2010 Draft Watch: Jaden Schwartz

The way the Rangers are situated now, and project out to end the season, they are looking at at 15-20 pick. This seems to be the consistent spot for the Rangers, they’ve picked here for a few years now. Last year, I was extremely focused on Scott Glennie, who was initially ranked #19 in the ISS Top 30, but wound up going #8 overall. This year, there is another player like Glennie, who from what I’ve read, encompasses something the Rangers sorely need: a speedy, goal scoring winger. That player in the 2010 draft is Jaden Schwartz.

Schwartz isn’t tall, but he is built, at 5′10 193 lbs. Currently playing for the Tri-City Storm of the USHL, Schwartz is playing at almost a point and a half per game pace, putting up a line of 25-47-72 in 47 games. His offensive talent has turned heads at the NHL scouting level, and his ability to create offense from nothing is one of his greatest strengths. His skating ability makes up for his size, as opponents find him to be elusive with the puck. He may be 5′10, but he plays like he is 6′1. His hockey intelligence is second to none at his level, which leads to a great defensive game and penalty kill time in the USHL. His teammates praise his skating, hands, intelligence, and most importantly, his character. They describe him as a class act who is fun to be around.

If there is one worry about Schwartz, it’s that he is small. He will not wind up as a third-fourth line guy. If he doesn’t crack the top-six on an NHL club, he will be a bust. The good thing for him is that a lot of current NHL stars are under 6′0, including Sidney Crosby. His size will see him drop in the draft, not to the third round like Ryan Bourque, but the Rangers may luck out and see him fall to the mid-late first round.

Schwartz is committed to Colorado College for 2010, but his stock is on the rise. In the February 2010 ISS Top 30, he is ranked #19. The January 2010 ISS Top 30: #26. Take a look at him walking through the opposition when he gets the puck at center ice for this goal:

I think he’s worth the “risk”.

Image Credit: The Scouting Report

Mock Draft #1: Puck Prospectus

It’s that time of year again, prospects lining up for the 2010 Entry Draft have been ranked, and scouts will continue to adjust these rankings right up through June. Corey Pronman of Puck Prospectus takes his first look at this year’s first round class, using the current NHL standings as draft position. With the 14th pick, Corey has the Rangers selecting US U-17 defenseman Jon Merrill.

Merrill, soon to be 18, is listed at 6′4 190 lbs. He is a very solid positional defenseman, and makes a solid first pass up the ice, sometimes joining in on the rush. He is very smart, and has committed to Michigan for his college career.

Pronman notes that the Rangers can take their time with Merrill, and let him develop on the World Junior stage and in college. Merrill would be a 4-5 year project for whichever team takes him.

The Rangers have the luxury of being stocked with defensive prospects, so they can take a project like Merrill and take their time with him. With the plethora of good offensive talent selected in 2008 and 2009, the Rangers don’t necessarily have a “need” to take a forward in this draft. Depending on where the Rangers sit, I would assume they take the best player available, and not hone in on a specific position. Merrill sounds like a legitimate prospect, and is already being called the real deal. I would be wary of his size/age though, as players his size do tend to excel in the younger levels because their size is their advantage. It will be very interesting to see how he adjusts in college, especially with Michigan.

Just thinking out loud, the Rangers taking Merrill sounds a lot like the Rangers taking Chris Kreider last year. The talent is there, and is a long term project. I haven’t done enough research on the prospects yet, I’m waiting for the TSN and HF rankings to come out before I go deep into the research. But from what I’ve read, I like the sound of Merrill.

Top Draft Picks of The Decade

Yeah, yeah, I know. The decade ended already. We’re in a new one. But, better late than never, right? I’ve seen a lot of these, and wanted to throw in my two cents. Here are the Rangers top 10 draft picks of the decade (Note: I considered time played with the Rangers. Marek Zidlicky was a great pick, but he never suited up. So he’s not on the list.)

10. Lauri Korpikoski

The “Korpedo” was the 19th overall pick in the 2004 draft. In his one full season on Broadway, Korpikoski established himself as a nice defensive forward with some offensive skills. He was later traded for Enver Lisin. He was 6-8-14 last year. I’m kind of disappointed the Rangers gave up on him so early. While Lisin clearly has some great offensive skills, the “Korpedo”could’ve been another Ryan Callahan type.

