Why the Rangers Need To Cut Loose Wolski

The Rangers need to get rid of Wojtek Wolski one way or the other. His presence may not be that of a locker room cancer but his salary, tantalising ability and mere presence make him a distraction and a temptation for the coaching staff.

Wolski clearly cannot play consistently in Tortorella’s system. A few good shifts here and there are simply not enough for someone with his skill set and contract. Erik Christensen is in a similar position to Wolski but doesn’t possess the same cap issues that Wolski does. Christensen’s ability, but above all his cap hit, are what give him a regular stay of execution. Wolski doesn’t have that luxury.

If the Rangers don’t intend (and nor should they at this stage) to give Wolski an extended run in the side – in a position that befits his skill set – then they should look elsewhere within the organisation. Wolski clearly doesn’t have a future in the organisation so it would make sense to have a guy like Christensen be the extra man and perhaps audition players like Zuccarello and Audy-Marchessault who have been excelling in the minors and who may, or may not have a future with the big club.

The Rangers can afford to try out a few players on the roster because of their record, because of the quality goaltending and defense keeping them in practically every game and because many players aren’t making themselves indispensible up front.

If Zuccarello finally fails to convince he has a Rangers future or Audy-Marchessault looks more minor league than major league then by ridding themselves of Wolski it at least gives the club manoeuvrability within the salary cap. Whether they can get something in return for him (unlikely at this stage) or by demotion or releasing him, the Rangers need to let go of Wolski for a variety of reasons.

Zuccarello Healthy; Can He Help Rangers Offense?

Amid the Rangers stumbling offense and the awful nine game losing streak the Whale find themselves in down in the AHL, perhaps unnoticed to many, is the pending return of Mats Zuccarello. Many have given up on the small Norwegian and depth has certainly helped pushed him back in to the AHL, but his talent and skill have never been doubted.

It just so happens that the Hobbit’s game doesn’t fit a checking style and he needs to be in a scoring role, but if the Rangers continue to be (at best) inconsistent offensively an opening could appear. So, should the undersized winger make a strong impression in the next week or so, could he become a candidate to help kick start the Rangers offense?

The skilled winger could have some success if paired with a passer like Richards and a hard hustling winger like Callahan, however, Zuccarello may not be able to influence his own future regardless of how impressive his AHL return is. There are players already in New York (Dubinsky, Anisimov, Richards among others) who, if they raise their game, would render the Zuccarello scenario moot. However, so long as the Rangers offense – and power play- remain underwhelming Zuccarello may be able to force himself back in to the equation.

Zuccarello shouldn’t be lacking for motivation. With his all star appearance in the AHL this weekend to look forward to ‘Zuke’ also knows that from the minute he gets back on to the ice, he’s playing for his Rangers and perhaps NHL future. He needs to show progress, desire and above all, production.

Can Zuccarello force himself back in to the equation? If he can show that he can play without the puck yes. If he can control and be effective on the powerplay for the Whale, yes. If Boyle, Dubinsky, Anisimov and (insert underwhelming forward’s name here) continue to shoot blanks, yes. There’s certainly an opportunity there for Zuccarello if he can make a quick impact in the AHL, but it goes without saying he’s running out of time.

Could the Whale and Rangers Both Make Noise?

With potential reinforcements on the way from a multitude of levels the Whale could look quite stacked come regular season’s end and entering the playoffs. The potential for the Whale to win their second Calder Cup is realistic with a bit of luck. Why? Look at the possible line up.

Amid fresh rumours of Sean Avery having another chance at the NHL level the fact remains he’s still a Whale player and according to Glen Sather that won’t change soon. Sean Avery is still an NHL player in terms of ability so over the course of his stay with the Whale it’s fair to expect results.

With his fresh ‘demotion’, one has to assume Erik Christensen can make a solid impact in his conditioning assignment with the Whale and that should help them really strengthen themselves during the regular season. Like Avery, Christensen is an NHL player playing a level below, again one would expect solid results at the AHL level.

Then you have the numbers game that is playing out on the New York defense. While the demoted player may not make it down because of waivers, there is a good chance that the Whale will get one of Stu Bickel, Steve Eminger or Jeff Woywitka to use at some point this season. If (when) Mike Sauer gets healthy the Rangers won’t leave multiple defensemen wasting away in the press box and conditioning stints or demotions become a real possibility. Right now, any of these three – who have all made solid contributions at the NHL level this year – would improve the Whale.

