The Rangers made it through the regular season by dominating teams at even strength. Their powerplay was nothing to write home about, and it was actually considered the biggest weakness in their game. But now, four games into the series with Ottawa, the Senators have managed to expose the Rangers at even strength. The last even strength goal: Brian Boyle’s goal in the third period of Game Three. The one before that? Boyle’s goal in the third period of Game Two.
For those keeping track, that’s two even strength goals in seven periods of hockey. That is not what made the Rangers the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They have a lead in even strength goals (7-6 thus far), but considering the weaknesses of the powerplay*, there needs to be a wider gap.
*-Statistically the Rangers powerplay isn’t awful this series, but it cost them Game Two. Timing is everything with powerplay goals.
The biggest offenders at even strength are the two guys that were signed to provide scoring for the Rangers: Marian Gaborik and Brad Richards. Both have just one even strength point (a goal a piece). Simply put: they need to be better at even strength.
The Senators aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, but they have managed to hold the Rangers to two goals or less in three of the first four games. Only Game One saw a successful Rangers attack at even strength. As Suit pointed out, the Senators aggressive hybrid trap has the Rangers running around in their own zone, and seemingly unable to get anything going on offense.
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The other day, Kevin Baumer asked a question about which Rangers have elevated their game for the playoffs. The obvious answers were Brian Boyle and Henrik Lundqvist, but another answer has been Anton Stralman. Outside of Dan Girardi, who is playing as his usual self, Stralman has been the Rangers best defenseman this series. In this series against Ottawa, he is tied for the team lead in points (3) and second in goals (2). He has been a rock on defense, and has made out-of-this-world plays on defense to help preserve leads.
Perhaps the biggest indicator of how well he has been playing is his ice time. Last night Stralman totaled 19:13 in ice time across 21 shifts, including 6:21 on the powerplay. Stralman has taken over the point on the powerplay, removing an ineffective Derek Stepan. Stralman’s play has been so good that he has rendered Stu Bickel relatively useless. Bickel received just 3:33 in ice time last night.
It’s not like Stralman is playing from experience either. This is his first trip to the Stanley Cup playoffs, and has only played 13 playoffs games total in his entire hockey career. Perhaps he is being helped by the quality of competition he is facing in the playoffs. Stralman’s Qualcomp of -.183 isn’t that strong, but it is considerably higher than Stu Bickel’s or Michael Del Zotto’s quality of competition faced. Naturally, he is nowhere near Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, or Marc Staal, but that’s expected.
Where Stralman is really beginning to excel is his puck possession metrics. At even strength, Stralman’s relative Corsi throughout the first round is 14.8, which is incredibly high. We are victims of small sample sizes here, especially when it comes to Corsi, but it is a drastic improvement over his regular season Corsi (0.4).
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When the playoffs started this year, many blogs and writers in the media were questioning the Rangers and their ability to perform as a top seed. It wasn’t because of their skill or style of play, but it was because Henrik Lundqvist “wasn’t a playoff goalie.” Their claims weren’t that far fetched, as his stats in the playoffs did take a bit of a nosedive in the past few postseasons. Only that seven game series against Washington in 2009 stands out as a series where Lundqvist carried them.
This year is different. This year Lundqvist is different. But most imporantly, the supporting cast for Lundqvist is different.
Prior to this season, the Rangers had tremendous roster turnover from season to season, sometimes reaching as high as 10 players. The Rangers were rebuilding, but because of some shrewd moves and the goaltending of The King, the Rangers were a playoff team. The teams weren’t necessarily built to succeed in the playoffs, and it showed. They lacked skill, speed, toughness, grit, physicallity, and a scoring touch. Those are a lot of holes for a goaltender to fill, even if he is the best in the world.
This year is different. The roster didn’t turnover too much. The Rangers have an identity as a physical, hard working team that will play defense. Lundqvist no longer needs to stand on his head every single game for the Rangers to win. More importantly, the addition of Martin Biron has led to a more rested Lundqvist. A rested Lundqvist is a better Lundqvist, and it shows.
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Chris Kreider doesn’t have to be a difference maker at this stage of his career even if that would be a nice bonus. What he needs to do is be able to add depth to the forwards and help Tortorella roll line after line and add his speed to the mix. Brian Boyle is exhibit A of how in the playoffs it’s often the depth that wins games and scores the big goals.