9. Bobby Sanguinetti

He hasn’t played much in the NHL, but he clearly has a lot of talent. He has offensive skills, and is improving defensively. He’s playing well in Hartford, but still needs time in the AHL. You’ll see a lot of him next year.

8. Fedor Tyutin

Fedor Tyutin was a stalwart on the blueline for the first couple years of the Rangers resurgence. Big, strong, composed, he had a bright future ahead of him. Still does. Only it will be in Columbus. Tyutin was part of the Nik Zherdev deal. Again, I’m disappointed that they gave up on him. We could’ve used him now.

7. Artem Anisimov

Still only a rookie, Anisimov  is showing flashes of offensive brilliance, with an improving defensive sense. So far, he is 7-8-15, and he seems to improve every game. We know he can score; he scored 37 goals in Hartford last year. I think he has star potential. He’s 6-4 and has room to put some weight on his frame.

6. Brandon Dubinsky

Dubinsky is starting to live up his potential, as he’s getting first line duty with Marian Gaborik. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Dubinsky is a talented forward. Score, hit. He can do it all. He has the potential to be a big time player.

5. Petr Prucha

One of the surprises coming out of the lockout, Prucha posted 30 goals in his rookie year. Of course, he fell into the doghouse after that, and saw his goal totals dip, before being shipped off to Phoenix. A fan favorite, Prucha really got the short end of the stick. Once Jagr left, he wasn’t getting the same chances. Making this pick even better was that it was in the 8th round of the 2002 draft. A steal, to say the least.

4. Michael Del Zotto

Taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, MDZ surprised some by making the team this year. He quickly took the lead on the power play, and has been one of the best rookies in the NHL. He has Leetch-like skill. Great vision, unbelievable passing, and a good shot. He’s a keeper, that’s for sure.

3. Ryan Callahan

Taken in the 4th round of the 2004 draft, Callahan’s rise has been breathtaking. He’s an energy winger, who works hard, but it pays off as he scored 22 goals last year. A great penalty killer, and he loves to hit. He is the alternate captain of the Rangers, and was named to the US Olympic team. He’s a future captain.

2. Marc Staal

Another first round pick, Marc Staal is quickly becoming a shut down defenseman. His offensive skills are still a work of progress, but he is always paired against opposing teams best players. He is one of the best young players in the league, and will anchor the Rangers blueline for a long time.

1. Henrik Lundqvist

Some may say this was the best pick of the decade for the entire NHL. He was taken in the 7th round of the 2000 draft. He wasn’t even the first goalie the Rangers took. They took Brandon Snee in the 5th  round. Who is Brandon Snee? Exactly. Lundqvist is one of the best goalies in the league. He led Sweden to a gold medal. He has been nominated for the Vezina trophy multiple times. He is the key to the Rangers success. What a draft pick.

There are others who didn’t make this list. I didn’t include promising youngsters such as Chris Krieder, Derek Stepan, Ryan Borque, or Evegeny Grachev. They haven’t played a game yet in the NHL. Alexei Cherepanov would be on this list somewhere, if not for his tragic death. But, in the last part of the decade ,the Rangers have done a great job of drafting. Some really promising players in the system. I can’t wait.

2009 Draft Review

Well, it’s about time I reviewed the draft. It’s been a busy weekend, and the sun being out all weekend has made it impossible to do a decent blog entry. Sorry, but the sun > blogging.

Anyway, let’s go through each of the picks:

1st Round (19th overall) – Chris Kreider, Center, Andover Academy
As touched on earlier, the kid is real fast, probably faster than a lot of NHLers at this point, and his speed is definitely his calling card. He isn’t small, at 6′2 200 lbs, so being able to package size and speed is rare. He can dangle with the best of them, even at top speed. He is tearing up Division I High School Prep, putting up 96 points in two seasons.

The knock on him is that he hasn’t seen any real competition at his current level, so the numbers may be incredibly skewed. The kid is a project, as he is committed to Boston College for the 2010-2011 season (he still has a year of high school left), and has a lot of raw talent that needs to be honed into hockey skills, specifically playing to his size, and his defensive zone abilities.

I’m not sure how I feel about this pick. The kid probably has the highest ceiling of the mid-first round picks, but as already stated, he is a big project, and won’t be in the NHL for at least four years. He will spend a year in HS, a year at BC, and maybe will come over to the AHL after his freshman year. To be honest, that’s not what the Rangers needed right now. They need someone who can be an impact within two seasons, not four.

