The Myths Of The General Manager Job

One of the fun parts of being a fan is making up your own trade ideas. I am not the first to say that these ideas never work out, nor will I be the last. It is very difficult for GMs in the league to make a trade, let alone do one on a whim with very little research and preparation, like most of the trade proposals that come from fans. I do it all the time too (I almost never post them), and I have yet to hit any on the head.

The reason is that for a trade to work, there are many factors that we know, but even more that we don’t know. We, as fans, only know what we read about. Everything else is assumed. The GMs have scouts telling them what they like, they have owners telling them about any internal salary cap, they have coaches telling them who needs to stay or who needs to go, they have club president’s telling them any of the above. However, all that is internal.

What tends to plague a lot of these trade scenarios –that for some reason turn into rumors via the power of the internet– is that they assume too much. J.C. Bradbury at the now defunct Sabernomics published an article about the top four myths for GMs in baseball, but the myths themselves apply to every sport:

• GMs can buy low and sell high – This is my favorite myth, because it’s something that I’ve been trying to get across for a while. GMs are not morons, they understand when someone is slumping or streaking. Mistakes happen, and will always happen, but the notion that GMs sell based on peaks and valleys is ludicrous. So, in summary, Mats Zuccarello’s trade value (minimal) hasn’t gone down because of his slow start (his trade value was never really that high). Also, Erik Christensen’s trade value won’t go up with a hot streak. Brian Boyle doesn’t magically net a great return until he scores 20 goals for a second time.
• The number of free agents at a position affects the price of free agents at a position – A little background about me, I have an MBA with a concentration in marketing, so determining market value is something I’ve been taught. That said, this generally applies in real life, it’s the law of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the less the cost. That is not the case when the demand is limited, and when the supply originates from the demand. For every UFA, there is a team that needs to fill that spot on their roster. Not every UFA is going to find a new home, but the demand is still there.
• Every trade has a winner and a loser – Trades are made because both sides believe they can better their teams, be it now or in the future. No GM makes a trade with the intent of harming their franchise, except for Mike Milbury. Players may not pan out the way the GM has planned, but that doesn’t mean the intent to make the team better was nonexistent.
• Players peak at 27 and old players are worthless – Veterans are a necessity to any Cup contender. They provide necessary leadership and experience that is invaluable in the playoffs. Short term deals are preferable here, but that 30 year old superstar who was superb last season is more than likely going to be just as good this year.

I’m going to add my own myth here: Other teams want your teams scraps. They don’t, or else there would be a waiver wire pickup.

Big time S/T to the guys at River Ave Blues for finding this article three years ago.

The NBA Lockout Does Not Necessarily Help The NHL

There seems to be a lot of talk on the interwebs about how the NBA lockout is going to positively affect the NHL. The logic here is that with the  NBA gone, there will be more people tuning in to watch hockey and that the major sports networks (note: network, singular, as in ESPN) will be forced to cover hockey to fill their programming schedules. The logic is sound, but incredibly flawed with a lot of assumptions. Let’s break down these assumptions:

Assumption #1: People will watch hockey. This is just blatantly untrue in most cases. Hockey is a lot like soccer in the US, it is a niche sport that has die hard fans, and casual fans that love to watch a big hit, pretty goal, or exciting international competitions (the Olympics).  The NBA lockout will not force more people to watch hockey, it only affects those that had to make a choice between watching the NBA or the NHL when their teams played on the same day. The NHL ratings will likely go widely unaffected by the NBA lockout.

Assumption #2: ESPN will start covering hockey. False. Comcast/NBC/Versus/NBC Sports has an exclusive contract with the NHL. Games will air on channels under their umbrella only. ESPN will not go out of their way to promote a sport in which they will not cover for the next decade, especially a sport that does not have the same following as the NFL/NBA/MLB.  It’s purely a business decision.

Let’s also remember that this joint venture of Comcast/NBC is now a direct competitor to the Disney/ESPN/ABC empire in the sports media world. ESPN will not be doing Comcast any favors, and that includes hockey coverage. If you were hoping for a return of NHL 2NIGHT, then your hopes were for naught.

