The Avery Effect

“I know what’s been asked of me, so whenever I get my next opportunity that’s certainly the thing I’m going to have to do. I’m gonna keep that to myself.”

Ever since John Tortorella became head coach, Sean Avery hasn’t been himself. At his best, Avery is an agitator, who can chip in scoring. He can make plays, with his mouth and with his stick. For all his antics, he actually is a really good player.

But, we saw that good player under Tom Renney. Renney didn’t have a leash on Avery. He let him go. That’s part of the problem with Renney. Some said he was too soft. Not on Avery.

So, when Torts was brought in, we all thought he would bring accountability. And he has, to some degree. He benched Avery after his antics in Game 4 of the Washington series (I was at that game. It wasn’t that bad. And the Rangers won, so who cares? But I digress). He’s benching him after his recent bad play.

But, Avery hasn’t been himself. He’s not being as physical. He’s not chatting up the other players. And he’s not scoring. Watch this video:

While I still disagree with what Avery did, it serves a greater point. He was agitating the other team, and then he scored. That was a classic Avery shift (side note: I love when Drury sort of punches Avery, telling him to stop screen Brodeur like that. People say he’s an awful captain, but that’s what a captain does). When Avery was on that 5-on-3, he was in the front of the net, making things happen. He doesn’t do that anymore. And part of it is because of Torts.

I think Torts has been an okay coach for the Rangers. But, his odd way of reprimanding Avery for playing his game, has cost the Rangers points. Why do you think the Rangers have such a bad home record? When Avery is at his best, the crowd is fired up. The crowd hasn’t been fired up lately.

We’ll see what this Avery benching does, to the team and to Sean. If it’s just one game, how will Avery respond? Will he come back as his self? Or will he try to impress Torts, and play a conservative game? So much for Safe is Death.

Playoffs Slipping Away, Draft Position Gets Better

If you have been here long, you know that I am one of the more optimistic Rangers fans. I always try to find the silver lining, and look at the positives. I just can’t do it anymore for this season, not after last night’s embarrassing display of nonchalance and indifference. This team just does not have what it takes to make the playoffs. Sure, they sit in 9th place in the conference, just three points back of the Bruins, but the Bruins have two games in hand on the Rangers. The loss of Marc Savard will hurt them, but their defense and goaltending should help weather that loss. At this point, I’m torn between rooting for the Rangers to win, or hoping they get a lottery pick.

The Rangers have fifteen remaining games, of which seven are against playoff teams, five are against non-playoff teams, and three are against teams in the hunt. As per SportsClubStats (s/t to Jordan for that one), in order to be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, they will need to finish 10-2-3. To at least have a 70% shot at making the playoffs, they will need to finish 10-4-1. The moral of the story here is that the Rangers need to win 10 games to even be in the playoff hunt come April. It’s doable, but unlikely, especially considering what we’ve seen from the Rangers the past few games.

When looking at the draft position, each of the #10 (Atlanta), #11 (Tampa Bay), #12 (Florida), and #13 (Carolina) seeds have games in hand on the Rangers. Of those teams, Atlanta, TB, and Florida can leap frog ahead of the Rangers if they win these games in hand. They also play these three teams once a piece before the season ends. Those three games will have a huge bearing on where the Rangers sit come draft season, or whether the Rangers make the playoffs. Looking at the Western Conference, the only team below the Rangers is Columbus (Edmonton doesn’t count). They sit four points back of the Rangers, with no games in hand. It’s possible that they leap frog the Rangers too, especially if our beloved Blueshirts fail to show up for the remaining fifteen games.

In the end, I can’t root against the Rangers, it’s not in my blood. So I will be cheering for them, and hoping they make the playoffs. But the possibility of someone like Tyler Seguin, or Cam Fowler, or Vladimir Tarasenko is very tempting (Side note: Columbus plays Atlanta tonight, and for those hoping for a lottery pick, pray for an OT game). Any one of those players would greatly improve the Rangers and fill a gigantic hole on the team. Plus, there’s a very good chance they are NHL ready and could make a solid impact next season. But still, I cannot root against the Rangers, even if I think their playoff hopes have been crushed.

Not So Home Sweet Home

Believe it or not, the Rangers have a decent road record. They are actually in the top 50% in the Eastern Conference when it comes to their record away from MSG. However, when they play at the World’s Most Famous Arena, they are an abysmal 14-15-6. They are one of only two teams in the East with a losing record at home, Toronto being the other team. When you compare it to the entire league, only St. Louis and Edmonton are added to that list of teams with a losing record at home.