I compare this pick to the Blake Wheeler pick by the Coyotes in 2004. Questionable at best, but could have high rewards, if he remains with the organization. Personally, I would have preferred they pick Jordan Schroeder, an initial top-10 pick who slipped all the way to #22.

2nd Round, 47th Overall, Ethan Werek, Center, Kingston (OHL)
Werek is a blue collar guy with an offense touch. A slow accelerator when skating, but once he gets going, he has decent speed. He put up 64 points (32 goals) in 62 games with Kingston of the OHL in his rookie season. He gets his goals by crashing the net and looking for rebounds, something that the current Ranger team is lacking. He is 6′0, 190 lbs, so he still has room to grow, but needs to learn how to utilize his size to better position himself on both sides of the puck. Like most young kids, his defensive game needs work, as does his discipline.

Werek is at least three seasons from the NHL.

3rd Round, 80th Overall, Ryan Bourque, C/LW, USA U-18 Team
Yes, this is Ray Bourque’s son. So he has the pedigree working for him. Ryan was one of the top players on the U-18 USA team, putting up 43 points in his first year. He has limited size (5′8, 165 lbs), but never quits and is definitely another blue-collar guy who plays hard in front of the net. He has a lot of skill, speed, and creativity, but it does not translate into making those around him better. A great work ethic and team-first attitude, which is definitely something he learned from his father.

Ryan is committed to the QMJHL next season.

5th Round, 127th Overall, Roman Horak, Center, Czech Extraliga
The 6′0 189 lb center from the Czech Republic, averaged roughly a point per game in his first two seasons (2007-2008, 2008-2009) in the Czech U-20 league, but was held pointless in 8 games at the elite level. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, he’s just 18.

There isn’t much available about the mystery Czech, other than what’s available from Hockeys Future:

Horak has a lot of offensive skill and breakaway speed, but the rest of his game needs work. He doesn’t put in much effort when he doesn’t have the puck.

Lots of skill, no work ethic. It’s a 5th round pick, I guess if he had a work ethic, he would have been drafted higher. This is a very hit-or-miss draft pick.

5th Round, 140th Overall, Scott Stajcer, Goalie, Owen Sound Attack (OHL)
Stajcer went 15-15, with a 3.05 GAA and a .906 SV% in his rookie season with the Owen Sound Attack. The 6′3 goalie’s numbers shouldn’t scare you away, as his team was awful on the defensive side of the puck. He improved greatly as the season progressed, and thus salvaged a .500 record for himself. He participated in the CHL Top Prospects game this year, and while he has the desired size of an NHL goalie, he needs to work on his positioning to be an effective NHL goalie.

6th Round, 170th Overall, Daniel Maggio, Defense, Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
The Rangers brass loves themselves some OHL defensemen, but Maggio is different from the most recent OHL defensemen picks of the Rangers. Maggio is a stay-at-home defenseman, putting up 36 points in 108 games with Sudbury in two seasons. He is a fighter, putting up 156 PIMS in those 108 games. There’s not much else on him.

7th Round, 200th overall, Mihail Pashnin, Defense, Russia
The name Mihail Pashnin should sound familiar, as he was the #1 overall pick in the 2009 KHL draft. He is just 5′9, and put up 16 points in 32 games with his Russian (not KHL) team last season. He put up two assists and a +6 in 7 games at the U20 Worlds this year.

This was probably the best value pick the Rangers made. If he comes over to North America after finishing up his two years in the KHL, he should make the roster and be an effective player.

Overall Thoughts: The Rangers definitely addressed their need for forward prospects and a decent goalie prospect in the draft, but the Kreider pick is definitely a gigantic question mark for a lot of people. He will not help the Rangers in the immediate future, and probably not until 2013. The Stajcer and Pashnin picks were great value picks, as Stajcer’s team hurt his stats, thus hurting his draft position, and Pashnin’s KHL contract hurt his NHL draft position.

Back to Kreider, the kid has a lot of talent, and definitely merited a first round selection, but the issue here is that the Rangers need immediate help. Kreider will definitely be an effective NHL player, but when remains to be the question.

If I had to grade the draft, I’d give it a C+. Not terrible, addressed some needs, but left the glaring hole of an immediate help to the lack of scoring.

