Musings Day; Devils, Sabres and Stags

It’s a musings day once again, and it’s the day after a game day. A Trip to Buffalo. Without further delay, let’s get into it. After all, I have a stag weekend to attend.

The Rangers loss to the Devils; there was still a lot to like. The way they conceded the tying goal hurts, but ask the Phoenix fans about Brad Richards’ game winner a few weeks back and it just shows that luck comes and goes.

The thing that most stood out for me in the Devils game was the amount of high quality chances the Rangers created/had. Credit Brodeur for making several top quality saves but it’s been a while since the Rangers had this many quality chances in one game. Again though it comes down to one thing: conversion.

It’s time to start worrying about Brad Richards. He had a few peaks and valleys through the season but he’s probably playing his worst hockey of the year at the moment. Some people suggest an injury but I’m not sure what to think. One thing is sure though, there’s not a single aspect of his game that’s firing right now. He needs to be better and quickly.

That stag weekend I’m attending? Anarchy is planned. Sunday night will be the peak; Cuban’s, whisky and Superbowl all in abundance. I’m the only Giants fan amongst Miami, Packers, Bears, Buccs and Chiefs fans. Luckily there is no Pats fan although I’m pretty confident my friends will be rooting for the Pats to spite me. And yes, there really is a Chiefs fan here in the UK.

Carl Hagelin has played 15 games less than Brandon Dubinsky this season and is only 3 points behind his considerably richer teammate.

You want an example of how Del Zotto is improving defensively this year? In the first period against the Sabres, his positional play on Kassian was excellent. He kept Kassian out of Lundqvist’s line of sight and allowed Lundqvist to see the shot all the way, making it an easy stop for the goalie. Subtle but solid play from Del Zotto.

How can the Rangers survive subpar seasons from the likes of Anisimov, Richards and Dubinsky? 13 different players have game winners for the Rangers this season. Clutch contributions all over the roster.

Someone had a great statistic on twitter during the All Star game: Marian Gaborik has scored on 8 of his last 17 shots on Henrik Lundqvist. Wow.

Derek Stepan is going through a period recently where he simply cannot get on the score sheet, much like Anisimov. The difference? Stepan is still making plays as evidenced by his great chance in the overtime period against the Devils. How often have you noticed Anisimov make such a notable offensive contribution (regardless of end result). You don’t. I’ve always worried about the influence Anisimov’s fragile confidence has on his game. When he’s on he looks like a potential star but when he’s off, well he’s almost a waste of a roster spot. If this poor stretch goes on much longer his Rangers career may be in threat.

Sometimes it’s the little things that tell you about a player. During the Devils game Ryan McDonagh got to the puck before a Devil to get the icing call. His body positioning was exceptional and there was no way the Devil was getting to the puck first despite coming in quick. McDonagh rarely makes mistakes, is a very heady player and simply put, is a revelation, although you already knew that.

It’s amazing the Rangers haven’t missed Mike Sauer more. Huge credit has to go to the team’s overall commitment to defense– the team wide mindset, as well as the blueline corps. One of the THN writers questioned this week whether this ‘inexperienced blueline’ can keep it going. I have no concerns especially when you factor in Marc Staal getting back to his best.

Mats Zuccarello had a 3 point game in the AHL All Star game. Just saying…..

NHL Skills Competition Participants

The NHL has announced the participants of the NHL Skills Competition, to take place tonight. The four Rangers participating will be in six events:

Marian Gaborik

• Skills Challenge Relay
• Elimination Shootout

Dan Girardi

• Shooting Accuracy (passer)

Carl Hagelin

• Fastest Skater (side note: he only loses if he blows a tire)
• Elimination Shootout

Henrik Lundqvist

• Elimination Shootout

The remaining contest listings can be found here.

Chad Johnson Returned To AHL, Hagelin To Play In Rookie Game

As expected, goaltender Chad Johnson was returned to the AHL immediately following last night’s 3-0 victory over the Winnipeg Jets. Johnson was called up to serve as the backup to Henrik Lundqvist. Martin Biron was supposed to start the game, but was scratched with the flu. With no games for the next week, it is likely that Biron will be healthy enough for action when games resume.

