Radical Stat Proposal: The Own-Goal

I understand I may be a little biased when it comes to this subject, being a goalie and all, but before you judge, hear me out.  Think about how many times during the course of your hockey watching career you have seen a goal hit an unsuspecting defender’s skate/pant/shin pad and go in behind a goalie who should have been innocently watching that puck sail wide.  Should the goalie be responsible for this?  If the goalie does his part to keep the shooter from putting the puck into the net only to be foiled by his own teammate, should the stats reflect his “failure”?

Therein lies the crux of the issue.  If you were to quantify the number of times the puck inadvertently bounced off the defenseman into the net in his own stats, as an evaluator, can tell that number most likely represents a fluky sample.  However, it is much more difficult to extract those types of situations from traditional goalie stats.  Let’s say hypothetically that our sample defensive group is guilty of 12 own-goals for the season.  Unless some deeper statistical tendencies (a subject for another post) could be derived from the number, you can see that 12 instances of bad luck found their way into the back of the team’s net.  If those twelve goals were embedded into the rate stats for the goalie for the season, it changes the equation significantly.  For example, last season Hank played 66.8 games (4007 min.) and had a very respectable 2.28 GAA.  He allowed 152 goals during that time.  If you subtract our own-goal sample out of 12 goals, it brings his goals allowed down to 140.  His GAA goes from 2.28 to 2.10. His save % goes from .923 to .928.

This exercise works for two purposes.  First, is proper allocation of responsibility for what occurs on the ice.  While it may seem harsh to punish the defensemen tying a guy up in front of the net who falls victim to a bad bounce he probably couldn’t have avoided, this happens all the time with the +/- statistic.  Back-checking forwards can be victimized by the dreaded minus because a 2-on-1 goal is scored.  Seems unfair, right?  The goalie playing the position properly should not be held responsible when a shot, which is not a shot on goal, falls into the back of his net due to one of his teammates.

The second purpose is one of evaluation.  As I mentioned before, it is much more difficult to dig these fluky situations out of goalie’s rate stats.  All they do is serve to skew the perception of the goalie’s abilities when examining these stats.  Also, if one defensemen has an excessive amount of own-goals over the course of a large enough sample, it may tell you something about that defensemen’s positioning tendencies.  Assuming you can draw information outside of small sample-size noise, it could be a useful tool in improving defensive positioning.

The NHL will probably never adopt the own-goal statistic, but I think that it makes a ton of sense.  From a defensemen’s standpoint they are an isolated incident.  As long as they fall within an average statistical range, they can be dismissed as bad luck.  For the goalie, it can be the difference between a good season and a Vezina season.  As the statistical evaluation models become more advanced and we start to quantify more minutia that happens on the ice, I still hold out some hope we could employ this type of stat to understand that line that blurs skill and luck.

* For clarification purposes, the scoring on the own-goal would still be a goal for the last offensive player to touch the puck, but would be treated like an empty net goal for the purposes of goalie stats and credited to the defensive player whom the puck deflected off of.

First Half Highlights

This video was posted on Youtube, and is a pretty good quality version of the Rangers first half highlights. Enjoy.

WHALE RECAP – St. John’s IceCaps 2, Connecticut Whale 1 (OT)

St. John’s IceCaps 2, Connecticut Whale 1 (OT)

 

By Brian Ring

Hartford, CT, January 20, 2012 - The Connecticut Whale were defeated in overtime, 2-1, by the St. John’s IceCaps Friday night at the XL Center. Jason Jaffray recorded the game-winning goal for St. John’s just 16 seconds into overtime on a tough deflection. Erik Christensen tallied the lone goal for the Whale in the contest.

“We got better as the game went on, it was important to get a point,” said Whale head coach Ken Gernander. “It was a much needed point at this juncture.”

The IceCaps got on the board first, as Riley Holzapfel cashed in on the third St. John’s power-play of the opening period. Holzapfel would stuff defenseman Paul Postma’s rebound past Whale goaltender Cam Talbot (35 saves) with 2:29 remaining in the frame. Spencer Machacek also assisted on the goal, registering his team-leading 29^th point (10-19-29).

Neither team would score in the second period, despite each side receiving a pair of power-play opportunities. St. John’s goaltender Edward Pasquale (26 saves) kept the IceCaps out in front with an incredible diving save midway through the period, gloving Kris Newbury’s point-blank try with a last-ditch effort.

