A Look At The NYR GVT/PVT Leaders

With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.

*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>

Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:

Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT

Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.

Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.

As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.

Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.

Analysis of the forwards after the jump

Hockey Tactics: Executing 2-on-1s

If you’ve ever followed a twitter feed during a Rangers telecast, then you’re probably aware of the attempts at “color analysis” that often take place. Now I’m not one to call out the preponderance of errors from the Joe Micheletti’s to be, but I do cringe at some of the faulty finger pointing.

To alleviate some of this we figured it’s about time we get back to basics and open up our hockey systems playbook. Today we will focus on executing 2-on-1s, since they often produce plenty of tweets that will read, “OMG! Dubi should have shot the puck!” or “Why the **** did Richards pass?”

In today’s NHL, an odd man situation is often a team’s best chance to score, thanks to an ever increasing sophistication to team defense & penalty killing. That’s why it is crucial these rushes be executed to perfection.

The most important aspect to getting a good quality shot on net in these situations is reading the defender. First you have to read the defender’s body position. Is he cheating toward you or his playing the pass? Defenders are taught to take away your “time and space.” This means if he’s cheating towards you, then his goal is to force you wide and eliminate your shooting angle. You also have to be cognizant of the defender’s handedness. Is his forehand facing you or is his backhand? His stick angle will tell you if he’s playing the shot or the pass.

For example, in this image below Cally and Dubi are on a 2-on-1 rush that ends with Cally putting a soft wrister right into the keeper’s belly. Looking at the photo and his options. Do you think he made the right decision?

Read more »

Brandon Dubinsky: The Case Of Unlucky And Not Shooting

Editor’s Note: This post was written prior to the Rangers/Flyers game last night. The numbers reflected in Dubinsky’s shot total and shooting percentage may be different when this post is published. However, they should not be that far off, barring a 5 goal night for the struggling center/winger.

There have been enough games played in the NHL season where we can start looking at shooting percentage and how it relates to performance. Using shooting percentage, we can see who is playing a bit over their heads, and who could be due for a big second half. Hockey can be a streaky game, and those with career highs in shooting percentage are likely to drop off a bit, while those with career lows can expect to see the puck bounce their way a bit more.

When looking at the latter, it’s tough to ignore Brandon Dubinsky, who is converting at a measly 3.9% of all shots taken (2 goals on 51 shots). There are two things that jump out here. First is the shooting percentage, which is a full six points below his career average (9.5%), but eight points below his percentage from last year (11.9%) and nine points below his numbers from 2009-2010 (12.1%). Basically, Dubinsky is getting unlucky. There could be a number of reasons for this, all of which are speculative at best. What we do know is that his shooting percentage is far below what he normally produces.

The second, and likely the most alarming, is the number of shots. Dubinsky is a shot taker, having never dropped below 150 shots taken. Last season he took 202 shots, and in 2009-2010 he took 165 shots in just 69 games (196 shot pace). To put things in perspective, that’s about 2.3 shots per game in those two seasons. This year, Dubi is averaging just 1.5 shots per game.

Generally when looking at stats like these, we talk about regression to the mean; ie: playing slightly above career averages and suspecting that there will be a cold streak to balance out the average numbers. However in Dubinsky’s case, this appears to be the exact opposite. Dubinsky is a prime candidate for progression to the mean, which means more shots as he gains more confidence, and hopefully more goals as his shot percentage climbs.

Taking this a step further, we can look at his ice time. In the Thursday game against the Islanders, when he was moved back up to the second line, Dubinsky played 13:56 at even strength with Brian Boyle and John Mitchell as his linemates. That’s a far cry from the Ryan Callahan/Artem Anisimov combo he played with last season. Dubi also received just 49 seconds of powerplay time, and none of that being with the top unit.

Ice time is earned, not given. Dubinsky has not earned more ice time yet. However, as his numbers (hopefully) return to the mean, he will get that ice time, and in turn be more productive. To get more ice time, Dubi simply needs to put more pucks on net. He’s averaging a full shot less per game than last year, and for whatever reason seems to be afraid to pull the trigger. A shooting Dubi is a productive Dubi. If we see shots, we could see a monster second half from him.

