The NHL has announced the participants of the NHL Skills Competition, to take place tonight. The four Rangers participating will be in six events:
Marian Gaborik
Dan Girardi
Carl Hagelin
Henrik Lundqvist
The remaining contest listings can be found here.
As expected, goaltender Chad Johnson was returned to the AHL immediately following last night’s 3-0 victory over the Winnipeg Jets. Johnson was called up to serve as the backup to Henrik Lundqvist. Martin Biron was supposed to start the game, but was scratched with the flu. With no games for the next week, it is likely that Biron will be healthy enough for action when games resume.
In other news, per Josh Rimer, Carl Hagelin is expected to be named to the Rookie Game as an injury replacement. Good to see the kid get rewarded for his play. He has succeeded exceeded everyone’s expectations, even those who watched him reguarly at Michigan.
Today we are going to be talking about our unheralded, but no less vital bottom six forwards. Prior to Tortorella’s arrival, the Rangers bottom six was typically composed of too many wannabe skill players like Matt Cullen, Marcel Hossa, etc. The last few years we finally started to value players who understood that their role is to forecheck, backcheck, hit, score dirty goals, and protect their teammates.
Before we get started, let me just reiterate these grades are based on these respective players executing their specific roles within our team concept.
Brian Boyle: Boyle has much improved at faceoffs this season (51.5% vs. 48.5%) and it’s a big reason why the Hagelin-Boyle-Mitchell line was out possessing the opposition. He’s gotten some flak for his offense being down, but he’s pretty much doing everything defensively you could ask from a third line center. He forechecks, he blocks shots, and he doesn’t turn the puck over. I would like to see him lay people out a little more often given his size.
With that said, we are going to need more scoring from our bottom six in the second half and beyond. Boyle is on pace for 4 goals and 16 points, which is down from last season’s 21 goals and 35 points. Icetime isn’t much of an excuse as his avg. icetime last season was 15 mins and change. This season he is skating 14 mins and change. Essentially he’s playing one less shift per game. Grade: B
Ruslan Fedotenko: Feds has been one of the most reliable trenchmen in the game for the past 10 years. Every season he gives you steady corner play, second chance efforts, and 30 points give or take. Most of his strengths are often overlooked because he’s not a puck carrier or a fighter, but he is a strategic insertion in this lineup and he executes Tortorella’s puck pursuit system to a T. The only reason I didn’t grade him higher was because he played on the second line for a while and did squat with it and he could stand to be more physical when playing in a bottom 6 role. Grade: B-
Carl Hagelin: Hagelin is a bottom six player this season, but he won’t be next season. He may not even be a bottom sixer by the end of this season thanks to his explosiveness, escapeability, and positional awareness. As he’s gained more experience, he has also gained more trust from his coach, which is evident in the increase in situations he is being utilized.
The question really is what is this kid’s ceiling? It’s hard to know at this point, but what really impresses me about Hagelin’s game is that his puck handling keeps up with his foot speed. Rico Fata could skate like the wind too, but he had no hands.
Many will write that Hagelin is too small or that he needs to bulk up. To which I say, BS! How many times have you seen him get pancaked and lose the puck? Grade: A
John Mitchell: While many of Avery’s supporters blame his current status on Rupp and Erik Christensen, Mitchell too deserves culpability. Of course Mitchell deserves a spot on this roster over Avery, so you won’t hear any complaints from me.
Mitchell has been a possession monster for us, as he currently leads the team in relative corsi. He’s also been dynamite on the draw (FO 58.6%), he’s quick, and he plays gritty without taking dumb penalties. I’m not sure who scouted this guy in Toronto, but whoever it was deserves credit. Like a glove! Grade: B+
With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.
*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>
Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:
Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT
| Rk | Player | GP | OGVT | DGVT | SGVT | GVT | PVT |
| 1 | Michael Del Zotto | 36 | 3.6 | 4 | 0 | 7.6 | 2.5 |
| 2 | Ryan McDonagh | 36 | 2.7 | 2 | 0 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 3 | Dan Girardi | 36 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | Anton Stralman | 13 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 5 | Jeff Woywitka | 26 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Stu Bickel | 6 | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 7 | Michael Sauer | 19 | 0 | 1.7 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 8 | Steve Eminger | 30 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 9 | Brendan Bell | 1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tim Erixon | 13 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.
Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.
As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.
Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.
In a game that could have been easily overlooked in the wake of the Winter Classic on Monday, the Rangers took it to the Panthers 4-1 in their final tune-up before heading to Philly. After a rocky outing against the Caps, the Rangers bounced back and played a very smart game and grabbed a little momentum to take to Citizens Bank Park. Onto the bullets…
After months of anticipation, HBO cameras and uniform drama, the Winter Classic is finally here. Hopefully the Rangers can stay focused and play their game. Wouldn’t we all love to see Glen Sather’s press-conference declaration become a reality?
Its Thursday, it’s a musings day and a game day. It’s the beginning of a three game home stand against divisional rivals. Don’t get used to it with relocation coming though. Anyway, let’s get into it.
