Game 49 Preview: Rangers at Sabres

Standings: Sabres (21-24-5), Rangers (31-12-5)

NYR Leading Scorer: Marian Gaborik (25-16-41)
NJD Leading Scorer: Jason Pominville (17-30-47)

NYR Goaltender: Henrik Lundqvist (36 GS, 1.87 GAA, .940 SV%)
NJD Goaltender: Ryan Miller (31 GS, 2.99 GAA, .900 SV%)

Rangers Lines (probable):

Carl Hagelin-Derek Stepan-Marian Gaborik
Brandon Dubinsky-Brian Boyle-Ryan Callahan
Ruslan Fedotenko-Brad Richards-Brandon Prust
Mike Rupp-Artem Anisimov-John Mitchell

Ryan McDonagh-Dan Girardi
Marc Staal-Michael Del Zotto
Stu Bickel-Anton Stralman

Henrik Lundqvist gets the start.

Scratches/Injuries: Mike Sauer (concussion), Jeff Woywitka (foot), Wojtek Wolski (healthy), Erik Christensen (healthy), Steve Eminger (shoulder)

Preview: The last time the Rangers met the Sabres was in December, with the Rangers coming out on top 4-1. That is to be expected, as the Rangers have made it a habit of beating teams they are supposed to beat this year, and the Sabres are no different. This will be the second meeting between these two teams, and the Rangers should be expected to win a few more with the Sabres struggling so mightily.

The Sabres made a big splash in the offseason with trades and free agent signings, but nothing has worked out as planned. Couple that with an off year for Ryan Miller, and the Sabres are in the toilet this season. It’s gotten so bad that the Sabres are already rumored to be selling off some pieces this deadline.

Buffalo used to be a team that gave the Rangers trouble with their speed and constant forecheck, however that wasn’t the case in December. This could be a dangerous game for the Rangers, but they’ve been able to handle these forechecking teams –aside from Montreal– all year. Expect this to be a faster paced game.

Crazy Thought: Ville Leino earns his contract over the next six years.

Opponent’s Blog: Buffalo Sabres Nation

Game time is 7:30pm on NBC Sports, AM1050, and XM92.

Style Analysis: Martin Biron

Since the Rangers have gotten such stellar goaltending this season, I thought I’d do an in-depth evaluation on what makes these guys so good at their craft.  I am going to break each of the Rangers’ tender’s styles down into five categories: Stance, Movement/Crease depth, Equipment, Puck playing ability and Exploitable weaknesses.  First up is Marty Biron, and Hank will follow shortly.

Stance

Biron utilizes a fairly standard stance set-up.  He has his feet a little more than shoulder width apart and balances his body weight well.  He seems to hold his body posture in a comfortable position, which allows him to have relatively little excess movement when he executes a save.

Crease movement/depth

Marty is actually one of the more “old school” goalies in the NHL (obviously, that distinction does to the other Marty).  He rarely uses butterfly slides to move around down low.  While he does execute the butterfly as a save technique, it’s not much of a movement vehicle for him.  He is a strong skater and relies much more on a standard up and down game for lateral mobility.

Benoit Allaire is a proponent of having his goalies play a little deeper in the net than your average keeper.  The logic behind this is that it takes less distance to travel laterally if you aren’t taking an angle from higher outside of the crease.  Since the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, it is much easier to go from post to post than it is to load up your push foot and angle yourself from the top (or outside) the crease to the appropriate post.  What you sacrifice for this decrease in distance to cover is the angle to the shooter.  The closer you are to the shooter (assuming you are on your angle), the less net he can see behind you.  There is a point of diminishing returns, but usually < 6 inches or so outside the top of the crease will give you the optimal depth on the original shot.

Biron tends to take the middle road for approaching a shooter.  He doesn’t operate nearly as deep in the net as Hank does, but he tends to play deeper than your average goalie.  Because of his size (6’2”, 180 lbs) and his solid positioning, it is a beneficial style for him to play.

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Getting Shots On Net On The Powerplay

Although I was unable to watch the full game last night, I caught the Rangers In 60, so I caught most of the highlights. The Rangers again went oh-for-the-powerplay last night, making their stretch of games without a powerplay goal something like 700 games. The powerplay has done some good things (although last night it stunk), but the end result is what matters, and the end result is still no goals.

The forwards on the powerplay have been relatively consistent. They are cycling the puck, they are getting decent shot opportunities, and they are creating open space. That part we can see. The problem is that those “shot opportunities” are few and far between. The reason being is that when the point men do not put the puck on net, the penalty killers can cheat a little bit and cut off passing/shooting lanes for the forwards.