There’s more to come. Looking at the Rangers prospects playing in junior there remains a chance the Whale get reinforcements through this route too. Christian Thomas has improved as the year has progressed (37 points in 29 games) but his Oshawa Generals are outside the playoffs right now and stuck in neutral. A much anticipated prospect, Thomas may find himself with the Whale earlier than he may have hoped this season.

Another junior candidate that could help the Whale and taste pro hockey this year is Shane McColgan whose Kelowna team are close to the playoff cut off line. While they are ‘in’ right now, other teams have games in hand and with a losing record, there’s no guarantee the Rockets can string together enough good performances to stay in the playoff spots.

Perhaps a positive sign for the way Rangers prospect development is trending in recent times is how so many players are currently playing on strong clubs. Mike St Croix, Dylan McIlrath, JT Miller and the Peterborough Petes’ Andrew Yogan and Peter Ceresnak are all battling for top spots in their respective leagues’ conferences. These players, like Chris Kreider with Boston College are unlikely to see time in the AHL because it’s likely some, if not all, could have deep playoff runs at their respective levels.

Meanwhile, the Whale may soon get a player back who is both a former Ranger as well as Ranger hopeful. Chad Kolarik is slowly working his way back to full health and could be a factor this season. Last year, through strong play in Connecticut Kolarik forced his way in to four games for the Rangers (one assist). Should the Whale be able to call on him and the aforementioned list of talented young players, they would have a very deep and talented squad to ice. There’s even still a slight chance of Wojtek Wolski making his way to the Whale at some point too. Not often an AHL club gets to ice a former 60 point NHL player.

It’s early to tell what the Whale will look like come playoff time and with the NHL trade deadline still approaching there’s certainly a lot of moving parts to consider but with a team consisting of established AHL’ers such as Kris Newbury, Mats Zuccarello, Pavel Valentenko and fast developing Jonathan Audy-Marchessault not to mention players such as Brendan Bell, Tim Erixon, Wade Redden and Chad Johnson, adding any combination of the aforementioned prospects and NHL pros makes this a promising campaign the tier below New York. Two Cups in one year? Why not.

Zuccarello, Audy-Marchessault Headed To AHL All Star Game

JONATHAN AUDY-MARCHESSAULT AND MATS ZUCCARELLO HEADED TO AHL ALL-STAR CLASSIC
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Whale Forwards will Suit up for Eastern Conference Team January 29 and 30 in Atlantic City

HARTFORD, January 4, 2012:  The American Hockey League announced today that Connecticut Whale forwards Jonathan Audy-Marchessault and Mats Zuccarello have been named to the Eastern Conference team for the 2012 AHL All-Star Classic January 29 and 30 in Atlantic City, NJ.

The Eastern and Western Conference All-Star Classic rosters were selected by committees of AHL coaches.

Audy-Marchessault ranks second on the Whale club in points and goals, and tied for second among AHL rookies in points, with 12 goals and 18 assists for 30 points in 34 games.  A 21-year-old native of Cap-Rouge, Quebec, Audy-Marchessault signed an AHL contract with the Whale June 23, 2011, after a four-year career with the Quebec Remparts of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, in which the 5-9, 175-pounder totaled 98 goals and 141 assists for 239 points in 254 games.

Zuccarello, a native of Oslo, Norway who is in his second North American pro season, is tied for third among Whale skaters in points, with eight goals and 14 assists for 22 points, despite having played in only 18 of Connecticut’s 34 games.  The 24-year-old, 5-7, 174-pound Zuccarello has also skated in three games with the parent New York Rangers this season, going scoreless with two penalty minutes.

Signed as a free agent by the Rangers May 26, 2010, Zuccarello spent 42 games with New York last season, amassing six goals and 17 assists for 23 points.  In 36 AHL games with the Whale/Hartford Wolf Pack in 2010-11, Zuccarello contributed 13 goals and 16 assists for 29 points.