Something I tweeted last night: Dan Girardi has gone pointless in 9 games. The entire tweet was a joke but what it did was reinforce how some players really do go beyond stat lines. Girardi is a solid two way guy who is good for 30 points but there may be no defenseman in the entire league – given the circumstances in NY – that is currently more important to their team. Girardi does it all.
Quietly, several Rangers are near the league lead in statistical categories. Carl Hagelin is third in shorthanded goals, Mike Del Zotto is in the top ten for plus/minus, Gaborik is right in the mix for the Richard trophy (trailing Stamkos but just one goal) while Brad Richards is tied for third in the league in game winning goals. Then there’s a certain goalie. With goalies of at least 16 starts only Brian Elliot and Tim Thomas have better GAA’s and save percentages than Henrik Lundqvist. Vezina season?
Beginning tonight, the Rangers have the Islanders twice and Philly over the Xmas period. 3 wins would be huge and are a realistic target given the new found strength on home ice. If the Rangers can get up for those games like they did against the Devils it will be a great stretch. I’m not being greedy; all I want for Xmas is 3 wins this week.
Back to goaltending. Kudos to Tortorella for managing Lundqvist’s minutes perfectly this season. He’s on course to play ‘just’ 62 games this season, by far his least since 2005 – his rookie year. He’s been his most consistent this year and his usual dominant self. The extra breaks (and the presence of Biron) are the reasons why.
The league needs to sort out concussion issues quickly. With four new additions (including ex Ranger Al Montoya) the list of players out due to concussions now stands at over 30. That’s an awful figure. Great players such as Chris Pronger may never play again and Sid Crosby could be well on his way to being the new Eric Lindros – dominant and cut down in his prime by the head issue. The league needs to be tougher on head shots, change unnecessarily tough equipment such as elbow pads and generally show more willingness to solve a horrible trend.
After 19 goals last year, ex Ranger forward Lauri Korpikoski is headed towards 20 this year. The Rangers have handled player development (drafting, ice time, minor league development etc, etc) very well in general but I still think the Rangers gave up on Korpikoski a little too early.
Be honest, did you think the Rangers would be ahead of the Penguins at Christmas, with three games in hand?
Question Time:
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As it’s the last Musings before Christmas on behalf of the Suit, Dave and myself, allow me to wish everyone a Happy Christmas, or if you don’t celebrate it, a wonderful holiday season. A skinny tie for you all
Unintentionally, as I wrote today’s posts it became apparent to me that it might seem like ‘Pick on Dubinsky’ day. That’s not meant to be the case at all. Potentially (key word) Dubinsky is the perfect complimentary player for this team; he fits the overall identity of this squad and is blessed with generous helpings of size, skill and usually, confidence. The problem is he’s never been consistent. If anything, this season he has gained a bad type of consistency – consistently not scoring.
Dubinsky is in grave danger of taking a seat soon. He’s not producing this year but not only does he need to get it going for the short term he may need to do so for the long term. Despite getting a generous new deal last summer there’s a chance that Dubinsky’s Ranger career is in jeopardy if this slump is prolonged.
Carl Hagelin jumped straight to the pros and looks like he’s very much a keeper at this level. His speed fits perfectly in the modern NHL and he’s an intelligent, hardworking and skilled player. Then there is a certain player – much anticipated – that has the potential to make Dubinsky redundant. Step forward Chris Kreider.
Kreider is having a terrific year for Boston College. He’s playing at a high level, leading his team offensively (23 points in 18 games, 12 goals, 3 game winners) and is physically NHL ready. Kreider, like Hagelin, has speed to burn and at 6’3 and 227 lbs has a big strong frame. Coupled with skill that’s being refined every game, Kreider could have the perfect combination for a dominant NHL forward. Basically, he may have more to offer than Dubinsky, especially if he can display consistency at the pro level.
Why should Dubinsky be worried? Tortorella has gone public with his appreciation of Hagelin’s skill set. Meanwhile the organisation publicly courted Kreider to turn pro last summer evidencing their desperation to get him in the NHL. Kreider will be in NY next summer and it won’t be to play 5 minutes a game. So, first of all Dubinsky has to be worried about the Rangers’ desire to develop the two young wingers but there is another reason Dubinsky’s role is under threat (barring a great second half to the season).
Dubinsky may have signed his own death warrant with his new contract. Should Hagelin continue his impressive start, should Kreider be ready for a top six role that the organisation want to give him then Dubinsky is making a lot of money to be a bottom six player and despite some cap space opening up in the summer the Rangers already have too much money invested in the bottom six. Especially when you consider new deals soon to be required for the likes of Prust, Del Zotto, Stepan and McDonagh.
Cap space always requires careful consideration and Dubinsky’s $4.2m cap hit is far too much for a role player. When you factor in Kreider’s cap hit likely to be a lot less than the fat deal Dubinsky’s contract carries – if the choice was a straight one or the other, it doesn’t look good for Dubi.
It’s not ‘pick on Dubinsky day’, but the posts today should really hit home the fact that Brandon Dubinsky may be approaching a serious cross road in his Rangers career. Let’s hope he finds his game because the deeper the Rangers are, the better Dubinsky is, the more likely this team becomes a contender.