Therein lies the issue: the point men are not shooting the puck. Brad Richards, Michael Del Zotto, Ryan McDonagh, and Dan Girardi need to start ripping shots on net from the point with the man advantage on a more regular basis.

Why? Because it will keep the penalty killers honest. Even if the shots aren’t the howitzers that Zdeno Chara and Shea Weber can rip, they are shots that will be on net that have a chance of going in. That in itself is enough to force at least some attention to be paid to the point men.

Another good aspect of shooting from the point? Rebounds. The Rangers have scored most of their goals this year from the dirty areas on the ice. Ryan Callahan and Marian Gaborik are crashing the net more and looking for those garbage goals.

Hockey Fundamentals 101: Shoot the puck low and hard from the point, generating rebounds, and crash the net.

That folks is what the Rangers are not doing on the powerplay. It’s a bit weird because they are doing it at even strength, but they seem to forget to do it while with the man advantage. I’m no coach, and I’m sure John Tortorella has said this ad nauseum to his team, but they appear to be too fancy with the puck while on the powerplay.

As RangerSmurf pointed out in the comments of a separate post, the Rangers are simply not getting the same number of shots on net that they got last year. The conversion rate (in shots per 60 minutes with the man advantage) is the same, meaning they are converting on the same percentage of shots taken, but they are taking significantly less shots. When they take less shots, they have less goals, hence the dip of almost 4% on their overall powerplay conversion rate.

With the Rangers, it’s simple. More shots equals more goals.

Guest Recap: JordanO

None of us were able to watch the game tonight, so BSB poster JordanO volunteered to pen the recap for tonight. Thanks JordanO, much appreciated. Enjoy folks.

After a week layoff due to the all-star break, the Rangers drew a rivalry game right out of the gate, facing the Devils for the second time this season. There would be no All – Star break hangover in this one, as the two teams battled into overtime in a game that changed hands multiple times. In the end the Rangers could not hold onto a late third period lead, coming away with just one point as the Devils prevailed in the shootout.

The Rangers got on the board first, tallying with just 32 seconds left in the opening period. Brodeur made a kick save on a wrist shot from Marion Gaborik, and Anton Stralman was there to put the rebound into the net. Stralman’s second goal of the year gave the Rangers a 1-0 lead heading into the first intermission.

In the second period, the Devils answered, finding the net to tie the game on a good play by their captain. Zach Parise collected his own rebound and fired a shot from a tough angle, beating Martin Biron over his shoulder on the blocker side.

The Rangers had a number of good opportunities in the 2nd period. The best chance came when a long pass from Stralman found Brad Richards for a breakaway, but Marty Brodeur made the toe save with his left skate.

In the final stanza, the action really heated up. The Rangers started the period on the power play, but it nearly cost them. After the Rangers couldn’t keep the puck in at the point, Kovalchuck got a breakaway attempt, but Biron slid over to make the pad save.

The Rangers then took a 2-1 lead on a play that left Brodeur flopping around his own crease. Stu Bickel took a slap shot from the point that hit Brian Boyle, and Boyle collected the pick and skated around the diving Brodeur, and lifted the puck into the open side of the net.

Late in the game Artem Anisimov took an ill-timed slashing penalty to put the Rangers on the penalty kill with just over five minutes left in the third. The Devils capitalized, as some good passing found Kovalchuck, who had pestered the Rangers all night. His goal tied the game at 2.

However, it took the Rangers all of 36 seconds to answer. Marion Gaborik did an excellent job of keeping control of the puck with the defender all over him, and slid a perfect backhanded pass across the slot. Michael Del Zotto released the one-timer for the Rangers to retake the lead.

It looked the Blueshirts would hold on to that lead, but the Devils scored with an extra attacker on in the final minute. NJ dumped the puck in, and a fortunate bounce off the end boards found David Clarkson right in front of the net, and he scored to send it to overtime.

The five extra minutes were played at a frantic pace, with each team having a golden opportunity to win the game. The Rangers dodged a bullet early when Ryan McDonagh made a spectacular play. Danius Zubrus nearly put one in the net, put McDonagh got his stick on the puck and forced it out.

On the other end, Derek Stepan made a beautiful play, but just couldn’t get the puck in the net. He stickhandled around the defense and tried to sneak the puck in from the side of the net. The puck slid directly across the goal line, but somehow did not go in.

With that, the teams went to the shootout. Kovalchuck beat Biron through a wide open 5-hole, and Brodeur stood his ground to give New Jersey the 4-3 victory, with the Rangers earning a point out of the ordeal.

