Rangers Soaring – Reasons for Optimism

This streak is why Rangers fans have reason to be excited. The Rangers are getting better every game. They are doing the little things right and the confidence levels are only going one way; up. If the Rangers continue to play this way the next three games are all very winnable. All of a sudden we’re talking about a nine game winning streak and a huge dose of momentum to carry the team forward. A few thoughts after 15 games:

• Marian Gaborik probably won’t win the Hart or Richard trophies but if he carries on playing like he has thus far and the Rangers grab a top 5 spot I think he’s a Hart candidate. Early to say that I know but that’s the kind of level he’s playing at right now and he’s simply dominating games. He may not have scored last night but my word he was all over the ice. This is the Gaborik of ‘old’ and what the Rangers signed up for. E.L.I.T.E
• I’m often critical of Anisimov (only because he’s so talented) but he’s really maturing this season and looks a bona fide top 6 forward even if the sample size is so small. I said a while back that Stepan and Anisimov, in one regard, are fighting each other for prominent roles long term and they are really pushing each other to better and better performances. Both kids are looking good right now.
• Ryan McDonagh is a perfect example of what I said at the start of this post. Coupled with his huge talent and maturity is his growing confidence. The kid is going forward, looking to be involved at every opportunity. What excites the most is the fact his hockey intelligence is off the charts.
• Rangers D: everywhere you look (if you include Marc Staal) the Rangers are blessed with intelligence on the blueline. Girardi, Staal, Sauer, McDonagh; all four process the game very well and that is very exciting as they mature (and hopefully get better).
• Mike Rupp may regret the day he got injured. Based solely on last night’s game, where do you slot him in when he returns? Obviously the team will have slumps, losing streaks and loss of form but right now you wouldn’t change a thing and that could make Rupp an expensive spectator.
• If Boyle-Prust-Fedotenko can find the form (as a trio, not individually) of last year this team suddenly looks stacked.
• Did TSN really call Brad Richards a flop so far? Even if you base it purely on numbers he’s on course for close to 30 goals and 65+ points. That’s hardly a flop even if the numbers would be slightly down from previous years. Throw in the influence he’s clearly having on some of the younger players and it’s still nothing but a successful acquisition. If Richards hits his stride (obviously not in top form yet) and the Rangers keep him and Gaborik on separate lines, the Rangers have two elite players and two strong scoring lines. It’s funny how one addition can really help emphasise balance and depth.
• Read all the above and remember that next season you have Chris Kreider and many, many more close to or ready for the NHL…
• All of this and there was no need to boast about the best goaltending tandem in the league. Excited yet?

Girardi Not On All Star Ballot; Time For A Write-In Campaign

When the All Star ballots for this year were released, there were four Rangers on the ballot: Henrik Lundqvist, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and Marc Staal. Lundqvist, Richards, and Gaborik were expected to be on the ballot, but Staal hasn’t played a single game this year. It is just another flaw in the All Star balloting, as the Rangers best defenseman thus far, Dan Girardi, is not on the ballot. That’s where the write-ins come in handy.

Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers blog has started a write-in campaign for Girardi, who surely deserves All Star considerations this year. Girardi is fifth on the team in scoring (2-5-7), tops in ice time (pushing 30 minutes a game), gets the most difficult defensive assignments, is second on the team in hits (30), leads the team in blocked shots (37), and is fifth on the team in +/- (+5). Simply put, Dan Girardi is the most important Ranger on this team who does not play goalie.

Girardi deserves to be in the All Star Game, case closed. You can either go to the voting website here or text Girardi’s name to 81812 (standard rates apply).

Dan Girardi Can’t Keep Playing 30 Minutes

Dan Girardi is playing 30 minutes a game, or close to it. Simply put, that cannot continue. We say it twice last night, and a few additional times last week, where Girardi would get a minor injury, miss a shift or two, and then come back. During those two shifts when he wasn’t out, many fans would hold their collective breaths, hoping and praying that Girardi wasn’t seriously hurt. Injuries happen, but exhaustion happens too, and having an ineffective Dan Girardi would cripple this club.