Christensen tied the game with his second goal in as many games at 16:33 of the third period, deflecting Tim Erixon’s shot from the point under the crossbar past Pasquale. Tommy Grant set up the play, earning the secondary assist.

That would be all of the scoring through regulation, as for the second straight period the IceCaps outshot the Whale 11-9. Talbot, however, stood tall for Connecticut and Pasquale’s efforts kept the Whale from taking the lead on multiple chances later on in the third frame.

The Whale and IceCaps headed to overtime knotted at just a goal apiece, but Jaffray would end the game on the first shift of the extra period. Jaffray got his stick on an Aaron Gagnon shot, which knuckled the puck through the air and past Talbot for the game-winner. Brett Festerling also assisted on the goal, which sent the Whale to their eighth straight defeat in 2012 (0-6-1-1).  The Whale did, though, get at least a standings point for the eighth consecutive home game (5-0-1-2).

“We have another big opponent (the Norfolk Admirals) tomorrow night, but it’s a starting point,” said Gernander. “We need a bigger, more concerted effort to get over the hump here.”

Saturday night, January 21, features a doubleheader of hockey action at the XL Center.  At 3:00 PM, the Boston Blades of the Canadian Women’s Hockey League, the top league in women’s pro hockey, take on Team Alberta in a CWHL regular-season contest, the “International Women’s Hockey Challenge”, presented by Aetna.  Then, at 7:00, the Whale face off against the Admirals.  A ticket to the Whale game is also good for admission to the CWHL contest.  Also on Saturday night, 3,000 fans receive a Wade Redden bobblehead, courtesy of Click It or Ticket.

Tickets to that game, and all Whale home games, are available at the Public Power Ticket Office at the XL Center, as well as on-line at www.ctwhale.com and through TicketMaster Charge-by-phone at 1-800-745-3000.

 

 

 

St. John’s IceCaps 2 (OT) at Connecticut Whale 1
Friday, January 20, 2012 – XL Center Veterans Memorial Coliseum

St. John’s 1 0 0 1 – 2
Connecticut 0 0 1 0 – 1

1st Period-1, St. John’s, Holzapfel 8 (Postma, Machacek), 17:31 (PP). Penalties-Klassen Ct (cross-checking), 1:49; Klassen Ct (boarding), 9:39; Christensen Ct (hooking), 15:48; Machacek Stj (hooking), 19:13.

2nd Period- No Scoring. Penalties-served by Gregoire Stj (bench minor – too many men), 5:52; Postma Stj (tripping), 7:59; Voros Ct (roughing), 12:31; Nightingale Ct (roughing), 17:28.

3rd Period-2, Connecticut, Christensen 2 (Erixon, Grant), 3:27. Penalties-Kulda Stj (fighting), 1:30; Newbury Ct (fighting), 1:30; Thuresson Ct (cross-checking), 7:02.

OT Period-3, St. John’s, Jaffray 12 (Gagnon, Festerling), 0:16. Penalties-No Penalties

Shots on Goal-St. John’s 14-11-11-1-37. Connecticut 9-9-9-0-27.
Power Play Opportunities-St. John’s 1 / 6; Connecticut 0 / 3.
Goalies-St. John’s, Pasquale 8-5-0 (27 shots-26 saves). Connecticut, Talbot 9-10-0 (37 shots-35 saves).
A-3,957
Referees-Jarrod Ragusin (54), Chris Brown (86).
Linesmen-Luke Galvin (2), Brent Colby (7).

Puck Daddy: Assailant Arrested For Winter Classic Assault

Per Puck Daddy, who did a great job getting this out, the New Jersey police have arrested Denis Veteri in connection with the beating of Neal Auricchio following the Winter Classic at Geno’s Steaks. Per the police report, Veteri is believed to have thrown the first punch.

Auricchio is an Iraqi War veteran and a police officer, who was off duty at the time.

Big time props go to Broad Street Hockey as well.

The Goon; A Hockey Fan’s Must See

If you’re a hockey fan you need to check this film out. Sean William Scott is brilliant as the simple but sympathetic bouncer turned hockey fighter Doug Glatt. There’s plenty to like about the film including some great performances from Scott and Liev Schreiber (normally a serious actor but great as the aging legendary fighter Ross Rhea).