Quick Tidbits

Some little news and notes that I was unable to post yesterday, due to a power outage during that epic storm, and me scrambling to get my friend to DVR the draft:

• Salary cap went up to $56.8 million, after the players acted on their right to increase the cap by 5%
• The Flyers gave up too much for Pronger, but assuming they get under the cap, the move makes them a favorite in the Atlantic.
• JayBo to Calgary for Jordan Leopold and a 3rd round pick. That’s a lot for a few days of negotiating. If they sign him, Calgary will be even more of a force next year.
• I’m shocked Schroeder slipped all the way to 22. I thought for sure he was a top-15 pick
• I screamed bloody murder when Glennie was picked 8th. I was so pissed, but there’s not much you can do when he’s drafted that high. Dallas may have overdrafted, I thought they should have gone with Ellis. But I’m bitter.
• Taveras was the right pick to keep the Islanders on Long Island, but I think Hedman was the better pick from two standpoints. First, it’s rare that a defenseman of that caliber comes along. And second, the Islanders could have played it out differently, such as letting slip that they were going to take Hedman, and letting Tampa trade up, maybe getting another draft pick out of the deal.
• I don’t know much on Chris Krieder, I will have to do some research before I comment, but this is from TSN:
  

  Analysis: “He has dynamite speed. A lot of scouts say he might be the best prospect out of New England since Brian Leetch and that’s pretty big praise.” – Pierre McGuire

That’s it for now.

Update 10:45am: I’m going to be apartment hunting all day, so go to Blueshirt Banter for a live chat on the draft. Jim is still in Montreal, and managed to get an interview with Schoenfeld last night. You should go check it out.

Today’s the Day

Happy Draft Day!

There will be a flurry of rumors, picks, rumors, squabbling, rumors, bad TV timing, and more rumors. I will do my best to update BSB with any credible rumors, but I won’t be around mid-day (12-3), or anytime after 7pm, so I highly recommend you going over to Blueshirt Banter. Jim is in Montreal at the draft, and will be live blogging everything he hears.

In the mean time, enjoy this rumor:

The Boston Bruins are in pursuit of Tomas Kaberle and a top 10 pick in today’s draft.

Sources tell TSN the Bruins have offered restricted free agent forward Phil Kessel to Toronto in exchange for the Leaf defenceman and Toronto’s No. 7 pick in the draft.

That’s a steep price for Kessel. But can you really pass on a 22-year old winger with one of the best wrist shots in the league?

Absolutely Superb Draft Analysis

First, thanks to Mike Axisa from River Ave. Blues for forwarding this to me. One of the authors at Pension Plan Puppets did a fantastic draft review from 1994-2009. You can read the post here. The review itself is in spreadsheet form, and the link is on the page. This sheet has everything: draft history, percent of players selected at a position to play in the NHL, percent of players to make it to the NHL by draft year and position (and both), each slot in the draft and who was drafted there, this list goes on. It is just absurdly good.

Some highlights from this post:

• Detroit really is NOT that good at drafting, but lucked out with Zetterberg and Datsyuk.
• Drafting is not only an inexact science, but it is damn near impossible to project.
• 10% of players drafted between 1996-2006 have played 200 NHL games. 10%!
• As hard as it is to draft a skater, it’s harder to draft a goalie.
• As for the Rangers, they suck at drafting. I mean it’s atrocious. In players drafted between 1996-2006, the Rangers rank 26th in players that have played over 200 games in the NHL, 27th in total games played per drafted player, and 30th (DEAD LAST) in average points per player drafted.

Those are just a few of the highlights from the post and spreadsheet. You should really go and look at it.

Mock Draft: The Hockey News

In our continuation of analyzing mock drafts around the hockey world, The Hockey News is the next in line. In their draft, they have the Rangers selecting LW Jeremy Morin:

19. New York Rangers – Jeremy Morin, LW, USA U-18, NTDP. Blueshirts aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut; Morin gives them a shooter.

Not exactly an offensive juggernaut? And in other news, Brittany Spears is insane.

It is actually incredibly tough to find anything substantial on Morin, but as per The Hockey Writers, he is 6′0 190 lbs at 18 years old, so he isn’t exactly a small guy, but not big either. The potential is there, and he had an excellent combine, but the worries are his work ethic and skating abilities. His shot is supposed to be incredible, and has the potential to be a top sniper in the league.