With The Blueline Crippled, The Offense (And Dubinsky) Must Step Up

The month of December has not been kind to the New York Rangers. Already without Marc Staal, the Rangers lost two –and possibly three– more defensemen to injury during this literally painful month. Mike Sauer went down with a concussion after a thunderous Dion Phaneuf hit on December 5. Then just this past weekend, the Rangers lost Steve Eminger to a separated shoulder, and may have lost Jeff Woywitka for a short period of time with a bruised ankle. When Eminger and Woywitka are considered significant injuries, then something is wrong on Broadway.

With those three (four including Woywitka) out, the Rangers are turning to rookies Tim Erixon and Stu Bickel to play decent minutes to at least keep the Rangers in the game. Along with Anton Stralman and Michael Del Zotto, that makes four defensemen who were –for all intents and purposes– not on the club last year. So much for consistency.

In the past three games, the Rangers have mustered just four goals, a trend that cannot continue. When one part of the team falters, another must step up to pick up the slack. The Rangers, as currently constructed due to injuries, cannot win defensive battles. They simply do not have the appropriate tools to shut down multiple lines of offense.

The Rangers are going to have to outscore their opponents in the short term. That means players like Brad Richards, Marian Gaborik, Artem Anisimov, Derek Stepan, and Ryan Callahan will need to continue to shoulder the load. It also means that Brandon Dubinsky must start playing like the player he was last year. If the team needs someone, it’s him.

Dubinsky is a good all around player, but is only considered to be good when he is scoring. His assist numbers are still there (he has 12), but Dubinsky has just one goal, which is unacceptable for someone making $4.25 million a year. If Dubi wants to turn the season around, this is his opportunity. The Rangers leaned on him last year when there multiple injuries to forwards, and he needs to show that they can lean on him again.

This is Dubinsky’s chance to step on the gas and show why the Rangers gave him that contract this summer, as the offense will need to bear the responsibility of carrying this team while the Rangers dress the CT Whale defense.

Shadow Looms Over Dubinsky

Unintentionally, as I wrote today’s posts it became apparent to me that it might seem like ‘Pick on Dubinsky’ day. That’s not meant to be the case at all. Potentially (key word) Dubinsky is the perfect complimentary player for this team; he fits the overall identity of this squad and is blessed with generous helpings of size, skill and usually, confidence. The problem is he’s never been consistent. If anything, this season he has gained a bad type of consistency – consistently not scoring.

Dubinsky is in grave danger of taking a seat soon. He’s not producing this year but not only does he need to get it going for the short term he may need to do so for the long term. Despite getting a generous new deal last summer there’s a chance that Dubinsky’s Ranger career is in jeopardy if this slump is prolonged.

Carl Hagelin jumped straight to the pros and looks like he’s very much a keeper at this level. His speed fits perfectly in the modern NHL and he’s an intelligent, hardworking and skilled player. Then there is a certain player – much anticipated – that has the potential to make Dubinsky redundant. Step forward Chris Kreider.

Kreider is having a terrific year for Boston College. He’s playing at a high level, leading his team offensively (23 points in 18 games, 12 goals, 3 game winners) and is physically NHL ready. Kreider, like Hagelin, has speed to burn and at 6’3 and 227 lbs has a big strong frame. Coupled with skill that’s being refined every game, Kreider could have the perfect combination for a dominant NHL forward. Basically, he may have more to offer than Dubinsky, especially if he can display consistency at the pro level.

Why should Dubinsky be worried? Tortorella has gone public with his appreciation of Hagelin’s skill set. Meanwhile the organisation publicly courted Kreider to turn pro last summer evidencing their desperation to get him in the NHL. Kreider will be in NY next summer and it won’t be to play 5 minutes a game. So, first of all Dubinsky has to be worried about the Rangers’ desire to develop the two young wingers but there is another reason Dubinsky’s role is under threat (barring a great second half to the season).

