Trade Zuccarello?

Mats Zuccarello has a lot of talent, an abundance of skill and plenty of vision, but until he strings a few quality performances together at the NHL level doubts will remain about his ability to stick in the big league. Given the prospects coming up through the system, Zuccarello is in danger of becoming increasingly irrelevant in New York.

Regardless of whether you think Zuccarello has been given a fair shot this season, the fact is Carl Hagelin has had such a strong start in the AHL this year, as has Kreider in college, and both JT Miller and Christian Thomas are proving their ability in junior. For these reasons, Zuccarello is not a necessity going forward for the Rangers.

What IS a necessity for the Rangers is health and depth. Would you package Zuccarello for a short term fix on the blueline? Would you package the Norwegian, a pick and a roster player to make the Rangers one of the deepest defensive teams in the league? If the Rangers could get a player such as Ryan Suter (as mooted by the New York Post) the Rangers would become infinitely stronger.

Assuming Staal comes back this season (not a given) adding a player of Suter’s ability gives the Rangers a jaw dropping top four and it would mean a player such as Mike Sauer dropping to the bottom pair. It’d mean a player such as Tim Erixon playing in the AHL, which wouldn’t be a terrible thing as he’d play big minutes down there.

However the point here is this; Mats Zuccarello is a diminishing asset. He’s ripping up the AHL upon arriving there this weekend, but hasn’t been able to do it in the NHL consistently.

Zuccarello would (at this stage) still be an appealing trade piece for several teams thanks to a small sample size, natural ability and his international play still relatively fresh in the mind. It’s in the Rangers interest to check out what he could fetch. If that is part of a bigger deal to address immediate roster needs then so be it.

Mats Zuccarello Sent to Connecticut; Kris Newbury Called Up

Following the New York Rangers 4-2 loss against the New York Islanders last night, the Blueshirts made two roster moves that are likely to shake things up among the fanbase and with the team. Mats Zuccarello was sent to the CT Whale, and Kris Newbury was called up to the NHL. Zuccarello had seen less than ten minutes of ice time in each of the first three games, and did not seem to impress the coaching staff (thus not earning more time).  Meanwhile, Newbury has been the Whale’s best player through their first few games, and has certainly earned a call up.

Zuccarello’s waiver status gave him a short leash, so it is not surprising that he was sent down so quickly. Having played three games this season, Zuccarello had just 15 games remaining before he would have to clear waivers. Newbury will need to clear re-entry waivers before joining the Rangers, per article 50.9 of the CBA, whereby any player requiring regular waivers needs to clear re-entry waivers. If my understanding of that clause is unclear, then I believe he still needs to clear because he makes more than $95,000 in the AHL ($250,000), again per article 50.9 of the CBA. 

Newbury does not need re-entry waivers, as he did not spend 40 games on an NHL roster last season.

Mats Zuccarello Has Struggled, But Why?

Mats Zuccarello was easily one of the New York Rangers top performers in the preseason, especially while playing against the European teams. But his play against NHL competition this year, although it has only been two games, has left people wanting more. In fact, he has played so poorly that coach John Tortorella has relegated him to fourth line duties with Erik Christensen and Mike Rupp. Considering he earned his spot on the roster, this is a pretty big drop for so early in the season.

First things first, it was clear that Zuccarello excelled in the Euro games. This may have been due to the larger ice surface, giving him more room to maneuver. It is more likely that his improved play was because the Euro style is a less physical style of play. Zuccarello wasn’t bumped or checked as much as he would have been against NHL opponents, and due to this was given a little more time to operate. That, of course, is circumstantial and very difficult to really prove.

Of course, when using the “eye” test, it is really difficult to quantify what you see. I am in the belief that Mats Zuccarello is but a stopgap for the Rangers. As Suit so eloquently put it, he has seemed to lack that “elusiveness” that smaller skill players need to be successful. Martin St. Louis has that elusiveness, and it’s what makes him so effective. No one can get to him. Zuccarello has yet to develop that elusiveness, and it is no guarantee that he does (or doesn’t). But you see, that is why some very nice people invented advanced metrics, because the “eye” test is deceiving.

