Looking for that power forward

Scott Burnside of ESPN ran a piece yesterday discussing what he terms “this year’s most tradable players,” a fan friendly list of a players likely to be moved in the weeks leading up to the deadline. There’s sexy names up and down the list, but for the most part the players either don’t fit any of the Blueshirts’ needs (Manny Fernandez, Vesa Toskala, The Bulinwall) or are just flat out unattainable because of talent/cap reasons (Jay Bouwmeester, Ilya Kovalchuk, Vinny Lecavalier, Marian Gaborik, Jason Spezza), except for one guy: Keith Tkachuk.

It seems like there’s a Tkachuk-to-the-Rangers rumor every year, and just like every other year the soon to be 37 year old would fill two needs: a top six forward and a guy that’ll park himself in front of the net with a man advantage. Tkachuk’s not Nik Antropov huge, but he does offer some size (listed at 6’2″, 231 lbs) and there’s a darn good chance he’ll be re-energized by joining a playoff team after making the postseason just once in the past four seasons (’06-’07 with Atlanta). He’s still got a nose for the net, potting fifteen goals this year (including the first goal in Sunday’s All Star Game) despite minimal help from his Blues teammates, and his ten power play goals (sixth most in the league) would far and away lead the club.

Now, how does the money work? Tkachuk’s making $4.5M this year and has a $4M cap number according to NHL Numbers, and is due to hit the free agent market following the season. That $4M cap hit is a bit of an eyesore but it’s certainly doable. Perhaps the deal could be expanded to included a physical (and cap friendly) defensman like Jeff Woywitka or Roman Polak, both of whom will be restricted free agents after the season. Adding that extra player would make giving up multiple young players/picks for Tkachuk much easier to swallow.

Bill Guerin’s name has been connected to the Rangers in the past few weeks, but Tkachuk is almost the exact same player production wise (15 G, 16 A vs 14 G, 18 A) except sixteen months younger and with a more favorable contract. Hopefully we hear some more about this in the coming weeks.

The Trade Deadline

It’s that time of the season where everyone not tied to a ridiculous salary (Drury, Gomez, Redden, Rozsival, Lundqvist) is mentioned in some sort of trade rumor. This is also the time of the season where we know who the definite sellers are (Islanders, Senators, Panthers, Thrashers, Blues) and who, barring a huge winning streak, the sellers will be (Lightning, Leafs, Predators, Kings).

If you’re dreaming of Kovalchuk or Bouwmeester in Ranger blue, then keep dreaming. The price tag on those two will be enormous. For Kovalchuk, think Staal, Anisimov, Del Zotto and a 1st rounder as a start. For Bouwmeester, think Staal, Anisimov and a 1st rounder to start. Kovalchuk is more expensive right now because he’s under contract for next year too. You also have to think about whatever throw-ins are needed to get the cap situation to work (Kalinin, Mara, Prucha, any one of Dawes / Callahan / Korpikoski). Big trades rarely happen in the NHL anymore, and a trade for either of these guys leaves the future in doubt. Once you get past those prospects, it’s a bunch of 3rd liners (minus Grachev) or 3rd pairing defensemen.

The Rangers have two glaring needs: a top six wing, and a bruiser defenseman (or a PP QB). The most obvious person to fill the first void would be Bill Guerin, but I highly doubt the Islanders would trade in-division, and I doubt Sather wants to give a draft pick + young player to a division rival.

One name that jumps out at me is Filip Kuba. He would be a rental player, as he’s a UFA after the season. The problem is that he would cost Dawes and a 4th rounder, plus whatever has to be thrown in to make the cap situation work. I don’t trust Sather with free agents, but he has been able to pull off some sparkling trades (Tyutin for Zherdev? Really?).

Another name that jumps out at me is Keith Tkachuk. He’s 2nd in scoring on a Blues team sans Kariya, and he’s a big physical body that they will need. He will crash the net and get the rebound goals that most of this current roster is scared, or too small, to do. His cost will be similar to Guerin’s cost (think Dawes + 3rd rounder, and then various salary cap players thrown in). JD will not be giving us a discount, so don’t even bother thinking it.

As for bruiser defensemen, how about Denis Gauthier? He’s 6’2 220, and is currently 13th in the league in hits with 120. he doesn’t take that many penalties (39 PIMS, with 1 fighting major, so 17 minor penalties all year). His one drawback is that he’s a -9 (this would actually tie him with Rozsival and Kalinin for worst +/- amongst defensemen), but he’s -9 on a team that called Jason Labarbera its starter for half the season. So he may actually be an upgrade there.

I think a move like Gauthier, who won’t cost more than a draft pick and whoever is thrown in to make the salary cap work (Gauthier made $2.1 million this year), is more likely than a move for Kuba/Tkachuk.

I love this time of year. I’ll post valid rumors (ie: comes from a legitimate source, not just someone behind a screen making trades in NHL 09) as I hear them.

Update 10:30am: I forgot to mention the Chris Pronger rumors. He would fill two holes, PP QB and bruiser defensemen (even if he does get schooled every now and then). He would cost the same as Bouwmeester, and is under contract for one more year ($6.25 million cap hit). A trade for Pronger isn’t happening unless Redden or Rozsival get thrown in. So basically, it’s extremely unlikely.