As you’d expect, there’s plenty of great one liners as well as  stupid moments and while the film is slightly clichéd – loser comes good, good guy gets the girl etc – it’s just simply good fun. The story line is certainly a simple one. Glatt is coasting through life and a pivotal moment in his life presents him with the opportunity to use his one skill in life (fighting) in a new role as a hockey player. He takes his opportunity and runs with it serving as protector for the moody, underperforming French Canadian star on his team. There’s plenty of idiocy along the way and the film naturally draws comparisons with Happy Gilmore and Slap Shot.

The film doesn’t do hockey a disservice either. The actual hockey footage isn’t bad and the fighting (which there is plenty of) is pretty comical. It’s a shame they felt the need to use Georges Laraque in the film but I guess no film can be perfect. There’s a nice underlying theme of how respect in hockey is important in the film; both between players (Rhea and Glatt) and how hockey players don’t walk on their team’s logo – you know Tortorella would have approved.

The film takes a light hearted view at some hockey stereotypes beyond just the ‘goon’, as they take digs at the Canadian accent (try and count the ‘eh’s’) and French Canada’s obsession with itself, not to mention the slightly crazy goaltender type (Bryzgalov would be great in this film). There’s also the grizzled veteran who looks eerily like Jaromir Jagr and the slightly awkward Eastern European players.

Jay Baruchel who was also in Tropic Thunder and Knocked Up (equally stupid but fun comedies) is hilarious as the awkward, slightly rotten and off beat best friend while the film is foul mouthed and really serves up to glorify the goon/enforcer role. It’s just funny, doesn’t take itself seriously and is well worth a two hour trip to the cinema.

Christmas Link Dump

Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Happy Holidays. All that good stuff. Today’s link dump is the only post for today, enjoy.

Jesse Spector of The Sporting News has some great quotes from Rangers players about how the coaching staff has been instrumental in getting the team past the rash of injuries on the blue line. Hopefully this is another blow to the “Fire Torts” crowd. He’s been fantastic and the team follows him. What more do you need?

Good friend of the blog Chris Peters Of United States of Hockey has a breakdown of Team USA for this year’s World Junior Championships. Rangers 2011 first round pick JT Miller made the squad, which is very strong again this year. Miller follows the likes of Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh, and Derek Stepan in representing Team USA.

If you don’t watch ESPN (I don’t blame you), then you missed this hilarious video of Derek Stepan calling in and surprising Linda Cohn (a life long Ranger fan) on the air. Here’s the video.

Sunday Link Dump: The Facebook Fail

It’s Sunday, which means it’s time for the weekly link dump of posts from around the interwebs regarding the Rangers and any other interesting bits of news from around the league.

It’s amazing how little hockey is in the minds of pop culture in this country. This is most evident with Facebook, when people are posting about the New York Rangers, but yet the social media conglomerate assumes they are posting about the Texas Rangers. In November and December. Facebook Fail. Eric at 5-hole blog picked this up, and I have to admit it’s a bit embarassing for both the sport and Facebook itself. Let’s see if we can fix that, mmkay?

Friend of the blog Inferno over at Rangers Review has finally enabled comments on his blog. Inferno does a great job reviewing the x’s and o’s of each game, and you should defintely be reading his blog if you aren’t already.

Another good friend of the blog Cris Cohen of Hockey Independent has her own take on the Derek Boogaard/enforcer situation that is in the forefront of NHL news lately. Whether Gary Bettman wants to admit it or not, this is an issue that the NHL will need to address. The evidence is not “inconclusive” as the good commish stated the other day. This needs to be addressed, and there is no easy answer here. People are dying.

The Rangers organization earned their 2,500th win last night when they beat the Sabres 4-1. The organization was founded in 1926, and last year was the 85th anniversary of the club. That averages out to about 29 wins per season. The numbers themselves look bleak, but let’s remember that the NHL schedule was not always 82 games (it was 44 games when the Rangers were founded).

Stadium Journey: A Review Of The XL Center

I received another email from the guys over at Stadium Review, where they post overall reviews of many different aspects of sports arenas. They had initially contacted me regarding their review of MSG, and this time they have performed a review of the XL Center, home of the CT Whale.  This review includes seven catagories (Food/Beverage, Atmosphere, Neighborhood, Fans, Access, Return On Investment, Extras) and is rated on a 1-5 scale. For those that are planning on attending a game or two in Hartford, this is definitely worth the read. Hartford fans are still passionate about their hockey, even if it’s not NHL hockey.