Looking at last year’s metrics, Zuccarello’s overall GVT (5.3) was right in the middle of the pack for the Rangers forwards (minimum of 30 games played). When isolating just his offensive GVT (eliminating his shootout GVT), he falls to the pack of the pack with a 2.0 GVT, ahead of just Ruslan Fedotenko (1.6), Brandon Prust (1.4), Sean Avery (1.3), and Alex Frolov (1.1). His GVT becomes less impressive, as his shootout prowess seems to be the reason why he was so high in GVT to begin with. After all, Zuccarello did lead the team in SGVT (2.3).

Side note: Frolov really only had a 1.1 GVT last season? Fail.

GVT though, is a counting stat, and since Zuccarello only played 42 games, we can more or less double these numbers to get an effective Zuccarello GVT projection for 82 games (10.6 GVT, of which 4.6 is SGVT and 4.0 is OGVT). Essentially, Zuccarello is supposed to be an offensive force, capable of holding his own in the game, and then give the Rangers an advantage in the shootout. Converting this to PVT (points in the standings), Zuccarello is essentially worth extra three points in the standings. This is an example where what I see with my eyes disagrees with the metrics. Numbers don’t lie, they just don’t agree with you. Tough pill for me to swallow right there.

But, GVT isn’t everything. So we can dig a little deeper into offensive zone starts, Corsi (number of shots directed at his net, whether they are blocked, missed, saved, or goals), and QUALCOMP. Using the same minimum of 30 games played, his OZone start of 67.1% was tops on the team, meaning that for 67% of his shifts, he started in the offensive zone. He also ended in the offensive zone on 58% of his shifts. The high OZone start percentage is not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s not necessarily a good thing either. That said, the 58% of his shifts ending in the offensive zone is pretty impressive.

His QUALCOMP was middle of the pack at -.024, tied with Marian Gaborik for 7th among the forwards. His Corsi is actually pretty good (assuming I’m reading this right), and his 17.8 relative Corsi means that for the duration of the 2010-2011 season, Zuccarello’s shifts led to roughly 18 more shots being directed at his opponent’s net than his net. That bit also surprised me.

Long story short here, his advanced metrics show that Zuccarello should excel over the long haul. So, to answer the thread title: Zuccarello is struggling because he appears to just be in a rut. I say appears here because the analysis above is based solely off of one season, and is a very small sample size to really judge what Zuccarello is truly capable of. So, to all the Zuccarello lovers, be patient, the metrics show a progression back to his “career average”, which again, is just one year of numbers.

Note: These metrics are subject to the flaws of small sample sizes. It’s tough to quantify what Zuccarello can do by only judging one season.

Zuccarello’s Waiver Status Is Also A Concern

Following up on the discussion yesterday about Michael Del Zotto’s waiver status, another player that is going to have waiver issues soon is none other than Mats Zuccarello.  Much like Del Zotto, Zuccarello has a limited window on his waiver eligibility.  The unfortunate part with Zuccarello is that his window is much shorter than Del Zotto’s, infact it’s almost half the length at just 18 games.  After Zuccarello plays his 18th NHL game, he will no longer be exempt from waivers.

This poses the same issue that Del Zotto’s waiver status poses, should Zuccarello falter halfway through the season, he can no longer be sent to the AHL.  It is also a guarantee that he would be claimed, as he has a lot of skill.  Zuccarello’s problem is that his adjustments to the North American game haven’t caught up to his skill yet.  When/If they do, he could be a dangerous player.

What does work in the Rangers favor is that they have a lot of extra forwards that can step in for Zuccarello should he miss the cut out of camp.  Remember, it’s John Tortorella, he will give Zuccarello every possible shot to make the team.  But, if he does not force his way on the team, he could find himself in the AHL working out the kinks instead of in the NHL working out the kinks.