Let’s break this down a little bit, the Rangers stats at home:

• GP: 35
• GF: 103
• GA: 99

That’s a measly +4 goal differential, not all that impressive, and one of the worst differentials at home in the league. Only Atlanta (+2), Nashville (Even), Montreal (+2), St. Louis (-14), Columbus (-1), Toronto (-14), Calgary (-4), Florida (+4), Islanders (-3), Edmonton (-20), and Boston (-1) have home goal differentials that are equal to or worse than the Rangers. Of course, some of those teams (Columbus, Toronto, NYI, Edmonton) are completely out of the playoff picture this year. The rest of them are in the same position as the Rangers, or slightly better.

Oddly enough, the Rangers are one of the better teams at scoring at home; their 103 goals at home is 8th in the league. It is preventing goals at home that appears to be their downfall. The 99 goals allowed at home is 29th in the league, with only Edmonton allowing more goals at home. To break this down more, the Rangers have allowed 5 shorthanded goals against at home. Only the San Jose Sharks have allowed more.

The powerplay’s effectiveness is thanks to the addition of Marian Gaborik. The shorthanded goals against blame can be placed on John Tortorella, for now. The thinking here is that as the head coach, he is in charge of drawing up an effective strategy that maximizes goals while limiting shorthanded chances against. At some point, blame needs to go on the players, specifically the point men, for allowing odd man rushes by pinching at wrong times, not keeping the zone, and by playing overall poor defense.

What astounds me is that on the road, the Rangers have the exact opposite problem. They can’t score, but are one of the stingiest defensive teams away from MSG. The numbers differ by such a wide margin that it is cause for alarm:

• GP: 31
• GF: 65
• GA: 77

Their 65 GF on the road is 29th in the league (again with Edmonton being worse), while the 77 GA is good for a 5th place tie with Chicago. The -12 goal differential looks ugly, but it’s actually right in the middle of the pack. So, believe it or not, the Rangers are on par with the rest of the league when it comes to road games, which is a main reason why they are one of seven teams in the East with a winning record away from home. It’s a good thing the Rangers only have six home games left, and ten on the road. That schedule may actually play to the Rangers strengths, and get them into the playoffs.

The Worst Case Scenario

Well, the Rangers got another point last night, making it four points out of eight possible thus far. That leaves the Rangers in the #9 seed with 67 points, two points behind Boston, who has two games in hand. The Rangers hold the tie head-to-head tie breaker with Boston, but that’s only if they finish tied in both points and wins at the end of the season. Considering the remaining schedule (10 road games, 8 vs playoff teams), there is a very strong possibility that the Rangers will miss the playoffs. They are going to need a hell of a run, to the tune of 25 points out of the maximum 32 in the remaining schedule. Suffice it to say, the Rangers are going to need a miracle to make the playoffs.

The worst thing they can do to us as fans is continue this OTL stuff. Yes, the points are good, but they need wins, and a full two points. Against some of those opponents, they are going to need to do it in regulation as well. At their current pace, the Rangers are going to get 16 points out of the 32, and finish with 83 points, which will definitely be out of the playoffs. The problem with 83 points is that it probably puts the Rangers as the #24 team in the NHL, just out of the bottom-five and without a shot at the #1 overall pick.

While many of you have voiced your opinions that you want the Rangers to tank the season, I find that to be absurd. How can you actually root for the Rangers to lose? I want them to win, I want them to make the playoffs. Rooting for your team to lose is ludicrous. That said, a top-5 pick would really help this team out. Someone like Tyler Seguin or Cam Fowler would instantly fill a hole on this team. If they don’t get in the top-3, someone like Brett Connolly or Kirill Kabanov might be good enough to crack the roster right away.

There’s so much going through my mind right now about this team. I want them to win, but I want a Tyler Seguin or Cam Fowler. I can’t even organize it into a coherent post. This team is not making the playoffs. Period.

Trading Season Winners and Losers

2010 was a unique trade deadline season. The Olympic roster freeze effectively created two trade deadlines; one before the roster freeze, and the official NHL trade deadline, which was yesterday at 3pm. When picking winners and losers, let’s look at the entire trade season, and not just yesterday’s moves.

Winners

New Jersey Devils: The Devils acquired the best free agent on the market in Ilya Kovalchuk, making them true competitors in the East. They now have the legitimate scoring threat that can compete with Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. With Martin Brodeur in net, the team can go far in the playoffs.