Notes / Analysis:

• Tortorella made the decision to go with Biron in the first game out of the break with Henrik having in Ottawa for the All-Star festivities. Biron has been solid this season, and was strong at times today, but Lundqvist could have been the difference maker in this one. He had started the previous 32 games against NJ, instead he’ll face the Sabres tomorrow.
• The Rangers powerplay continues to noticeably struggle. John Mitchell was out their on the advantage in the second period to try something different.
• Two assists each for Gaborik and Hagelin, each time setting up defensemen. Stepan wasn’t very visible on that line until his great play in OT that should have iced a Ranger win.
• Similar story for McDonagh, a few defensive lapses for him early, but he saved the game with a great play in OT.
• Stralman played a good game at both ends. Had the first goal, plus a nice long pass to Richards to set up a breakaway.
• The Rangers defensemen continue to join the rush and become a big part of the attack. Not only did two defensemen score, but the Rangers had a good chance in the second period with Girardi and McDonagh skating up the ice on a 2-on-1.
• The Rangers had Brodeur out of sorts a number of times throughout the game, especially on the Boyle goal, but he came up strong in the shootout to deny Richards and Gaborik.
• Secondary scoring really counted in this game for NY, with Stralman (2nd of the year), Boyle (4th of the year), and Del Zotto (6th of the year) finding the net.

Don’t forget to follow JordanO on Twitter here.

Game Preview: Rangers vs. Devils

Standings: Devils (26-19-3), Rangers (31-12-4)

NYR Leading Scorer: Marian Gaborik (25-14-39)
NJD Leading Scorer: Patrik Elias (18-28-46)

NYR Goaltender: Martin Biron (11 GS, 1.87 GAA, .930 SV%)
NJD Goaltender: Martin Brodeur (31 GS, 2.77 GAA, .894 SV%)

Rangers Lines (probable):

Carl Hagelin-Derek Stepan-Marian Gaborik
Brandon Dubinsky-Brian Boyle-Ryan Callahan
Ruslan Fedotenko-Brad Richards-Brandon Prust
Mike Rupp-Artem Anisimov-John Mitchell

Ryan McDonagh-Dan Girardi
Marc Staal-Michael Del Zotto
Stu Bickel-Anton Stralman

Martin Biron gets the start.

Scratches/Injuries: Mike Sauer (concussion), Jeff Woywitka (foot), Wojtek Wolski (healthy), Erik Christensen (healthy), Steve Eminger (shoulder)

Preview: The last time these two teams met in December the Rangers defeated the Devils 4-1. Since that time the Devils have struggled to find consistency in their overall game. They beat the teams they should be beating and they lose to the teams you’d expect them to lose to. Mark of a mediocre team I suppose. With that said, Rangers/Devils games are never predictable and we shouldn’t take them for granted despite their injuries & 8th place standing.

Under Deboer, the Devils still trap up the neutral zone like they always have and are adept at limiting opposing offenses. Their penalty kill is among the league’s best, so that could play to their favor as the Rangers have been struggling this month to get consistency out of their offense.

With the dog days of the season in front of us, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some low scoring games. The Rangers are built to win in this fashion and tonight would be a good way to set the tone.

Crazy Thought: Zach Parise admits to John Giannone that he’s bored of living in Hoboken and is ready to move to Manhattan. Let the foreshadowing begin!

Opponent’s Blog: Pucks And Pitchforks

Game time is 7:00pm on MSG2 (listings), AM1050, and XM92.

The Myth Of The “Untouchable” Player/Prospect

The term “untouchable” is often tossed around on Twitter, on blogs, and around the interwebs in many different forms. “Untouchable” is a term that fans have given to players they have either grown attached to, think are special in some way, or are vital to the organization’s well being. In the business that is hockey, there is no such thing as an “untouchable” player. Everyone can be had in the right deal. Including the most important player the Rangers have had since Brian Leetch: Henrik Lundqvist.

Now, will Lundqvist be traded? Absolutely not. But let’s say the Red Wings came calling for Hank, and they offered up Jimmy Howard, Henrik Zetterberg, and a top prospect for Lundqvist. Only a fool would say no to that trade. We all love Lundqvist, but in this case, I make that trade. Remember: emotions have no place in the business of the game.

“Untouchable” is a phrase that is used for prospects as well, which is mind boggling to be honest. I again use the Bobby Ryan for Chris Kreider scenario. Ryan is proven, and still young. Kreider is still unknown, and at his absolute peak is what Bobby Ryan is today. If the Ducks ask for Kreider for Ryan, you make the trade (assuming the other pieces make sense of course).

