Goal breakdown: Penguins at Rangers

The up and down season continues for the Rangers as they dropped another game to the Penguins, 3-0 at the Garden tonight.  This was a frustrating loss, not only because the group’s low scoring ways continued, but because the Rangers did a lot of good things tonight and came up empty handed.  Let’s get to the goals…

Pittsburgh 1, Rangers 0

The Pens struck early in this one, just 1:24 into the opening frame.  The Rangers got caught running around in their own zone due to some quality puck movement from the Pens.  Kris Letang was able to sneak a nice lateral pass down to the back door for Malkin, who ripped a one-timer, short side for the early tally. Read more »

The Goal Breakdown: Penguins at Rangers

Ranger fans left The Garden disappointed tonight, as the Blueshirts dropped their home opener to the Penguins, in particularly brutal fashion, 6-3.  In a game we saw The King pulled in the second period, Rick Nash’s first Ranger goal, and continued sloppy, disjointed play, the good guys fell to 0-2-0 on the young season.  Let’s break down the goals…

Penguins 1, Rangers 0:  Only seconds after Aaron Asham kicked the game off with a solid tilt with Tanner Glass, Brad Richards took an undisciplined interference penalty just :37 into the game.  On the ensuing Pittsburgh powerplay, after some pressure, Marc Staal failed to the clear the zone as his attempt was picked off by Kris Letang.  The Pens continued to move the puck and eventually caught the Rangers running around.  James Neal was left alone in the slot, and he rifled a shot low to the glove side and past Lundqvist.  There may have been a small screen there, but I think Hank will want that one back.

Penguins 1, Rangers 1:  Around the nine minute mark, the Rangers were starting to buzz offensively.  An aggressive forecheck lead to a Simon Despres penalty for holding.  On the faceoff, Brandon Sutter took a penalty for playing the puck with his glove.  Apparently this is a new penalty this year.  Just ask Sam, he’ll tell you all about it.  This lead to a full two minute 5-on-3 for the Rangers.  The Pens decided to play two forwards and one defenseman and collapse the front of the net.  This allowed the PP unit the opportunity to move the puck freely around the perimeter and seek openings down low.  After alternating the two tactics, Richards drifted down into the high slot and ripped a half slapper toward the net.  Tomas Vokoun was unable to control the rebound and Captain Cally banged in the rebound as it was bouncing for the equalizer.  Read more »

Friday Musings: Wideman, Crosby, Schultz, and the cap

The musings are a day late today, but that’s only because all of the big news happened yesterday. Don’t blame us, blame everyone else for not making all this stuff happen before Thursday. I swear, everyone else is to blame, not us!

So Sidney Crosby gets $104.4 million over 12 years. From a hockey standpoint, that is a very risky contract. Crosby has had significant concussion issues, and could be one poorly placed hit away from early retirement. From a business standpoint, it’s a savvy investment in the face of the franchise. For an average of $8.7 million per season, the Pens get to keep their boy in Pittsburgh and reap the marketing benefits of having him there. They make more off him than he does off them, that’s for sure.

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Finding comparable contracts for Zherdev

One of the biggest issues facing GM Glen Sather this coming offseason is the contract status of stud winger Nikolai Zherdev. The 24 year old is in the final year of the three year, $7.5M deal he signed while with Columbus and will be a restricted free agent after the season, and we already know that the team is trying to lock him up long-term. There is some concern that he could bolt for the KHL, since teams in the Russian league can offer ginormous amounts of money in an effort to steal away players from the NHL (see Malkin, Evgeni).

We’ve seen some of the flakiness that reported plagued Zherdev with the Blue Jackets, as he was visibly pressing and frustrated at times this season. Even though he shows outstanding hands, the goal scoring hasn’t been there as hoped this year (he just snapped a 14 game goal drought). He has done a better job in his own zone, tying for the team lead with a +6. Even though he can enigmatic, he leads the team in scoring and his talent is clearly worth keeping around.

What I want to do is try to get a feel for what kind of contract offer Zherdev can expect from the Rangers after the season. I did this by finding similar aged players who signed long term deals after posting statistically similar seasons to Zherdev. I considered the three seasons before each player signed their deal, roughly approximating an entry-level deal. Granted, this isn’t the most scientific method in the world, but if nothing else it at least gives us a ballpark figure.

The table below is a quick summary of three similar players and how they performed prior to hitting the jackpot. The table reads chronologically left-to-right, so Year 3 is the season right before the player signed long-term, Year 2 is the season before that, and Year 1 the season before that. The age listed is the player’s age when they signed their fat contract.

And now, Zherdev:

* stats for Year 3 are his projected totals for this season, which I got off his ESPN Player Page.

First thought: holy cow did the Kings get a helluva deal on Dustin Brown. Second though, Zherdev fits right in with these players. He lags a little bit in the goal scoring department in his “contract year,” but the point totals are right there. Of course there’s a chance that Zherdev gets hot over the season’s final two months and eclipses that projection, but there’s always a chance he underperforms it too.

So does six years and $24M sound fair? Yeah, it does. Maybe five years, $20M sounds a little more reasonable, but that sixth year might be what it takes to keep him from heading back to the Motherland. I’ll leave contract details like annual payout (a backloaded deal would ease the cap burden) and no-movement protection (no, please) to the professionals. The framework of a five or six year deal with an average annual value around $4M does seem to make sense for both parties, however.

What do you think, too much, too little?