Assumption #3: ESPN will put more hockey highlights on Sportscenter. This is only partially true. The baseball season ends in November, but there is NCAA football, NCAA basketball, and NFL football still going on. The NCAA football season ends in January, and the NFL season ends in February. There will be plenty of sporting events for Sportscenter to cover in lieu of the NBA. Common wisdom suggests that the NHL will get more coverage during the week, when there are no NCAA football or NFL games to review/preview. However, Friday-Tuesday will be owned by football until their respective seasons end. If the NHL is going to get more Sportscenter coverage, it will be on Wednesday and Thursday when there is no football.  The only thing to expect out of this is more hockey plays on Top 10.

Long story short, the NBA lockout will not directly affect the NHL’s ESPN coverage or TV ratings. The success of the Comcast/NBC venture and the NHL will hinge on the success of the NBC Sports brand, and the product on the ice. The product will drive prime time coverage on NBC and NBC Sports, which in turn may force ESPN’s hand into putting a little more coverage into the NHL. This, however, is a long process, and we will be unlikely to see any real results until a few years into this ten year TV deal.

Winter Classic To Be Formally Announced

In what is surely a nominee for the “Worst Kept Secret In The NHL” award, there is a press conference today at Citizens Bank Park with both the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers in attendance. Naturally, we all know they will be announcing the Winter Classic, but the added perk is that they are also announcing the jersies for the game.

HBO is supposed to have cameras in the house, but since it’s a press conference, don’t expect too much vulgarity from one John Tortorella.  Of course, I am still considering opening a betting line for the number of f-bombs Torts drops during the 24/7 series.  I figure the over/under should be set at 7.5 f-bombs per episode.  Thoughts?

Sean Avery Waiver Misconceptions (Updated)

It has come to my attention that there is a common misconception about Sean Avery’s waiver status floating around the inter-web. The first misconception is that Avery can’t be demoted due to the fact he was claimed off of re-entry waivers. This is incorrect. The second misconception is that Avery can be demoted, but if he is claimed, then his salary cap would be split three ways between the Stars, Rangers, and the claiming team. This too is incorrect. Turns out this is correct. Apparently section 50.9 of the CBA doesn’t mean what the world thought it did.

So what’s real and what’s internet fodder?

Avery was put on re-entry waivers by Dallas and was then claimed by the Rangers. The Stars and the Rangers split his salary/cap hit for the remainder of the contract. You hopefully know this.

Now if the Rangers put Avery on regular waivers and is claimed by a third team, then team 3 assumes the Rangers’ responsibilities. The Stars and team 3 now split Avery’s cap hit.

If Avery isn’t claimed and clears waivers, but the Rangers later recall him from the minors and another team claims him on the way back up, team 3 splits the cost with the Rangers. Dallas is now off the hook.

UPDATE: According to the NHL via Puck Daddy, this is how it would break down for Avery.

“If Avery were claimed on re-entry waivers, his salary would be paid by and count against three teams’ caps with this breakdown: Dallas 50 percent, Rangers 25 percent, New Team 25 percent.”

Never mind Crosby, the NHL Needs A New Poster Boy

In the first couple of years coming out of the lockout, having Sidney Crosby at the center of all NHL marketing made sense. He was the most talented player in the league, he was well spoken, and the sport needed a fresh face to bring in a new era of hockey in North America. However, as the seasons have gone by, Crosby’s popularity outside of The Steel City has slowly deteriorated.

Fans across the country have come to realize Crosby isn’t the NHL’s white knight. He’s one of the sports best no doubt, but everyone is now aware of his dirty play, the whining, and of course the unparalleled favoritism shown by league referees.

Hockey fans are ready for a new poster boy and the league should give it to them, otherwise they run the risk of being like golf when Tiger was injured, no one was watching…this is pre-sexcapades of course.

Now I’m not naïve enough to think Crosby’s lack of likability is going to force the league to reconsider its marketing strategy. However, with the relative uncertainty of his health and future, the timing couldn’t be better to look at other NHL elites.

Of course reading this post you knew there was a list coming, so here are several players the NHL should be putting their promotional dollars behind.

Steven Stamkos

Stamkos is arguably the game’s purest goal scorer. He may not have the flash of Alexander Ovechkin, or the eccentricity, but he’s of equal value to the Tampa Bay Lightning. To date, he has received very little push.

