Rangers & Marc Staal Close To Contract?

As per Marc Brophy, via Sportsnet.ca, the Rangers and restricted free agent Marc Staal are closing in on a deal. The “saga” has dragged out all summer, and has been the biggest concern amongst Ranger fans. General Manager Glen Sather has been relatively outspoken on the negotiations, saying that the difference was “a chasm” and that the Rangers would match any potential offer sheet presented to the young, star defenseman. Staal is clearly the Rangers best defenseman, and it would serve them well to have him signed when camp opens next week.

There aren’t many details in the Brophy article, but it’s safe to assume Staal will be at least the third highest paid defenseman on the team (Wade Redden, Michal Rozsival). Hopefully there will be an official signing announcement soon.

Update: Andrew Gross is reporting that a second source has confirmed talks. Nothing is imminent, but this is good news.

Training Camp Preview: Defense

Training camp is right around the corner, and in our next training camp preview series –goalies were done last week– we are going to look at the defensemen vying to make the roster for the 2010-2011 season. Defense isn’t as cluttered as the forward position, but there are going to be some interesting battles in camp for those final two spots in the top six. The battle for that seventh defenseman spot, should there be a seventh defenseman, is also going to be interesting. The Rangers have four players battling for those three spots, and there are some other rookies that may be off most people’s radar, but could be dark horses to make the team.

Marc Staal: The unsigned defender is the Rangers best defenseman. Seeking a big raise from his $800,000 salary last year, the Rangers are going to need Staal signed and playing in order to compete this year. Staal logs all his minutes against opponents top lines, and does a great job at shutting them down. At the end of last season, he showed some offensive prowess, scoring in three straight games as the Rangers made a desperate push for the playoffs. Staal’s 10.4 GVT was third on the team last year, and second among skaters (Marian Gaborik was tops). His 6.4 DGVT was tops on the team by a full goal. Staal’s value to the team is almost immeasurable, and many fans are starting to get worried about when he will sign.

Dan Girardi: Girardi is an interesting conundrum. On one hand, all fans see is that he didn’t stand up for Gaborik as he got pummeled by Dan Carcillo. On the other hand, Girardi’s 5.0 DGVT (second on the team) and 6.8 GVT (fifth among skaters) shows just how valuable he really is. To put those numbers in perspective, Girardi had a better GVT than Fedor Tyutin (who some fans want back), Jay Bouwmeester, Dennis Wideman, Dion Phaneuf, Anton Volchenkov, and Zbynek Michalek. His 5.0 GVT is good for 32nd in the league, better than all those guys just mentioned, and other guys like Dan Hamhuis. Sure, Girardi may be a little overpaid at $3.325 million per season, but he’s a top four defender on almost every team in the league.

Read more after the jump

Erik Johnson Setting the Marc Staal Market?

A few days ago, the St. Louis Blues agreed to terms with RFA defenseman Erik Johnson, locking up the young, promising defenseman for two years at $2.6 million per year (cap hit). In reality, the Blues did more than lock up Johnson. They actually helped the Rangers gauge what the market for Marc Staal would be. Both players are alarmingly similar in many aspects: both are first round picks, both are under the age of 25, both are 6’4 200+ lbs, and both are coming off entry level deals. There is a significant drop in cap number for Johnson, but that is because he earned a ton of money in bonuses (he was a #1 overall pick). The annual salary between the two is within $100,000.

Now let’s look at the stats: Johnson is more of a scorer than Staal, with two straight 30 point seasons. However, both are coming off seasons with career highs in goals, assists, and points, and one can make the argument that if Staal saw the same amount of PP time that Johnson saw, then his offensive numbers would be around the same caliber. At the end of the season, Staal took on a more offensive role, scoring in three straight games. Looking deeper at the metrics, Staal is coming off an amazing year, posting a 10.4 GVT (4.0 OGVT, 6.4 DGVT). Johnson posted a 9.2 GVT (5.6 OGVT, 3.6 DGVT). Meanwhile, the QUALCOMP for Staal is off the charts. Staal had the 3rd highest QUALCOMP amongst players with greater than 60 games played (Patrice Bergeron and Marian Gaborik trump him) at .139. Meanwhile, Johnson posted a measly -.030 QUALCOMP, putting him somewhere in the middle of the pack in QUALCOMP.

When analyzing the numbers, it’s very evident that Staal is better defensive defenseman, but has yet to put up offensive numbers. Powerplay time, or lack thereof, is definitely a contributing factor to Staal’s less-than-favorable offensive number, but unfortunately, that will work against him. What Johnson lacks in overall defensive ability, he makes up for on the offensive side of the puck, which gives him sexier numbers. What the overall GVT numbers show is that the difference between Staal and Johnson as a collective whole is minimal.