Phoenix Coyotes: Don Maloney sure was busy yesterday. The ‘Yotes picked up Alex Picard, Lee Stempniak, Mathieu Schneider, Derek Morris, and Wojtek Wolski. Leaving Phoenix are Peter Mueller, Kevin Porter, Matt Jones, and more than a few draft picks. Phoenix significantly upgraded their roster, and are going to make a serious push, not just for the playoffs, but for playoff success. Well done Maloney.

Washington Capitals: The Capitals picked up Eric Belanger, Joe Corvo, and reacquired Milan Jurcina. The Corvo and Jurcina additions significantly upgrades the Washington defense, which wasn’t exactly bad to begin with. The pickups also ensure that the Caps will not have to rely significantly on rookie John Carlsson.

New York Rangers: No, I’m not being biased. The Rangers did two things right here: they upgraded their roster, and did not overpay for any rentals. The Rangers acquired Olli Jokinen and Brandon Prust for Ales Kotalik and Christopher Higgins. In doing so, the Rangers upgraded the depth at center and got tougher, while trading away spare parts and a bad contract. By not making any moves yesterday, the Rangers avoided overpaying for rentals to barely make the playoffs. Sometimes the best move you make is the move you DON’T make.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins added significant scoring depth and size with Alexei Ponikarovsky, and upgraded their defense with Jordan Leopold. The price was steep in Luca Caputi, but the Penguins are now deep enough to compete with the Caps after the moves they made.

Losers

Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers made some minor moves at the Olympics, but none at the deadline. With Ray Emery out for the season, the Flyers needed to shore up their goaltending situation, and did not do so.

Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks need goal scoring help, and bad. So they acquired Lubomir Visnovsky? I don’t know.

Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens are, in short, a mess. Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak are RFAs, and only one will be in Montreal next year. Yet, neither was dealt. As for next year, the Habs have just 12 players on roster, and over $43 million committed to those players. How they get out of that mess is beyond me. Yesterday would have been a good start if they were looking to dump some salary.

New York Islanders: The Islanders are not going to make the playoffs, and had several role players with expiring contracts that other teams could have been interested in. Only Andy Sutton was dealt. Meanwhile, Marty Biron and Doug Weight, who could have fetched a decent return, remain on Long Island.

Overall, the trading season was the most active in NHL history, with 30 trades going down yesterday alone. Big names changed cities, and role players were brought in to shore up depth. The race for the postseason is officially underway.

Twenty Games Left

The Olympics are over, and the Rangers push for the playoffs will begin tomorrow in Ottawa. The Rangers currently sit in 10th in the East, with a record of 28-27-7 and 63 points. This puts the Rangers one point behind the 8th place Montreal Canadiens, with a game in hand. The Rangers will also have to leap frog the surprising Tampa Bay Lightning, who also have 63 points, but two games in hand on the Rangers.

In the next 40 days, our beloved Blueshirts will play 20 games. That is a possible 40 points to be earned by the Rangers in this stretch. Considering the way the standings sit, I am guessing that a total of 95 points to be guaranteed a playoff spot, but 93 points should be enough for the #8 seed. That means the Rangers will need to earn 32 points to be in, and 30 points to be on the bubble. That is no easy task.

Of these 20 games, a whopping 12 of them will be against teams currently in the playoffs. An additional two games are against teams just out of the playoffs, and only 8 of these games will be at the friendly confines of MSG. Putting these games aside for a moment, this means that the Rangers must, absolutely must, win all six games against the non-playoff teams (St. Louis, Islanders x 2, Toronto x 2, Florida). That gives the Rangers 12 points. Of the remaining 14 games, the Rangers will need 18 more points out of the possible 28 to just be on the bubble for the post season.

There are two separate stretches that will define the Rangers playoff drive, the first one begins tomorrow in Ottawa, where the Rangers begin a stretch of five games where the weakest opponent will be the Buffalo Sabres, who are securely in the playoffs. The second stretch begins on March 25, where the Rangers will play six straight road games, of which three will be against playoff teams.

The team is going to need stellar performances from Henrik Lundqvist, but will also need some quality starts from newly acquired Alex Auld. If the Rangers add some offense and a crease clearing defenseman at the deadline, then anything is possible.

Can the Rangers “Fight” Their Way into the Playoffs?

With the Olympic break in full swing, and me on vacation (Note: This post was scheduled a while ago, I’m not magically posting from my cruise. I can’t. And even if I could, I wouldn’t.), there were some volunteers to help keep the content here at BSB in full swing until the NHL returns to action. Over the course of the week, you will be seeing posts from readers here. This post is courtesy of Ben, the lead writer at Bettman’s Nightmare, who analyzes the impact of fighting on the Ranger’s success. For those of you who haven’t gone there yet, you should. Ben does a fantastic job of really crunching numbers with the new hockey metrics, and makes sense of it all.

