ESPN’s Top 100 Players: Five Rangers In 20-100

John Buccigross at ESPN listed the top 100 players in the NHL. The highest ranked Rangers were Brad Richards (20), Marian Gaborik (26) and Henrik Lundqvist (27). Ryan Callahan came in at #61 and Dan Girardi came in at #91.

Marc Staal was the only Ranger that I think should have cracked this list.  Staal is one of the best defensive defensemen in the league and has made a career shutting down the league’s best. Obviously Buccigross kept prior seasons in mind when composing this list with some of these rankings.

NHL Skills Competition Participants

The NHL has announced the participants of the NHL Skills Competition, to take place tonight. The four Rangers participating will be in six events:

Marian Gaborik

• Skills Challenge Relay
• Elimination Shootout

Dan Girardi

• Shooting Accuracy (passer)

Carl Hagelin

• Fastest Skater (side note: he only loses if he blows a tire)
• Elimination Shootout

Henrik Lundqvist

• Elimination Shootout

The remaining contest listings can be found here.

The Prospect Quagmire

As the trade deadline approaches, no time is more fun to play armchair GM.  Its easy to swap underperforming players and picks like trading cards and instantly transform the team into a playoff power house.  This enjoyable little exercise usually leads to us giving a deeper examination to the value of prospects and roster players we could see being moved for a deadline upgrade.

Prospects were once traded with relative anonymity and by the time they blossomed into stars, we had probably forgotten what organization originally drafted them (I know I had long forgotten that Adam Graves was originally a Red Wings draft pick).  Today, we can follow the career of a young player from the junior hockey/college ranks, even some in prep school.  This type of access allows us, as fans, to form bonds with these players and the potential impact that they may have some day.  Just like children, everyone loves their own kids more than anyone else’s and this is an especially important concept come prime trading times.

Let me preface this by saying that I am tremendously excited for the future of the Rangers organization.  They have drafted and traded well over the past 5+ years and the system is starting to bear the fruit of that work.  There is serious prospect depth in the minors/juniors and we have seen homegrown stars in Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and Ryan Callahan come into their own right before our eyes.  Players like Brandon Dubinsky and Michael Del Zotto have found success at the NHL level and Carl Hagelin has made an immediate impact since his call up.  Also, we can’t leave out everyone’s favorite 7^th round draft pick, Henrik Lundqvist.

We all like to envision every member of the farm system representing another piece in an all homegrown Rangers Stanley Cup champion.  After all, young, cost-controlled players with upside are the best way to manage the cap and avoid the potential albatross deals that have been something of a blight on Glen Sather’s record.  From a practical standpoint however, one of the biggest benefits of a strong farm system is the ability to trade from an area of strength to shore up weaknesses on the big club.  As Dave has astutely pointed out in his Scouting the Deadline series, it is important to be able to accurately value these assets and make a business decision about whether to proceed with a given move.

What we all need to remember is that prospects are essentially lottery tickets.  We have all lived through our fair share of first round busts, and unfortunately the vast amount of players simply don’t live up to their ceiling.  Take Chris Krieder, for example.  Every scouting report I have ever read about him says his physical gifts are truly elite.  On the other hand, there are serious concerns about his hockey IQ and awareness/anticipation on the ice.  Now, this obviously isn’t to say he cannot succeed or be every bit as effective as his skills will allow him to be.  It’s just to say that he is not a known quantity at this point.  Depending on the other pieces, I wouldn’t be opposed to including him in a trade for someone like Bobby Ryan for instance.

As the deadline draws near, the Rangers’ are in somewhat of a precarious position.  Their window of contention is opening a little earlier than most expected, and it takes careful management not to overplay your hand and set your organizational development back.  Stripping down the farm system for an elite player could potentially be that final piece that brings Lord Stanley back to Broadway, or it could mean losing several key pieces that could help achieve the same result in 2-3 years.  This is the $64,000 question.

The ability to follow our teams prospects from the amateur ranks to The Show has added a new layer to hockey fandom.  It helps give up a more three-dimensional look at the management of the organization and it’s a lot of fun to see where the next crop of great Rangers is going to come from.  When it comes to evaluating moves or non-moves made this deadline season, it’s important not to hug prospects too tightly and look rather at the whether the move is good asset management and will help the team deliver its goal of raising the Stanley Cup in the very near future.

