What Chris Kreider really means

Chris Kreider doesn’t have to be a difference maker at this stage of his career even if that would be a nice bonus. What he needs to do is be able to add depth to the forwards and help Tortorella roll line after line and add his speed to the mix. Brian Boyle is exhibit A of how in the playoffs it’s often the depth that wins games and scores the big goals.

There will be plenty of games when the likes of Marian Gaborik get shutdown. It’s then that the likes of Brian Boyle need to be the difference. That’s why this Rangers team has the chance to go deep; because they have that depth. It’s one of the main reasons the Bruins won the cup last year; behind spectacular goaltending and depth. And we know this Rangers team has goaltending.

In game three, Kreider looked timid at first but grew as the game wore on. His line may have lacked cohesion but right now all Kreider has to do is hold Hagelin’s spot, learn on the fly and not be a liability. Kreider should stay in the line up when Hagelin returns because with both kids in the team and with Gaborik in full flight, there are not many teams that can match this kind of explosive speed up and down a line up.

Kreider should improve as the playoffs continue. Simply through more practice, a longer adjustment period and with fewer nerves (after all, it was his pro debut) Kreider should be able to become a bigger factor. In his 11:11 worth of ice time Kreider got better each shift. That’s no mean feat against a team that threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers towards the end.

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Dubinsky’s time to shine

Brandon Dubinsky had a rough 2011-2012 season. We know this. Many of us, including myself, were wondering when the hammer would fall and Dubi would be traded. It wasn’t so much the lack of production, it was that he seemed to be coasting and disinterested in playing. In fact, Suit and I were big supporters of his early in the season when he was still doing the little things. It wasn’t until later in the season that he appeared to lack the fire he once had.

But then the events of Saturday night happened, and the Gatorade bottles haven’t been the same since.

Dubinsky showed emotion that we haven’t seen in a while, and maybe that unwarranted game misconduct was a blessing in disguise. Dubinsky got tossed for being the third man in on a fight that had no second man, and was livid. One can only expect him to have that same fire and desire heading into Game Three tonight.

Dubi shouldn’t be targeting anyone on the Senators for retribution, that’s not his or the Rangers style of play. With Hagelin out, a top six spot opens up in the lineup. What harm is there to insert Dubinsky and see what he can do with a fire under his behind? The Gatorade bottle still has a bruise, although it was at practice this morning, so there was no suspension.

If Dubinsky even shows half of the fire he had last night, he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with. Rookie Chris Kreider may be the story heading into this game (if he plays), but Dubi has the potential to steal the show tonight. It’s long overdue.

Lineup decisions: Kreider or Eminger?

Update 12:40pm: Per Andrew Gross, John Scott has a nameplate above a locker tonight. Steve Eminger, Jeff Woywitka, and more importantly Chris Kreider do not have name plates up. This likely means Scott will be inserted into the lineup tonight.

Original Post: With the news that Carl Hagelin is gone for the next three games, the Rangers have a few decisions they need to make regarding the lineup. The loss of Hagelin is a big loss, as the Rangers lose their fastest skater and a top six forward. That is not easily replaced in the lineup. Rookie Chris Kreider is the best option to fill in for Hagelin, as discussed earlier today, but the coaching staff may be hesitant to insert the rookie into the lineup so quickly.

The reasoning here is that Kreider may not be the best option for a series that has taken a dirty, physical, and nasty turn. Zenon Konopka, Chris Neil, and Matt Carkner have taken liberties with the Rangers, and there might be some retribution.

Since John Scott is likely not the answer the Rangers are looking for, that leaves another option that I mentioned on Twitter. When the club had a few injuries at forward, they left Stu Bickel in the lineup at forward on the fourth line, and inserted Steve Eminger into the lineup on defense. This is still an option for the Rangers, who may want to have some added toughness up front without losing much on defense.

Flexibility is nice, and it’s tough to really say there’s a right and wrong answer here for the Rangers. It really depends on what the coaching staff feels is a bigger need for Game Three. Do they need to replace the skill, or do they need the toughness? Personally, I would insert Kreider, but I don’t coach the team.

Hagelin’s suspension leads to Kreider’s opportunity

In case you missed it last night, Brendan Shanahan inexplicably suspended winger Carl Hagelin for three games for his hit on Daniel Alfredsson. While the hit may have warranted a suspension, the inconsistencies of the suspension rulings are what have most people perplexed. That is not the main point of this story though.

Hagelin’s loss is a big one. He has so much speed that he forces the opposition to play differently. He was one of the reasons why the Rangers had such a dominant season with his puck possession skills, and was clicking on the top line with Marian Gaborik and Brad Richards. He will be sorely missed in the Rangers lineup.

But with loss comes opportunity. The Rangers lose Hagelin, but now rookie Chris Kreider has an opportunity to show why he is so highly touted. Kreider has the speed to match Hagelin’s loss, but the real question is about his ability to click with the top line, and to match Hagelin’s dominant puck possession metrics.

