Room for Improvement for Marc Staal

Naturally, after the prolonged absence through concussion Marc Staal needed some time to get back in to game shape and find his rhythm on the ice once more. Recently, there has been some signs Staal is getting back to being the quality defenseman that he is, however progress has been slow.

Staal isn’t playing as physically as normal, isn’t taking shots when the opportunity arises and isn’t using the puck effectively. Staal’s passing ability in previous seasons, while not elite, was underrated. Above all though, Staal has been tentative, particularly along the boards and his decision making hasn’t been as sharp as we have grown accustomed to. How long is long enough to ease your way back? Is 20 games an expected time frame?

It goes without saying that a Rangers team with Marc Staal in his All Star form is a scary animal for any team in the East playoffs. Staal makes it a team with effectively three quality shutdown defenseman (alongside Girardi and McDonagh) and that isn’t factoring in the possible return of Mike Sauer. With Staal in form, with the Vezina winning Lundqvist behind him, this team has the stingy and deep defense to go very, very far. Even with a sputtering powerplay and inconsistent offense.

Recent signs have started to show progress however. We’ve seen aggression come out of Staal recently that isn’t normally his calling card. Usually a cool customer, Staal seems to be gaining an edge which, full form allowing, could make him an even better player. The past couple of games have seen Staal improve and with a career low average ice time you have to assume there is plenty of gas in the tank for Staal – and room for improvement.

Staal should be the Rangers biggest addition during the stretch. Yes, he’s already here but the Staal that routinely shutdown the likes of Alex Ovechkin is not quite. Staal’s return to prominence is why Rangers fans should be excited about this team’s chances come April. In the coming games Tortorella should begin to throw Staal into more and more pressure situations and give him more ice time. He may make the odd mistake but it’s the best way for him to get back to his old level.

You want another benefit of Staal being given more by Tortorella? Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh should by default get less ice time which should help keep them fresh(er) for the playoffs. Imagine a top four of Staal – Girardi – McDonagh and Sauer in the playoffs; all healthy, all fresh, all in form. That’s a scary thought for any team to consider.

Rangers/Bruins recap

• This game belonged to Lundqvist.  I will elaborate more later in the recap, but not bulleting him first would have been a travesty.
• Ryan Callahan is just scorching hot right now.  6 goals in his last 4 games and another power play goal.  For those keeping score at home that’s 38.5% over the past 4 games, with greatly improved puck movement.
• This game was remarkably clean considering the physicality and the personalities at play.  A couple of off-setting minors and a few scuffles, but mostly just hard nosed hockey.
• The Blueshirts started off a little slow but really came on in the second half of the first period.  The forecheck was relentless and forced turnovers using the newly implemented system that The Suit so conveniently broke down just this afternoon.
• The Rangers were the beneficiaries of a fortunate bounce off Chara (own-goal anyone?) at the end of the second period.  From then on out, the Rangers played well defensively, but rested a little too much on Hank’s brilliance and seemed to do a little too much clock watching.  20 shots on goal isn’t going to cut it in the playoffs.
• I thought Brandon Dubinsky played very well tonight.  1 assist and a +1, plus ten stitches and some chipped teeth highlighted a very blue collar effort.  He really needs to start being more decisive when handling the puck though.  He had several opportunities to pull the trigger and preferred the pass.  We all know what Dubi is capable of when he shoots with confidence.
• On defense, Ryan McDonagh and Marc Staal had particularly strong games.  Del Zotto had yet another assist (4 in the past 4 games), and Girardi continued his steady play.
• Carl Hagelin’s speed continues to be an asset.  He was strong on the forecheck and negated a couple icing calls.  He threw the body around and was a general nuisance to the Bruins all game long.
• Artem Anisimov is quietly playing some of his best hockey this season after being reunited with Gaborik (another assist, who knew he had the playmaker gene?) and Stepan.  Arty has 6 points in his last 6 games, and has made his presence known.
• Now with all that out of the way, we can move on to the goaltending.  Now, I don’t make it a secret that I am not much of a Tim Thomas fan, but he played fairly well tonight.  Obviously, Cally’s PP goal was one that you can’t really hold the goalie responsible for, but it was a mini-illustration of the problem I have with Thomas’ style.  He works incredibly well within Boston’s defensive system, but his aggressive style takes him out of plays after the first shot, and forces his defense to compensate for him.  If you watch the replay, although the goal was in no way his fault, all his effort went directly to Del Zotto and gave himself absolutely no chance to stop the shot on the lateral pass.
• Thomas griping aside, the real story in this game was The King.  He was absolutely out of this world tonight.  He was in solid position on the first shot and was balanced and poised for the rebounds.  He bailed out tired defenders countless times when Boston was mounting extended shifts of pressure.  If he continues to play at even 85% of the level he is at right now, he is a lock for the Hart Trophy.  Hank deserved his league-leading shutout, with 42 saves and continues to sport the best save percentage in the league and is second in GAA only to Brian Elliot, who has played in 15 less games.