With Marc Staal out, Girardi has assumed control as the number one defenseman on this club, and he has done everything asked, and then some. The “and then some” there is in reference to him playing almost half the game on any given night. As well conditioned as he may be, fatigue becomes an issue at some point.

Right now, the Michael Connection (Sauer/Del Zotto) gets between 20-25 minutes per game, with Ryan McDonagh receiving about 27 minutes, and Girardi getting 30 minutes. Jeff Woywitka and Steve Eminger get eight minutes per game. I’m going to repeat that: Woywitka and Eminger get EIGHT minutes per game.

As we’ve grown used to coach John Tortorella’s usage of his workhorses, we have grown used to his alienating his bottom players. It’s a strategy that suited him well for his Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning team, so it’s tough to argue with it. That said, there is a fatigue factor for Girardi. Very few players in this league are capable of playing 30 minutes a game. That number becomes far less when you eliminate all goalies from that list. I can only think of two players that can pull that off actually.

At what point does Girardi hit a wall? At what point does some nagging pain become an issue because of his fatigue? This is the road the Rangers may be heading down, especially considering how many shots Girardi blocks. It’s why a boxer gets so tired: taking abuse like that wears you out. Girardi is not going to ever complain, in fact he’s quoted saying that he doesn’t even notice the minutes he’s playing. Girardi is the consummate “do what it takes” player, and he’s the type of guy that guys go to war with. He doesn’t say much, but he doesn’t need to.

Of course, he can’t do much of that leading if he can’t move his legs because they feel like jelly. The third pairing of Woywitka-Eminger isn’t a pair that screams confidence, but giving them a few extra shifts couldn’t hurt. Two extra shifts for them at even strength gives them ten minutes per game, but more importantly puts Girardi under 30 minutes. It may not be ideal, considering Steve Eminger’s struggles, but it might be worth it in the long run. Girardi is now the most important Ranger suiting up nightly.

How Much Would You Pay Ryan McDonagh?

Usually anything written about Ryan McDonagh should begin with a big, passionate thank you to Bob Gainey but not this time as we’re past that (thanks Bob). We’re at the point now where McDonagh is becoming an integral part of the Rangers line-up, so much so that well ahead of schedule it’s a legitimate point in time to begin to discuss what McDonagh will be worth to the Rangers.

McDonagh is making a paltry (in comparison to his development) $875k this year and the same amount next season; he’s only eligible to become a restricted free agent prior to the 2013/14 season. McDonagh is also picking up a $425k bonus this season – well deserved thus far you’ll no doubt agree.

When it comes to the point where the Rangers begin to discuss terms with the talented blueliner, assuming the former Wisconsin badger continues his development, it’s going to cost the Rangers a fair bit of dollar. Do the Rangers overpay to get his name on a long term contract or do they use the restricted status to their cap advantage? It may be in their interests to get his name on a longer deal as soon as they can.

The next couple of years could be an expensive time on the blueline for the Rangers so it’s a good thing they have depth on the blue line in the organisation (allowing someone to be traded to make space for new deals). If Del Zotto completes his turn around this year and becomes an integral part of the top 6 his new deal won’t be cheap (after the 2012 season) while Mike Sauer’s latest deal expires at the same time as McDonagh. Meanwhile, Marc Staal and Girardi combine for over 7m in cap commitments. Girardi seems the prime candidate to be the victim of any cap management despite becoming a crucial part of the Rangers.

All Ryan McDonagh has done this year is become a force. He’s still learning and still makes some mistakes but he’s providing offense, doing his thing on the back end in an accomplished manner while doing it all with the composure and demeanour of a veteran way beyond his experience level. With 3 goals, 5 points and a huge amount of ice time this season, McDonagh has made the bitter pill of losing Marc Staal easier to swallow. So how much would you pay him? Would you get him under contract sooner rather than later?

Power Play Comes Through – Rangers Beat Jets

The Rangers won 2-1 in Winnipeg last night in a game that can best be described dull. At this stage of the season however, all that matters to the Rangers is that they left the MTS Arena with 2 points to make their Western Canadian trip a highly successful one. All in all as the Rangers head home, despite playing inconsistent error prone hockey to begin the year they will be more than happy to be 3-2-2. Let’s get to some game thoughts.