Game 41: Rangers vs. Penguins

I always get a little more excited than usual when the Rangers play the Penguins.  They are always great, hard fought games.  This time, both teams are looking to right the ship against their divisional rival.  The Penguins, losers of four in a row, have gone 5-10-1 since December.  They haven’t won back-to-back games since 11/13 and 11/15. But any team that boasts two of the three top scorers in the NHL can right that ship really quickly and is incredibly dangerous. In fact, any team that can put up nine goals in one game scares me. Yes, it was against the Islanders, but keep in mind the offensively-challenged Devils put up eight goals on our beloved Blueshirts with Hank in net.

The Rangers haven’t been much better. They are 6-6-1 since December, playing some of the most inconsistent hockey I’ve ever seen, and treading water while their other playoff opponents remain red hot. There is no Sean Avery type boost coming via the trade deadline (or via a return from injury) this year. There is no cap room, and anyone worth while (Jay Bouwmeester) is going to cost a lot more than anyone of us would want to pay (think Anisimov, Sanguinetti/Del Zotto, Callahan/Dawes, a first rounder, and whatever else Sather would have to throw in to make the cap number work) for a three-six month rental. I’m not a fan of that, and neither should you.

The answer has to come from within this locker room. That starts, and ends, with correcting the “special” teams. It’s actually come to a point where I actually pray that Tom Renney calls the ref over and asks to forfeit the power play, and just play 5 on 5. When your power play goals outnumber your shorthanded goals against by a margin of ONLY 2:1, then your team is in trouble. The only good thing in the special teams is the penalty kill, which has allowed a stingy 19 goals all season (league leader: Minnesota, 17).

I would expect more line changes after two poor efforts against the Islanders and Ovechkins, but I hope that Renney realizes that Prucha is probably the best Ranger skater not named Staal right now, and leaves him in the lineup. We shall see.

I’ll probably be doing an in game thread tonight. Keep checking back.

Update: As per Sam Weinman, Aaron Voros will be in tonight for the Korpedo. I don’t really understand this move, but I’m not a professional hockey coach.

Update 7:42: I just got back from dinner, and of course they put up a PPG. Dawes from Mara and Roszival makes it 1-0. This kill has been pretty good too.

Update 7:56: From the five minutes I was able to watch of the first period, it looks like Pittsburgh has lost its mojo. They just don’t seem to connecting or skating. They remind me of the Rangers of November/December.

Update 8:03: So the Dawes shot was a pass that banked off a defenseman and they have two PP shots on two PP opportunities. I knew that goal was a fluke. But hey, I’ll take it. In hockey, you’d rather be lucky than good.

Update 8:08: Ok I have no idea what just happened, but my VS. feed just froze. I hear the announcers going, but the image is stuck with 19:04 left in the period. Both the HD and regular feeds are frozen. I don’t think VS. can ever do anything right with their NHL games. Cablevision dropped the ball on this one. This is terrible.

Update 8:14: Why is Kalinin on the PP?

Update 8:18: It’s amusing to listen to the Marines commercials while looking at the image of Whitney with the puck on the Penguins PP early in the period.

And as amusing that was, it’s really fucking annoying that I can’t watch the game.

Update 8:23: So my VS. feed is back. I went from 19:04 left until 8:58 left without an image.

For the record, the Ernie’s Auto Body commercials are worse when there are no images. I hate that song.

Update 8:26: Wow Malkin is good. Ugly as sin, but so good.

Update 8:30: This game is moving rather slowly. It looks like both teams are in severe need of some adrenaline.

Update 8:34: What a shot by Kalinin. I hate him, but that was a rocket. I haven’t heard a ping that loud off the post in a while.

Update 8:36: Another PPG?! I need to check if hell froze over. What a blast by Mara. Gomez wins the draw clean and Mara just ripped a howitzer through Fleury. 2-0 Rangers on two PPGs.

Update 8:39: That was a stupid play by Drury. You can’t keep giving this team powerplays, especially on something as stupid as that delay of game.

Update 9:06: Note to Tom Renney: Keep playing Prucha. He hits, he skates, he TRIES! Plus, the fans love him.

Update 9:16: That was one of the prettiest goals I have ever seen this team finish. Wow. What a pass by Prucha. He can do it all folks. Fleury stood no chance. Drury from Pru and Dawes makes it 3-0, and the Crosby Sucks chants rain down from the heavens.

Update 9:23: And Therien pulls Fleury for the remainder of the PP. That’s a really interesting call. And as I write this, Drury fires for the empty net, and with no icing, Gomez buries the carom off the boards. The gamble doesn’t pay off, 4-0 Rangers. The funny thing is that this is a short handed goal for the Rangers, not against. And more Crosby Sucks chants from the heavens.

Update 9:25: Goddard just got the crap knocked out of him to start that fight. Orr rarely loses a fight. Looks like the Rangers got that shot of adrenaline about 15 seconds after I said they needed one.

Update 9:3: This is a big win for the Blueshirts. They outplayed the Pens all game. And the icing on the cake is a shutout for the King, his first of the season, and long overdue. 4-0 is your final score.