Zuccarello is another player who the Rangers are going to have to tread carefully with.  He will not only have to force his way on to the roster, but he will have a short leash when it comes to struggles.  When 18 games rolls around, he’s either skating or a healthy scratch.  Zuccarello won’t benefit from being Prucha’d, so it’s do-or-die in the first 17 games for The Hobbit.

What to do With Mats Zuccarello?

There’s no doubting the talent the little Norwegian winger possesses, but there’s a legitimate question to be asked about Mats Zuccarello’s future with the Rangers. Does he even have one?

Last season Zuccarello made a pretty solid first impression, but the grind of the longest season of his young career clearly showed as the season progressed. He was deservedly sent back down to the Whale towards the end of the season. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a productive rookie season, as he made his presence felt at both the AHL and NHL levels. However, there’s a very good chance that Zuccarello could be one of the forwards lost in the shuffle during training camp and therefore he could find himself starting the season back with the Whale.

One trail of thought is this. Don’t forget hockey these days is not just a sport, but a business and the more effective general managers are in the business of asset management. If Zuccarello is in the AHL beyond October, should Glen Sather look to move the winger? After all, the longer the talented winger remains on the farm the more this particular asset diminishes. Also, Zuccarello is entering the final year of his first Rangers contract. If Zuccarello doesn’t see a legitimate future for himself in New York does he even consider re-upping with the Rangers? Maybe returning to the SEL becomes a realistic scenario?

Zuccarello is kind of in an awkward situation. Within the next 12 months the Rangers have a few very talented young wingers close to being ready. Chris Kreider and Christian Thomas to name just two could be very close to becoming Rangers this year, but they certainly will be close next year. There’s a legitimate risk for Zuccarello that he gets overtaken by the younger and cheaper options. Zuccarello needs to make an impact and stick in the NHL sooner rather than later.

The Zuke scenario is one that divides opinion. Is Zuccarello a better option for the current roster than Wolski, Christensen and/or Avery? Perhaps, but is a suitable spot open for him? Perhaps not. At what stage should/could the Rangers decide to move Zuccarello and can Zuccarello force himself into the Rangers plans permanently? I can’t imagine this situation ends with the Rangers letting the Norwegian simply walk away at the end of the season.

Another option, which The Suit brought up earlier this summer, is to try moving him to left wing. Doing so would likely help him along the boards, since he is currently playing “the off-wing,” which is often considered to be more difficult for undersized players. As Suit explained,

“Zukes is already at a disadvantage coming over from the larger rinks of the Swedish Elite League, where you have a week and a half to decide what to do with the puck. Here on North America rinks, no such luxury exists. So, not only is Zukes getting used to the pacing and physicality of NHL forechecking, but he also has to get used to receiving pucks along the board on his backhand, which is obviously more difficult than receiving pucks on your forehand. Add a 220-lb defensemen pressed up against you, and you’re talking a whole new skill set to learn.”

Interesting plan, but if it doesn’t work or if it’s not being considered, Zukes’ options might become very limited. It seems like it’s either Rangers or a trade for the little winger. We’ll know more in a few short weeks.

Christensen, Zuccarello Or Wolski?

Early yesterday, the guys at CapGeek tweeted that the Rangers have $527,000 in bonuses on this year’s cap, which is essentially an extra player at the league minimum.  With that, the Rangers have roughly $10.6 million in salary cap space to work with before they hit the $64.3 million salary cap ceiling.  There are a few kinks to work out, but the Rangers clearly have a logjam at forward.  When looking at the 14 forwards listed on CapGeek, there are three names that jump out at me as “a spare forward” for this season: Erik Christensen, Wojtek Wolski, and Mats Zuccarello.

Before you get all up in arms about listing Zuccarello there, read on, it will make sense.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Rangers need to dump a forward by either trade, buyout, or demotion.  Competition is good, especially for bottom six guys, but 14 forwards (including Dubinsky and Callahan) is just too many.  Sean Avery and his $1.9 million cap hit is untradeable, so that really eliminates the idea of moving him.  That really just leaves the trio mentioned above, and one of them is going to have to go.