Should Girardi Garner Norris Trophy Consideration?

Any one that saw highlights (or the full game) in Boston would have seen Dan Girardi play a brilliant game all-round. It’s not a shock anymore, however, as Girardi makes his way through a brilliant season individually. However, can a defensive defenseman really garner Norris Trophy consideration? Is Girardi a sexy enough brand name, are the points missing from the resume?

If All Star voting was any indication of Girardi’s league wide respect then it doesn’t bode well for the rock on the Rangers blue line but if the numbers get stripped down, the whole picture looked at and the realisation of just how essential Girardi has been to the Rangers is seen, then Girardi deserves real consideration.

Look beyond the 27+ minutes per game that Girardi gets. Look past the 30 point season that he is on course for (which compared to the usual Norris candidates is a paltry sum). Forget about Girardi being a league leader in both hits and blocked shots. However put it all together and you have a player that excels in almost everything he turns his hand to. Girardi is a good decision maker, is constantly up against the league’s best offensive stars (and usually wins) and yet he still manages to be a legitimate option offensively.

What perhaps goes unnoticed about Girardi is the unreal 8 penalty minutes he has been assessed this season. When you play a physical game like he does and play the minutes he does then 8 penalty minutes is an astounding figure. It is testament to Girardi’s positioning, the aforementioned decision making and technique that he is such a fair player. Lady Byng anyone?

When all is said and done the Norris trophy will be decided between the usual candidates like Shea Weber, Zdeno Chara and Nicklas Lidstrom but let’s hope Girardi gets a mention. A player like Girardi is rarely in the spotlight around the league, yet is one of the key reasons the Rangers are one of the best teams in the NHL this season despite injuries mounting and travel being a burden. Here’s hoping the underappreciated get some love.

Lundqvist, Gaborik, Girardi Join Tortorella In All Star Game

The NHL announced the rest of the rosters for the 2012 All Star Game, and joining John Tortorella for the festivities over the January 28-29 weekend will be Henrik Lundqvist, Marian Gaborik, and Dan Girardi. Lundqvist and Gaborik were the shoe-ins, with Gaborik among the league leaders in scoring (23-11-34 in 40 GP) and Lundqvist leading the Vezina race (1.85 GAA, .940 SV%, 3 SO).

That  brings us to Girardi, who garnered a lot of attention when Tortorella ripped the fan ballot, as Girardi’s name was not on the ballot initially. The fan write-in campaign fell short, but never fear, the selection process was fair and Girardi was elected to the All Star Game, and deservedly so. Girardi does not have the flashy numbers, nor does he have the big game physical presence that others bring.

No, instead Girardi led the young Rangers blue line that was without Marc Staal and Mike Sauer for extended periods. Girardi became the rock on the blue line that the Rangers needed during that time period, and helped lead them to an NHL best 27-9-4 record through the first half of the season.

Girardi’s selection means that Michael Del Zotto, having an All Star caliber season himself, was left off the roster. It’s tough to call Del Zotto’s omission a snub, considering the rest of the All Star’s selected.

Overall, the selection process was pretty fair when looking at the rosters, but there will always be people that have issues with it.

Halfway There Report Card: The Defense

With the halfway point of the season upon us (for the most part), and the Rangers in first place, it’s as good of a time as any to begin with the mid-point report cards. We are going to do these in a series of posts, with Chris covering the top six forwards, Suit covering the bottom six forwards, Justin covering the goalies, and myself covering the defense.

The Rangers have used a whopping 11 defensemen since the season started. This is mostly due to the Marc Staal injury, but other injuries along the way have forced the Rangers’ hand. Despite the obvious disadvantage, the Rangers have allowed just 82 goals against, good for second in the league. The Bruins top this, but let’s be honest: The Bruins are in a class above everyone else right now.  Let’s get to those grades:

Marc Staal: He’s played just a handful of games. Everyone knows he’s the rock on defense, and the Rangers just upgraded tremendously with him coming back. Grade: INC.