There will be plenty of games when the likes of Marian Gaborik get shutdown. It’s then that the likes of Brian Boyle need to be the difference. That’s why this Rangers team has the chance to go deep; because they have that depth. It’s one of the main reasons the Bruins won the cup last year; behind spectacular goaltending and depth. And we know this Rangers team has goaltending.
In game three, Kreider looked timid at first but grew as the game wore on. His line may have lacked cohesion but right now all Kreider has to do is hold Hagelin’s spot, learn on the fly and not be a liability. Kreider should stay in the line up when Hagelin returns because with both kids in the team and with Gaborik in full flight, there are not many teams that can match this kind of explosive speed up and down a line up.
Kreider should improve as the playoffs continue. Simply through more practice, a longer adjustment period and with fewer nerves (after all, it was his pro debut) Kreider should be able to become a bigger factor. In his 11:11 worth of ice time Kreider got better each shift. That’s no mean feat against a team that threw the kitchen sink at the Rangers towards the end.
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Brandon Dubinsky had a rough 2011-2012 season. We know this. Many of us, including myself, were wondering when the hammer would fall and Dubi would be traded. It wasn’t so much the lack of production, it was that he seemed to be coasting and disinterested in playing. In fact, Suit and I were big supporters of his early in the season when he was still doing the little things. It wasn’t until later in the season that he appeared to lack the fire he once had.
But then the events of Saturday night happened, and the Gatorade bottles haven’t been the same since.
Dubinsky showed emotion that we haven’t seen in a while, and maybe that unwarranted game misconduct was a blessing in disguise. Dubinsky got tossed for being the third man in on a fight that had no second man, and was livid. One can only expect him to have that same fire and desire heading into Game Three tonight.
Dubi shouldn’t be targeting anyone on the Senators for retribution, that’s not his or the Rangers style of play. With Hagelin out, a top six spot opens up in the lineup. What harm is there to insert Dubinsky and see what he can do with a fire under his behind? The Gatorade bottle still has a bruise, although it was at practice this morning, so there was no suspension.
If Dubinsky even shows half of the fire he had last night, he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with. Rookie Chris Kreider may be the story heading into this game (if he plays), but Dubi has the potential to steal the show tonight. It’s long overdue.
Update 12:40pm: Per Andrew Gross, John Scott has a nameplate above a locker tonight. Steve Eminger, Jeff Woywitka, and more importantly Chris Kreider do not have name plates up. This likely means Scott will be inserted into the lineup tonight.
Original Post: With the news that Carl Hagelin is gone for the next three games, the Rangers have a few decisions they need to make regarding the lineup. The loss of Hagelin is a big loss, as the Rangers lose their fastest skater and a top six forward. That is not easily replaced in the lineup. Rookie Chris Kreider is the best option to fill in for Hagelin, as discussed earlier today, but the coaching staff may be hesitant to insert the rookie into the lineup so quickly.
The reasoning here is that Kreider may not be the best option for a series that has taken a dirty, physical, and nasty turn. Zenon Konopka, Chris Neil, and Matt Carkner have taken liberties with the Rangers, and there might be some retribution.
Since John Scott is likely not the answer the Rangers are looking for, that leaves another option that I mentioned on Twitter. When the club had a few injuries at forward, they left Stu Bickel in the lineup at forward on the fourth line, and inserted Steve Eminger into the lineup on defense. This is still an option for the Rangers, who may want to have some added toughness up front without losing much on defense.
Flexibility is nice, and it’s tough to really say there’s a right and wrong answer here for the Rangers. It really depends on what the coaching staff feels is a bigger need for Game Three. Do they need to replace the skill, or do they need the toughness? Personally, I would insert Kreider, but I don’t coach the team.
In case you missed it last night, Brendan Shanahan inexplicably suspended winger Carl Hagelin for three games for his hit on Daniel Alfredsson. While the hit may have warranted a suspension, the inconsistencies of the suspension rulings are what have most people perplexed. That is not the main point of this story though.
Hagelin’s loss is a big one. He has so much speed that he forces the opposition to play differently. He was one of the reasons why the Rangers had such a dominant season with his puck possession skills, and was clicking on the top line with Marian Gaborik and Brad Richards. He will be sorely missed in the Rangers lineup.
But with loss comes opportunity. The Rangers lose Hagelin, but now rookie Chris Kreider has an opportunity to show why he is so highly touted. Kreider has the speed to match Hagelin’s loss, but the real question is about his ability to click with the top line, and to match Hagelin’s dominant puck possession metrics.