Many are not too enamored with Kreider’s stats in college, and these are the people doubting his ability to perform in the NHL. But those are the same people that don’t understand that stats in college are only one aspect of a player’s potential. BC ran four lines evenly en route to a National Championship. The top scorers in the NCCA played on teams that ran two or three lines regularly. Thus, these scoring leaders get significantly more ice time than Kreider.

Kreider has all the tools to become a dominant NHL player. It’s why the Rangers didn’t want to trade Kreider in any deal for Rick Nash. Having the tools is one thing, performing is another. The rookie winger has an opportunity to do something that hasn’t been done in 21 years in this organization. He has the opportunity to debut –and make an impact– as a rookie in the playoffs. Tony Amonte was the last Ranger to do so in 1991, now Kreider will likely have his shot.

Boyle on the rise – playoff key?

In his first two seasons in New York Brian Boyle seemed to run out of steam towards the end of the season, at least offensively. This year he’s getting better as the Rangers approach the regular season finish line; as 3 goals in 4 games and an increased physical presence would suggest.

Boyle is looking more physically engaged, is a reliable faceoff performer and all of a sudden is beginning to flash his offensive side again. He’ll never be a good finisher – in fact he is anything but – however Boyle can create offense simply by using his natural attributes by using that massive frame of his and getting to the net as much as possible. His goal against the Jets Wednesday night was all about Boyle being up close and winning battles.

The most exciting thing about Boyle returning to some kind of offensive consistency is the mismatches he can then create. For the most part this season, teams haven’t given his line much (if any) respect in regard to what they can do in the opposing end and teams would therefore stack their talent up against the Rangers best. This would naturally increase the difficulty for Gaborik and company.

With Boyle suddenly getting hot his line could be a key side-note of a successful playoff run, and not for their defense. Tortorella recently bemoaned the frailties the Boyle line were showing defensively. However if they are better offensively, almost by default they are more secure defensively. The big Boston man won a key faceoff before his goal, evidencing that he is a key performer in the circle and should his offense draw more attention he won’t just be getting draws in the defensive zone as has been the recent trend.

Teams often have success in the playoffs because of their depth and the ability of the unsung types to step forward when goals become increasingly scarce. If Boyle can sustain some kind of offensive consistency he could just become that unsung hero the Rangers look for in the playoffs.

Will Kreider vault straight on to the top line?

Rick Nash. Sorry, couldn’t resist. Some people didn’t want Nash at the deadline and those fans got their wish. Until he lands somewhere else however, he will be intensely linked with the Rangers and should they indeed land the uber-talented power forward he’ll be the Rangers de-facto left winger for half a decade.

Enter Chris Kreider. He may have something to say about Nash. In fact, the more big games Kreider has (like the two goal game against Air Force) the less likely it is Glen Sather revisits a possible Nash acquisition. Certainly, the buzz around Kreider in regard to his immediate NHL ability is growing by the game.

Kreider is a man-child that will physically cope with the NHL from day one. However, the Rangers opportunity to win is opening earlier than many anticipated thanks to this season and it’s a legitimate debate to ask what Kreider can bring from day one (and I don’t mean as a guest star in this season’s playoff production).

Look around at some comparables. James Van Riemsdyk and Chris Kreider are both physically similar in stature, both have been strong college performers and both have been hugely anticipated entering the pro ranks. Yet it took van Riemsdyk quite a while to adjust to being a regular contributor at the NHL level and you can argue he joined a more talented team when he joined the Flyers. You could also argue ‘JVR’ still hasn’t quite lived up to his billing consistently.

So what can be expected from Krieder next season? Does the mere presence of world class speed make the difference between his ability to thrive immediately compared to Van Riemsdyk’s entry to the NHL? Will that speed singlehandedly land him a top line assignment and render the Nash debate unnecessary?

Another comparison may be Phil Kessel (bear with me here). Kessel is another player that was strong in the college game and possessed crazy speed as he entered the NHL. Although one dimensional compared to the player Kreider projects to be, many anticipated Kessel’s speed would be the X-factor. It wasn’t and he struggled through an 11 goal, 29 point rookie season.

Kreider appears more mature at this stage of his development. He’s done things his way, at his pace and appears ready for the Rangers. He’s physically better than Kessel and faster than Van Riemsdyk. He’s played at every stage showing improvement and don’t underestimate how his senior internal experience (13 games at World Championships, five points) will help him cope with the pro ranks.

The thing that needs to be remembered however is while Kreider appears ready the Van Riemsdyk and Kessel examples prove that it may not be an overnight success for Kreider. The expectation is huge, the lust after the Cup is growing and Kreider will likely hit some speed bumps along the way.

