Therein lies the crux of the issue.  If you were to quantify the number of times the puck inadvertently bounced off the defenseman into the net in his own stats, as an evaluator, can tell that number most likely represents a fluky sample.  However, it is much more difficult to extract those types of situations from traditional goalie stats.  Let’s say hypothetically that our sample defensive group is guilty of 12 own-goals for the season.  Unless some deeper statistical tendencies (a subject for another post) could be derived from the number, you can see that 12 instances of bad luck found their way into the back of the team’s net.  If those twelve goals were embedded into the rate stats for the goalie for the season, it changes the equation significantly.  For example, last season Hank played 66.8 games (4007 min.) and had a very respectable 2.28 GAA.  He allowed 152 goals during that time.  If you subtract our own-goal sample out of 12 goals, it brings his goals allowed down to 140.  His GAA goes from 2.28 to 2.10. His save % goes from .923 to .928.

This exercise works for two purposes.  First, is proper allocation of responsibility for what occurs on the ice.  While it may seem harsh to punish the defensemen tying a guy up in front of the net who falls victim to a bad bounce he probably couldn’t have avoided, this happens all the time with the +/- statistic.  Back-checking forwards can be victimized by the dreaded minus because a 2-on-1 goal is scored.  Seems unfair, right?  The goalie playing the position properly should not be held responsible when a shot, which is not a shot on goal, falls into the back of his net due to one of his teammates.

The second purpose is one of evaluation.  As I mentioned before, it is much more difficult to dig these fluky situations out of goalie’s rate stats.  All they do is serve to skew the perception of the goalie’s abilities when examining these stats.  Also, if one defensemen has an excessive amount of own-goals over the course of a large enough sample, it may tell you something about that defensemen’s positioning tendencies.  Assuming you can draw information outside of small sample-size noise, it could be a useful tool in improving defensive positioning.

The NHL will probably never adopt the own-goal statistic, but I think that it makes a ton of sense.  From a defensemen’s standpoint they are an isolated incident.  As long as they fall within an average statistical range, they can be dismissed as bad luck.  For the goalie, it can be the difference between a good season and a Vezina season.  As the statistical evaluation models become more advanced and we start to quantify more minutia that happens on the ice, I still hold out some hope we could employ this type of stat to understand that line that blurs skill and luck.

* For clarification purposes, the scoring on the own-goal would still be a goal for the last offensive player to touch the puck, but would be treated like an empty net goal for the purposes of goalie stats and credited to the defensive player whom the puck deflected off of.

There is a lot of debate going on about whether or not we should acquire a power play quarter back, left wing scorer, or both at the deadline. It seems as though when people finally wake up & realize how slim our chances are of acquiring a Shea Weber or a Bobby Ryan, their next play is to find a cheaper alternative. But there is a flaw in the “deadline rental” logic as well.

Rentals are not going to solve our problems, especially in the long-term. Acquiring one may make sense for depth, but to think getting another erratic 40 point winger or a defensemen with a “cannon from the point” is going to put us over the edge is a bit of a stretch.

What we really need is for some combo of Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, or Christian Thomas living up to their potential. There may be a time down the road when trading one of these assets for an elite player is the right move, but I don’t think that time has arrived yet given where our prospects are, who is available, and the looming CBA talks.

Those of you who wish to see Dubi get moved, I politely ask who has more value at the deadline? A forward on pace for 25 goals or a forward on pace for 9 goals? I’m not against trading Dubinsky one day, but this is not the deadline to do so.

Stick to the Blueprint

My other issue with all of the names being thrown around is that few if any actually fit within our team concept. I’m tired of acquiring guys like Frolov, Wolski, EC, etc, who have no desire to forecheck or backcheck, and then we wonder why they don’t fit.

The national media doesn’t see the ingredients which makes our team successful on a game to game basis. If we are able to make a move at the deadline, they better be for players who can skate, have succeeded in deep forechecking systems and are defensively responsible. Souray, Hemsky, & Whitney need not apply.

Regression to the mean?

It’s entertaining how certain writers have to dump on the Rangers just for the sake of cheap hits & pageviews. Their new methodology for stirring up s*** is trying to convince us our team is not for real because of “regression to the mean” theories.

Who on this team is really over extending themselves this season? Gaborik? No. Richards? Obviously not. Dubinsky? We all know the answer to that one. But seriously who is over achieving? Don’t say Lundqvist because his stats are finally more reflective of his greatness.

If you want to debate some of our flaws, I won’t argue, but I’m beginning to think some of these analytic-types either aren’t watching our games closely or just don’t even believe their own scribble.

The new guy

I’m sure some of you may have noticed we have quietly added a member to our team. Justin was someone we pulled out of the comments section and is now contributing on a regular basis. He’s played the game, he is a part-owner of a goalie school up in Albany, and most importantly he can articulate his points. If you’ve missed any of his work, please be sure to check it out here.

As you’d expect, there’s plenty of great one liners as well as  stupid moments and while the film is slightly clichéd – loser comes good, good guy gets the girl etc – it’s just simply good fun. The story line is certainly a simple one. Glatt is coasting through life and a pivotal moment in his life presents him with the opportunity to use his one skill in life (fighting) in a new role as a hockey player. He takes his opportunity and runs with it serving as protector for the moody, underperforming French Canadian star on his team. There’s plenty of idiocy along the way and the film naturally draws comparisons with Happy Gilmore and Slap Shot.

