Category: Analysis

Halfway There Report Card: The Defense

With the halfway point of the season upon us (for the most part), and the Rangers in first place, it’s as good of a time as any to begin with the mid-point report cards. We are going to do these in a series of posts, with Chris covering the top six forwards, Suit covering the bottom six forwards, Justin covering the goalies, and myself covering the defense.

The Rangers have used a whopping 11 defensemen since the season started. This is mostly due to the Marc Staal injury, but other injuries along the way have forced the Rangers’ hand. Despite the obvious disadvantage, the Rangers have allowed just 82 goals against, good for second in the league. The Bruins top this, but let’s be honest: The Bruins are in a class above everyone else right now.  Let’s get to those grades:

Marc Staal: He’s played just a handful of games. Everyone knows he’s the rock on defense, and the Rangers just upgraded tremendously with him coming back. Grade: INC.

Dan Girardi: With Staal out indefinitely, the blue line was put in Girardi’s hands…and boy did he deliver. Girardi has been flawless in his own end. He plays the most minutes in the entire league, he plays against top competition, he consistently shuts down that top opposition, he has been contributing offensively, and he has been a leader for this young Rangers team. Grade: A+.

Ryan McDonagh: Staal’s injury opened up a spot for McDonagh on the top pairing, and he has been sensational in that role. He and Girardi have clicked, and aside from a few poor games, McDonagh has been a monster. Rick Carpiniello of LoHud calls him McMonster, and that’s exactly what he is. Throw in his growing offensive skills, and this sophomore defenseman has been a tremendous pickup. Thank you Mr. Gomez. Grade: A.

Michael Del Zotto: Another player that was forced to play up a pairing due to injury, Del Zotto has also been phenomenal. He leads the defensemen in scoring, and is fifth on the team in that same category with 23 points (5-18-23). He leads the team in assists, plus/minus, fan girls, and haters. Seriously, what else does this kid need to do? Sure, he makes a bad pass every now and then, but he’s 22 years old. I’ll take this from a 22 year old any day. Grade: A.

Mike Sauer: Currently out with a concussion, Sauer was the rock on the blue line that most thought was the reason for Del Zotto’s re-emergence.  Although Del Zotto has succeeded without Sauer in the lineup, Sauer is still an integral part of the Rangers blue line. He doesn’t put up the fancy numbers that Del Zotto does, he doesn’t garner the All Star consideration that Girardi does, but he just does his job. The best thing you can say about a defensive defenseman is that you don’t notice him, and rarely does Sauer go noticed. Grade: A.

Steve Eminger: Eminger had an atrocious start to the year. He just couldn’t do anything right, and was a bit of a whipping boy ’round these parts. However, when Sauer went down with his concussion, Emmy stepped up. Much like last year with the Michal Rozsival injury, Eminger assumed top four minutes and played like a champ. His start hurts his grade, but he gets significant bonus points for his ability to play up to his role, no matter what. His injury was supposed to be the one that crippled the Rangers, who were already without Staal and Sauer, but it didn’t. Grade: B.

Jeff Woywitka:Serviceable, reliable, tough, and surprisingly reliable. Much like Eminger, Woywitka was a whipping boy here after his poor start to the season. However, unlike Eminger, he played better as he got used to the John Tortorella way of life, and has been a great bottom pairing guy since. Maybe he has received too much ice time because of injuries, but the Rangers sure haven’t noticed. Kudos to Woywitka for persevering, and earning his continued stay with the Blueshirts. Grade: B.

Anton Stralman: Signed as a free agent a few weeks into the season, no one knew what to expect from Stalman. After a few weeks with the team, it was clear that Tortorella wasn’t a big fan, a point confirmed on HBO’s 24/7 last week. However as he has played, he has grown into a player that is not only reliable, but someone that Tortorella can play top-four minutes without hesitation. Stralman has been paired with Del Zotto, and both have flourished. Martin Biron might be the best offseason acquisition in a while, but the signing of Stralman might be the most underappreciated. Grade: A-.