Is Kreider ready to take over a top six spot on the Rangers? Despite many people expecting it, in all honesty it’s still far too early to tell. So don’t expect the Nash rumours to stop any time soon and let’s not scream mercy the first time Kreider has a two game scoring slump.

Zuccarello’s injury doesn’t mean the end

Despite an unclear timetable for his return we know Mats Zuccarello’s wrist break has ruled him out of the regular season and probably most of the first round of the playoffs. Depending on the severity he could miss more. That doesn’t mean we’ve seen the last of him in Ranger blue however.

The little Norwegian could be the beneficiary of ineptitude. Of the Rangers powerplay that is. If there is one specific concern this season it is that the Rangers powerplay cannot (consistently) take advantage of the hard work the team is putting in.

The Rangers have thrown away a few points this season because they couldn’t cash in with the extra man. In his limited return to the club, Zuccarello may not have been the all-in-one remedy but he certainly helped the unit look more dangerous and move the puck more efficiently.

Tortorella isn’t renowned for carrying a powerplay specialist on his rosters but then again, how often has he been responsible for the 29^th ranked powerplay? Not often. Maybe it’s time Tortorella looked for a different solution. Zuccarello had finally begun to prove he can be more than a special teams guy with an improved level of play along the boards, impressing on the forecheck all the while still bringing his play making skills to the party.

It doesn’t matter that Chris Kreider is the projected knight in shining armour next season. Even anticipating a tremendous rookie year it would be unfair to expect a kid with no pro experience to turn around the PP unit. That’s another reason why bringing Zuccarello back makes sense, even at his qualifying offer of 945k. It lessens the burden on the likes of Kreider, it adds depth to the roster and skill to the line up and there will be money to spend given the likes of Fedotenko are possibly headed for the door.

It seems like we’ve repeated the Zuccarello situation here a few times and we have. However it’s different this time. Zuccarello is on the outside looking in thanks to injury but even with a small sample size has shown he can be a contributor. He’s improved his game and a combination of his play and the Rangers lack of a solution on the PP should lead to a reunion.

If it’s truly about improving the overall quality of the club and giving it the best chance to succeed Zuccarello should be offered a chance to return. Imagine how many points this Rangers club would have this year if the powerplay was ‘only’ a middle of the pack club? We wouldn’t be sweating on first overall that’s for sure.

Season Turning Point: Calling up Hagelin and Mitchell

With a playoff spot clinched, we are running a new series about turning points in the season. These posts will focus on moves the Rangers made that effectively turned their season from mediocre to great.

On November 24, the Rangers had lost two games in a row to the Montreal Canadiens and Florida Panthers. It wasn’t so much that the Rangers lost the games, it was that they were getting beat to every single loose puck in those games. They looked slow, and even looked slow in their six wins prior to those losses. The two players made an immediate impact, and the Rangers won their next five in a row, including three in a row against Washington, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.

But those wins weren’t just ordinary wins. The Rangers looked faster, and for good reason. Hagelin and Mitchell eventually replaced the revolving door of Erik Christensen, Wojtek Wolski, and Sean Avery (with a little Andre Deveaux as well). Only Avery had some sort of speed out of that trio. Their success paved the way for the removal of all three spare parts (and distractions) from the Rangers locker room, permanently. It was not only addition by speed, but addition by subtraction.

It wasn’t just speed though. Something was different. Both players immediately bought into the John Tortorella system of forechecking, two way hockey, and grinding out games. The Rangers had the puck more often, and it showed. Their time of possession in the offensive zone shot up noticeably, and the Rangers were generating more offense off the physical offensive zone play. They had the puck more, it’s as simple as that, and it was mainly due to Mitchell and Hagelin.

Puck possession is an easy enough metric to figure out, as it’s defined by the stat Corsi. Corsi is a stat that counts the number of shots directed at your net (missed, blocked, saved, or goals) versus the number of shots directed at your opponents net (missed, blocked, saved, or goals) while a specific player is on the ice. All shot attempts for – all shot attempts against = Corsi. Essentially, the more shots directed at your opponents net, the more you have the puck, and vice versa.

Relative Corsi (I’m going to abbreviate this as RCorsi) takes Corsi to a different level. Generally speaking, the better teams in the league will dominate Corsi. RCorsi accounts for this, and takes the Corsi of the player (as described above) and subtract the Corsi of the team when that player is off the ice. This makes for a more balanced measure of puck possession, as it eliminates the team concept and focuses solely on the player, and how he affects the team.

Now that we’ve explained RCorsi, it’s easy to see why Hagelin and Mitchell were instrumental to the Rangers long term success. They boast the two highest RCorsi among forwards on the team. Mitchell’s RCorsi is 13.1, and Hagelin’s is 12.6. To really put a value to this, the next best Ranger is Brandon Dubinsky at 8.5 RCorsi. Brad Richards sit’s in 4th at 2.7 RCorsi.