The film doesn’t do hockey a disservice either. The actual hockey footage isn’t bad and the fighting (which there is plenty of) is pretty comical. It’s a shame they felt the need to use Georges Laraque in the film but I guess no film can be perfect. There’s a nice underlying theme of how respect in hockey is important in the film; both between players (Rhea and Glatt) and how hockey players don’t walk on their team’s logo – you know Tortorella would have approved.

The film takes a light hearted view at some hockey stereotypes beyond just the ‘goon’, as they take digs at the Canadian accent (try and count the ‘eh’s’) and French Canada’s obsession with itself, not to mention the slightly crazy goaltender type (Bryzgalov would be great in this film). There’s also the grizzled veteran who looks eerily like Jaromir Jagr and the slightly awkward Eastern European players.

Jay Baruchel who was also in Tropic Thunder and Knocked Up (equally stupid but fun comedies) is hilarious as the awkward, slightly rotten and off beat best friend while the film is foul mouthed and really serves up to glorify the goon/enforcer role. It’s just funny, doesn’t take itself seriously and is well worth a two hour trip to the cinema.

H/t to Adam Rotter of SNYRB for finding this.

S/t to Adam Rotter of SNY Rangers Blog for finding this.

• Marian Gaborik. It goes without saying that when you lead the entire NHL in goals scored you’re doing something right. Gaborik is having a dominant season; scoring important goals, showing tremendous consistency and giving the Rangers an offensive game changer they lacked last season.
• Henrik Lundqvist. The King is doing what he does best. Like Gaborik he’s tremendously consistent, rarely has he given up a soft goal this year and has been the very backbone of the Rangers once again. Despite being on course to play considerably less games this year – thanks to Martin Biron – the Swedish netminder could be in the discussion for league MVP, such is his impact so far.
• Dan Girardi. The amount of time he spends on the ice is borderline insane – not far off a minute/game more than second in the league. Girardi blocks shots, provides the Rangers with immense stability and chips in offensively too. Not a ‘sexy’ player or a dominant offensive blueliner, guys like Girardi (unfortunately) rarely get the kudos of all star games even when they deserve the recognition. Critical to the Rangers.
• Mike Del Zotto. Yes, you read it – Mike Del Zotto. Especially in the past month he has been consistent, increasingly dangerous offensively, physically impressive and has shown great ability to swallow minutes all season. Del Zotto is the league’s leading blueliner in plus/minus and is one three point game away from being in the league’s top 10 in scoring from the blueline. Easily, the most improved Ranger this season.
• Ryan Callahan. Like Girardi and his ‘type’, rarely are the Ryan Callahan’s of the NHL rewarded with all star weekends. Amongst the league leaders in hits, and ice time amongst forwards Callahan has taken his offensive game to another level and is on course for his first 30 goal season. Maybe the best lead-by-example captain in the league today does any player try harder? Guys like Callahan deserve to be officially titled ‘all star’.

Gaborik and Lundqvist surely should get the call to head to Ottawa early next year. Anything other than invites for the Rangers marquee talents would be a travesty. Will any of the others get a call? Unfortunately Rangers players rarely get the exposure around the league due to the blue collar reputation the roster has.

It’s assumed this team does things by committee, which it does. However the above list proves that this team has serious skill and top end players too. All this and we’re forgetting a hot streak from Brad Richards and there could be another candidate. The 2011-12 Rangers, they’re pretty stacked you know.

(Spoiler Alert)

People’s irrational hate for John Tortorella has finally started to die down. Obviously the Rangers performance is driving this, but I would like to think 24/7 has helped as well.

Last night’s episode definitely revealed different sides of his personality that we don’t usually get to see or read about. The scene in the film room showed what a great teacher he is and that his compliments are just as strong as his criticisms. And obviously we also got to see a more humanitarian side of him.

What about everyone else? What was your favorite moment? Please don’t say it was Sean Avery getting out of his car.

Enjoy!

#10 Media members who diss bloggers on their blogs.

I never really understood or got involved in some of these wars between actual journalists and fan bloggers, which is as old as the medium itself. Twitter seems to have become the newest battle ground these days and while it’s entertaining, it is also really lame at the same time.

My solution? Settle it on the ice. 

#9 Whoever is in charge of distributing Rangers press-releases

This jab probably won’t win us any favors, but at this point we’ve lost interest in communicating with the organization we cover (pretty objectively I might add).

The sports org I work for distributes our official press releases to fan blogs as most savvy organizations do, but for some reason the team won’t throw us a bone. Hell, we don’t even get a response to our emails. Boo.

#8 Creepy Twitters

I was far from an “early adopter” to Twitter and I am still not a big fan of social networking in general, but I understand its power to promote our site.

Still, one thing I will never get used to is reading tweets from fans begging their favorite athletes to wish them a happy birthday, a wonderful life, or any other sort of motivational nonsense.