Dan Girardi: With Staal out indefinitely, the blue line was put in Girardi’s hands…and boy did he deliver. Girardi has been flawless in his own end. He plays the most minutes in the entire league, he plays against top competition, he consistently shuts down that top opposition, he has been contributing offensively, and he has been a leader for this young Rangers team. Grade: A+.

Ryan McDonagh: Staal’s injury opened up a spot for McDonagh on the top pairing, and he has been sensational in that role. He and Girardi have clicked, and aside from a few poor games, McDonagh has been a monster. Rick Carpiniello of LoHud calls him McMonster, and that’s exactly what he is. Throw in his growing offensive skills, and this sophomore defenseman has been a tremendous pickup. Thank you Mr. Gomez. Grade: A.

Michael Del Zotto: Another player that was forced to play up a pairing due to injury, Del Zotto has also been phenomenal. He leads the defensemen in scoring, and is fifth on the team in that same category with 23 points (5-18-23). He leads the team in assists, plus/minus, fan girls, and haters. Seriously, what else does this kid need to do? Sure, he makes a bad pass every now and then, but he’s 22 years old. I’ll take this from a 22 year old any day. Grade: A.

Mike Sauer: Currently out with a concussion, Sauer was the rock on the blue line that most thought was the reason for Del Zotto’s re-emergence.  Although Del Zotto has succeeded without Sauer in the lineup, Sauer is still an integral part of the Rangers blue line. He doesn’t put up the fancy numbers that Del Zotto does, he doesn’t garner the All Star consideration that Girardi does, but he just does his job. The best thing you can say about a defensive defenseman is that you don’t notice him, and rarely does Sauer go noticed. Grade: A.

Steve Eminger: Eminger had an atrocious start to the year. He just couldn’t do anything right, and was a bit of a whipping boy ’round these parts. However, when Sauer went down with his concussion, Emmy stepped up. Much like last year with the Michal Rozsival injury, Eminger assumed top four minutes and played like a champ. His start hurts his grade, but he gets significant bonus points for his ability to play up to his role, no matter what. His injury was supposed to be the one that crippled the Rangers, who were already without Staal and Sauer, but it didn’t. Grade: B.

Jeff Woywitka:Serviceable, reliable, tough, and surprisingly reliable. Much like Eminger, Woywitka was a whipping boy here after his poor start to the season. However, unlike Eminger, he played better as he got used to the John Tortorella way of life, and has been a great bottom pairing guy since. Maybe he has received too much ice time because of injuries, but the Rangers sure haven’t noticed. Kudos to Woywitka for persevering, and earning his continued stay with the Blueshirts. Grade: B.

Anton Stralman: Signed as a free agent a few weeks into the season, no one knew what to expect from Stalman. After a few weeks with the team, it was clear that Tortorella wasn’t a big fan, a point confirmed on HBO’s 24/7 last week. However as he has played, he has grown into a player that is not only reliable, but someone that Tortorella can play top-four minutes without hesitation. Stralman has been paired with Del Zotto, and both have flourished. Martin Biron might be the best offseason acquisition in a while, but the signing of Stralman might be the most underappreciated. Grade: A-.

Stu Bickel: The last man cut from the blue line in the preseason, Bickel earned a call up following Eminger’s separated shoulder and Woywitka’s bruised foot forced the Rangers’ hand. Bickel has been a physical presence on the blue line that has rarely made a mistake. He’s still a rookie, and yes his mistakes have and will come, but the Rangers couldn’t have asked for more from him. With Sauer out, Bickel has replaced that physicality that was sorely missing. Grade: B+.

Tim Erixon: He played in the beginning of the year when Sauer was out, and most recently while Woywitka was out. It’s clear he’s still not ready for the big show, but he’s a promising young defenseman that has done many things right. He’s only played 13 games, but it’s apparent the Rangers have a serious NHL player on their hands. Grade: INC.

Brendan Bell: Played one game. Grade: INC.

*Here is Justin’s mid-season report for the goalies & Suit’s report for our bottom six forwards. Stay tuned for reports on our top 6 forwards and our coaches.