Dubinsky may have signed his own death warrant with his new contract. Should Hagelin continue his impressive start, should Kreider be ready for a top six role that the organisation want to give him then Dubinsky is making a lot of money to be a bottom six player and despite some cap space opening up in the summer the Rangers already have too much money invested in the bottom six. Especially when you consider new deals soon to be required for the likes of Prust, Del Zotto, Stepan and McDonagh.

Cap space always requires careful consideration and Dubinsky’s $4.2m cap hit is far too much for a role player. When you factor in Kreider’s cap hit likely to be a lot less than the fat deal Dubinsky’s contract carries – if the choice was a straight one or the other, it doesn’t look good for Dubi.

It’s not ‘pick on Dubinsky day’, but the posts today should really hit home the fact that Brandon Dubinsky may be approaching a serious cross road in his Rangers career. Let’s hope he finds his game because the deeper the Rangers are, the better Dubinsky is, the more likely this team becomes a contender.

With Slumping Offense Comes Change – Dubi?

Amid a scoring slump of sorts (2 games is hardly a crisis) Coach Tortorella once again swapped up his lines during the Blues game. On one occasion Carl Hagelin played opposite Marian Gaborik. With all the line changes comes speculation about the who, what, where and why’s.

Perhaps the main thing the Rangers didn’t do well against the Blues was stick to their own game. The team needs to get back to basics in the next game against Phoenix. The game against the Coyotes should signal a few changes as the Rangers need to get some snarl back and improve their overall effort. Examples may need to be made and the game should call for the inclusion of Sean Avery and Mike Rupp. There should be more ice time to Carl Hagelin whose sole mission should be to harass the puck carrier.

They need to throw the puck on net and crash the net as much as possible. What went on in St Louis was not nearly enough in regards to offense generated and the last two games have been the result of slipping play in recent games. The Rangers have had an up and down couple of weeks with some good and some bad performances.

Will Tortorella bench Brandon Dubinsky at some stage? Despite being a Dubinsky fan it’s a move I have called for, for a while. It’s becoming a serious issue. He’s well off his normal level of play and he needs a game out of the line up. While Dubinsky isn’t the only player underperforming (Brian Boyle, Fedotenko both come to mind for starters) he is the most critical element of what is going wrong.

The Rangers, especially right now, need Dubinsky to be better, much better. He’s an integral secondary scorer that simply isn’t scoring (the occasional assist doesn’t count). When the Gaborik line is being shut down so much pressure turns to Richards and Callahan to score as Fedotenko (on their line) has never been relied on for offense. So with no Dubinsky offense, the depth is tested.

It’s getting to the stage of the season where Dubinsky’s bad year threatens to undermine everything good about the year so far. His bad year threatens to adversely affect the great start to the season. He needs to be a factor going forward. I don’t buy into the apparent annual team slump around this time of year. It’s a different team with different players. What I do buy into is making changes to proactively impact players’ form. Let the players characterised by work effort and determination play. Get back to being a relentless fore-checking team and for that, at least right now, Dubi needs to sit.

Brian Boyle Needs To Be Better

Jeff Woywitka had the same amount of points as Brian Boyle prior to last night’s game. While Boyle isn’t (or at least should not be) judged purely on offensive statistics that first comment is quite a damning statement given Woywitka is a throw-in and plays minimal minutes on the bottom defensive pair. Simply put Brian Boyle, even with his goal yesterday, hasn’t been good enough consistently (the key word) this season.

We’ve not seen the same improved skating from last year, there’s been an absence of Boyle driving hard to the net using his size to his advantage and generally Boyle has failed to impose himself on games. Boyle has been OK defensively, but isn’t taking the body as well as he did last year. He needs to do more. The thing is, despite all the big name players in the Rangers top six, the presence of Boyle in his 2010-11 form would go a long way to making this team much better.

Boyle is a huge part of this team. Why? With Boyle playing like he did at times last year this team is suddenly very deep down the middle. Without that Boyle the team is simply not as deep. A good Boyle, and a good line led by Boyle, creates match-up problems for opposing teams and gives the Rangers three strong lines with different skill sets to roll with confidence.