In other news, per Josh Rimer, Carl Hagelin is expected to be named to the Rookie Game as an injury replacement. Good to see the kid get rewarded for his play. He has succeeded exceeded everyone’s expectations, even those who watched him reguarly at Michigan.

Mid-Season Report Cards: Bottom Six Forwards

Today we are going to be talking about our unheralded, but no less vital bottom six forwards. Prior to Tortorella’s arrival, the Rangers bottom six was typically composed of too many wannabe skill players like Matt Cullen, Marcel Hossa, etc. The last few years we finally started to value players who understood that their role is to forecheck, backcheck, hit, score dirty goals, and protect their teammates.

Before we get started, let me just reiterate these grades are based on these respective players executing their specific roles within our team concept.

Brian Boyle: Boyle has much improved at faceoffs this season (51.5% vs. 48.5%) and it’s a big reason why the Hagelin-Boyle-Mitchell line was out possessing the opposition. He’s gotten some flak for his offense being down, but he’s pretty much doing everything defensively you could ask from a third line center. He forechecks, he blocks shots, and he doesn’t turn the puck over. I would like to see him lay people out a little more often given his size.

With that said, we are going to need more scoring from our bottom six in the second half and beyond. Boyle is on pace for 4 goals and 16 points, which is down from last season’s 21 goals and 35 points. Icetime isn’t much of an excuse as his avg. icetime last season was 15 mins and change. This season he is skating 14 mins and change. Essentially he’s playing one less shift per game. Grade: B-

Ruslan Fedotenko: Feds has been one of the most reliable trenchmen in the game for the past 10 years. Every season he gives you steady corner play, second chance efforts, and 30 points give or take. Most of his strengths are often overlooked because he’s not a puck carrier or a fighter, but he is a strategic insertion in this lineup and he executes Tortorella’s puck pursuit system to a T. The only reason I didn’t grade him higher was because he played on the second line for a while and didn’t do too much with it. Grade: B

Carl Hagelin: Hagelin is a bottom six player this season, but he won’t be next season. He may not even be a bottom sixer by the end of this season thanks to his explosiveness, escapeability, and positional awareness. As he’s gained more experience, he has also gained more trust from his coach, which is evident in the increase in situations he is being utilized.

The question really is what is this kid’s ceiling? It’s hard to know at this point, but what really impresses me about Hagelin’s game is that his puck handling keeps up with his foot speed. Rico Fata could skate like the wind too, but he had no hands.

Many will write that Hagelin is too small or that he needs to bulk up. To which I say, BS! How many times have you seen him get pancaked and lose the puck? Grade: A

John Mitchell: While many of Avery’s supporters blame his current status on Rupp and Erik Christensen, Mitchell too deserves culpability. Of course Mitchell deserves a spot on this roster over Avery, so you won’t hear any complaints from me.

Mitchell has been a possession monster for us, as he currently leads the team in relative corsi. He’s also been dynamite on the draw (FO 58.6%), he’s quick, and he plays gritty without taking dumb penalties. I’m not sure who scouted this guy in Toronto, but whoever it was deserves credit. Like a glove! Grade: B+

Read more »

A Look At The NYR GVT/PVT Leaders

With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.

*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>

Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:

Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT

Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.

Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.

As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.

Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.