With this win, the Rangers are now 9 points up on the 2^nd place Bruins.  Mike Keenan made the bold prediction that no one is going to catch this team now.  You guys agree? Off tomorrow and then the Blackhawks come to town on Thursday at 7pm.

The Prospect Quagmire

As the trade deadline approaches, no time is more fun to play armchair GM.  Its easy to swap underperforming players and picks like trading cards and instantly transform the team into a playoff power house.  This enjoyable little exercise usually leads to us giving a deeper examination to the value of prospects and roster players we could see being moved for a deadline upgrade.

Prospects were once traded with relative anonymity and by the time they blossomed into stars, we had probably forgotten what organization originally drafted them (I know I had long forgotten that Adam Graves was originally a Red Wings draft pick).  Today, we can follow the career of a young player from the junior hockey/college ranks, even some in prep school.  This type of access allows us, as fans, to form bonds with these players and the potential impact that they may have some day.  Just like children, everyone loves their own kids more than anyone else’s and this is an especially important concept come prime trading times.

Let me preface this by saying that I am tremendously excited for the future of the Rangers organization.  They have drafted and traded well over the past 5+ years and the system is starting to bear the fruit of that work.  There is serious prospect depth in the minors/juniors and we have seen homegrown stars in Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and Ryan Callahan come into their own right before our eyes.  Players like Brandon Dubinsky and Michael Del Zotto have found success at the NHL level and Carl Hagelin has made an immediate impact since his call up.  Also, we can’t leave out everyone’s favorite 7^th round draft pick, Henrik Lundqvist.

We all like to envision every member of the farm system representing another piece in an all homegrown Rangers Stanley Cup champion.  After all, young, cost-controlled players with upside are the best way to manage the cap and avoid the potential albatross deals that have been something of a blight on Glen Sather’s record.  From a practical standpoint however, one of the biggest benefits of a strong farm system is the ability to trade from an area of strength to shore up weaknesses on the big club.  As Dave has astutely pointed out in his Scouting the Deadline series, it is important to be able to accurately value these assets and make a business decision about whether to proceed with a given move.

What we all need to remember is that prospects are essentially lottery tickets.  We have all lived through our fair share of first round busts, and unfortunately the vast amount of players simply don’t live up to their ceiling.  Take Chris Krieder, for example.  Every scouting report I have ever read about him says his physical gifts are truly elite.  On the other hand, there are serious concerns about his hockey IQ and awareness/anticipation on the ice.  Now, this obviously isn’t to say he cannot succeed or be every bit as effective as his skills will allow him to be.  It’s just to say that he is not a known quantity at this point.  Depending on the other pieces, I wouldn’t be opposed to including him in a trade for someone like Bobby Ryan for instance.

As the deadline draws near, the Rangers’ are in somewhat of a precarious position.  Their window of contention is opening a little earlier than most expected, and it takes careful management not to overplay your hand and set your organizational development back.  Stripping down the farm system for an elite player could potentially be that final piece that brings Lord Stanley back to Broadway, or it could mean losing several key pieces that could help achieve the same result in 2-3 years.  This is the $64,000 question.

The ability to follow our teams prospects from the amateur ranks to The Show has added a new layer to hockey fandom.  It helps give up a more three-dimensional look at the management of the organization and it’s a lot of fun to see where the next crop of great Rangers is going to come from.  When it comes to evaluating moves or non-moves made this deadline season, it’s important not to hug prospects too tightly and look rather at the whether the move is good asset management and will help the team deliver its goal of raising the Stanley Cup in the very near future.