Starting with Zuccarello, the simplest solution is to send him to the minors, where his $1.75 million cap hit is off the books.  That becomes a wash with the Erixon or Del Zotto contract, plus gives the Rangers extra room to add that seventh defenseman at around $1 million.  When all  is said and done in this scenario, the Rangers have 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and a little more than $1 million in cap space.

Moving on to Wolski and his $3.8 million salary ($466,667 and $667, 667  buyout price), he is the biggest enigma on this current Rangers team.  Wolski clearly has skill, but it’s just unfortunate that he picks and chooses when he wants to show it.  I truly believe he can shine on a line with Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik.  However, that is a lot of maybes to stick with someone making $3.8 million.  Especially when his buyout comes at 1/3 the price, not 2/3 the price.

Finally there’s Christensen, it’s easier to see why he would stick around, as his salary is 1/3 of Wolski’s and a little more than half of Zuccarello’s at $925,000.  My feelings on Christensen aside, I think that at his skill set and his price are a good fit for the fourth line on this club.  He is also extremely maddening to watch, but he wouldn’t be given a top line role with Richards in the fold.  I think he stays at this point.

So the Rangers have a choice to make between now and October 1, and it’s not an easy choice.  Much of this will depend on the final cap numbers for Dubinsky and Callahan, so don’t expect any decision on this front soon.  The only thing we can infer is that the Rangers will be sending one of Zuccarello, Wolski, or Christensen away.  I’d have to assume that Zuccarello starts the year in the AHL, and is the first call up for injury replacement.

Zuccarello Should Look To Left Wing For Answers

This September Zuccarello will be under the microscope of Front Office exes and fans alike thanks to potential replacements waiting in the wings (pun intended) like Chris Kreider, Christian Thomas, or Carl Hagelin. With Gaborik, Callahan, and possibly Prust all potentially ahead of Zukes on the right wing depth chart, one has to wonder if the Norwegian’s days are numbered.

To be fair, it doesn’t make much sense to play Zuccarello at RW on the 4th line (his landing spot towards the end of last season). Everyone knows fourth lines on Tortorella teams get virtually zero ice-time. It’s not a place for a young forward who you are trying to mold into a top 6 player.

So what does this mean for his future with the Rangers and the NHL?

While it’s too early to predict his path with the Blueshirts, I do think that he definitely has what it takes to succeed in the NHL. The media and the fans who buy their BS will tell you that he’s too small, or that he needs to gain weight, but that’s a lazy analysis.

Zuccarello isn’t too small for the Show, not for a forward anyway. There are currently around 15-20 players in the NHL that play at or below 5’8 and Zuccarello has better skills than most of them. He may not or ever be as quick as Gionta, Cammalleri, St. Louis, Briere, or Ennis, but he’s not a step behind Gerbe, Connor, Shannon, or Recchi either.

No, Zukes doesn’t need to bulk up or find the Zoltar machine at Rye Playland.

“I WISH I WERE BIG!”

But he may have to switch to the other side of the ice.

To me, Zuccarello’s struggles generally occur along the boards. This is mostly due to the fact that he is a left handed shot playing right wing. While playing the “off-wing” is good for scoring goals (remember the whole Kovy fiasco in NJ last season), it does make board play more difficult.

Zukes is already at a disadvantage coming over from the larger rinks of the Swedish Elite League, where you have a week and a half to decide what to do with the puck. Here on North America rinks, no such luxury exists.

So, not only is Zukes getting used to the pacing and physicality of NHL forechecking, but he also has to get used to receiving pucks along the board on his backhand, which is obviously more difficult than receiving pucks on your forehand. Add a 220-lb defensemen pressed up against you, and you’re talking a whole new skill set to learn.

Passing and cycling along the boards is where he needs to improve. If he wants to speed up the learning process, I say he take a shot at leftwing. Besides, other than Dubinsky, none of our other LW’s are locks for top scoring roles next season.

The Whale and Rangers Prospect Low-Down (Part One)

A lot of change is happening in the Rangers organisation. Many prospects are coming up through the organisation and developing; whether it be after their first year as a pro, promotion from the Canadian Junior Circuit (CHL) or leaving college to join the pro ranks. In most cases the prospects will taste the pro level for the first time with the Rangers main affiliate in Connecticut, the CT Whale.