The 2012 AHL All-Star Classic will feature the top young talent in the American Hockey League competing in an internationally televised showcase from historic Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.  The 2012 AHL All-Star Skills Competition will take place Sunday, January 29, starting at 3:00 PM, and the 2012 AHL All-Star Game will face off at 7:00 PM on Monday, January 30.  AHL All-Star Classic tickets, which include both the Skills Competition and the All-Star Game, are on sale now at the Boardwalk Hall box office, all Ticketmaster locations, by calling (800) 736-1420 or at www.ticketmaster.com. Tickets are also available for the Post-Skills Party (January 29, 5:30 p.m.) and the 2012 AHL Hall of Fame Induction & Awards Ceremony (January 30, 11 a.m.) at Caesars Atlantic City.

Forgotten Man

We’ve seen the Rangers turn to the farm a lot this season. Mostly out of necessity in regard to injury but at times for some fresh impetus. What we haven’t seen is Mats Zuccarello make his way back to the big team. We’re talking about a supremely skilled and intelligent hockey player who is simply on the wrong club at the wrong time.

There doesn’t appear to be a fit for the talented Norwegian in New York, not now and not this season. All of which leads to the question of whether Zuccarello ever plays for the Rangers again. Right now, it’s doubtful.

Everyone knows the hockey term ‘tweener’. When a player is a top calibre AHL player but struggles to gain a foothold, make an impression, at the NHL level. Zuccarello is a better player than that. He’s an NHL quality player; he simply doesn’t fit in the current Rangers line up. He needs to be played in an offensive role and there simply isn’t one available.

Barring a disaster, the trio of Stepan-Anisimov-Gaborik isn’t getting broken up any time soon while Brad Richards seems to have found a home with Callahan and the club appear determined to re-establish Dubinsky in the top six (as they should). This leaves offensive scraps; something Zuccarello can’t live off. He’s not the type who can dump and chase with the Rupp’s and Prust’s of this world.

All of this makes Mats Zuccarello the forgotten man of this highly successful New York Rangers season. With 22 points in 18 games for the Whale this year, ‘Zuke’ is a go-to offensive player at that level. It’s a level he’ll be stuck at all season. With the Rangers having Sean Avery and Erik Christensen on the sidelines ready to play and Wojtek Wolski eventually returning Zuccarello has three NHL’ers in front of him without evening considering the merits of others in Connecticut.

Does Zuccarello have an NHL future? He’s more talented than P.A. Parenteau, a similar smaller type forward who struggled with the Rangers but who is carving out a solid NHL career with the Islanders so there’s plenty of hope. Zuccarello, assuming he wants to stay in North America after this season, needs to use the rest of the season as an audition process. Play lights out for the Whale and remind other NHL franchises what many thought of him when the Rangers won the race to sign him in the first place.

Revisiting The Mats Zuccarello Situation

When the Rangers made the decision to call up Carl Hagelin and John Mitchell last week, they were doing so for two reasons: they needed to address a need in the lineup (speed) and to try and shake things up a bit after a stale two games. Out of the lineup was Erik Christensen, and into the lineup were Hagelin and Mitchell, and both have held their own thus far.

What the Rangers also did was bypass Mats Zuccarello for a potential call up. Many will point to the salary cap as a reason why he was not called up, and yes that was a concern. However that is not as big of a concern as many are making it out to be. With Marc Staal, Wojtek Wolski, and Mike Rupp all on LTIR, the Rangers actually have $3 million in LTIR space available to them. This means that Zuccarello could have been a call up.

It looks like the Rangers have reached the proverbial “breaking point” with Zuccarello. That’s not to say that he is angering the organization, because it doesn’t appear that he is. It is just a point reached with players that the organization has realized he may not have a future with the club. It happened with Dane Byers. It happened with Dale Weise, it happened with Brodie Dupont. It looks like it has happened with Mats Zuccarello as well.

Zuccarello is not a bottom line player. In today’s NHL, he needs to be on the top nine forwards, preferably top six, to be an effective NHL player. Currently those spots are all occupied, both short term and long term (think: Hagelin, Kreider). There is not a single player in the lineup on the top six forwards that will be moved to make room for Zuccarello. On the third line, you can make a case for Ruslan Fedotenko or Sean Avery being switched out, and with good reason.

Thing is, both guys are done at the end of the year, and likely will not return. So, the Rangers are in the process of planning for the long term, and seeing what other players they have in the organization. They’ve seen Zuccarello. They saw him last year at both levels. Now it’s Carl Hagelin’s turn. Hagelin was tearing up the AHL, he earned his call up. Does Zuccarello’s AHL play make him a potential call up? Of course, but he’s a known entity within the organization. Hagelin is not.