Now Tampa may not win any awards as the league’s greatest hockey market, but the house is packed every night, the ratings are solid, and the team has a chance to go deep into the post-season.

Jeff Skinner

Should Skinner follow up his rookie season with a sensational second, he should get a bump. He’s young, he’s uber-talented, he’s fresh faced, and the kid’s jersey probably outsells fried Oreos down south. If the league wants to continue to market the youth, it’s hard to not give Skinner a look.

He’s only 20 years old, but viewers and the media always love whiz kids whether it’s Rory McIlroy, Shaun White, etc. There’s obviously some risk involved putting all of that responsibility on such a young kid, but Skinner seems like he can handle the attention.

Dustin Byfuglien

It’s pretty simple. The league doesn’t do enough to market the game to minorities and it’s a big reason why hockey’s TV ratings are “grassroots,” which is the industry term for sh*tty. Hockey will never come close to being within the same viewership level as the NBA until they can diversify their audience. Byfuglien can help solve this issue.

Byfuglien may not be the best defensemen in the league, but he scores a lot of goals, he’s enormous, and he’s articulate. Playing in Winnipeg, which will now be the NHL’s smallest market, is going to hurt his exposure. The league needs to do what it can to counter the lack of love from NBC.

Henrik Lundqvist

I know, I know, a Rangers blogger is suggesting the NHL use a New York Ranger to be one of the faces of hockey, how ironic! Still, New York is the NHL’s biggest market and Lundqvist has been the Rangers greatest player, yet the man is never featured in any national advertising.

The Winter Classic and HBO’s 24/7 are the league’s best opportunities to build new stars. Why not use the star of those programs (don’t worry he will be) to be the centerpiece of all your marketing?

Lundqvist is the best, he’s well dressed, and he’s got a legion of supporters behind him. It’s time to show the rest of North America why he is The King of NYC.

Waiver Status Of Each Rangers Player

To explain waivers a little bit at a high level: it was implemented to prevent teams from trapping players in their minor leagues.  When a player is waived, the 29 remaining teams have the ability to put in a claim for the player before he is sent to the AHL.  Waiver priority is based on record (worst record gets top priority), and if none of the 29 teams put in a claim, the player goes to the AHL.  This is how the Rangers acquired Erik Christensen.

Waiver eligibility is defined on a series of parameters, but centers around the year and age that a player signs their entry level contract (ELC), and the number of NHL games played up through that point.  If a player crosses a certain games played or years since ELC threshold (which ever comes first), then he is no longer exempt from waivers.  Games played can be met in the middle of the season.  Note that two-way contracts have absolutely nothing to do with waivers, as two-way contracts only dictate financial terms.

The breakdown is below:

• ELC signed at 18 years old: first of 5 years since signing the deal or 160 NHL games played.
• ELC signed at 19 years old: first of 4 years since signing the deal or 160 NHL games played.
• ELC signed at 20 years old: first of 3 years since signing the deal or 160 NHL games played.
• ELC signed at 21 years old: first of 3 years since signing the deal or 80 NHL games played.
• ELC signed at 22 years old: first of 3 years since signing the deal or 70 NHL games played.
• ELC signed at 23+ years old: first of 3 years since signing the deal or 60 NHL games played.

I have written two posts about the waiver concerns of Michael Del Zotto and Mats Zuccarello, and have received numerous requests about (insert player here).  So, I decided to just compile a list of the players signed to contracts and broke them into three categories: Exempt From Waivers, Not Exempt From Waivers, and Special Cases (players that will cross their games played threshold during the season).  In the not exempt from waivers list, I bolded the ones likely for a call up when the season starts.  I also added this information as a new page, and you can access it by clicking the “Waivers” link at the top.  The full list is after the jump.

Read more »

MSG Renovation Needs To Scrap The “Sky Bridges”

Madison Square Garden is special. Some say it’s the prime location, some say it’s the history, others say it’s the people who fill the stands. Being the eternal centrist that I am, I think it’s all of the above. However, having been to arenas all over the country, I have to say that MSG is also special because of its unique architecture, which everyone knows is currently being redesigned.