As for the rest, this is the pretty standard draft all the way through, but some interesting points were Carter Ashton, whom Blueshirt Banter selected in the SBNation Mock Draft, dropped all the way to #27. I don’t think that will happen, I doubt the Rangers pass on him if he’s available at #19. As for Simon Despres, he drops to the Islanders at #26 (what a haul that would be in the first round; Taveras and Despres).

Mock Draft: MyNHLDraft

In the next installment of our mock drafts, we follow the guys over at My NHL Draft. Their draft is actually more reflective of how I would do the draft, with the Islanders taking Victor Hedman #1 overall. You can’t pass on an 18-year old 6′4 220 lb defenseman who can score, hit, and play well in all three zones. They are incredibly rare. He would be the rock on defense that DiPietro so desperately needs. But then again, from a management standpoint, you can’t pass on Tavares and the revenue he would bring to Long Island.

This mock draft has the Rangers taking Jacob Josefson at #19 overall. Josefson was profiled over at Blueshirt Banter, so you should check it out for more information on him. Some key points from their review:

Elite Prospects:

Josefsson is a highly skilled center. He plays a strong two-way game is very all-round. Hockey sense is excellent and skating ability and technical skills are very good. Nice creativity with the puck and a skilled playmaker and decent goal scorer. Makes smart decisions and plays a mature game. Gets involved in the rough stuff and has pretty good timing in his hits.

Hockey Prospect:

Has a good shot, but does tend to pass too much, which is a product of playing on a team with so many older players, where he defers to their experience. If he shot a little more, he would score a lot more than he does. Is being brought along slowly by his club team, who has produced the likes of Mats Sundin in the past.

Hockey’s Future:

2007-08: Centered for a number of teams in the Swedish leagues, but spent most of the season with Djurgardens. Scored 31 points (14g+17a) in 34 games. Also represented his country at the U17 and U18 WJC, putting up decent numbers.

I would have no problem with this pick, assuming some of the glut of center prospects can be converted to winger. Josefson is a center with sound offensive talent, and would fit in well with Torts’ system.

Other notable items from this mock draft:

• Jordan Schroeder going at #11 to Nashville. Schroeder is an interesting prospect, as some have him ranked as high as #7, but as low as #20.
• Scott Glennie going at #17 to St. Louis. He is another interesting case as some project him to go top-10, but others mid-20s. The averages have him going around mid-teens. I’m telling you this, if he’s available at #12, following Nashville’s pick, and the Sather doesn’t at least make an attempt to trade up, I will be very, very, very upset. This kid is going to be gold.
• Landon Ferraro dropping out of the first round all together. I can definitely see this happening, as his numbers are hurting because his team is comparable to the Islanders.

So in the different mock drafts profiled here so far, we have seen the Rangers take a different player in each draft. Just goes to show you that the draft is a very inexact, and incredibly subjective, science.

Mock Draft: NHL Draftsite

In the next installment of our Mock Draft series, I take a look at NHLDraftsite, and its mock draft. This is the most interesting mock draft I’ve seen, because it includes some players that I have never heard of. In particular, the player coming to the Rangers at #19, Richard Panik, of Slovakia (or Czech Republic, depending on which website you read), currently playing for Trinec. There’s not much available on Panik from credible sources, but as per HockeysFuture:

2007-08: He spent the majority of the season with HC Trinec’s U20 squad, netting 35 goals and 62 points in 39 games. He also suited up for Solvakia’s U18 team at the WJC, where he recorded four goals and ten points in six games.

2008-09: This Slovak played for Trinec in the Czech leagues. He spent 16 games with the U20 squad, registering 19 points, before heading up to the senior team for another 15 games. He represented his country at the U20 WJC, netting two goals and five points in seven games.

The HF Boards has a thread about him. I read through it, and there appears to be only good things said about the kid. He’s 6′1, 200 lbs, incredibly strong on his skates with some great offensive instincts. Some have compared him to Marian Hossa, but I think that’s a little far fetched.

Other interesting bits from this mock draft:

• Scott Glennie fell to the Devils at #23 in this mock draft.
• Drew Shore went right after him to Washington at #24.
• Landon Ferraro got drafted ahead of both of these guys at #17 to St. Louis.
• Carter Ashton fell all the way to #25 and the Bruins.

I don’t exactly agree with some of the picks here. There’s no way Ferraro goes before all of Glennie, Shore and Ashton. But hey, everyone has their own opinions. That’s why I love these mock drafts.

This is the only mock draft I’ve come across that goes through more than just the first round. It’s worth taking a look at.