Stu Bickel: The last man cut from the blue line in the preseason, Bickel earned a call up following Eminger’s separated shoulder and Woywitka’s bruised foot forced the Rangers’ hand. Bickel has been a physical presence on the blue line that has rarely made a mistake. He’s still a rookie, and yes his mistakes have and will come, but the Rangers couldn’t have asked for more from him. With Sauer out, Bickel has replaced that physicality that was sorely missing. Grade: B+.

Tim Erixon: He played in the beginning of the year when Sauer was out, and most recently while Woywitka was out. It’s clear he’s still not ready for the big show, but he’s a promising young defenseman that has done many things right. He’s only played 13 games, but it’s apparent the Rangers have a serious NHL player on their hands. Grade: INC.

Brendan Bell: Played one game. Grade: INC.

*Here is Justin’s mid-season report for the goalies & Suit’s report for our bottom six forwards. Stay tuned for reports on our top 6 forwards and our coaches.

A Look At The NYR GVT/PVT Leaders

With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.

*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>

Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:

Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT

Rk Player GP OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT PVT
1 Michael Del Zotto 36 3.6 4 0 7.6 2.5
2 Ryan McDonagh 36 2.7 2 0 4.7 1.6
3 Dan Girardi 36 0.6 2.1 0 2.7 0.9
4 Anton Stralman 13 0.7 1.6 0 2.4 0.8
5 Jeff Woywitka 26 1.3 0.5 0 1.8 0.6
6 Stu Bickel 6 1 0.6 0 1.7 0.6
7 Michael Sauer 19 0 1.7 0 1.7 0.6
8 Steve Eminger 30 -0.1 0.9 0 0.8 0.3
9 Brendan Bell 1 -0.1 -0.1 0 -0.2 -0.1
10 Tim Erixon 13 -0.6 0.1 0 -0.5 -0.2

Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.

Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.

As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.

Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.

Analysis of the forwards after the jump

First In The Division And Conference: By The Numbers

With the win last night against the Flyers, the Rangers are now in first place in the Atlantic Division, first place in the Eastern Conference (Bruins have two games in hand), and tied for first in the NHL with the Chicago Blackhawks (who have a game in hand). The Rangers are doing this with balanced scoring, incredible defense, and the best goaltending duo in the league. But more importantly, they are a team that is winning the games they need to win.

The Rangers worst month of the season was October, where they went 4-3-3. This was mainly due to the travel schedule, as the Rangers just looked gassed and jet lagged. They followed October up with a 9-2 November, second in the league to the Bruins and their 12-0-1 November record (you’ll notice the Rangers are second to the Bruins in a lot as we go through this). December was also a dominant month for the Rangers, who went 10-4-1 while facing mainly playoff caliber competition.

Against the Atlantic Division, the Rangers are 8-1, which includes three wins against the Flyers. If the Rangers lose just one of those games, there’s a tie for first place in the division and conference. The one loss is against an Islanders team that will not make the playoffs. So the remaining five wins have come against the Penguins (playoff bound) and the Devils (borderline). That’s eight wins against playoff bound teams in the conference. Not too shabby.

Against the rest of the conference, the Rangers are 11-5-2. The only playoff team they have not faced is the Bruins, and they will be in Boston later this month to square off against them. With two losses against Toronto, the Rangers record against the Northeast (Boston’s division) is just 3-3-1, which represents the worst record the Rangers have against an Eastern Conference Division. The 8-2-1 record against the Southeast isn’t too shabby either when you consider the Panthers and Capitals are both playoff bound.

Their 19-6-2 record against the Eastern Conference is the best record in the conference, even better than those same Bruins (18-7-0).

The Rangers have essentially played .500 hockey against the Western Conference (5-3-2), which is middle of the road for the Eastern Conference teams. But the Rangers do hold convincing wins over Vancouver (4-0) and San Jose (5-2); with an additional win over playoff bound Phoenix. This is in stark contrast to seasons past where the Rangers struggled against the Western Conference teams.

The Rangers have a +31 goal differential, second in the conference to Boston (at +55…which is absurd), and fourth in the league (Vancouver, Detroit). The Rangers are 10th in scoring with 110 goals, and also 10th in the league when you adjust for the shootout “goal” awarded.

It’s goals against that sets the Rangers apart. They are second in the league with just 79 goals allowed, with just those Bruins ahead of them (a measly 68 goals allowed…also absurd).