Halfway There Report Card: The Defense

With the halfway point of the season upon us (for the most part), and the Rangers in first place, it’s as good of a time as any to begin with the mid-point report cards. We are going to do these in a series of posts, with Chris covering the top six forwards, Suit covering the bottom six forwards, Justin covering the goalies, and myself covering the defense.

The Rangers have used a whopping 11 defensemen since the season started. This is mostly due to the Marc Staal injury, but other injuries along the way have forced the Rangers’ hand. Despite the obvious disadvantage, the Rangers have allowed just 82 goals against, good for second in the league. The Bruins top this, but let’s be honest: The Bruins are in a class above everyone else right now.  Let’s get to those grades:

Marc Staal: He’s played just a handful of games. Everyone knows he’s the rock on defense, and the Rangers just upgraded tremendously with him coming back. Grade: INC.

Dan Girardi: With Staal out indefinitely, the blue line was put in Girardi’s hands…and boy did he deliver. Girardi has been flawless in his own end. He plays the most minutes in the entire league, he plays against top competition, he consistently shuts down that top opposition, he has been contributing offensively, and he has been a leader for this young Rangers team. Grade: A+.

Ryan McDonagh: Staal’s injury opened up a spot for McDonagh on the top pairing, and he has been sensational in that role. He and Girardi have clicked, and aside from a few poor games, McDonagh has been a monster. Rick Carpiniello of LoHud calls him McMonster, and that’s exactly what he is. Throw in his growing offensive skills, and this sophomore defenseman has been a tremendous pickup. Thank you Mr. Gomez. Grade: A.

Michael Del Zotto: Another player that was forced to play up a pairing due to injury, Del Zotto has also been phenomenal. He leads the defensemen in scoring, and is fifth on the team in that same category with 23 points (5-18-23). He leads the team in assists, plus/minus, fan girls, and haters. Seriously, what else does this kid need to do? Sure, he makes a bad pass every now and then, but he’s 22 years old. I’ll take this from a 22 year old any day. Grade: A.

Mike Sauer: Currently out with a concussion, Sauer was the rock on the blue line that most thought was the reason for Del Zotto’s re-emergence.  Although Del Zotto has succeeded without Sauer in the lineup, Sauer is still an integral part of the Rangers blue line. He doesn’t put up the fancy numbers that Del Zotto does, he doesn’t garner the All Star consideration that Girardi does, but he just does his job. The best thing you can say about a defensive defenseman is that you don’t notice him, and rarely does Sauer go noticed. Grade: A.

Steve Eminger: Eminger had an atrocious start to the year. He just couldn’t do anything right, and was a bit of a whipping boy ’round these parts. However, when Sauer went down with his concussion, Emmy stepped up. Much like last year with the Michal Rozsival injury, Eminger assumed top four minutes and played like a champ. His start hurts his grade, but he gets significant bonus points for his ability to play up to his role, no matter what. His injury was supposed to be the one that crippled the Rangers, who were already without Staal and Sauer, but it didn’t. Grade: B.

Jeff Woywitka:Serviceable, reliable, tough, and surprisingly reliable. Much like Eminger, Woywitka was a whipping boy here after his poor start to the season. However, unlike Eminger, he played better as he got used to the John Tortorella way of life, and has been a great bottom pairing guy since. Maybe he has received too much ice time because of injuries, but the Rangers sure haven’t noticed. Kudos to Woywitka for persevering, and earning his continued stay with the Blueshirts. Grade: B.

Anton Stralman: Signed as a free agent a few weeks into the season, no one knew what to expect from Stalman. After a few weeks with the team, it was clear that Tortorella wasn’t a big fan, a point confirmed on HBO’s 24/7 last week. However as he has played, he has grown into a player that is not only reliable, but someone that Tortorella can play top-four minutes without hesitation. Stralman has been paired with Del Zotto, and both have flourished. Martin Biron might be the best offseason acquisition in a while, but the signing of Stralman might be the most underappreciated. Grade: A-.