The phrase “untouchable” is a phrase used by those who have formed emotional attachments to players, prospects, and picks. Any player, any prospect, or any pick can be had in the right deal. It is a general manager’s job to evaluate all possible trades and determine the best path for his team’s success. If that means trading the captain, or the top prospect, or the heart of the team, then so be it. It is the cost of doing business in the NHL.

Actually, the more I write this post, the more I realize there are a few players that are “untouchable”. Those are the players with no-movement or no-trade clauses. They are “untouchable” because they can’t be moved without their approval. But even then, they aren’t really “untouchable”, they are just more difficult to move.

Is there an end to the madness that is the phrase “untouchable?” Likely not, but might I suggest saying “It would take a big overpayment to get that player.” Much like the Lundqvist example above, the Rangers aren’t moving him unless there is a huge overpayment. No general manager would make that trade, but it’s a trade that would make Hank very, very movable. No one is “untouchable.” Period.

Trade Deadline: Discount Deals For Depth

Last week during my musings, I briefly mentioned how some of these sites dedicated to spreading trade rumors don’t really see what makes our team successful on a game to game basis. More often than not they attach the Rangers to (supposedly) available players who don’t really fit our blueprint (i.e. Souray, Hemsky, Carter, etc).

Today I want to discuss some candidates who could potentially fit within our team concept; players who I think could succeed in our deep forechecking system and under a coach who demands that his players commit to back pressure.

Before I get started, I just want to reiterate that I still believe the Rangers can beat anybody with the personnel they currently have. I’m not opposed to standing pat at the deadline, especially since the demand for top six forwards will likely outweigh supply. However, should an opportunity present itself to acquire some depth, I might make a move if the price is right.

With that said, here are several players I think are worth working the phones for.

Dustin Penner – LW (6’4 240 lbs): The 29 year old is having a down year for the Kings offensively (11pts in 38 gp), but so is everyone else it seems on that roster. Prior to joining the Kings stifling defensive system, he typically averaged 25 goals a season for the Oilers & Ducks.

Penner isn’t going to solve our power play woes on his own, but having a big boy with a nose for the crease could help at least one aspect of it, especially against a team like the Bruins. I’m sure being on the last year of his contract ($4.2M) could motivate him if he gets a change of scenery.

Chad LaRose LW/RW (5’10 180 lbs): LaRose is more of a 30-40 point energy guy for the Canes and not someone with a lot of upside, but I think he’d fit given his ability to forecheck and work the boards. His plus/minus is ugly (-21), but his relative Corsi numbers (a good puck possession metric) puts him 3rd among Canes starters.

LaRose, who has one year left on his contract (at $1.7M), has 21 points thus far, which isn’t bad for a guy starting 43% of his starts in the OZ and only getting 14 mins/game. With the Maple Leafs also in the hunt for for a top six winger – and apparently willing to part with top prospects -pursuing a depth forward like LaRose may be the better play for us.

Dominic Moore – C/LW (5’11 185 lbs): Moore is a pain in the ass to play against. He’s one of those Avery-types who does all of the cheap BS after the whistle like bumping your goaltender, taking whacks at your limbs, etc, which invariably draws penalties. He’s pretty much no use to a non-playoff team like Tampa Bay.

Moore is a good skater, strong on faceoffs (winning 54% to date), and has some pop on offense on the cheap ($1.1M cap hit for around 30-35 points). He may not be physical enough for Torts’ liking, but he’d be an upgrade over someone like Erik Christensen.

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Time For The Offense (Powerplay) To Get Going

The Rangers have had a bit of an issue getting consistent scoring on a game-to-game basis. Every now and then they light up an opponent, but for the most part they are getting by on goaltending, defense, luck, and goaltending. That’s not to say there’s something wrong with that, but a balanced offense would make things a lot easier. The Rangers have just four players on pace for 20 goal seasons, down from five last year. Brandon Dubinsky and Brian Boyle were in that group last year, and will need miracles to get there this year.

That leaves just Marian Gaborik, Derek Stepan, Ryan Callahan, and Brad Richards as the 20 goal guys this year. That’s simply not good enough.

In the month of January, the Rangers have played 11 games, with tomorrow night’s game in New Jersey capping the month. The Rangers have gone an impressive 8-3, but when you look at the underlying goals scored, it’s not that impressive. In those 11 games, the Rangers scored three goals 7 times, two goals once, one goal twice, and got shutout once. Not one time did the Rangers score more than three goals. This wasn’t an issue in December.

The problem is likely within the powerplay, as the Rangers have just one player with double-digit points with the man advantage (Richards). Only four other players (Gaborik, Callahan, Michael Del Zotto, Dan Girardi) have eight points or more when on the powerplay. Can you remember the last time they scored with the man advantage? I can’t.