What matters is that by no fault of his own –or of that of the coaching staff– Zuccarello may have simply been passed by players both on the roster and on the depth chart. The spot on the third line was his. He was given it, and he lost it. He looked lost, plain and simple. Now he has to get it back, or look for a fresh start. The kid has tremendous skill, but it doesn’t look like he has a future with this team.

Sauer In, Woywitka Out; Zuccarello Injured?

The big news from this morning is that defenseman Mike Sauer will in fact be in the lineup tonight for the New York Rangers after missing the the majority of the first seven games with a sprained shoulder. That means tha Jeff Woywitka will be the healthy scratch. In other injury news, it looks like Mike Rupp might miss tonight’s home opener with a nagging knee injury. That won’t effect the lineup too much though, if the lines below (per Katie Strang of ESPN NY) are what coach John Tortorella sticks with:

Ruslan Fedotenko-Brad Richards-Marian Gaborik
Brandon Dubinsky-Derek Stepan-Ryan Callahan
Wojtek Wolski-Brian Boyle-Brandon Prust
Erik Christensen-Artem Anisimov-Mike Rupp/Kris Newbury

It looks like one of Rupp or Newbury will be the healthy scratch against the Leafs tonight, depending on Rupp’s status. The Leafs are a tough team off to a hot start, and they are always very physical against the Rangers. The assumption with leaving Christensen in the lineup in lieu of some added toughness is to provide Anisimov with some semblance of skill on his line. Either way, it will be interesting to see how Fedotenko plays with the Richards/Gaborik connection, and how long he lasts on that top line. Expect some line juggling tonight if these don’t mesh.

In some AHL news, The New York Rangers Blog has picked up on a Norwegian website claiming that Mats Zuccarello has suffered a concussion as a result of the cheap Adam Mair hit. It is unknown how long he will be out, or the validity of the article itself. So, take it for what it’s worth.

Trade Zuccarello?

Mats Zuccarello has a lot of talent, an abundance of skill and plenty of vision, but until he strings a few quality performances together at the NHL level doubts will remain about his ability to stick in the big league. Given the prospects coming up through the system, Zuccarello is in danger of becoming increasingly irrelevant in New York.

Regardless of whether you think Zuccarello has been given a fair shot this season, the fact is Carl Hagelin has had such a strong start in the AHL this year, as has Kreider in college, and both JT Miller and Christian Thomas are proving their ability in junior. For these reasons, Zuccarello is not a necessity going forward for the Rangers.

What IS a necessity for the Rangers is health and depth. Would you package Zuccarello for a short term fix on the blueline? Would you package the Norwegian, a pick and a roster player to make the Rangers one of the deepest defensive teams in the league? If the Rangers could get a player such as Ryan Suter (as mooted by the New York Post) the Rangers would become infinitely stronger.

Assuming Staal comes back this season (not a given) adding a player of Suter’s ability gives the Rangers a jaw dropping top four and it would mean a player such as Mike Sauer dropping to the bottom pair. It’d mean a player such as Tim Erixon playing in the AHL, which wouldn’t be a terrible thing as he’d play big minutes down there.

However the point here is this; Mats Zuccarello is a diminishing asset. He’s ripping up the AHL upon arriving there this weekend, but hasn’t been able to do it in the NHL consistently.

Zuccarello would (at this stage) still be an appealing trade piece for several teams thanks to a small sample size, natural ability and his international play still relatively fresh in the mind. It’s in the Rangers interest to check out what he could fetch. If that is part of a bigger deal to address immediate roster needs then so be it.

Mats Zuccarello Sent to Connecticut; Kris Newbury Called Up

Following the New York Rangers 4-2 loss against the New York Islanders last night, the Blueshirts made two roster moves that are likely to shake things up among the fanbase and with the team. Mats Zuccarello was sent to the CT Whale, and Kris Newbury was called up to the NHL. Zuccarello had seen less than ten minutes of ice time in each of the first three games, and did not seem to impress the coaching staff (thus not earning more time).  Meanwhile, Newbury has been the Whale’s best player through their first few games, and has certainly earned a call up.