Read the entire review here.

A Team That Could Learn From The Rangers

I remember the first time I visited the Devils new front office in Newark. The place was interesting to say the least. EVERYTHING was painted horror movie red. The walls. Red. The carpeting. Red. I mean even the friggan cubicles were all red. Red everywhere. I felt like I had stepped into hell.

Of course I was there on business and I had to put my observations and prejudices aside, but it was hard not to feel like I was behind enemy lines. Once I got over it though, I realized that everything was done with a sense of pride and precision. I admired that.

But then something happened to the Devils organization. For the first time ever they started making money. Revenue from their new arena came in from sponsors, corporate suites, even attendance numbers increased (marginally). Finally the organization that had gotten by on barebones all of a sudden had some resources. Most people thought this would be a good thing…hell a great thing to cement the idea that hockey can succeed in New Jersey without the help of our boys in blue. But as Biggie Smalls once said, “mo money, mo problems.”

It has been reported in small doses that Lou Lamoriello was pushed by ownership to sign Ilya Kovalchuck to that massive 15 year, $100 million deal. Some Rangers fans were bummed that Sather didn’t try to swing a deal, others (like myself) wondered what the hell were the Devils thinking? But I am not here to debate this transaction. For better or worse, Kovy is a Devil till the bitter end.

The problem is the Devils are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by sticking with regimented coaches and defensive systems while boasting a talent such as Ilya. Add to the fact that the team’s finances collapsed and now you’ve got the Caps joining our conference, and it’s easy to see why they could have one hell of a problem across the Hudson.

So what are our rivals to do?

The organization is obviously looking for new investors to fix their financial woes, but the on ice product can improve if they follow a model once used by their biggest rival, the New York Rangers.

Read more »

Sunday Reads

5 in a row, 12 of 14, best record in the league. That there makes pretty reading doesn’t it? With the Rangers on a free day before skating at the Garden Monday morning it figures to be a slow news day so just go and enjoy the adulation you’ll likely read around the World Wide Web. The Rangers go for win number 2500 against the Leafs on Monday and with a 7-1-1 record and a ton of momentum (not to mention the Leafs faltering) there’s a good chance they get it. Let’s hope so. Here’s your Sunday Link Dump.

I don’t usually post the beat writer’s links here because, well, most of you know where to go for those guys’s stuff. That said I want to highlight Andrew Gross’ wrap. Why? Sean Avery. Gross, stating it’s his own opinion indicates a potential lack of trust for the lack of ice time Avery received after two periods. The way he writes it I’m OK with Tort’s decision too. If you’re chasing a game, one in which you need to stay disciplined and get hold of the puck you need your top guys out there. Hey, it paid off.

For your junior fix, Jess at the Prospect Park talks JT Miller and the Rangers prospects right here. I for one think Miller should head to the AHL next year as the way the Rangers are going and with Kreider dominant I don’t see any ice time for the rookie in NY. I think the hysteria wouldn’t do him any good either right now. Let the kid play, absolutely no rush right now.

For a dose of realism (?) or at least tempering some people’s hysteria, Rangers Review looks at the game last night, looking at the good and the bad.

Side note: Anyone that follows me on Twitter and see my Rangers goal tweets; you think Sam Rosen should adopt them? How entertaining would that be? Ok, maybe he’d get sacked. Never mind………

I love reading his mail bag and I’m sure many of you do too, but if not familiar then check out Darren Dreger and his question and answer sessions. If it’s to Canada-centric for you, write in and complain. Or just tell me not to post it again; whatever.

For you Chris Kreider fans, the Boston Globe checks out last night’s revenge win against Boston University. Kreider scored his twelfth goal of the year in the game and keeps on rolling.

Last but certainly not least on this lazy Sunday is news of the latest win for the CT Whale. The PP absolutely exploded for the baby Rangers and was certainly the key to the win. Good to see Andre Devaux take his demotion to the AHL well (also, take note who scored for the Falcons…)

Anyway, that’s your Sunday reads. I’m a Giants fan so anyone on twitter later today that sees me foul mouth and bitch about my NFL team’s latest defeat knows why: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is why. Pessimistic? Uh-huh.