The Eastern Conference is becoming a showdown between the Rangers and the Bruins. The game on January 21 (which I will be in attendance for) has incredible implications for playoff seeding. As the Rangers get healthy, they could push the defending Stanley Cup champions for the regular season conference crown.

But that’s just the regular season. The playoffs is where it needs to get done.

Expect Avery To Be Waived When Wolski Is Activated

 Update 6:45pm: Per commenter Adam, he noted that only Staal is on LTIR, not Wolski. So the cap information here is irrelevant. Only roster space needs to be cleared. I still think Avery is the one to go, but it could be Erik Christensen as well.

The holiday roster freeze ends tomorrow, and the Rangers will have several moves to make to not only free up space for players returning from injury, but to free up the cap space that is required to activate those players. While most of the focus will be on the blue line –and rightfully so– there will be some movement among the forwards as well.

The roster move that is going to have major implications for the Rangers is the activation of Wojtek Wolski, who has been making significant progress on his sports hernia injury. He was skating earlier this month, and the rumors were that he could be back this week. That means his $3.8 million salary comes off LTIR, and the Rangers will need to clear space to get there.

The activation of Wolski also means that the Rangers will have 24 players on the roster, not including players on LTIR. The NHL roster limit is 23 players, so right there the Rangers have to make moves to get under that limit. Since there are 15 forwards on the roster right now, including Wolski, a forward will have to be demoted. To clear the cap space, only one roster move among the forwards needs to be made, and it’s the simple move of waiving Sean Avery (GASP!).

All sarcasm aside, waiving Avery is the only move that makes sense. It clears cap space and roster space for Wolski. It is the only move that can be made to clear enough room for Wolski. In fact, it may not be enough. Tim Erixon and his $1.75 million salary may also need to be returned to the CT Whale to make room.

Those two moves will leave the Rangers with 14 forwards and 6 defensemen on the roster. Now of course, it is going to be VERY interesting to see what the Rangers do to clear room for Marc Staal and his $3.975 million salary.

Brandon Dubinsky: The Case Of Unlucky And Not Shooting

Editor’s Note: This post was written prior to the Rangers/Flyers game last night. The numbers reflected in Dubinsky’s shot total and shooting percentage may be different when this post is published. However, they should not be that far off, barring a 5 goal night for the struggling center/winger.

There have been enough games played in the NHL season where we can start looking at shooting percentage and how it relates to performance. Using shooting percentage, we can see who is playing a bit over their heads, and who could be due for a big second half. Hockey can be a streaky game, and those with career highs in shooting percentage are likely to drop off a bit, while those with career lows can expect to see the puck bounce their way a bit more.

When looking at the latter, it’s tough to ignore Brandon Dubinsky, who is converting at a measly 3.9% of all shots taken (2 goals on 51 shots). There are two things that jump out here. First is the shooting percentage, which is a full six points below his career average (9.5%), but eight points below his percentage from last year (11.9%) and nine points below his numbers from 2009-2010 (12.1%). Basically, Dubinsky is getting unlucky. There could be a number of reasons for this, all of which are speculative at best. What we do know is that his shooting percentage is far below what he normally produces.

The second, and likely the most alarming, is the number of shots. Dubinsky is a shot taker, having never dropped below 150 shots taken. Last season he took 202 shots, and in 2009-2010 he took 165 shots in just 69 games (196 shot pace). To put things in perspective, that’s about 2.3 shots per game in those two seasons. This year, Dubi is averaging just 1.5 shots per game.

Generally when looking at stats like these, we talk about regression to the mean; ie: playing slightly above career averages and suspecting that there will be a cold streak to balance out the average numbers. However in Dubinsky’s case, this appears to be the exact opposite. Dubinsky is a prime candidate for progression to the mean, which means more shots as he gains more confidence, and hopefully more goals as his shot percentage climbs.

Taking this a step further, we can look at his ice time. In the Thursday game against the Islanders, when he was moved back up to the second line, Dubinsky played 13:56 at even strength with Brian Boyle and John Mitchell as his linemates. That’s a far cry from the Ryan Callahan/Artem Anisimov combo he played with last season. Dubi also received just 49 seconds of powerplay time, and none of that being with the top unit.