Changes Are Coming On The Blue Line

Not sure if you guys caught this, but Marc Staal returned to the lineup in dramatic fashion, just in time for the Winter Classic. Again, if you missed this, I don’t blame you, the news was sort of buried amidst the other Winter Classic hooplah.

All kidding aside, Staal’s return marked the 11th defenseman the Rangers have used this season. Stepping back, it really is remarkable how they are this good despite playing everyone except my mother on defense this season.

With Staal back in the lineup, the obvious scratch choice was Jeff Woywitka, and as expected, he was scratched for the Winter Classic. Woywitka, claimed off waivers, was essentially an insurance policy and a body to dress for games. In all fairness, he exceeded expectations and was extremely serviceable. He came in, adjusted to the new system, and played some steady third line minutes…with some hiccups of course.

Now with Mike Sauer looking like he is on the path to return –he skated with the team– the Rangers are going to need to find a place to insert him when he returns. The only realistic options for replacement are Anton Stralman and Stu Bickel, as none of Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, or Michael Del Zotto will be sitting any time soon.

Considering the current pairings, it is my guess that Bickel will be the one who sits for Sauer, when he returns. It’s nothing against the kid, who has played very well (again with some hiccups) in his call up, it’s just a numbers game. It makes more sense for Bickel to be returned to the AHL and get significant ice time than for him to sit around as the healthy scratch for weeks at a time. It is for that same reason that I expect Woywitka to stick around for a long time, at least until Steve Eminger heals.

The decisions about scratches and replacements are easy decisions. The decisions for defensive pairings however is a very tough choice. Does John Tortorella go back to his bread-and-butter pairing of Staal-Girardi? Does he leave Girardi with McDonagh and put Staal with Sauer? Does Del Zotto get matched back up with Sauer, leaving Staal to play with Stralman? These are questions that can only be answered by the coaching staff and by the players’ performance on the ice.

Personally, I would go back to ole reliable: Staal/Girardi, McDonagh/Sauer, MDZ/Stralman. That gives the Rangers two legitimate shut down pairings that also have some offensive upside, plus the surprisingly strong pairing of MDZ/Stralman to give the top four much needed rest. That leaves Eminger as the odd man out, but you would have to assume Stralman and Eminger would be rotating. Assuming those three pairings play the way that is expected and the way that they have all year, the Rangers have one of the deepest blue lines in the league.

The Rangers haven’t played a single game this season with a full strength blue line, yet they remain in first place in the conference. The Times They Are a-Changin’.

A Look At The NYR GVT/PVT Leaders

With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.

*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>

Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:

Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT

Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.

Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.

As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.

Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.

Analysis of the forwards after the jump

Just Like Dan?

Remember when Dan Girardi was an unheralded, undrafted, free agent nobody? Remember when he was playing ECHL hockey, then got an unnoticed promotion to the AHL and then an unlikely shot at the NHL? Yeah, that worked out pretty well for Mr Girardi didn’t it? Hope you’re enjoying that multimillion dollar contract Dan.

They’re don’t play the same position, aren’t the same stature, didn’t play in the same junior league and are at different stages of their careers but there’s some kind of potential parallel between Dan Girardi and the wonderfully named Jonathan Audy-Marchessault, aka JAM.

This season, in relative obscurity amid the Rangers impressive season, there is a little forward making waves in the AHL for the CT Whale who may be on his way to earning a shot at the NHL if he keeps his recent play going. Jonathan Audy-Marchessault has been an offensive surprise for the Whale this season – to the tune of 25 points in 29 games (good for the club lead) – and is getting better game by game.

Consider the AHL rookie, undrafted like Dan Girardi, began his first pro season scoreless in his five games as he got his feet wet and JAM is a point/game player for the majority of his first pro year. Impressive stuff. All this leads to the question of NHL/Rangers potential. Can eventually he make the jump?

Good friend of the blog, Brian Ring of the CT Whale, has seen JAM a lot this season. So what does Brian think of JAM, now and in the future?

I think the Girardi comparison is fair, as you’ve already noted they play different positions and are obviously of different build. They both, however, were maybe a bit overlooked before joining the professional ranks.