Boyle isn’t the only Rangers forward fighting with himself to be better. Brandon Dubinsky still isn’t justifying his new deal (sorry, one goal doesn’t cut it), Brandon Prust has been indifferent (cause or effect of Boyle’s year?) while Wojtek Wolski can’t get and stay in the line up. However, if Brian Boyle can get close to his level of play from last year he helps those around him. His line playing well helps the other lines and thus it truly could be a knock on effect.

Some people might forget that Boyle had a long scoreless streak last year as well. If his current form (at least offensively) continues questions may be asked whether he was merely on a hot streak last year and it was all a flash in the pan. So far, Boyle hasn’t received much criticism. Whether that’s because of his popularity or the fact his new deal isn’t as big as a guy like Dubinsky’s is a moot point. The Rangers need him to be better and sooner rather than later.

A Streaky Musings – The ‘Winning’ Edition

Musing on this fine Thursday morning is brought to you by… one happy camper a week away from getting to New York. However, a week away from this camper’s 30^th birthday makes it less happy. Anyway, on to musings on the hottest team in hockey!

7 in a row? They haven’t played deserving of that streak, but unlike some overly dramatic bloggers out there I can see the positives. This team bends but never breaks, has a will that is mighty impressive and plays hard for each other. If you have team unity, an unwavering will to succeed and then you throw in some skill, you have the potential of a dangerous team.

Power Play, powerless… the powerplay looked good in spells, but there is still a lack of movement. I agree with Suit that with the system they are playing they need to shell the goalies from up high, but players still aren’t creating enough space.

Ryan Callahan is starting to look like last year’s edition. The best bit? With added puck possession, added depth and skill should come less of a need to block shots and this should mean less injury. Despite his all out style, there’s a greater chance we get a full year out of the Captain.

Hands up, who thought the Rangers would be tied for second in the East in points with two games in hand?

As well as they have played in recent games, (improving all the time) Anisimov and Dubinsky still need another goal or two to really get going. Both players are important forwards and a goal each after 16 games does not cut it.

So TSN initially thought Richards wasn’t living up to his end. Not only is he clutch, but he’s on course for the first 30 goal campaign of his NHL career. For a pass-first playmaker, none too shabby.

Tampa Bay was a pretty good team last year. They have a ton of talent to build around. Imagine they actually got the Richards trade right: Tampa Bay Lightning traded Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist to the Dallas Stars for Mike Smith, Jeff Halpern, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round selection in 2009…… URGH

The next five games include a hot Florida, the Capitals, Penguins and Flyers. Will we know more about the Rangers after this stretch? Sure. If they lose them all will half of Ranger nation be saying ‘sack the coach?’ Yep. A fickle lot, (some of) us fans.

I’m a Sean Avery fan. I like the ego, I like the player and I like his daring fashion sense… no really. However, let’s not anoint him ‘back’, after two good games against two weak teams. I really hope he gets it together all year because it makes the Rangers that much better, but let’s let him keep it up for a while first. There were still bad parts to Aves’ game in the last few games.

No Munn jokes here.

Who’s been the best player in the league thus far then? I’m saying its close between the re-birth of Thomas Vanek, the continued emergence of Claude Giroux and the play of Jimmy Howard. Yes, Jimmy Howard. I could play the goalie position if I was Pekka Rinne’s size – it’s called cheating.

I love this question and have asked it before: Only one, Anisimov or Stepan?

Good day to you my Rangers chums…………..

Brandon Prust’s Decreasing Role – A Good Thing

As has been said countless times on this site; when Ruslan Fedotenko – Brian Boyle – Brandon Prust is your fourth line, then you have the makings of a contender. Well, at least in Brandon Prust’s case, he is on his way if not already arrived at the fourth line. With such little ice time last night against the Isles (less than 6 minutes) and an ever-dwindling role on the team Prust is nowhere near as relevant as he was last year. However, that is a good thing and if anything just a sign that this team is developing and is deeper than it was the year previous.