Ice time is earned, not given. Dubinsky has not earned more ice time yet. However, as his numbers (hopefully) return to the mean, he will get that ice time, and in turn be more productive. To get more ice time, Dubi simply needs to put more pucks on net. He’s averaging a full shot less per game than last year, and for whatever reason seems to be afraid to pull the trigger. A shooting Dubi is a productive Dubi. If we see shots, we could see a monster second half from him.

What’s Wrong With Ruslan Fedotenko?

When the Rangers signed Ruslan Fedotenko out of his PTO last year, it was a hotly debated topic. In fact, it spawned one of our most controversial and most active posts at that time, and it even led to a bet with me and a Penguins fan. I lost the bet (Fedotenko didn’t get to 15 goals), but it didn’t matter: Fedotenko was one of the best offseeason bargains of the 2010-2011 season.

His play earned him another one year contract for this season, and very few could see any downside in that. His chemistry with Brian Boyle and Brandon Prust was evident, and to be honest, the Rangers needed bodies to fill out the roster. However, this year the Ruslan Fedotenko that we knew last year is nowhere to be found. He seems to be gripping his stick a little too tight, and more often than not we are seeing him fan on shots, or just shank them altogether.

The good news is that Fedotenko’s defensive play has still been stellar. He is second on the team in regards to quality of competition faced (QUALCOMP of .060), while playing with the second worst quality of teammates (QUALTEAM of -.366). His Relative Corsi (a stat reflective of puck possession) is not good (-17.4), meaning that there are more shots directed at the Rangers net when he is on the  ice as opposed to off the ice. His Corsi isn’t indicative of much though, considering the quality of opponents and teammates he plays with.

Looking at his starts and finishes in the offensive zone, Fedotenko starts 44.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone, but finishes 47.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone. To analyze this with his Corsi (puck possession), what this means is that although Fedotenko starts less than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone, he still manages to finish more shifts in the offensive zone, despite not having puck possession for the majority of the shift.  To break this down further, basically Fedotenko’s shifts consist of containing top competition from scoring, gaining puck control, gaining the zone, then dumping the puck for a change. It’s a tough job, but someone needs to do it. And Fedotenko does it just fine.

However, that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. Fedotenko has been demoted to fourth line duties with Prust and the newly acquired/returned Mike Rupp, and played just nine shifts in last night’s win over the Islanders (a total of 5:32 in ice time).  This is down from his 14 shifts and 9:19 in ice time against the Devils on Tuesday, and 19/13:33 in Phoenix. It’s tough to really explain the lack of ice time, other than John Tortorella’s style of not playing his fourth line too much. That’s not to place blame on the coach per se, but it is a potential explanation nonetheless.

It’s the coaches job to find the right mix of lines and ice time that get the team going. The Rangers have won three in a row heading into tonight’s pre-Winter Classic showdown with the Flyers, where Fedotenko will presumably have his hands full with the Claude Giroux line. But for those, including myself, asking what exactly is wrong with Fedotenko, the answer is nothing. The biggest difference is that we don’t see it on the stat sheet. Fedotenko is still an important cog on the machine that is the Rangers. Defensive play is often understated and underappreciated, and it appears to be the case with Fedotenko this season.

Misconceptions About How Ice Time Is Earned

It seems like there are some common misconceptions with regards to how Torts distributes ice time among his forwards. I figured I would cherry-pick a few of our reader’s comments and explain some of the logic behind how ice time is earned on this team.

Keep in mind I am not trying to call people out for their opinions; I am just using these quotes as a point of reference.

Misconception #1 – Salary Plays A Role In Ice time

“If Torts is gonna have to play guys according to their $$$$$ (think Dubi) he should go back to CT.

Let’s ignore the “sending Dubi to the Whale” comment and focus on the salary part of this sentence. One of the reasons why I prefered Torts over Tom Renney had to do with income being irrelevant when it comes to earning ice time. If the above statement were true, then Drury and Redden would still be on the team and Dubi would not have seen his minutes decrease over the last couple of weeks.