• 2 Power Play goals. Really? The first goal came from some sustained pressure on the power play after which Girardi and Del Zotto moved the puck before Fedotenko redirected a Girardi shot. It wasn’t complicated or beautiful hockey but hockey basics. The second PP goal was the kind of lucky break you need (off the skate and in) but the Rangers managed to get good entry to the zone and that’s what happens if you can get behind the defense.
• Mike Del Zotto had a good game. He looked more confident, wanted the puck on his stick and it looks like he’s really turning his game round with each and every game. Would have played this much if everyone was healthy? No, but his game is profiting from all the ice time. A +4 on the season is a long way from those rookie days.
• The Rangers looked solid in the second period, created a few chances and finally had some sustained pressure in the offensive zone. The pressure resulted in Claude Noel needing to take a time out for the Jets.
• Marian Gaborik was shut down in this game. No shots, little going for him. This is the kind of game when your depth has to come through when your star players can’t get it done. Thankfully the depth came through tonight.
• Callahan: Better. Dubinsky: wasn’t. Richards: invisible.
• The Rangers realise you have to shoot and get shots on net to win games, right? They will not win many games when they only have 17 shots on net like last night.  In the 7 games thus far the Rangers have recorded less than 20 shots in 4 of 7 games; that’s pathetic. Amazingly they are 2-1-1 in those games.
• Penalties: the Rangers were better disciplined last night. I had to check the box score a few times because I couldn’t believe the Rangers only took one penalty aside from the Prust fight. Stay out of the box and you win games.
• If this game wasn’t further evidence that the Rangers have the best goaltending combination in the game I don’t know what is. Biron played well, stepped in and the Rangers didn’t skip a beat. He was solid all night and I thought he was helpless on Antropov’s goal.
• Is it me or does Antropov always play well against the Rangers?
• Dan Girardi is playing on another level right now even if I thought he could have cleared the zone before the Jets’ goal.

A Look At The Defense’s Quality Of Competition

When the Rangers lost Marc Staal and Mike Sauer, they lost more than two of their top four defensemen. They lost two of their most physical defensemen and two guys that have been relied upon for many games to neutralize the opposition’s top lines. They are out, and others are looked at to fill those gaping holes on defense. Although it is very tough to quantify how the Rangers will look when Staal and Sauer come back, we can look at who the workhorses are, and who is lining up against top quality –or bottom of the barrel– opponents.

Let’s state the obvious: Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh are the workhorses, and they are facing off against the opposition’s top lines night in and night out. They will be doing so for the foreseeable future too, as there does not appear to be any timetable for Staal and Sauer’s return. Using the eye test, it’s easy to say that Michael Del Zotto has been one of the Rangers better defenders as well, and to an extent he has been. But that’s why we have stats like QUALCOMP that measure the quality of competition that each player is facing.

A brief description of QUALCOMP, it is a positive or negative number, and the higher it is, the better competition a player is facing. Let’s look at the table below through the Rangers first three games:

To sum up the table, the players facing the top quality competition are the ones you’d expect in McDonagh and Girardi. After that, it’s interesting to see that Tim Erixon is the player that coach John Tortorella seems to rely on the most when it comes to difficult opponents. The fact that they are the only three with positive QUALCOMP shows how much trust the coach has in them, and how his trust wavers with some of his other options.

Yes, Michael Del Zotto has been pretty good on defense this year, but he is way at the bottom of the QUALCOMP rankings. In fact, Del Zotto is at the very bottom in QUALCOMP for the entire league (excluding Sauer, who is injured). This is, of course, a very small sample size (just three games), and these numbers are likely to change dramatically as there is more of a regression to the mean (or progression to the mean for those slow out of the gate).

While those numbers themselves may change dramatically, the place where each defenseman resides on the list is likely to remain unchanged. It is widely known that with Staal and Sauer out, McDonagh and Girardi will be the top dogs on the blue line. What is troubling is that the Rangers have one defenseman that they are “breaking in” (Del Zotto), and another veteran –one that they relied on heavily last year– that are in the negatives with their QUALCOMP.