Prust fans should not worry however. With less ice time comes less focus, but that doesn’t mean Prust isn’t a valuable player for the Rangers. He’s a heck of a gritty player and will go to war for his team and teammates and he’ll likely be a major factor again this season. But he needs to get healthy and Rangers fans need to realise it cannot be a good thing when the Prust’s of this world are getting 15 minutes a game like he was last year. The Rangers lacked the ability to hold on to the puck last year and part of the reason was the lack of skill on the ice.

Sean Avery has re-emerged, and based purely on the past two games (albeit against inferior opponents) Avery has a legitimate role on this team. Avery is still unique when he plays like he can. He has a healthy dose of skill, is an intelligent hockey player (at times), and is a pest who can bring a physical, relentless style to the game. If the Rangers can have both Avery and Prust firing on all cylinders this season, then my-o-my this team can go places.

Avery, Prust, Fedotenko, Ryan Callahan and even Brandon Dubinsky give this team a boat load of grittiness and effort. Brad Richards, Marian Gaborik, Derek Stepan, and Artem Anisimov bring the skill and finesse to the table. Combine the two and you have the makings of a perfect blend amongst the forward group.

In an ideal world, Prust (and his line) will get between 8-11 minutes per game and be a physical factor. They’ll harass the opposition and create space for the skilled lines to do their thing. Prust will chip in the odd goal, assist, fight and everything he does but it can only bode well when the top six are playing the important minutes because they are – and will be – the difference makers for this club.

Rangers Soaring – Reasons for Optimism

This streak is why Rangers fans have reason to be excited. The Rangers are getting better every game. They are doing the little things right and the confidence levels are only going one way; up. If the Rangers continue to play this way the next three games are all very winnable. All of a sudden we’re talking about a nine game winning streak and a huge dose of momentum to carry the team forward. A few thoughts after 15 games:

• Marian Gaborik probably won’t win the Hart or Richard trophies but if he carries on playing like he has thus far and the Rangers grab a top 5 spot I think he’s a Hart candidate. Early to say that I know but that’s the kind of level he’s playing at right now and he’s simply dominating games. He may not have scored last night but my word he was all over the ice. This is the Gaborik of ‘old’ and what the Rangers signed up for. E.L.I.T.E
• I’m often critical of Anisimov (only because he’s so talented) but he’s really maturing this season and looks a bona fide top 6 forward even if the sample size is so small. I said a while back that Stepan and Anisimov, in one regard, are fighting each other for prominent roles long term and they are really pushing each other to better and better performances. Both kids are looking good right now.
• Ryan McDonagh is a perfect example of what I said at the start of this post. Coupled with his huge talent and maturity is his growing confidence. The kid is going forward, looking to be involved at every opportunity. What excites the most is the fact his hockey intelligence is off the charts.
• Rangers D: everywhere you look (if you include Marc Staal) the Rangers are blessed with intelligence on the blueline. Girardi, Staal, Sauer, McDonagh; all four process the game very well and that is very exciting as they mature (and hopefully get better).
• Mike Rupp may regret the day he got injured. Based solely on last night’s game, where do you slot him in when he returns? Obviously the team will have slumps, losing streaks and loss of form but right now you wouldn’t change a thing and that could make Rupp an expensive spectator.
• If Boyle-Prust-Fedotenko can find the form (as a trio, not individually) of last year this team suddenly looks stacked.
• Did TSN really call Brad Richards a flop so far? Even if you base it purely on numbers he’s on course for close to 30 goals and 65+ points. That’s hardly a flop even if the numbers would be slightly down from previous years. Throw in the influence he’s clearly having on some of the younger players and it’s still nothing but a successful acquisition. If Richards hits his stride (obviously not in top form yet) and the Rangers keep him and Gaborik on separate lines, the Rangers have two elite players and two strong scoring lines. It’s funny how one addition can really help emphasise balance and depth.
• Read all the above and remember that next season you have Chris Kreider and many, many more close to or ready for the NHL…
• All of this and there was no need to boast about the best goaltending tandem in the league. Excited yet?