Renney preferred to lean on his veterans, which is why guys like Redden, Rozi, and Gomer were rarely ever scratched, let alone riding pine. Torts on the other hand has proven time and time again that if our youth plays well, they will see their minutes go up. Point in case Hagelin is getting PK time, Stepan’s on the first line, MDZ is on the power play, etc.

Misconception #2- Not All Players Are Created Equal

“My main complaint is not Dubi here, its more the way Torts doesn’t treat everyone the same.”

Gaborik was benched the other night against Buffalo during the second period because his turnover lead to a goal. If that wasn’t enough to prove that no one man is greater than this team, then I don’t know what will. Torts has a very long history on both the Rangers and in Tampa for benching players for lackadaisical play.

Now as far as a guy’s place on the depth chart is concerned, I think people will often have an affinity for a bottom six player, like a Boyle or an Avery, and wonder why they don’t get more ice time if they are playing well. It’s all about what your individual role is on this team and what your expected output is given that role.

Consistent play will earn you more ice time within your given role. Dave had a great example of this yesterday regarding the utilization of Erik Christensen over Sean Avery. Avery’s role is to agitate. Special teams is not a place where agitating is a necessary skill set.  So his total ice time can only climb so high.

Misconception #3- Lack Of Offense Equals Less Ice Time

If another player is doing better they should play. You earn your ice time. If WoWo earns it he should play.

While normally this quote would be true, there are shades of grey here. If a top 6 player isn’t scoring, they shouldn’t be demoted or benched if they’re playing well in all three zones. Dubinsky is a classic example of this. He was playing well earlier in the season. He wasn’t scoring goals, but he was making plays, forechecking, & playing solid defense. People called for his demotion to the fourth line because he wasn’t scoring, but it was premature. Torts had confidence in him and stuck with him.

The last week or two his play away from the puck started to plateau and he was coasting. Luckily other players were stepping up and were more deserving of ice time. The result was his demotion to the fourth line, which at that point was the right thing to do. But now we are getting to the point where we need Dubi to get going offensively, because like I said in Misconception #2, his role is to provide secondary scoring. I think if he plays a few hard-nosed games he will eventually move up.

So I guess to sum this all up, when it comes to ice time things aren’t always black and white. But if you think about these three examples, you should have a better idea of what it takes to see your guy out on the ice more often.

Comparing Avery’s And Christensen’s Ice Time

When looking at the raw ice time numbers, there are a lot of conclusions drawn about the ice time given to Sean Avery (over the last few games) and Erik Christensen (last night). There were a few angry tweets from what appears to be the majority of fans thinking that Avery got the shaft because he received so little ice time, while Christensen is clearly favored because of the ice time he got last night.

Looking at the total ice time, it’s easy to see why people would jump to those conclusions. In Buffalo, Avery received just six shifts for a grand total of 3:48 of ice time. Last night at the Garden, Christensen received 16 shifts for a total of 12:54 in ice time. Looking at those numbers alone, it would appear that Christensen indeed has more favor with the coach than Avery. But looking deeper at the numbers, that’s not exactly true.

Against the Sabres, Avery played each of his six shifts at even strength, and did not receive one shift on the powerplay or on the penalty kill. Two shifts at even strength per period is exactly what is expected of a fourth line player who does not receive –or deserve– any time on special teams, especially in a game that was not decided until the third period. That in itself is why Avery’s ice time appears to be diminished.

Looking at Christensen, it’s easy to see why he has more ice time: he plays the powerplay. In last night’s win over Florida, the Rangers had three powerplays. One went the full two minutes, one went 1:08, and the last one went 1:55. That’s a total of 5:03 of powerplay time for the Rangers throughout the game. Christensen received an extra 1:29 of powerplay time. That plays into his extra ice time.

Another aspect of his increased ice time last night: The Rangers blew out the Panthers. The game was decided long before the third period began, so coach John Tortorella began playing his fourth line more often. In a non-blowout situation, a coach generally rolls his lines in a 1-2-3, 1-2-3-4 pattern. What that means is that he will play his first line, second line, and third line in a row. Then he will start again with his first line, and go through to his fourth line. This rotation generally repeats itself.