Analysis of the forwards after the jump

Rangers/Panthers Recap

In a game that could have been easily overlooked in the wake of the Winter Classic on Monday, the Rangers took it to the Panthers 4-1 in their final tune-up before heading to Philly.  After a rocky outing against the Caps, the Rangers bounced back and played a very smart game and grabbed a little momentum to take to Citizens Bank Park.  Onto the bullets…

• The name of the game tonight for New York was the executing the little things.  For the most part, they got the puck deep, threw pucks at the net and created havoc in the offensive zone.  Defensively, they used the boards well, blocked shots and didn’t give allow the forecheck to lure the play into the middle of the ice.
• Scott Clemmensen had a rough game tonight, but the Rangers’ goals weren’t of the soft variety.  They made quite a few great first passes out of the defensive zone that lead to quality offensive chances.  Jose Theodore played much better in relief, but at that point the game was pretty well in hand.
• Another solid defensive showing for this overachieving blue line.   The defense did a great job keeping pucks to the outside and although Hank was somewhat busy, most of the shots came from bad angles. Stralman in particular had a strong game, and although Stu Bickel has been a bit of a punching bag since his call up, he has played incredibly smart, simple defense.  McDonagh does look a bit tired to me, but continues to play well.  If Staal can come back at some point in the near future, McD can get his minutes back to a reasonable level and should be better rested for the stretch run this season.
• For all the (deserved) praise the GAS line has gotten so far this season, the newly formed Hagelin-Richards-Callahan trio has been just as impressive.  They were the best line on the ice tonight and have been getting better with each game.  Hagelin has a tremendous hockey IQ and his speed has been a weapon since day 1.  Each one of these guys has a completely different skill set, but they play off each other incredibly well.
• Continuing the theme, Michael Del Zotto is probably playing the best stretch of hockey I’ve ever seen out of him.  He is making the simple plays and not overextending himself.  He is playing physical and jumping into the offense at the correct times/places.   His continued development will be huge going forward and he is clearly playing with a lot of confidence and Torts is rewarding him with ice time in a variety of situations.
• Brandon Dubinsky quietly has 5 points in his past 5 games.  I’m not sure I’m completely sold that he has fully turned his season around, but it’s a huge step in the right direction.  His goal tonight was a fantastic individual effort.
• Nice to see Richards play a solid game after a couple of rough outings.
• Henrik Lundqvist.  Best goalie on the planet.
• I’m not sure what was more entertaining to me tonight; the Panthers growl or Tort’s tie (it looked like an early 80’s couch).

After months of anticipation, HBO cameras and uniform drama, the Winter Classic is finally here.  Hopefully the Rangers can stay focused and play their game.  Wouldn’t we all love to see Glen Sather’s press-conference declaration become a reality?

Musings At Christmas

Its Thursday, it’s a musings day and a game day. It’s the beginning of a three game home stand against divisional rivals. Don’t get used to it with relocation coming though. Anyway, let’s get into it.

Something I tweeted last night: Dan Girardi has gone pointless in 9 games. The entire tweet was a joke but what it did was reinforce how some players really do go beyond stat lines. Girardi is a solid two way guy who is good for 30 points but there may be no defenseman in the entire league – given the circumstances in NY – that is currently more important to their team. Girardi does it all.

Quietly, several Rangers are near the league lead in statistical categories. Carl Hagelin is third in shorthanded goals, Mike Del Zotto is in the top ten for plus/minus, Gaborik is right in the mix for the Richard trophy (trailing Stamkos but just one goal) while Brad Richards is tied for third in the league in game winning goals. Then there’s a certain goalie. With goalies of at least 16 starts only Brian Elliot and Tim Thomas have better GAA’s and save percentages than Henrik Lundqvist. Vezina season?

Beginning tonight, the Rangers have the Islanders twice and Philly over the Xmas period. 3 wins would be huge and are a realistic target given the new found strength on home ice. If the Rangers can get up for those games like they did against the Devils it will be a great stretch. I’m not being greedy; all I want for Xmas is 3 wins this week.

Back to goaltending. Kudos to Tortorella for managing Lundqvist’s minutes perfectly this season. He’s on course to play ‘just’ 62 games this season, by far his least since 2005 – his rookie year. He’s been his most consistent this year and his usual dominant self. The extra breaks (and the presence of Biron) are the reasons why.