There is no other arena from here to the Pacific that looks and feels the way MSG does. Most arenas I have been in look the same, even the new ones, they’re ubiquitous.  MSG is the only arena I can think of where you can look to the heavens after an amazing goal or a clutch save and see that gorgeous golden ceiling. Well, that’s about to change…

Dolan and company are renovating MSG, for good reasons no doubt, but the addition of a party bridge or sky bridge or whatever they’re calling it, makes no sense to me. It is not good for the fan experience and more importantly (to the suits); it doesn’t bring in any additional revenue.

Adding floor level suites makes sense. Companies have spent millions on sponsorships and in return received a box miles away from the ice. Now they’ll finally have a view reflective of the dollars they spend. Good for them.

Bringing back the Blue Seats makes sense. It’s part of the Garden’s history. The concourses will also be bigger (thank god), and there’s even a party deck – which will be up behind the Blue Seats - for those who wish to get out of their seats and socialize. No complaints here.

But this sky bridge thing is bugging me and I don’t get its purpose. Anyone care to explain?

A couple of years back fans launched lights from their thundersticks on to the ice endangering the players they supposedly adore. And now you want these people suspended over the arena? Um bad idea…

Ok, other than me, I’m sure there aren’t any other fans that care about that. Fair enough, but what about the view?

The whole purpose of a renovated arena is to make better sightlines. What kind of sightline do you have if there’s a bridge in your peripheral vision? If you look at the computerized mock-up, these bridges look pretty distracting. They’re right in your line of sight.

The MSG Renovation is a good thing, but if they want it to be a great thing, lose the bridges…

Winter Classic Is Officially Official, Sort Of

While the NHL still hasn’t formally announced the Winter Classic, news has been popping up left and right about the game.  It could quite possibly be the worst kept secret in the NHL, ever.  Over at Puck Daddy, they have confirmed that the Winter Classic will indeed happen between the Rangers and the Flyers on January 2, 2012.  Also confirmed is the New Year’s Eve Alumni Classic.

I have to laugh at this, because this is one of the more humorous events to be ongoing this summer.  The NHL hasn’t formally announced anything while they work out the kinks with Phillies ownership, so it’s understandable.  But it’s funny how all these different things pop up confirming the Winter Classic.  Also funny is that the auction mentioned in PD’s link has now been updated to “COMING SOON”.

The Alumni Game might be fun to watch, as I’m sure guys like Messier, Leetch, and Graves will suit up.  I doubt Richter will though because of all those concussions.  Maybe Lindros suits up for the Rangers?  That would be kind of funny.  If he suits up for the Flyers, think he gets booed?

As for the game itself, holding it on January 2 is perfect because it really does eliminate the competition with all those NCAA football bowl games.  I never understood why the NHL went toe-to-toe with college football, they can’t win.

But if you were holding off on planning your trip to the US/Philly for the official announcement, consider this to be as official as you’re going to get until the put an end to this mockery.  The auction was being done by Ed Snider, who owns Comcast/NBC/the Flyers/the city of Philadelphia.  So go for it, book those flights.  Or don’t.  Honestly, at this rate they might “officially” announce the game in October.

Thoughts & Musings – Inside the biz, Torts’ System, & More

It’s Thursdays folks and you know what that means…Thoughts & Musings time!  Chris usually does these, so my apologies to his loyal admirers.

As always (more like every now and then), I try to put my sports insider/biznass spin on this blog of ours, so bare with me for a few before we get back to talking about the latest Rangers buzz.

Coming To A Hockey Arena Near You 

For those of you who vacationed from the site this summer, I’ve been sporadically posting bits of information about what industry insiders are discussing in front offices and locker rooms around the country. We’ve talked about everything from dynamic ticket pricing to off season conditioning. Today I want to briefly discuss another topic that has caught my attention that I thought was interesting enough to share with all of you.

So what’s on the stove?

There is little bit of technology being tested at the NFL, NCAA, and the WWE and it may be making its way into hockey arenas. It’s called “Live Sports Radio.” Essentially it is an earpiece (think of a Bluetooth) that is distributed at sporting events and broadcasts the audio signal from your local sports TV telecast.