Let’s be honest: the Rangers have rarely been known for their pugilism. Yes, we’ve had Kocur, Barnaby, Colton Orr, Gresch, Kris King, Troy Mallette, Lou Fontinato, even Tie Domi. But so many of them were simply the “fighter-in-residence”; the Rangers were no Flyers from the 70s, Red Wings from the 80s, or Blackhawks of the 90s.

Despite all of this, in recent years we’ve given some attention to adding a rough edge, perhaps in response to the Flyers ridiculous cache of goons. Avery, Brashear, Voros, Boyle, Prust are all guys that throw down and populate our 3rd and 4th lines (if not the 1st and 2nd, in Avery’s case). Have we improved by providing our fans extra knuckle on their MSG sandwich?

Taking the data from game scoresheets and the wonderful site www.hockeyfights.com, I decided to throw together information on this year’s fights to see if, on the surface, they appear to be helping.

First things first, I was curious to see whether the fight was won by our player. Thankfully, Hockey Fights uses a nifty little polling system to determine whether the fight was won, lost, or a draw. I’ll combine this later with our next part of the calculation.

Next, I took down the time of the fight and determined the number of goals scored for and against the Rangers for the remainder of the period. In determining whether the fight provided a “boost,” I concluded that it is much harder to isolate a fight as a sole or main cause for a “boost” after a period break. Torts could get inspiring, who knows? If the score over the remainder was in the Rangers favor, I gave a +1; if it was not, I gave it a -1. If it was tied, it received a 0.

It got more complicated when I considered multiple fights, or fights close together. In those cases, I put them together as one event to be sure they didn’t count twice positively or negatively. More importantly, if there were two fights before a 1 to 0 finish to the period, I only counted the latter fight as a +1. In the end, I had “Fight +/-“ for the team up to this point in the season.

My argument for this basic metric is that I understand that the fight is not the only influence to positive play, but that over a substantial number of fights we should see the “boost” emerge. I was also curious to see whether winning the fight mattered to this “boost.” It’s worth noting that while I might be giving fighting too much credit for positive scores, I’m likewise subtracting for negative scores.

To add some spice to my life (and sarcasm to the current post), I kept track of the Ranger fights’ win-loss-draw record, as well as individual win-loss-draw records. Furthermore, I had individual player Fight +/-, and the Rangers’ Fight +/- when our player won the fight, lost it, or fought to a draw. So, here we go:

Rangers Win-Loss-Draw…39 Fights, 12 Wins, 18 Losses, 9 Draws
- Rangers Win-Loss record in games where a fight occurred: 11 Wins, 14 Losses

Rangers Fight +/- (F+/-)…-3
F+/- from fights “won”…-8
F+/- from fights “lost”…+5
F+/- from fights “drawn”…0

Sean Avery – 4W-2L-1D F+/-…-4
Donald Brashear – 3-4-2…+1
Aaron Voros – 2-4-4…+1
Brandon Prust – 1-1-1…-1
Brian Boyle – 1-2-0…0
Brandon Dubinsky – 1-0-0…0
Dane Byers – 0-1-0…0
Ryan Callahan – 0-1-0…0
Marian Gaborik – 0-1-0…0
Matt Gilroy – 0-1-0…0
Wade Redden – 0-1-0…0

As you can see, in the bigger picture the Rangers don’t appear to benefit from fighting. In fact, of the teams I have looked at in this manner so far (including the Penguins, Flyers, Ducks, Rangers, and Flames), only the Flames registered a positive composite F+/- (of +1). The Penguins finished the lowest, with a -5.

Other observations: there doesn’t seem to be a correlation for us between winning fights and playing well afterwards (which is a good thing since we’re 12-18-9 in fights anyway). We seem to like getting beat up. Also, Avery is our best fighter, yet we don’t seem to get a “boost” from him. At all.

Essentially, no, we can’t “fight” our way into the playoffs.

Thoughts On Jokinen

Now that the Jokinen trade is official, I thought I would provide my thoughts on the trade. And it’s pretty simple: Win for Glen Sather. Glen Sather may suck in free agency, but the man knows what he’s doing in trades. Jokinen for Higgins and Kotalik would be simply unheard of a couple months ago.