We do fall victim to small sample sizes here, as Jeff Woywitka has only played one game, and Steve Eminger took about 10-15 games last year to hit his stride and become that reliable defenseman that helped the Rangers through their injuries last season.  That said, trends will likely continue though, so expect to see Del Zotto facing off against lesser quality opponents, and expect the bulk of the heavy duty work to go to McDonagh and Girardi.

The positive to take out of this is that Tim Erixon has been facing some decent competition, better than both Eminger and Woywitka. He has been up to the task thus far. Although the number may change, he will still be considered to be a “second pairing” guy when it comes to the quality he is facing.

The Many Effects of Mike Sauer

With the multiple injuries occurring on defense recently it goes without saying the Rangers will have been relieved that Mike Sauer didn’t sustain a serious knock in the Flyers game. It also points out the meteoric rise that Sauer has undergone in less than twelve months. It’s not a surprise – he always had impressive talent – but it is meteoric when you consider Sauer’s career looked to have stalled until last season given all the injuries that stopped him from rising through the organisation quicker.

Mike Sauer is giving the Rangers a healthy problem while at the same time allowing the Rangers to develop other prospects more patiently. Sauer basically has become a win-win scenario for the Rangers. Sauer will never wow you with offensive skill or blistering mobility. He doesn’t need to. He makes solid decisions, is physically impressive and is as good a teammate as you’ll ever need. In short, Sauer is a model pro.

Marc Staal’s lingering physical issues may allow Sauer to take another step in his burgeoning career. Sauer became a good NHL, top four defenseman last season. Should Staal miss any kind of stretch of regular season games, Sauer could have the chance to show he can be a top pair defenseman. This is worth noting because it affects so many players in different ways. Sauer stepping up potentially affects Dan Girardi’s long term position with the organisation. A reliable two way guy, Girardi may find himself moved out for business/financial reasons down the line if prospects become NHL ready and Sauer (or another) can replace him on the top pair.

Sauer playing bigger minutes long-term allows the likes of Tim Erixon, Mike Del Zotto, Pavel Valentenko and Dylan McIlrath all to be brought along on more appropriate time-frames - once the rash of injuries begin to calm down. However, then there is the other side to all of this. If players like Sauer make themselves irreplaceable then guys such as Tomas Kundratek and Pavel ‘I have waiver issues’ Valentenko find themselves in murky water as far as their own futures go. Does one player’s progress also diminish any trade value they may have as well? This is a problem Sauer’s progression can pose.

There are so many ripple effects to consider because of a player’s development and Mike Sauer’s past year and his immediate future highlight it so well. The player is affected, the organisation’s depth is affected, the cap is a concern and business decisions may outrank sporting ones because of things such as contractual issues (i.e. ‘do we trade Girardi to free up cap to pay X, Y or Z?’). It isn’t just about a player simply moving up through an organisation any more. It’s so much more.

2012-2013: The Best in the League?

I know it’s foolish to look too far down the line, so much changes in a short space of time. However, is it possible that the Rangers will ice the league’s best defensive unit in 12 months time?

Look at the age, the skill sets, the personalities and physical tools that the Rangers have (and will have) at their disposal over the coming seasons. It’s actually quite scary when you look at the depth and age of the players the Rangers can choose from. It’s also a massive compliment to the drafting, trading and developmental ability of the Rangers in recent times.

When you consider the Rangers defensive core this season, it compliments each other very nicely. Marc Staal is coming off a 29 point season and has been one of the best shutdown defenders in the entire league for a few years now and is still only 24 while Dan Girardi’s assets have been well documented (blocking, blocking, blocking) while he too adds some offensive ability.

The Rangers (assuming Del Zotto starts in the minors) don’t benefit from an offensive whiz on the back end like the Kings do with Doughty or the Capitals do with Green but the Rangers may have one of the very best groups of multi faceted defensemen in the league right now. Ryan McDonagh and Mike Sauer are wise beyond their years and all four defenseman should continue to provide the Rangers with an excellent top four. With Girardi being the eldest at 27 the foursome could be together for many years and chemistry (and continuity) should not be underrated.