Zuccarello’s waiver status gave him a short leash, so it is not surprising that he was sent down so quickly. Having played three games this season, Zuccarello had just 15 games remaining before he would have to clear waivers. Newbury will need to clear re-entry waivers before joining the Rangers, per article 50.9 of the CBA, whereby any player requiring regular waivers needs to clear re-entry waivers. If my understanding of that clause is unclear, then I believe he still needs to clear because he makes more than $95,000 in the AHL ($250,000), again per article 50.9 of the CBA. 

Newbury does not need re-entry waivers, as he did not spend 40 games on an NHL roster last season.

Mats Zuccarello Has Struggled, But Why?

Mats Zuccarello was easily one of the New York Rangers top performers in the preseason, especially while playing against the European teams. But his play against NHL competition this year, although it has only been two games, has left people wanting more. In fact, he has played so poorly that coach John Tortorella has relegated him to fourth line duties with Erik Christensen and Mike Rupp. Considering he earned his spot on the roster, this is a pretty big drop for so early in the season.

First things first, it was clear that Zuccarello excelled in the Euro games. This may have been due to the larger ice surface, giving him more room to maneuver. It is more likely that his improved play was because the Euro style is a less physical style of play. Zuccarello wasn’t bumped or checked as much as he would have been against NHL opponents, and due to this was given a little more time to operate. That, of course, is circumstantial and very difficult to really prove.

Of course, when using the “eye” test, it is really difficult to quantify what you see. I am in the belief that Mats Zuccarello is but a stopgap for the Rangers. As Suit so eloquently put it, he has seemed to lack that “elusiveness” that smaller skill players need to be successful. Martin St. Louis has that elusiveness, and it’s what makes him so effective. No one can get to him. Zuccarello has yet to develop that elusiveness, and it is no guarantee that he does (or doesn’t). But you see, that is why some very nice people invented advanced metrics, because the “eye” test is deceiving.

Looking at last year’s metrics, Zuccarello’s overall GVT (5.3) was right in the middle of the pack for the Rangers forwards (minimum of 30 games played). When isolating just his offensive GVT (eliminating his shootout GVT), he falls to the pack of the pack with a 2.0 GVT, ahead of just Ruslan Fedotenko (1.6), Brandon Prust (1.4), Sean Avery (1.3), and Alex Frolov (1.1). His GVT becomes less impressive, as his shootout prowess seems to be the reason why he was so high in GVT to begin with. After all, Zuccarello did lead the team in SGVT (2.3).

Side note: Frolov really only had a 1.1 GVT last season? Fail.

GVT though, is a counting stat, and since Zuccarello only played 42 games, we can more or less double these numbers to get an effective Zuccarello GVT projection for 82 games (10.6 GVT, of which 4.6 is SGVT and 4.0 is OGVT). Essentially, Zuccarello is supposed to be an offensive force, capable of holding his own in the game, and then give the Rangers an advantage in the shootout. Converting this to PVT (points in the standings), Zuccarello is essentially worth extra three points in the standings. This is an example where what I see with my eyes disagrees with the metrics. Numbers don’t lie, they just don’t agree with you. Tough pill for me to swallow right there.

But, GVT isn’t everything. So we can dig a little deeper into offensive zone starts, Corsi (number of shots directed at his net, whether they are blocked, missed, saved, or goals), and QUALCOMP. Using the same minimum of 30 games played, his OZone start of 67.1% was tops on the team, meaning that for 67% of his shifts, he started in the offensive zone. He also ended in the offensive zone on 58% of his shifts. The high OZone start percentage is not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s not necessarily a good thing either. That said, the 58% of his shifts ending in the offensive zone is pretty impressive.

His QUALCOMP was middle of the pack at -.024, tied with Marian Gaborik for 7th among the forwards. His Corsi is actually pretty good (assuming I’m reading this right), and his 17.8 relative Corsi means that for the duration of the 2010-2011 season, Zuccarello’s shifts led to roughly 18 more shots being directed at his opponent’s net than his net. That bit also surprised me.

Long story short here, his advanced metrics show that Zuccarello should excel over the long haul. So, to answer the thread title: Zuccarello is struggling because he appears to just be in a rut. I say appears here because the analysis above is based solely off of one season, and is a very small sample size to really judge what Zuccarello is truly capable of. So, to all the Zuccarello lovers, be patient, the metrics show a progression back to his “career average”, which again, is just one year of numbers.

Note: These metrics are subject to the flaws of small sample sizes. It’s tough to quantify what Zuccarello can do by only judging one season.