I’ve maintained that Jokinen is essentially being swapped for Higgins. Kotalik doesn’t play. Jokinen is a HUGE upgrade over Higgins. I like Higgins. He’s a hard worker. Good penalty killer. Can’t hit the side of a barn, though. Jokinen is a scorer. He scored 29 goals last year. Calgary wasn’t working for him. He and Iginla didn’t mesh, and he only has 11 goals. I expect that to dramatically change.  Jokinen is more of a fit with Gaborik. I think Jokinen can put up some points.

Put it this way: The Rangers made a push towards the playoffs, without sacrificing their youth. Kotalik was a bust. Higgins was a bust. They gave up nothing for one of the better players in the league. To me, that’s a winning deal.

Trade for Short and Long Term

If you haven’t heard that the Rangers traded Ales Kotalik and Christopher Higgins for Olli Jokinen and Brandon Prust, then you probably are living under a rock. Regardless, this trade kills two birds with one stone. It attempts to address one hole on the Rangers, a need for more scoring. Jokinen is having a very weak season, but his potential as a point-per-game player is what makes him enticing. Jokinen’s best years were in Florida, where he was playing with a goal scorer in Nathan Horton. Horton and Jokinen’s old linemate, Jarome Iginla, play very different styles of hockey. Iginla is a power forward, and it appears that the style just did not mesh with Jokinen. In New York, Jokinen will probably be playing with Marian Gaborik, a player who’s style is more akin to that of Horton than that of Iginla. Who knows, maybe Jokinen meshes with Gaborik. Maybe he doesn’t. It’s a gamble, but a safe gamble.

The second bird here is that the Rangers have successfully cleared $3 million in cap space going into the 2010 offseason. This leaves the Rangers with a little over $10 million in cap space to fill up the rest of the roster (15 players signed for 2010-2011), whereas the Ranges only had $7 million prior to the trade (16 players signed). The cap space gained is more than likely going to Marc Staal, who is an RFA at the end of the year.

The cap problem is a problem that Glen Sather has brought on himself, but he has been able to rectify some of these mistakes via trade, which is a great strength of his. The Rangers still have cap problems, with two of these players being unmovable, but considering the hole he dug himeslf, Sather is doing a decent job of at least attempting to dig himself out. Chris Drury is not going anywhere, and neither is the $7 million cap hit. If Wade Redden goes anywhere, it’s to Hartford, because no team in their right mind is going to take him. Essentially, Redden is going nowhere. Michal Rozsival is the most tradeable asset, but it is unlikely he is dealt. Considering the Rangers are still rebuilding (and they are, most of these prospects are still 2-3 years away), you have to make the best of this bad cap situation.

When it comes to this trade, you have to look at it with these questions: Are the Rangers a better team after this trade? Are the Rangers in a better situation coming to this offseason, and future offseasons after this trade? The answer, to both these questions, is yes. Without a doubt, yes.

Assuming Jokinen Is A Ranger, What’s Next?

We can’t be entirely sure if Olli Jokinen will be a Ranger, but signs are pointing that way. As a refresher, the deal was: Jokinen and Brandon Prust to Broadway, and Ales Kotalik and Chris Higgins going out to Calgary. I love this deal. Jokinen, who is essentially replacing Higgins, since Kotalik doesn’t play anymore, is a very good player, who can set up with the best of them. Prust is a more physical version of Voros. Higgins, while a good penalty killer and a hard worker, was expendable. He wasn’t scoring. Kotalik, as we all know, just wasn’t working out. After the first couple of weeks, his shot from the point was hitting the net, and he’s next to useless on even strength. So, in my mind, this is another home run trade for Glen Sather.

Of course, this trade begs the question: Where will Jokinen play? And what will the lines look like? Here’s my early take:

Prospal-Jokinen-Gaborik

Avery-Dubinsky-Callahan

Lisin-Anisimov-Drury

Prust-Christensen-Boyle

Jokinen and Gaborik are a natural fit. That’s a great 1-2 punch–one of the better ones in the league. I’ve always wanted to see Avery with Dubi and Cally. That’s a hell of a hardworking line. The 3rd line is a good 3rd line. Anisimov seems to have chemistry with Lisin, and the defensive prowess of Drury allows Lisin to do more in the offensive end.  The fourth line is kind of a mish-mosh. Don’t want to see Voros back in the press box, but Prust is a better player. Christensen has proven himself enough, and I love Boyle. Brashear sits.

Is this team better with the acquisition of Jokinen? Yes. Much better. So much better. Best part? They didn’t sacrifice the future. The Rangers still need to add a defenseman (or two). And he has to be physical. Garnet Exelby from Toronto for a 4th rounder anyone?