*-Naturally there is more to this (matchups, special teams), but for the sake of this post I’m simplifying it.

With the game out of reach for the Panthers, Tortorella ditched the usual rotation and rolled his fourth line more often, giving Christensen more ice time late in the second period and for the entirety of the third period. This explains his 11:25 of even strength TOI.

Let’s remember that before Christensen wound up a healthy scratch, his last game was the 2-1 loss to Florida last month. He played just 8:01 during the game, with 6:05 coming at even strength. That’s an extra two shifts over Avery’s ice time from Buffalo. This was Christensen’s first game in a month, where Avery played in each of the games that he was a healthy scratch.

Let’s also remember that these are fourth line players, and neither will be with the club next year. Perspective is important too.

Callahan Exceeding Expectations

So the title of this post may get a lot of puzzling looks. How can Ryan Callahan be exceeding expectations? Well, simply put, I don’t think anyone expected him to be this effective this year. We all knew he would continue to block shots, play on the penalty kill, and play a physical game, but it’s the offensive aspects of his game that have really taken off.

Let’s be honest, not many thought Cally could reproduce what he did last year. Prorated to 82 games –he played just 60– his numbers project out to 30-34-64, which is much more than most expect of the fourth round pick. But yet here he is 25 games in with 11 goals and 19 points; well on his way to reaching the 30 goal and 60 point marks, barring injury.

The numbers are good, but it’s his play offensively without the puck that impresses the most. On the powerplay and at even strength, you can find Cally along the boards –expected– or in front of the net providing effective screens for shooters. It’s something that we may have expected of Cally, but defintiely not to be this effecient at it. Cally is causing havoc in front of the net, which is leaving opportunities for Brad Ricahrds to bury some goals.

The Captain is doing it all, and fans in New York have fallen in love with him –for good reason. I recall a conversation I had with a friend that Cally was going to peak at 20-25 goals and roughly 50 points, and that Brandon Dubinsky would be the offensive force for this team. Two years later, Cally is the consistent offensive force, and Dubinsky is on the fourth line as one of the streakiest players on the team. It may be early in the season, but Cally is definitely exceeding expectations of those around him. Let’s see what he can do for a full season, and hope he doesn’t get injured.

Winning Face Offs, Winning Games

Last season, the Rangers were one of the worst teams in the league at taking face offs. In fact, they were in the bottom five of the league, winning less than 50% of their face offs (47.7%). This year, the Rangers are in the top ten in face offs, winning 51.2% thus far. Face off wins lead to more puck possession, less play in your end, and more offensive chances. These wins mean even more on special teams.

The addition of Brad Richards to the Rangers this year has significant helped in the face off circle, where he leads the team with a 54.1% win rate. Brian Boyle (53.1%) and Brandon Dubinsky (52.1%) are the other Rangers over 50% on draws. Comparing this to last year, only Dubinsky was above 50% among the regular face off takers.

While adding Richards has been an incredible help in the circle, one cannot overlook the improvement that Brian Boyle has made in the dot. Last year Boyle’s face off percentage was just 48.5%, meaning he has increased his winning percentage by just under 5%…no small feat there. The consistency of Dubinsky and the addition of Richards compounds this, and the Rangers have become one of the best face off teams in the league.

Even Derek Stepan, who won just 38.5% of his face offs last year, has shown significant improvement in this area. Sure Stepan is still way under 50% (43.8%), but improvement is improvement, and this is another 5% uptick in efficiency on the draw. Even Artem Anisimov (44.5% last year, 47.7% this year) has shown improvement.

With such a young team, all anyone can ask for is improvement from the kids, and consistency from the veterans. Richards and Dubinsky have been providing that consistency, while the kids are getting better and better. Regression to the mean is possible for Boyle, and it is unlikely that he can maintain his 53% win rate, but even if he drops to 50%, it’s still an upgrade from last year.

As the Rangers enter a much more difficult schedule, winning face offs is going to become even more crucial. The majority of the teams they will face in their upcoming eight game stretch have very potent offenses that can make the Rangers pay if given too many opportunities. Puck possession limits those opportunities, and winning face offs is a critical component of puck possession. Such a small aspect of the game plays such a large role, it’s the beauty of the sport.