Audy-Marchessault has had an immediate impact on the Connecticut Whale, and as of this writing, he leads the team in scoring with 28 points on the season (10-18-28) in 31 games. With the call-ups to Hagelin and Mitchell, he has been getting the majority of his ice time on the top line with Kris Newbury and Andre Deveaux, who have also served as the primary power-play unit.

He couldn’t have landed in a better spot to debut as a professional, playing with former Quebec Remparts teammates Kelsey Tessier and Ryan Bourque. Tessier, a bilingual, not only helps JAM with his English but as a second-year pro knows the ropes as far as playing in the AHL and living in the Hartford area. Bourque is also surely a comfort as they go through the transition to the professional ranks together.

In his first extended time away from home, Audy-Marchessault has excelled and obviously adjusted quite well. He had his break-out game during a home-and-home set with one of the Whale’s most bitter rivals, the Springfield Falcons, on Oct. 22-23. He netted his first pro goal at Springfield, a third period equalizer, before tallying three points (1-2-3) the next night against the Falcons. The Whale won both games.

Since then, he’s been one of the most consistent Whale forwards, tallying 13 points in 11 November games and 10 points in 11 December games (two remain). He is third among rookie scorers in the AHL, eight points behind Norfolk’s Cory Conacher for the lead.

I don’t think there’s much question of whether or not he will make the jump to the next level or not. The ability and desire is certainly there and his tools are great, size hasn’t been an issue as he has withstood the punishment of nearly a half season without a problem. P.A. Parenteau has a size advantage over JAM, however Audy-Marchessault reminds me of him quite a bit. Look for him to add size and strength over the coming months as he continues to hone his professional game.

Following his quick rise to becoming a player relied upon for offense on a strong AHL club it seems JAM has a lot of potential and a promising future. It seems the Ranger scouting and player development may have found another gem.

Big thanks to Brian Ring for his contribution. For more updates on both JAM’s progress and the club as a whole be sure to check the Whale’s website as well twitter for as great insights from Brian and the Whale .

Stralman’s Short Stay

One of the more underrated aspects of the Rangers recent impressive stretch is Anton Stralman stepping up and playing solidly on the second pair. Increased minutes (17/game), sound defense (+9 rating) and a decent offensive game (5 assists in just 12 games); Stralman has helped ease the Rangers through a torrid stretch of injuries on their blue line. However, we probably shouldn’t get used to Stralman patrolling the Rangers blue line.

There’s a very good chance Stralman is auditioning for the rest of the NHL. The Rangers are pretty stacked on the blue line. With Marc Staal and Mike Sauer set to return and with Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh and Mike Del Zotto all core pieces of the blue line going forward there’s only really one spot left to fight over on the blue line with lots of candidates aiming for that spot six.

The also-impressive (surprising) Stu Bickel, Dylan McIlrath and Tim Erixon will all also be in the mix for the final spot next season. Steve Eminger and Jeff Woywitka (at this point in time) may also be considered, especially Eminger. Hopefully with Erixon getting big minutes in CT, he’ll be ready for a full time NHL role next season making competition at camp intense.

Stralman could be a viable candidate from the Rangers point of view. As we’ve said, he’s proven he can handle minutes and make plays at both ends of the ice but the main reason he’s probably not a realistic option for next year is price. The better Stralman plays, the higher his price will be. He may command double his current 900k on the open market. He may command more. Warped theory suggests that the Rangers want to hope they can’t afford him next year because it’ll mean he’s played well enough to command a raise.

The thing is, while the actual $$/sum for Stralman may not be prohibitive the Rangers likely won’t want to invest too much more money in the defensive part of the roster, especially with new deals (AKA raises) on the horizon for Del Zotto and McDonagh. With significant salaries already tied into Staal and Girardi, and the aforementioned raises on the blue line due, the more realistic options are a cheap contract like Eminger or a prospect like Bickel.

The best case scenario for Rangers fans is Stralman plays out an impressive season and earns himself a good contract in the NHL; maybe with the Rangers, probably not. Here’s hoping both the Rangers and the fans enjoy this very public audition. It’s in everyone’s interests it keeps going well.