The fact that Erik Johnson, who is for all intents and purposes an effective comparison to Marc Staal, signed for $2.6 million should put Ranger fans at ease. It is extremely unlikely that any team is going to give Staal an offer sheet of much more than $2.6 million per year, when the market has been set to such a number (considering the rumors of Staal’s contract demands, he wouldn’t even sign an offer sheet for that little anyway). Luckily for the Rangers, waiting out the situation played into their favor, as Johnson signed for what appears to be well below market value (Dan Girardi got $3.325 million, so Johnson is making less than him). When one player signs for below value, it affects overall value. Staal will be signed, but it will probably be for less than what he originally was aiming for.

Marc Staal’s (eventual) New Deal

As the ‘summer’ continues to roll by (with rain by the bucket load here in the UK) and Marc Staal remains unsigned many people are wondering why. One thing that has come to my mind is whether the Kovalchuk saga affects a new Staal deal. While being the Rangers best defenceman Staal is not yet at or near the top of his class like Kovalchuk is so wont command the same kind of commitment from the Rangers but there is a chance that with the new scrutiny the league appears to be showing that Sather will find it difficult to be creative when it comes to the contract (assuming they even agree numbers).

While The Rangers will never need to front load deals to the extent of other clubs looking for ways around actual salary, Sather and co. may have been looking for a way to stretch the deal out and ease the cap burden on the club. Will they be able to find a way considering the leagues new stance on deals?

Would Sather even be willing to lock up Staal for a decade or longer while the hugely talented shutdown defenceman is still in his developmental years? Kovalchuk probably wont affect Staal’s deal but the fact this ‘contract’ has happened means there’s more food for thought every time a player is locked up long term. What would the league say if tomorrow The Rangers announced that Staal was locked up for 11 years and 44m? It will be interesting to see what Staal’s deal looks like when (not if – calm down folks) it’s announced.

A Look at the Staal/Girardi Market

This post has been updated to reflect Dan Girardi’s actual salary of $3.325 million.

The Rangers have two more key moves to set themselves up for the foreseeable future, and that is locking up Marc Staal long term, and locking up Dan Girardi for at least the short term. It is tough to gauge the market on RFAs, as there is very little negotiating power on the player’s side. The only real leverage a RFA has is to file for arbitration, which Girardi did a week ago. By filing, he is guaranteed a one year deal at an arbitrator-decided market value. But, what it also does is prevent him from being offer sheeted. Staal, on the other hand, is clearly the Rangers cornerstone on defense, and someone the Rangers really need to lock up. BSB regular Jeff Sullivan (Section 121) was kind enough to provide a spreadsheet of the key free agents from this year, their average stats from the past three seasons, and what their 2011 salary will be:

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Marc Staal for Bobby Ryan?

With the Marc Staal negotiations at “a chasm”, the Rangers may be put in a position to lose the young defenseman to an offer sheet. However, rumblings out of Anaheim are that Bobby Ryan and Ducks GM Bob Murray are also at odds with the contract negotiations, and Ryan may price himself out of Anaheim. With that said, if the Rangers and Staal cannot come to an agreement, would you trade Staal for Ryan, provided you can get Ryan under contract? Note: This is just me just thinking out loud, and there is no rumor or anything that backs this up.

It sure would make for an interesting scenario. If the Rangers do in fact trade Staal for Ryan, how do you then justify trading Bobby Sanguinetti for draft picks? Also, it then becomes a must that Dan Girardi be re-signed. But who would replace Staal? Is there anyone in the system that can pick up the slack? How would the blue line look, within cap restraints, if you do in fact swap Staal for Ryan?

With the UFA season just three days away, the Rangers need to either get Staal under contract, or risk losing him. Gaining something back in the form of Bobby Ryan would make losing Staal more palatable though.

Sather: “Staal Gap a Chasm”, At Risk of Being Offer Sheeted

As per Steve Zipay, the Rangers and RFA defenseman Marc Staal are nowhere near close to a deal. In fact, it isn’t so much a wide gap as it is “a chasm”. This is not good for the Rangers. Staal’s contract will dictate what the Rangers do in this offseason. In addition to handcuffing the Rangers, Staal may also be at risk of being offer sheeted by another team. Sather did not come out and say that Staal could be offer sheeted, but it is now being speculated that he could be. If he signs an offer sheet, the Rangers would receive some compensation in terms of draft picks depending on the size of the contract offered. (For details on the size of compensation, please refer to the Understanding the Cap page.) Of course, that is pure speculation on my part, but stating the Rangers and Staal are far apart just invites offer sheets from other teams.

Also, Zipay mentioned that Sather refused to talk about Ilya Kovalchuk, fearing any sort of tampering accusation. Should the Rangers make a push for Kovalchuk, there will need to be some serious salary cap maneuvering.

Sather Reveals Some Offseason Plans

In a rather, and somewhat rare, candid interview with Larry Brooks, Glen Sather has disclosed some of the Rangers offseason plans. There are a few soon-to-be free agents that Sather mentions specifically, which is something of a rarity for NHL clubs.

On Donald Brashear:

“I told Donald this week that he would not be playing for the Rangers,” Sather told Slap Shots. “After the statements he made, absolutely not; that was the end of it.”