Amid a scoring slump of sorts (2 games is hardly a crisis) Coach Tortorella once again swapped up his lines during the Blues game. On one occasion Carl Hagelin played opposite Marian Gaborik. With all the line changes comes speculation about the who, what, where and why’s.
Perhaps the main thing the Rangers didn’t do well against the Blues was stick to their own game. The team needs to get back to basics in the next game against Phoenix. The game against the Coyotes should signal a few changes as the Rangers need to get some snarl back and improve their overall effort. Examples may need to be made and the game should call for the inclusion of Sean Avery and Mike Rupp. There should be more ice time to Carl Hagelin whose sole mission should be to harass the puck carrier.
They need to throw the puck on net and crash the net as much as possible. What went on in St Louis was not nearly enough in regards to offense generated and the last two games have been the result of slipping play in recent games. The Rangers have had an up and down couple of weeks with some good and some bad performances.
Will Tortorella bench Brandon Dubinsky at some stage? Despite being a Dubinsky fan it’s a move I have called for, for a while. It’s becoming a serious issue. He’s well off his normal level of play and he needs a game out of the line up. While Dubinsky isn’t the only player underperforming (Brian Boyle, Fedotenko both come to mind for starters) he is the most critical element of what is going wrong.
The Rangers, especially right now, need Dubinsky to be better, much better. He’s an integral secondary scorer that simply isn’t scoring (the occasional assist doesn’t count). When the Gaborik line is being shut down so much pressure turns to Richards and Callahan to score as Fedotenko (on their line) has never been relied on for offense. So with no Dubinsky offense, the depth is tested.
It’s getting to the stage of the season where Dubinsky’s bad year threatens to undermine everything good about the year so far. His bad year threatens to adversely affect the great start to the season. He needs to be a factor going forward. I don’t buy into the apparent annual team slump around this time of year. It’s a different team with different players. What I do buy into is making changes to proactively impact players’ form. Let the players characterised by work effort and determination play. Get back to being a relentless fore-checking team and for that, at least right now, Dubi needs to sit.
Sometimes the best decision is the unpopular decision. The Rangers have begun to play some sloppy hockey this past few games, getting away with one in Tampa then losing against the one line Leafs before allowing Tampa to gain revenge Thursday.
When the team trails in games, coach Tortorella often (as many coaches do) shortens his bench and rides his top guys as he presses to get back in the game. Whether a player deserves to lose his ice time or not he finds himself watching the top six get double shifted.
An unpopular decision needs to be made. I was the one who called for Carl Hagelin ahead of his call up and he made me look like a genius. Thanks Carl. I am now that same person expecting he gets demoted. This isn’t about Hagelin himself, who had a spectacular introduction to the NHL (for a so called defensive forward). This is about the lack of ice time he is beginning to receive, in part thanks to the Rangers’ play leveling off.
The past two games Hagelin has played less than 9 minutes in each culminating in less than 7 against Tampa. For a good prospect who has shown he can change a game with his speed (and intelligence) that is far from an ideal situation. If Tortorella will up his ice time, sure, keep him with the Rangers but long term it is certainly in the young Swedes’ interest to go back to Connecticut and play 19 minutes a game and get back to scoring consistently in that league.
Being sent down wouldn’t be an indictment on Hagelin, it’d be an acknowledgement that the Rangers need to sort their own collective play out and focus on waking up passengers such as Brandon ‘what’s a goal’ Dubinsky.
Hagelin being sent down in fact benefits numerous parties. The Whale get another potential game changer back in their line up who already looked like a difference maker at the AHL level. Hagelin gets quality ice time and can put himself forward more (significant) minutes in NY and the organisation doesn’t potentially retard the development of a highly promising prospect. Perhaps the only loser in the event of a demotion would be the NY fans who have fallen in love with Hagelin – quickly.
This shouldn’t be about popularity, this should be about winning and development: both of which might mean Hagelin should be in the minors. Don’t shoot the messenger.
I feel pretty qualified (even from afar) to be able to pass judgement on how the Rangers have progressed over the first, now almost third, of the season. Why? Simple really. We all watch the games but I was there for games one and two in Sweden and I was there for arguably there two stiffest challenges to date against the Flyers and Penguins. In between there has been a lot of development if you ask me. So, without further delay let’s talk Rangers, but in stages. Today, we’ll discuss the kids on this team and how they have done.
What concerned me most prior to – and following – the two losses in Sweden was the depth in the defensive department and whether the lines – and personnel – could mesh in time after a completely disjointed preseason. Its one thing to beat middling European clubs (no disrespect) but it’s quite another to be ready for NHL play with a makeshift preparation.
I also had concerns about some of the young talent (legitimate talent) and whether they were ready or able to grab responsibility. Could this team get more scoring? Could this team compete with the more skilled teams in the league? Could this team progress to the next level?
To all the above concerns, they are concerns no more. I think we can all say with both hysteria and realism, that the Rangers have gone to a next level in their development, regardless of last night’s pretty ugly loss. The best part of it all is the results have been obvious on the eye. They have, as the title of this post suggests being tangible. So, what about the kids?
