Vinny? Let us know in the comments.

Rangers Draft; Just An Opinion.

Rangers Draft Weekend; Just my Opinion.

First of all I have to say I was off the radar all weekend in Ireland with no net access whatsoever (great timing I know…).So saying that, when I did get online and went straight to the draft results on Friday night (Sat AM for me) I wont lie and admit I was disappointed. I, like many of us, had dreamt of Nino, hoped for Tarasenko and would more than gladly settled for Skinner, Johansen or another player just so long as they added the scoring we craved.

Oh well…. When my initial disappointment (even anger) subsided i then realised it was Gordie Clark’s doing and in Gordie I and we trust.

To break it down as a weekend; The positives: The Rangers addressed organisational needs; they got their nasty defenceman, they got size, they got a center and they added alot of physicality. They drafted to a plan and Thomas and Yogan may be nice additions down the line. The Rangers continued to look to blood lines with Christian Thomas and they, in my opinion, got decent return for Sanguinetti who clearly had no future in the organisation.

After the positives come the question marks; I like Dylan Mcilrath. He’s exactly what we need in one area but his selection means the other area of dire need was left unattended and this is an issue for me. Of the two areas of need (defence and offence) the defence UFA market is much stronger and I feel an elite forward prospect would be more advisable as ‘D’ help was/would be easier to find. On top of that is the fact I think The Rangers ‘reached’ anywhere between 7-15 spots too much for the big Moose Jaw blueliner.

So what now? Mcilrath will now face huge expectancy, some impatience and perhaps even unfavourable career-long comparisons given who went after him in the draft (Fowler etc). This draft could be a foundation solidyfing cross roads or another Jessiman evoking memory. This is where my main issue is…..
Hopefully we get the solid draft we needed but the fact that at 10th overall we got no sure thing and simply more question marks (for the time being) is frustrating.

Note to The Undertaker; New York’s waiting…….

Prust To Receive QO, Christensen Will Not

As per Steve Zipay, the Rangers will extend a qualifying offer to RFA Brandon Prust. Prust, who made $500,000 last season, would receive an offer of approximately $550,000-$600,000 for a one year deal. By extending a QO, the Rangers ensure that they will receive compensation if Prust signs an offer sheet. Compensation will vary based on amount of the deal (details here).

Meanwhile, the Rangers will not extend a QO to RFA Erik Christensen. Christensen, who made $850,000 last season, would receive a QO of approximately $900,000, probably a bit more, for one year. In doing so, the Rangers hope to sign Christensen to a deal for more years, and less money. It is risky, but considering that Christensen was claimed off waivers, it was unlikely he would receive a big offer from another team.

Marc Staal for Bobby Ryan?

With the Marc Staal negotiations at “a chasm”, the Rangers may be put in a position to lose the young defenseman to an offer sheet. However, rumblings out of Anaheim are that Bobby Ryan and Ducks GM Bob Murray are also at odds with the contract negotiations, and Ryan may price himself out of Anaheim. With that said, if the Rangers and Staal cannot come to an agreement, would you trade Staal for Ryan, provided you can get Ryan under contract? Note: This is just me just thinking out loud, and there is no rumor or anything that backs this up.

It sure would make for an interesting scenario. If the Rangers do in fact trade Staal for Ryan, how do you then justify trading Bobby Sanguinetti for draft picks? Also, it then becomes a must that Dan Girardi be re-signed. But who would replace Staal? Is there anyone in the system that can pick up the slack? How would the blue line look, within cap restraints, if you do in fact swap Staal for Ryan?

With the UFA season just three days away, the Rangers need to either get Staal under contract, or risk losing him. Gaining something back in the form of Bobby Ryan would make losing Staal more palatable though.

Dylan McIlrath = YouTube Sensation

Hello all.  After a long hiatus, I’m finally back doing posts here.  Forgive my almost year-long absence.  The recent NHL entry draft seemed like a good enough transition point for me to re-enter the blogosphere, and something about a recent top-10 pick has me pretty riled up…
A lot is being said about the Rangers newest first-round pick, Dylan McIlrath, the brutish teenage defenseman from Moose Jaw (Canadian city names, eh?).  While the move perplexed the majority of us Blueshirt fanatics, I quite honestly didn’t know how to feel about it.  That was until I did some research of my own over the weekend.  After undertaking the usual Google search of our newest defenseman, I decided I wanted to see some full-motion video and went on over to YouTube.  I was at first quite shocked to realize that a seemingly obscure 18 year old Canadian junior hockey player had more than one link to his credit on the world’s most popular video site.  Then, I was flat out impressed by what I saw.  The common theme in these videos: nobody gets the best of this kid.  Was particularly moved by the fight with John Stampohar (same build, and 2 years his elder).  What’s more impressive is that you see him come to the aid of his teammates in a few of these videos.  Maybe Dan Carcillo would have thought twice about mixing it up with Marian Gaborik if a player like this was an established presence on the ice at the time. That to me is equally important than any plus/minus or point total.  You can only hope that with NHL level coaching, this kid can one day blossom into what Chris Pronger has been throughout his career

Sather: “Staal Gap a Chasm”, At Risk of Being Offer Sheeted

As per Steve Zipay, the Rangers and RFA defenseman Marc Staal are nowhere near close to a deal. In fact, it isn’t so much a wide gap as it is “a chasm”. This is not good for the Rangers. Staal’s contract will dictate what the Rangers do in this offseason. In addition to handcuffing the Rangers, Staal may also be at risk of being offer sheeted by another team. Sather did not come out and say that Staal could be offer sheeted, but it is now being speculated that he could be. If he signs an offer sheet, the Rangers would receive some compensation in terms of draft picks depending on the size of the contract offered. (For details on the size of compensation, please refer to the Understanding the Cap page.) Of course, that is pure speculation on my part, but stating the Rangers and Staal are far apart just invites offer sheets from other teams.

Also, Zipay mentioned that Sather refused to talk about Ilya Kovalchuk, fearing any sort of tampering accusation. Should the Rangers make a push for Kovalchuk, there will need to be some serious salary cap maneuvering.