Beyond the top four, this season will see Mike Del Zotto – the Rangers own offensive hope – and Tim Erixon likely competing for bottom pair duty to begin the year with Steve Eminger. The key here is depth. Eminger has draft pedigree and proved to be a solid depth player for the Rangers so the Rangers truly don’t/won’t need to hold their breath when any of their defensemen take the ice. How many teams in the league can rely on each pair as much as the Rangers can?

Not only have the Rangers a great defense now, but even more impressive may be the future. Do the Rangers have their answer to Zdeno Chara in Dylan McIlrath? Only time will tell but the signs are encouraging and even if he doesn’t reach that standard the Rangers D only stands to get scarier. Never a bad thing. With Erixon, McIlrath and Del Zotto representing the future they are ably backed up by the likes of Valentenko and Kundratek to name a few.

Indeed, the Rangers may have 5-6 legitimate NHL candidates for the blueline beyond the current roster and again, how many teams can boast that depth? The current defensive roster is set but the Rangers haven’t rested on their laurels thanks to good drafting and the defense should be a strength (potentially) for another decade which bodes very well when behind them is a certain Henrik Lundqvist in net. These are many of the reasons for optimism surrounding the Rangers. They have built the right way, from the back out, and it doesn’t look like slowing down.

When I think how the Rangers have built recently I think of the Predators. Year after year the Preds drafted defensemen and they boast one of the deepest cores in the league. It has helped make a small market team highly competitive. The biggest difference is that the Rangers can keep their best players and always attract better ones. The Rangers can compete on every level the Predators cannot and the Rangers now boast a similar defensive pipeline as the Predators have.

It isn’t a stretch to say that with another year of development the Rangers could have the best defensive corps in the entire league. The unit has size, youth, skill, character and pedigree. When you have the talent and youth the Rangers do then it stands to reason that it should be a strength. We’ll see if it becomes the Rangers calling card.

The Prospect and Whale Low-down (part 3)

Over the last week we have posted the first two parts of the great Q &A we had between Brian Ring and Bob Crawford from the Connecticut Whale. Check them out here and here. Bob and Brian discussed everything from the best players during their time with the CT organisation to the current crop of promising Rangers prospects. Today is the final part of the series. Enjoy the read, I know I enjoyed it.

Regarding Evgeny Grachev; has his development come on between his first and second years as a pro and how?

Bob: I think Grachev made real good progress last season.  I think he’s a perfect example of that dominant Junior player who found that in the AHL his size, hands and shot would not by themselves let him control games.  He did a much better job this past year of picking up the pace of his game, using his size to protect the puck and disciplining himself to bring a consistent effort every night.  He’ll be a third-year pro next year, and as big as he is, I think he is still in the process of refining his strength from that of a teenager to that of a man.  If he can make some big strides in that area, I think he’ll be a quality NHLer for sure.

Brian: I think he definitely has improved and his scoring totals reflect that, and his plus/minus showed a +34 shift from last year to this year, for whatever that’s really worth. This past year, he definitely adopted a more physical style at times and started to use his frame to drive the net. I think in that regard, he is pretty similar to Anisimov, as once Artie started to use his size his production really started to pick up. Grachev has great size and talent, and once he puts it all together every night he’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

So many high scoring players in juniors come to the AHL and struggle offensively. What do you think are some of the biggest challenges for forwards making the jump?

Bob: I think, more than anything, it’s the speed of the game and the strength of the players.  Guys find themselves with much less time to make a play, much less room, and up against stronger and smarter players, than they were used to in Junior or college.  Some have another level to take it to, and adjust very quickly, some take a year or two, or several years, to figure out how to change their games and achieve success in the AHL, and some, unfortunately, never can make that adjustment, or never can find the will to do so.

Brian: I think it definitely boils down to size and speed. Not exactly ground-breaking analysis, but when you enter this league after playing against teenagers or guys that may not go pro, it can be tough when you run into grown men that have played several years of professional hockey. You aren’t going to have as much time to make a play, or as much space to operate in. Not to mention you probably aren’t playing with players you know or are comfortable with. So factor in all those things and you can understand why there could be an adjustment period.

What are the immediate Rangers chances of the young defensemen that didn’t make the big club last year?