Stu Bickel: The last man cut from the blue line in the preseason, Bickel earned a call up following Eminger’s separated shoulder and Woywitka’s bruised foot forced the Rangers’ hand. Bickel has been a physical presence on the blue line that has rarely made a mistake. He’s still a rookie, and yes his mistakes have and will come, but the Rangers couldn’t have asked for more from him. With Sauer out, Bickel has replaced that physicality that was sorely missing. Grade: B+.

Tim Erixon: He played in the beginning of the year when Sauer was out, and most recently while Woywitka was out. It’s clear he’s still not ready for the big show, but he’s a promising young defenseman that has done many things right. He’s only played 13 games, but it’s apparent the Rangers have a serious NHL player on their hands. Grade: INC.

Brendan Bell: Played one game. Grade: INC.

*Here is Justin’s mid-season report for the goalies & Suit’s report for our bottom six forwards. Stay tuned for reports on our top 6 forwards and our coaches.

Changes Are Coming On The Blue Line

Not sure if you guys caught this, but Marc Staal returned to the lineup in dramatic fashion, just in time for the Winter Classic. Again, if you missed this, I don’t blame you, the news was sort of buried amidst the other Winter Classic hooplah.

All kidding aside, Staal’s return marked the 11th defenseman the Rangers have used this season. Stepping back, it really is remarkable how they are this good despite playing everyone except my mother on defense this season.

With Staal back in the lineup, the obvious scratch choice was Jeff Woywitka, and as expected, he was scratched for the Winter Classic. Woywitka, claimed off waivers, was essentially an insurance policy and a body to dress for games. In all fairness, he exceeded expectations and was extremely serviceable. He came in, adjusted to the new system, and played some steady third line minutes…with some hiccups of course.

Now with Mike Sauer looking like he is on the path to return –he skated with the team– the Rangers are going to need to find a place to insert him when he returns. The only realistic options for replacement are Anton Stralman and Stu Bickel, as none of Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, or Michael Del Zotto will be sitting any time soon.

Considering the current pairings, it is my guess that Bickel will be the one who sits for Sauer, when he returns. It’s nothing against the kid, who has played very well (again with some hiccups) in his call up, it’s just a numbers game. It makes more sense for Bickel to be returned to the AHL and get significant ice time than for him to sit around as the healthy scratch for weeks at a time. It is for that same reason that I expect Woywitka to stick around for a long time, at least until Steve Eminger heals.

The decisions about scratches and replacements are easy decisions. The decisions for defensive pairings however is a very tough choice. Does John Tortorella go back to his bread-and-butter pairing of Staal-Girardi? Does he leave Girardi with McDonagh and put Staal with Sauer? Does Del Zotto get matched back up with Sauer, leaving Staal to play with Stralman? These are questions that can only be answered by the coaching staff and by the players’ performance on the ice.

Personally, I would go back to ole reliable: Staal/Girardi, McDonagh/Sauer, MDZ/Stralman. That gives the Rangers two legitimate shut down pairings that also have some offensive upside, plus the surprisingly strong pairing of MDZ/Stralman to give the top four much needed rest. That leaves Eminger as the odd man out, but you would have to assume Stralman and Eminger would be rotating. Assuming those three pairings play the way that is expected and the way that they have all year, the Rangers have one of the deepest blue lines in the league.

The Rangers haven’t played a single game this season with a full strength blue line, yet they remain in first place in the conference. The Times They Are a-Changin’.

Marc Staal Returns Today

As speculated by myself yesterday and debated between myself and Chris today, defenseman Marc Staal will return to the lineup today for the Winter Classic. He will play on the third pairing with Stu Bickel. No word on who will sit, but my hunch is either Ryan McDonagh (flu) or Jeff Woywitka (healthy).

This is big news for the Rangers, who have been without Staal the entire season. Staal will see limited minutes, but it is great to see him back.

No Staal Return – The Right Decision

Marc Staal is not rushing back today (speculation sparked by ESPN’s John Buccigross) and is the right decision from everyone concerned. Given his strong comments relating to any impending Staal comeback, it’s hard to imagine John Tortorella would have sanctioned the pivotal defenseman’s return unless doctors had absolutely cleared him for the game.