But, the powerplay has looked good in recent games. They are moving around, moving the puck, and getting good chances. The problem is they aren’t finishing. A 14.1% powerplay conversion rate isn’t going to get them far.

However, there is room for optimism. With all the talk about regression to the mean for the Rangers, the powerplay falls in the exact opposite boat. The Rangers finished last season at 16.9% on the powerplay last season. That is almost three full percentage points higher than their 14.1% rate this year, with an upgraded unit (on paper at least). There is room for progression to the mean here.

Progression to the mean is hopefully something that can be triggered by some people moving more towards their career averages in points as the season goes along. Brad Richards is one that is struggling to meet his career average of approximately 70 points. Brandon Dubinsky has a career average of  approximately 40 points, and he –like Richards– is going to have to have a strong second half to get there.

The Rangers are winning despite their offensive woes, where there is clearly room for improvement and room for the law of averages to take effect. If they continue to falter, then that weight on Henrik Lundqvist’s shoulders is going to get mighty heavy. There’s still two and a half months to get it right.

Morrow Could Make Rangers Cup Threat

Some players simply fit well with certain teams. Brendan Morrow and the Rangers would fit. If Morrow, as suggested by TSN’s Bob McKenzie, is potentially up for grabs then the Rangers should seriously look in to getting him off the Dallas Stars.

There are several reasons Morrow would be a success as a Ranger. First of all Morrow can play the style employed by John Tortorella. He’s an excellent forechecker, plays a physical brand of hockey but is also a good finisher and has two 30 goal seasons on his resume (as well as four seasons of 49+ points). He’s also not afraid to go in to high traffic areas and look for rebounds.

Then there is the leadership and experience Morrow brings. A successful, cup contending team can never have too much leadership, it can never have too many players willing to assume responsibility and Morrow has never been a player to shy away from responsibility. He’s been a leader on the Stars for a long time now and given his previous success with Team Canada is a man that would instantly command respect in the locker room.

Morrow has experience playing with Brad Richards and adapting to the Rangers way would surely be made easier by being so familiar with someone such as Richards. Morrow would also (possibly on Richards’ line) solve an issue that is affecting the Rangers which is a top six scoring left winger that is. Anisimov has disappeared, Dubinsky has had a very underwhelming season and will all due respect, Fedotenko is not the answer for a team wanting to go deep.

Acquiring Morrow would also see other pieces fall into place to form a quality third line. While his long term future may (should?) be in the top six, acquiring Morrow would likely see Dubinsky dropping to the third line to form a dangerous trio, likely with Boyle and Prust. It allows the team to ice a third line competent both defensively and offensively, something that Morrow’s presence would cause. How does the idea of a Morrow – Richards – Callahan line sound? It would give the Rangers two first lines in theory, something this club hasn’t had much of.

Scared of the contract? Don’t be. Morrow is making a reasonable $4.1m (a similar annual salary Sean Avery makes…tumbleweed) and has one more year beyond this season. He has the quality to contribute this year and next and should he not be a success in New York, a player with his resume possessing an expiring contract should be relatively easy to move and not a subsequent cap anchor.

There are also concerns with Morrow however. He is a controversial character that has had league discipline issues and isn’t afraid to voice his opinion. Would he get along with the coach? Then there is a relatively recent injury history in which Morrow has missed significant time. Throw in the fact that the Stars are in the playoff hunt (albeit it currently on the outside looking in) and Morrow isn’t likely to be cheap if he’s available.

To sum up however, if the Rangers feel like they can contend (as they approach the deadline) Morrow makes sense for so many reasons. This team needs more offense, could benefit from more big-game experience and likely has the pieces to acquire a proven player such as Morrow. In the short term, he’s a better solution than Bobby Ryan financially, and doesn’t block the highly touted prospects (or roster youth like Hagelin) mid-to-long term. There’s a lot to like about acquiring Morrow.

2012 All Star Game Thread

A little late on this one, but here’s the game thread for the 2012 All Star Game. Lineups are below, with Marian Gaborik and Henrik Lundqvist starting for their respective teams:

Team Alfredsson:
Michalek – Spezza – Alfredsson
Couture – Giroux – Stamkos
Sedin – Sedin – Hartnell
Neal – Tavares – Pominville

Karlsson – Letang
Yandle – Weber
Edler – Girardi

Lundqvist – Quick – Elliott

Team Chara:
Gaborik – Datsyuk – Hossa
Perry – Malkin – Iginla
Lupul – Seguin – Kessel
Benn – Kane – Eberle

Chara – Campbell
Phaneuf – Wideman
Suter – Timonen

Howard – Price – Thomas