The league needs to sort out concussion issues quickly. With four new additions (including ex Ranger Al Montoya) the list of players out due to concussions now stands at over 30. That’s an awful figure. Great players such as Chris Pronger may never play again and Sid Crosby could be well on his way to being the new Eric Lindros – dominant and cut down in his prime by the head issue. The league needs to be tougher on head shots, change unnecessarily tough equipment such as elbow pads and generally show more willingness to solve a horrible trend.

After 19 goals last year, ex Ranger forward Lauri Korpikoski is headed towards 20 this year. The Rangers have handled player development (drafting, ice time, minor league development etc, etc) very well in general but I still think the Rangers gave up on Korpikoski a little too early.

Be honest, did you think the Rangers would be ahead of the Penguins at Christmas, with three games in hand?

Question Time:

• Will Gaborik hit 50 goals this season?
• Will Ryan Callahan hit 30 goals this season?
• How many regular season games will Marc Staal play in this season?
• How many current roster players will be ex Rangers before the season is out?
• Who do you think is the Rangers MVP after 31 games?

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As it’s the last Musings before Christmas on behalf of the Suit, Dave and myself, allow me to wish everyone a Happy Christmas, or if you don’t celebrate it, a wonderful holiday season. A skinny tie for you all

Shadow Looms Over Dubinsky

Unintentionally, as I wrote today’s posts it became apparent to me that it might seem like ‘Pick on Dubinsky’ day. That’s not meant to be the case at all. Potentially (key word) Dubinsky is the perfect complimentary player for this team; he fits the overall identity of this squad and is blessed with generous helpings of size, skill and usually, confidence. The problem is he’s never been consistent. If anything, this season he has gained a bad type of consistency – consistently not scoring.

Dubinsky is in grave danger of taking a seat soon. He’s not producing this year but not only does he need to get it going for the short term he may need to do so for the long term. Despite getting a generous new deal last summer there’s a chance that Dubinsky’s Ranger career is in jeopardy if this slump is prolonged.

Carl Hagelin jumped straight to the pros and looks like he’s very much a keeper at this level. His speed fits perfectly in the modern NHL and he’s an intelligent, hardworking and skilled player. Then there is a certain player – much anticipated – that has the potential to make Dubinsky redundant. Step forward Chris Kreider.

Kreider is having a terrific year for Boston College. He’s playing at a high level, leading his team offensively (23 points in 18 games, 12 goals, 3 game winners) and is physically NHL ready. Kreider, like Hagelin, has speed to burn and at 6’3 and 227 lbs has a big strong frame. Coupled with skill that’s being refined every game, Kreider could have the perfect combination for a dominant NHL forward. Basically, he may have more to offer than Dubinsky, especially if he can display consistency at the pro level.

Why should Dubinsky be worried? Tortorella has gone public with his appreciation of Hagelin’s skill set. Meanwhile the organisation publicly courted Kreider to turn pro last summer evidencing their desperation to get him in the NHL. Kreider will be in NY next summer and it won’t be to play 5 minutes a game. So, first of all Dubinsky has to be worried about the Rangers’ desire to develop the two young wingers but there is another reason Dubinsky’s role is under threat (barring a great second half to the season).

Dubinsky may have signed his own death warrant with his new contract. Should Hagelin continue his impressive start, should Kreider be ready for a top six role that the organisation want to give him then Dubinsky is making a lot of money to be a bottom six player and despite some cap space opening up in the summer the Rangers already have too much money invested in the bottom six. Especially when you consider new deals soon to be required for the likes of Prust, Del Zotto, Stepan and McDonagh.

Cap space always requires careful consideration and Dubinsky’s $4.2m cap hit is far too much for a role player. When you factor in Kreider’s cap hit likely to be a lot less than the fat deal Dubinsky’s contract carries – if the choice was a straight one or the other, it doesn’t look good for Dubi.

It’s not ‘pick on Dubinsky day’, but the posts today should really hit home the fact that Brandon Dubinsky may be approaching a serious cross road in his Rangers career. Let’s hope he finds his game because the deeper the Rangers are, the better Dubinsky is, the more likely this team becomes a contender.

With Slumping Offense Comes Change – Dubi?