Staal’s return shouldn’t have come because Ryan McDonagh is down with the flu. He should come back when he is ready to come back. Whenever Staal returns, there’s likely to be rust. Not many players can have his kind of lay off and return without missing a beat. The Winter Classic, already played in exceptional circumstances, is not a good choice to return even where there’s health permitting, absolutely not.

The Rangers should allow Staal to return later in the week, give him a few more days of hard skating. Another aspect to consider with the game today; don’t underestimate the likelihood of a dirty, physical game against the Flyers (as is the norm); another reason to tread carefully with the Rangers best blue-liner.

If you can insert a quality player in to the line up who is ready to do so then it’s a no-brainer, but clearly Staal isn’t ready – yet. Let’s just hope all the reasons for Staal’s return – whenever that may be – are the right ones.

McDonagh Leaves Practice Early; Staal Skates With Girardi

Per Jim Cerny, defenseman Ryan McDonagh left practice early with the flu. Following his departure, Marc Staal skated with his usual partner –and McDonagh’s current partner– Dan Girardi. The Rangers are not carrying any extra defensemen in the event that McDonagh cannot go tomorrow.

This leads to my own speculation: Could Staal play tomorrow if McDonagh can’t go tomorrow? It seems to be the only scenario that would be likely if this is the scenario. We may know more as the day progresses, either directly via an announcement, or indirectly via specific roster moves.

For Staal to be activated, the Rangers need to put both Mike Sauer and Steve Eminger on LTIR. Neither are close to returning, so those would be the logical moves to clear the cap space.

This is just speculation on my part, but it’s going to be interesting to see what happens if McDonagh’s condition doesn’t improve. It’s just the flu, but it’s still the flu.

Stralman’s Short Stay

One of the more underrated aspects of the Rangers recent impressive stretch is Anton Stralman stepping up and playing solidly on the second pair. Increased minutes (17/game), sound defense (+9 rating) and a decent offensive game (5 assists in just 12 games); Stralman has helped ease the Rangers through a torrid stretch of injuries on their blue line. However, we probably shouldn’t get used to Stralman patrolling the Rangers blue line.

There’s a very good chance Stralman is auditioning for the rest of the NHL. The Rangers are pretty stacked on the blue line. With Marc Staal and Mike Sauer set to return and with Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh and Mike Del Zotto all core pieces of the blue line going forward there’s only really one spot left to fight over on the blue line with lots of candidates aiming for that spot six.

The also-impressive (surprising) Stu Bickel, Dylan McIlrath and Tim Erixon will all also be in the mix for the final spot next season. Steve Eminger and Jeff Woywitka (at this point in time) may also be considered, especially Eminger. Hopefully with Erixon getting big minutes in CT, he’ll be ready for a full time NHL role next season making competition at camp intense.

Stralman could be a viable candidate from the Rangers point of view. As we’ve said, he’s proven he can handle minutes and make plays at both ends of the ice but the main reason he’s probably not a realistic option for next year is price. The better Stralman plays, the higher his price will be. He may command double his current 900k on the open market. He may command more. Warped theory suggests that the Rangers want to hope they can’t afford him next year because it’ll mean he’s played well enough to command a raise.

The thing is, while the actual $$/sum for Stralman may not be prohibitive the Rangers likely won’t want to invest too much more money in the defensive part of the roster, especially with new deals (AKA raises) on the horizon for Del Zotto and McDonagh. With significant salaries already tied into Staal and Girardi, and the aforementioned raises on the blue line due, the more realistic options are a cheap contract like Eminger or a prospect like Bickel.

The best case scenario for Rangers fans is Stralman plays out an impressive season and earns himself a good contract in the NHL; maybe with the Rangers, probably not. Here’s hoping both the Rangers and the fans enjoy this very public audition. It’s in everyone’s interests it keeps going well.

Marc Staal Cleared For Contact

The big news out of practice today is that Marc Staal, out all year with post-concussion symptoms, was cleared for full contact. The news on Staal is great news, but also not all that surprising. He had been making serious progress in his recovery, and had been traveling with the team and practice –in a yellow non contact jersey– for a few weeks now.

With Staal cleared for contact, his timetable for a return is now measured in days, not weeks. Considering the state of the blue line, Staal may be back sooner rather than later.