So if you’re at a Rangers game at MSG, you would be able to listen to Sam Rosen and Joe Micheletti’s analysis while you are sitting in the stands. The rumored cost for these things is suppose to be around $10-$20. Not a bad price if you’re looking to find out if the puck crossed the goal line before everybody else in your section or if you want to follow the action when you’re on line at a concession stand…

Back to the Rangers…

John Tortorella Is Not Ron Low, John Muckler, Bryan Trottier, or even Tom Renney

I keep reading these silly comments that Fedotenko, Wolski, etc. are somehow taking away roster spots from our young players. Look, those anti-veteran arguments worked in the 90′s and early 2000s when the aforementioned coaches opted to stick with their washed-up, overpaid veterans instead of up-and-coming players. Those days are long gone people. Torts is here.

If any young player, be it Christian Thomas, or Carl Hagelin, etc. outplays any veteran on this roster, that young player is going to get the job. That has been Torts philosophy his entire coaching career.

He pushed Redden, Drury, and Rozi down the depth chart and out the door because he believed in guys like Staal, Girardi, Dubinsky, Callahan, Stepan, etc. Don’t think for a minute he won’t do the same with this new crop of young players. When they are ready for it, they will get their chance.

Gaborik Can Play In Any System

Some people think that because we got Richards, Torts should just throw out his playbook, allow Gaborik to play however he wants, and not worry about sticking to the system. Their thinking is, that if he’s worrying about backchecking, then he won’t be scoring goals.

Gaborik scored 42 goals for a Minny team that played an ultra-conservative trap. He also scored over 40 goals playing in Torts’s 2-1-2 dump and chase. Gaborik can succeed in any system because he is an elite player.

Asking him to play a team game will not hurt his production, it will enhance it. In order to score a goal, you need to have the puck. Teams usually obtain the puck when they outnumber the opposition in the neutral or defensive zone. Gaborik needs to be apart of that equation.

Michael Del Zotto’s Future Has Yet To Be Written

I also don’t understand why people think Del Zotto should automatically go to Hartford or that he should automatically be placed on the roster. His spot, whether in Hartford, or on Broadway has to be earned.

Just because he had a bad year last season doesn’t mean he will have a bad camp or preseason. And just because the kid can hit or block shots, doesn’t mean he doesn’t need to work on his stickwork, gap control, or three zone coverage at the NHL level. His role can’t be decided in August, and his future is as incomplete as this sentence

Long Island Cheaps Out, Isles Future Uncertain

“Death smiles at us all. All we can do is smile back…”

- Proximo

Indeed, death is smiling at the Islanders right now, but smiling back may be easier said than done. If Charles Wang wants to do his best Proximo rendition to rally his gladiators, he will have to find a way to fund this project himself. However, given the massive financial hit he’s taken over the past few years, not to mention the contentious relationship he has with Nassau’s shortsighted Democrats, the Islanders future out east is dubious at best.

Now, those of you who have been reading my scriptures for the past year and half or so, know that I never get political when it comes to blogging. I learned a long time ago that people don’t change their stances during the heat of debate. However, working in the sports biz, I have a hard time analyzing this from any other perspective.

This arena should have been built a long time ago in the location he originally wanted, with public funding. The scale of his original Lighthouse Project was too ambitious sure, but a slightly smaller scale would have been great for Wang and great for Nassau.

Stripping this plan down to bare bones and building a new arena in the same location as the current Coliseum was a mediocre idea. Still, thousands of construction jobs could have been created and Nassau could have made money off of sales tax revenue long-term. In my opinion the $14 and $58 a year tax increase for single-family homeowners would have been well worth it to put people to work.

Obviously the area’s residents feel differently, so what happens now?

The Islanders lease doesn’t end until 2015, but the chances of Wang allowing himself to bleed money for the next 4 years is unlikely. As far as relocation goes, I’ve discussed geographic locations to death, but the likely candidate is Quebec City, which will have a spanking new arena opening just as the Islanders lease runs out…coincidence? I think not.

The other option is to find a location in Queens (near Citi Field was rumored at one point), but no one really knows if public funding is available there either. A long shot is the new Barclays Center in Brooklyn, but that location doesn’t make a whole lot of sense given that a sizeable chunk of the Islanders ticket purchasers live out in Suffolk.

If relocation is the only option, I’ve always been a big fan of moving a team to the Pacific Northwest (very strong hockey ratings), but there hasn’t been any interest in Portland from prospective owners, and Seattle’s government is just as stingy as Nassau, if not worse.

 Either way, the Islanders are likely done in Long Island.