This isn’t much of a shock to Rangers fans, as it was assumed that the aging enforcer would not be back after being demoted last season. The Rangers will still have $1.3 million of his $1.4 million cap hit on the books, as per the current CBA stipulations.

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Dubinsky, Gilroy, Staal, Anisimov Headed to Worlds

As per Kevin Allen of USA Today, Brandon Dubinsky and defenseman Matt Gilroy will be representing Team USA in the World Championships. Both players have something to prove, as Gilroy was a healthy scratch for the final eight games of the Rangers season, and Dubinsky battled inconsistency all year. Ryan Callahan would have participated, but will sit out to help his knee heal.

Bob McKenzie is reporting that Marc Staal will be named to Team Canada. Staal, who was left off the Olympics roster, is a solid addition for Team Canada.

Larry Brooks is reporting that Artem Anisimov will play for Russia. Anisimov was impressive all year in minimum ice time, and should be able to build on this experience and come to camp next year to take the #1 center position.

Top Draft Picks of The Decade

Yeah, yeah, I know. The decade ended already. We’re in a new one. But, better late than never, right? I’ve seen a lot of these, and wanted to throw in my two cents. Here are the Rangers top 10 draft picks of the decade (Note: I considered time played with the Rangers. Marek Zidlicky was a great pick, but he never suited up. So he’s not on the list.)

10. Lauri Korpikoski

The “Korpedo” was the 19th overall pick in the 2004 draft. In his one full season on Broadway, Korpikoski established himself as a nice defensive forward with some offensive skills. He was later traded for Enver Lisin. He was 6-8-14 last year. I’m kind of disappointed the Rangers gave up on him so early. While Lisin clearly has some great offensive skills, the “Korpedo”could’ve been another Ryan Callahan type.

9. Bobby Sanguinetti

He hasn’t played much in the NHL, but he clearly has a lot of talent. He has offensive skills, and is improving defensively. He’s playing well in Hartford, but still needs time in the AHL. You’ll see a lot of him next year.

8. Fedor Tyutin

Fedor Tyutin was a stalwart on the blueline for the first couple years of the Rangers resurgence. Big, strong, composed, he had a bright future ahead of him. Still does. Only it will be in Columbus. Tyutin was part of the Nik Zherdev deal. Again, I’m disappointed that they gave up on him. We could’ve used him now.

7. Artem Anisimov

Still only a rookie, Anisimov  is showing flashes of offensive brilliance, with an improving defensive sense. So far, he is 7-8-15, and he seems to improve every game. We know he can score; he scored 37 goals in Hartford last year. I think he has star potential. He’s 6-4 and has room to put some weight on his frame.

6. Brandon Dubinsky

Dubinsky is starting to live up his potential, as he’s getting first line duty with Marian Gaborik. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Dubinsky is a talented forward. Score, hit. He can do it all. He has the potential to be a big time player.

5. Petr Prucha

One of the surprises coming out of the lockout, Prucha posted 30 goals in his rookie year. Of course, he fell into the doghouse after that, and saw his goal totals dip, before being shipped off to Phoenix. A fan favorite, Prucha really got the short end of the stick. Once Jagr left, he wasn’t getting the same chances. Making this pick even better was that it was in the 8th round of the 2002 draft. A steal, to say the least.

4. Michael Del Zotto

Taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, MDZ surprised some by making the team this year. He quickly took the lead on the power play, and has been one of the best rookies in the NHL. He has Leetch-like skill. Great vision, unbelievable passing, and a good shot. He’s a keeper, that’s for sure.

3. Ryan Callahan

Taken in the 4th round of the 2004 draft, Callahan’s rise has been breathtaking. He’s an energy winger, who works hard, but it pays off as he scored 22 goals last year. A great penalty killer, and he loves to hit. He is the alternate captain of the Rangers, and was named to the US Olympic team. He’s a future captain.

2. Marc Staal

Another first round pick, Marc Staal is quickly becoming a shut down defenseman. His offensive skills are still a work of progress, but he is always paired against opposing teams best players. He is one of the best young players in the league, and will anchor the Rangers blueline for a long time.

1. Henrik Lundqvist

Some may say this was the best pick of the decade for the entire NHL. He was taken in the 7th round of the 2000 draft. He wasn’t even the first goalie the Rangers took. They took Brandon Snee in the 5th  round. Who is Brandon Snee? Exactly. Lundqvist is one of the best goalies in the league. He led Sweden to a gold medal. He has been nominated for the Vezina trophy multiple times. He is the key to the Rangers success. What a draft pick.

There are others who didn’t make this list. I didn’t include promising youngsters such as Chris Krieder, Derek Stepan, Ryan Borque, or Evegeny Grachev. They haven’t played a game yet in the NHL. Alexei Cherepanov would be on this list somewhere, if not for his tragic death. But, in the last part of the decade ,the Rangers have done a great job of drafting. Some really promising players in the system. I can’t wait.