Amid a scoring slump of sorts (2 games is hardly a crisis) Coach Tortorella once again swapped up his lines during the Blues game. On one occasion Carl Hagelin played opposite Marian Gaborik. With all the line changes comes speculation about the who, what, where and why’s.

Perhaps the main thing the Rangers didn’t do well against the Blues was stick to their own game. The team needs to get back to basics in the next game against Phoenix. The game against the Coyotes should signal a few changes as the Rangers need to get some snarl back and improve their overall effort. Examples may need to be made and the game should call for the inclusion of Sean Avery and Mike Rupp. There should be more ice time to Carl Hagelin whose sole mission should be to harass the puck carrier.

They need to throw the puck on net and crash the net as much as possible. What went on in St Louis was not nearly enough in regards to offense generated and the last two games have been the result of slipping play in recent games. The Rangers have had an up and down couple of weeks with some good and some bad performances.

Will Tortorella bench Brandon Dubinsky at some stage? Despite being a Dubinsky fan it’s a move I have called for, for a while. It’s becoming a serious issue. He’s well off his normal level of play and he needs a game out of the line up. While Dubinsky isn’t the only player underperforming (Brian Boyle, Fedotenko both come to mind for starters) he is the most critical element of what is going wrong.

The Rangers, especially right now, need Dubinsky to be better, much better. He’s an integral secondary scorer that simply isn’t scoring (the occasional assist doesn’t count). When the Gaborik line is being shut down so much pressure turns to Richards and Callahan to score as Fedotenko (on their line) has never been relied on for offense. So with no Dubinsky offense, the depth is tested.

It’s getting to the stage of the season where Dubinsky’s bad year threatens to undermine everything good about the year so far. His bad year threatens to adversely affect the great start to the season. He needs to be a factor going forward. I don’t buy into the apparent annual team slump around this time of year. It’s a different team with different players. What I do buy into is making changes to proactively impact players’ form. Let the players characterised by work effort and determination play. Get back to being a relentless fore-checking team and for that, at least right now, Dubi needs to sit.

Unpopular Decisions Need To Be Made

Sometimes the best decision is the unpopular decision. The Rangers have begun to play some sloppy hockey this past few games, getting away with one in Tampa then losing against the one line Leafs before allowing Tampa to gain revenge Thursday.

When the team trails in games, coach Tortorella often (as many coaches do) shortens his bench and rides his top guys as he presses to get back in the game. Whether a player deserves to lose his ice time or not he finds himself watching the top six get double shifted.

An unpopular decision needs to be made. I was the one who called for Carl Hagelin ahead of his call up and he made me look like a genius. Thanks Carl. I am now that same person expecting he gets demoted. This isn’t about Hagelin himself, who had a spectacular introduction to the NHL (for a so called defensive forward). This is about the lack of ice time he is beginning to receive, in part thanks to the Rangers’ play leveling off.

The past two games Hagelin has played less than 9 minutes in each culminating in less than 7 against Tampa. For a good prospect who has shown he can change a game with his speed (and intelligence) that is far from an ideal situation. If Tortorella will up his ice time, sure, keep him with the Rangers but long term it is certainly in the young Swedes’ interest to go back to Connecticut and play 19 minutes a game and get back to scoring consistently in that league.

Being sent down wouldn’t be an indictment on Hagelin, it’d be an acknowledgement that the Rangers need to sort their own collective play out and focus on waking up passengers such as Brandon ‘what’s a goal’ Dubinsky.

Hagelin being sent down in fact benefits numerous parties. The Whale get another potential game changer back in their line up who already looked like a difference maker at the AHL level. Hagelin gets quality ice time and can put himself forward more (significant) minutes in NY and the organisation doesn’t potentially retard the development of a highly promising prospect. Perhaps the only loser in the event of a demotion would be the NY fans who have fallen in love with Hagelin – quickly.

This shouldn’t be about popularity, this should be about winning and development: both of which might mean Hagelin should be in the minors. Don’t shoot the messenger.