Extra creepiness to people who tweet messages of adoration to Sean Avery.   

#7 NHL Marketing Department, if such a department exists…

The Guardian Project was god awful, the NBC contract won’t do anything to grow hockey or promote its stars, and the league’s broadcast restrictions are a joke.

The fact that people who live around Albany have Rangers games blacked out in favor of Sabres telecasts is ridiculous. I know the Sabres are trying to grow their fan base, but seriously, good luck trying to get people to care about a team 6 hours and three snowstorms away.

#6 New York Islanders

Just when you thought the Islanders were turning the corner they take one step forward and five steps back. Their third jerseys are almost as bad the old Fishstick jerseys. Their hopes for a new arena in Nassau are as lost as I am when driving around Nassau, and the decision to open a tattoo shop in the Coliseum further cements their eternal spot in the hockey hall of shame.  

#5 Glendale City Council

Glendale spent $25 million of tax payer dollars to keep the ‘Yotes in Glendale. Too bad they will pack up and leave as soon as that brand spanking new arena is completed in Quebec City.

And people wonder why our government can’t balance a budget…

#4 Hockey Hall of Fame

Not inducting Pat Burns before or the year after he succumbed to cancer was a classless move. Burns had a 501-353-151 record, was a three-time winner of the Jack Adams Award, and obviously coached the Devils to one of their Cup victories.

#3 Vancouver Rioters

Speaking of classless…

#2 Incarcerated Bob

Without WFAN’s backing this guy would be a nobody, but for some reason they give this guy a platform to spew his BS. Recently, Incarcerated Boob tried to spread an ugly rumor about Ryan Callahan’s wife. The rumor obviously went nowhere.

It’s almost sad people actually think Boob is a legitimate insider. Let me assure you that the only suits this guy is in contact with are his lawyers.

#1 Mike Milbury

How this guy is still a representative of hockey after the things he has said and done is beyond me.

So that’s my list of forgettable folk, what’s yours?

With that said, I don’t want to spoil anything for those of you who haven’t watched it yet or who don’t have access to HBO.  Here is the entire episode broken down into 4 parts. Enjoy folks!

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

(Spoiler Alert)

I know we haven’t even scratched the surface yet with getting behind-the-scenes to this hockey club, as Lundqvist, Girardi, Staal, and Sather were either barely visible or notably absent. I am eager to see those personalities in technicolor as well as more from Coach Torts. What’s your take?

Of course I was there on business and I had to put my observations and prejudices aside, but it was hard not to feel like I was behind enemy lines. Once I got over it though, I realized that everything was done with a sense of pride and precision. I admired that.

But then something happened to the Devils organization. For the first time ever they started making money. Revenue from their new arena came in from sponsors, corporate suites, even attendance numbers increased (marginally). Finally the organization that had gotten by on barebones all of a sudden had some resources. Most people thought this would be a good thing…hell a great thing to cement the idea that hockey can succeed in New Jersey without the help of our boys in blue. But as Biggie Smalls once said, “mo money, mo problems.”

It has been reported in small doses that Lou Lamoriello was pushed by ownership to sign Ilya Kovalchuck to that massive 15 year, $100 million deal. Some Rangers fans were bummed that Sather didn’t try to swing a deal, others (like myself) wondered what the hell were the Devils thinking? But I am not here to debate this transaction. For better or worse, Kovy is a Devil till the bitter end.

The problem is the Devils are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by sticking with regimented coaches and defensive systems while boasting a talent such as Ilya. Add to the fact that the team’s finances collapsed and now you’ve got the Caps joining our conference, and it’s easy to see why they could have one hell of a problem across the Hudson.

So what are our rivals to do?

The organization is obviously looking for new investors to fix their financial woes, but the on ice product can improve if they follow a model once used by their biggest rival, the New York Rangers.

The year was 2004 and the star was Jaromir Jagr. The Rangers front office made a wise decision to ship out anyone and everyone associated with past teams and brought in players who Jagr wanted to play with and who understood Jagr was the man. Aside from trading Leetch (I’m still not over it), it was the right direction.

The team was built around Jagr. Czechs were brought in, finesse players were brought in, and an assistant coach/head of player personnel, who understood the dynamics of a star personality, was promoted to run the show.

Coming from the Capitals the media labeled Jagr a locker room cancer, a diva, a player that would never fit into a team concept. Some of that may or may not have been true, but what was missed was Jagr’s competitiveness and his burning desire to win.

Renney was able to convince Jagr to play a more defensive system without the puck. However, unlike the system that was forced upon Jagr in DC, Renney would allow Jagr and his linemates to get creative with the puck. The Rangers would attack the blueline and Regroup if necessary. They would Overload on the powerplay and Jagr was allowed to double shift himself whenever he wanted.

Was this the right way to build a team? Maybe not, but it worked, at least for a few seasons. The point is nothing was forced on Jagr, as Renney didn’t dictate. The Czech superstar had a say.

If the Devils want to have any sort of success with Kovy on their roster, I suggest they start doing the same. The template for their success doesn’t have to be very innovative. It already exists. The problem is, are they willing to copy our old blueprint?

Hmmm, maybe the Caps should follow this plan too.