Recently, Brian Ring and Bob Crawford from the CT Whale took time out of their busy schedules to discuss the Rangers prospects, the Whale organisation, and provide a unique insight into the potential next wave of Rangers. Answering numerous questions for the blog, we’ll have their answers in a few posts over the next week or so starting with the first few questions below. A big thanks to Brian and Bob for speaking with us. Happy reading!

Read more »

Zuccarello Fractures Hand; Practice Notes; Lundqvist Snubbed?

There’s a lot of little bits and pieces of news here and there in the Rangers world.  First, there are some Swedish reports saying that Mats Zuccarello fractured his hand while playing in the CT Whale’s playoff game last night (stick-tap to Nick Montemagno of Rangers Tribune for breaking this).  Zuccarello will miss the remainder of the season with the injury.  I asked Brian Ring (covers the CT Whale) about the injury, and while he could not directly answer, he did say that he did not expect Zuccarello to return this season. 

Second, at practice today, Andrew Gross is reporting that the Rangers have new lines (again) heading into Game 5.  Vinny Prospal is dropped to the fourth line, and Wojtek Wolski has been moved up to the third line:

Ruslan Fedotenko-Brandon Dubinsky-Marian Gaborik
Sean Avery-Brian Boyle-Brandon Prust
Wojtek Wolski-Artem Anisimov-Derek Stepan
Vinny Prospal-Erik Christensen-Chris Drury

Finally, Henrik Lundqvist was not named as a finalist for the Vezina trophy this season.  Lundqvist had another great year –which seems to be the norm for him– posting a 36-27-5 record with a 2.28 GAA and a .920 SV%.  Lundqvist also led the league in with 1 1 shutouts.  The three finalists are (likely winner) Tim Thomas of Boston, Pekka Rinne of Nashville, and Roberto Luongo of Vancouver.  Thomas’ numbers dictate that he will win the award, despite his mediocre second half of the season, as he posted a 35-11-9 record with a 2.00 GAA, a .938 SV%, and 9 shutouts.  Rinne had a stellar year as well, posting a 33-22-9 record, with a 2.12 GAA, a .930 SV%, and 6 shutouts.  Luongo had a great year with the President’s Trophy winning Canucks, posting a 38-15-7 record, with a 2.11 GAA and a .928 SV%.  Luongo only had 4 shutouts.

It’s a bit surprising to see that Lundqvist isn’t a finalist for the Vezina, but all three goalies who finished ahead of him had better numbers.  Voters are very number happy, and numbers means awards.  Unfortunately for Lundqvist, his consistency kills him, as the Vezina doesn’t award consistency, just single season dominance.  I would expect the voting to have Thomas winning, with Rinne finishing second and Luongo finishing third.

Zuccarello Returned to CT; Avery Stays In Lineup

As per the AHL Transaction Log, the Rangers have returned Mats Zuccarello to the Connecticut Whale of the AHL.  This is no real surprise, as Zuccarello seemed overmatched in Game One, and was a healthy scratch in the following two games.  Zuccarello is best served seeing consistent ice time in the AHL playoffs.  This serves two purposes for the young, diminutive winger.  First, he will get consistent minutes, close to 15 minutes per game with the CT Whale playing on a top line and a powerplay unit.  Second, he will gain invaluable playoff experience as the Whale are in contention for the Calder Cup following a late surge this season.

Zuccarello’s demotion means that Sean Avery will stay in the lineup until further notice.  Avery, who was the healthy scratch for Game One, has earned his playing time in the playoffs thus far.  He has played disciplined hockey, while adding a physical edge to the Rangers that is missing with the Ryan Callahan injury.  Avery is one of the fastest Ranger skaters that can match up physically against the Caps, while playing that grind-it-out game that the Rangers need to play to remain in this series.  Avery will need to be the Avery that we know and love in order for the Rangers to stand a chance.