Many are not too enamored with Kreider’s stats in college, and these are the people doubting his ability to perform in the NHL. But those are the same people that don’t understand that stats in college are only one aspect of a player’s potential. BC ran four lines evenly en route to a National Championship. The top scorers in the NCCA played on teams that ran two or three lines regularly. Thus, these scoring leaders get significantly more ice time than Kreider.
Kreider has all the tools to become a dominant NHL player. It’s why the Rangers didn’t want to trade Kreider in any deal for Rick Nash. Having the tools is one thing, performing is another. The rookie winger has an opportunity to do something that hasn’t been done in 21 years in this organization. He has the opportunity to debut –and make an impact– as a rookie in the playoffs. Tony Amonte was the last Ranger to do so in 1991, now Kreider will likely have his shot.
While this season the Rangers top defensemen have undoubtedly been the Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh tandem, perhaps one of the most key aspects of a successful first round series against the Ottawa Senators may be the play (and subsequent impact) of Marc Staal.
Without doubt Staal is and has been a number one defenseman but as everyone knows, injury has meant his play has taken a while to get close to his own high standards. Indeed, he’s still not the Marc Staal of old however his play has been steadily improving of late and how Staal handles the quick and tricky Senators offense could have a huge bearing on the series.
Every Ranger fan know of the team’s 1-2-1 record in the four games against the Sens this year and will be acutely aware of how the team has struggled to score against them. Amid the 14 goals credited to the Sens in the season series it perhaps went unnoticed that Girardi was a -3 in those four games while Ryan McDonagh was -1.
Both players were also held scoreless despite providing the Rangers with solid offensive seasons with 29 and 32 points respectively. Clearly neither player has produced their best performances against the Sens and therefore how guys like Mike Del Zotto, but especially Marc Staal, cope in the series will be essential. The Rangers don’t want the top pairing munching 30+ minutes a night if they have realistic designs of a deep run.
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With the recent signing/extension of Nicklas Grossman the Philadelphia Flyers achieved three things. First of all they overpaid for a good but not elite defensive defenseman, secondly they gave themselves potential cap headaches this summer with the likes of Matt Carle, Jaromir Jagr and Jakub Voracek to re-sign (headaches could disappear depending on the Pronger situation) and finally they made Glen Sather once again look like an astute general manager.
Dan Girardi has played an All Star calibre season, has been an absolute rock on the blue line and is once again close to a 30 point season proving he is effective at both ends of the ice. With that all considered, comparing his deal to Grossman’s new deal of $3.5m, Sather managed to produce a bargain with the Girardi deal.
Girardi’s deal comes in at $3.25m for another couple of seasons and his deal in addition to Marc Staal’s (a very reasonable cap hit of $3.9m when health and form allow) are blue line reasons why Sather won’t struggle to reward the likes of Mike Del Zotto and Brandon Prust this summer.
Cap Geek list Dan Girardi as a comparable to Nicklas Grossman but really comparing Girardi to the Swede in anything other than price tag is doing Girardi a disservice. Girardi is a much more rounded player than Grossman. He out hits, out blocks and out scores Grossman and very few players in the entire league play the same minutes as Girardi. Who’s worth more? Girardi without question.
Next season including Pronger, the Flyers have over 20 million committed to their blue line – quite a chunk. The Rangers, without factoring in a raise for Del Zotto and adding another defenseman ‘only’ have approximately 10 million committed to their blue line. I know which blue line I would rather have right now. Keep up the good work this summer Mr Sather.
With last night’s victory over the Flyers, the Rangers clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and home ice until the Stanley Cup Finals. Next up on that agenda is the President’s Trophy, awarded to the best team in the regular season. Only the Canucks and Blues are competing with the Rangers for the Trophy, and the Blueshirts currently have an edge on both of them.
The Rangers and Canucks are currently tied with 109 points in 80 games, and the Blues sit right below them with 106 points in 79 games. If all three teams win out, then the Rangers and Canucks would finish with 113 points, and the Blues with 112 points. However, the Rangers have the first tiebreaker over both teams with 47 regulation/OT wins. The Blues have 44, and the Canucks have 42. This gives the Rangers a clear advantage over both teams, and makes them the front runner for the President’s Trophy.
Since the Canucks have the lead on the Blues, let’s focus on them. The Rangers would need to finish tied with the Canucks in points to clinch the President’s Trophy. The Canucks can finish with 113 points at best, which means the Rangers would just need to match that to edge them out, making their magic number four points. Any combination of four points earned by the Rangers or lost by the Canucks means that the Rangers would win the President’s Trophy.
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