Bob: Tomas Kundratek, to me, has the look of a young colt who is only just figuring out how good he can be.  His skating, size and effort level have me thinking that he is not far away from pushing the NHL.  Pavel Valentenko, if he makes similar strides to last year, will definitely be ready for a look, and it will be interesting to see if Blake Parlett can continue his upward trajectory.

Brian: I think Valentenko could probably step in right now if they needed him to. Yes, I am pretty high on “Tank”. Blake Parlett is probably not far away, I know he’s drawn some comps to Dan Girardi, which would be great. Tomas Kundratek I think is probably a little farther, but another year of development will be great for him, because he did make big strides this year. It will be interesting to see how Michael Del Zotto fits in this year as well, I guess that depends on what happens with New York’s roster and in camp.

Do you think the nucleus of these prospects that start in CT through 11/12 can provide CT with a playoff appearance – and why?

Bob: I definitely think the Whale can be a playoff team again, based on the organization’s overall skill level up front and a young group of D-men having another year of experience.  Hopefully one of the goaltenders will take charge as a 50-60-game dependable backstop…if that happens, I really like how the team could look for the ’11-’12 season.

Brian: Definitely. It’s a skilled bunch and GM Jim Schoenfeld, along with coaches Ken Gernander, J.J. Daigneault and Pat Boller, have done a phenomenal job running this team. I’m very excited to see this years’ team, I think it’s going to be a great crop of prospects and they have as good a chance to make the playoffs and contend as any team does.

Again, a final thanks to Bob Crawford and Brian Ring of the Connecticut Whale for taking their time to provide their unique insight into the Whale and the Rangers prospects. Check back throughout season (and off season) for regular looks at the CT Whale and how the Rangers prospects are doing ‘down on the farm’! Make sure you follow Brian and the Whale on twitter at @brianring and @CTWhale!

Erixon Arrival Promises Change To The Rangers

The Rangers are ‘counting on Erixon’ to make the team. These words, spoken by Rangers beat writer Steve Zipay on twitter, provided some significant insight on the newest member of the Rangers organisation. Numerous other writers and bloggers – not all from the Rangers community – congratulated the Rangers on the acquisition and many even went as far as to say that the Rangers have already had a good draft day because they will have ended up with two first round talents thanks to Erixon.

Assuming Erixon does make the team what do the Rangers have on their hands? Only 8 defensemen scored more points than Erixon in the SEL this past season. Many of those, including ex NHL players such as Janne Niinimaa and Josef Boumedienne, were veterans who can’t be considered to ‘still be developing’ like  20 year old Erixon.

Indeed, it appears only one ‘prospect’ scored more than Erixon and that was stud prospect David Rundblad. Erixon scored 24 points from the blue line in a league where only two players scored more than a point/game in the entire league (based on a minimum of 44 games played). The SEL is known as being a defensive, lower scoring league.

Erixon’s numbers are impressive whatever way you look at them. At just 20 years of age, listed at 6’3 and over 205lbs, the young Swede has the physical presence and skill to be a smart two way player for the Rangers for a long time. Two full years in the Swedish Elite League will have prepared him well for the NHL and that is without considering his substantial experience internationally.

So where does Erixon fit in?

Going back to Zipay’s words and the fact the Rangers expect him to make the club, one has to assume he’ll begin on the third pairing. The reason this is worth noting is because it will likely mean splitting up one of the top two pairs (Staal –Girardi, Sauer –McDonagh).

Why does Erixon’s arrival mean the splitting of one of the top two pairs?

Assuming Mike Del Zotto makes the Rangers out of camp (very plausible) it would be hard to imagine the Rangers putting Erixon on the third pair with MDZ. While Erixon acclimatizes to the NHL the Rangers will not want to put any extra pressure on Erixon, but especially not on Del Zotto as he tries to re-find his game. Giving Erixon a steady defensive partner like Mike Sauer or Dan Girardi would help him ease into his new role.

In addition to finding the right scenario for Erixon to develop in, upon graduation to NY Erixon probably becomes the Rangers second most skilled blue liner behind Del Zotto. Pairing them together would be a case of ‘putting all their eggs in one basket’. Change is coming to the New York blue line and not just in the arrival of Erixon, but because of the knock on effect he causes. Camp’s going to be interesting.