What’s even more impressive about their RCorsi is that Hagelin starts less than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone (46.5%) and Mitchell is barely above 50% offensive zone starts (51.1%).

The best part is that these guys are showing they made a difference on the ice and on the scoreboard. Despite playing 20 fewer games than the rest of the team, Hagelin still sits in the top five in scoring on the team (14-23-37). Average that out over a full 72 games thus far for the Rangers, and that’s 18-30-48. That’s Calder discussion worthy. As for Mitchell, he has 15 points (5-10-15) while playing mostly checking line duties.

The Rangers didn’t just call up two AHL guys, they called up two difference makers. These two almost single-handedly righted the ship for the Rangers in what could have been a disastrous stretch. Just think Mitchell was acquired from Toronto for a 7th round pick, and Hagelin was a 6th round pick in 2008. Not bad Mr. Sather.

Finding a way to keep Zuccarello

The Rangers need to find a way to keep Mats Zuccarello with the organisation and in the line-up beyond this season. He provides the club with something different and can make a difference when he’s given the opportunity; as the win against the Devils showed.

Even with guys like Kreider en route there needs to be a place for the little Norwegian. Throwing Zuccarello on the ice after guys like Kreider is like a batter facing a knuckleball after countless fast balls. You have to plan differently for the nippy, much smaller Zuccarello. With his vision and passing ability there’s a different concern for a defense than with a straight-ahead-speed-merchant (with size) like Kreider. There should to be room for both.

There appears to be hope for Zuccarello, should he want to stay with the franchise and not explore other opportunities in the league (or Europe). Despite a great year collectively a few Rangers forwards have underwhelmed.

Brandon Dubinsky (better recently) has had a brutal year and clearly has a tenuous future given his presence in the Nash discussions. Artem Anisimov, a few games here and there aside, appears to have stagnated this year and isn’t as secure of his spot as he may once have been. Fedotenko looks to be getting older every game he plays.

There is surely space to accommodate Kreider and Zuccarello and that is to assume Kreider doesn’t spend time in the minors – still a possibility. A good question was raised on Twitter after the Devils game. Would ‘Zuke’ even want to stay after this year? It’s a valid question given his frustrating and inconsistent time with the organisation.

That said, if the Rangers offered him an increased opportunity of 13(is) minutes a game with a big part on the powerplay you have to think he’d consider staying. The Rangers are a club going places and looking to contend and that surely plays a role in any ambitious players’ decision.

What complicates all of this for Zuccarello is the contractual situation. Whether he’s been used correctly or not (a significant debate in itself), he simply hasn’t justified the Rangers qualifying him at (Update by Dave: Sorry to do this Chris, but the QO for Zucc is $945k, not $1.75m. The QO is based on salary, and that $1.75m includes bonuses.) $1.75m so there are complicating factors going forward. Though how much of an issue that would be if all parties wanted a reunion is another matter.

The Rangers need to find a way to keep the Norwegian. Not because he’s popular in the locker room. Not because he has a rock star following back home or because he is a media curiosity but because he could be a difference maker and successful teams can never have enough of those.

Dubinsky’s biggest problem

No, it isn’t Carl Hagelin, although that’s a pretty big issue for Dubinsky right now. Dubinsky is clearly the forgotten man in the Rangers offense right now and his biggest problem this season is consistency.

Anyone who watched the Islanders game will have seen Dubinsky was strong on the puck and his line generated plenty of chances all round. Dubinsky then followed it up with a game against Carolina where he was a complete non-factor and ended up with the third least ice time among forwards bettering only fourth line stalwarts Mike Rupp and John Mitchell (who still managed to make some good plays in his ice time).

These two games – against cellar dwellers no less – sum up Dubinsky’s year. Yes you can point to the emergence of Carl Hagelin, who has provided effort, production, speed and a cheap solution to the left wing spot.  And yes, you can say Dubinsky hasn’t finished enough of the chances that have come his way – you’ll not find disagreement on any of this.

However, trust is earned with Tortorella and the coach simply cannot rely on the well paid Dubinsky to back up one good game with another. Dubinsky has twelve regular season games and the playoffs to save his Rangers career. He certainly won’t be a hurdle for Chris Kreider to jump given the organisation’s lust for the BC winger to be in NY as soon as possible. He’s well behind the eight ball if it’s a Hagelin vs. Dubinsky debate. And don’t even get started on a Nash/insert free agent name vs. Dubinsky debate.

Dubi doesn’t need to score at a crazy rate to finish the season to have a chance to remain a Ranger, but he does need to show something that has often eluded him his entire Ranger career – consistency. Note: there’s a big difference between consistency and streaky. If Dubinsky can show he can be counted on to be a factor for the remainder of the season, then both he and the franchise will benefit from it. It may be Dubinsky’s last chance to remain a Ranger.