Halfway There Report Card: The Defense

With the halfway point of the season upon us (for the most part), and the Rangers in first place, it’s as good of a time as any to begin with the mid-point report cards. We are going to do these in a series of posts, with Chris covering the top six forwards, Suit covering the bottom six forwards, Justin covering the goalies, and myself covering the defense.

The Rangers have used a whopping 11 defensemen since the season started. This is mostly due to the Marc Staal injury, but other injuries along the way have forced the Rangers’ hand. Despite the obvious disadvantage, the Rangers have allowed just 82 goals against, good for second in the league. The Bruins top this, but let’s be honest: The Bruins are in a class above everyone else right now.  Let’s get to those grades:

Marc Staal: He’s played just a handful of games. Everyone knows he’s the rock on defense, and the Rangers just upgraded tremendously with him coming back. Grade: INC.

Dan Girardi: With Staal out indefinitely, the blue line was put in Girardi’s hands…and boy did he deliver. Girardi has been flawless in his own end. He plays the most minutes in the entire league, he plays against top competition, he consistently shuts down that top opposition, he has been contributing offensively, and he has been a leader for this young Rangers team. Grade: A+.

Ryan McDonagh: Staal’s injury opened up a spot for McDonagh on the top pairing, and he has been sensational in that role. He and Girardi have clicked, and aside from a few poor games, McDonagh has been a monster. Rick Carpiniello of LoHud calls him McMonster, and that’s exactly what he is. Throw in his growing offensive skills, and this sophomore defenseman has been a tremendous pickup. Thank you Mr. Gomez. Grade: A.

Michael Del Zotto: Another player that was forced to play up a pairing due to injury, Del Zotto has also been phenomenal. He leads the defensemen in scoring, and is fifth on the team in that same category with 23 points (5-18-23). He leads the team in assists, plus/minus, fan girls, and haters. Seriously, what else does this kid need to do? Sure, he makes a bad pass every now and then, but he’s 22 years old. I’ll take this from a 22 year old any day. Grade: A.

Mike Sauer: Currently out with a concussion, Sauer was the rock on the blue line that most thought was the reason for Del Zotto’s re-emergence.  Although Del Zotto has succeeded without Sauer in the lineup, Sauer is still an integral part of the Rangers blue line. He doesn’t put up the fancy numbers that Del Zotto does, he doesn’t garner the All Star consideration that Girardi does, but he just does his job. The best thing you can say about a defensive defenseman is that you don’t notice him, and rarely does Sauer go noticed. Grade: A.

Steve Eminger: Eminger had an atrocious start to the year. He just couldn’t do anything right, and was a bit of a whipping boy ’round these parts. However, when Sauer went down with his concussion, Emmy stepped up. Much like last year with the Michal Rozsival injury, Eminger assumed top four minutes and played like a champ. His start hurts his grade, but he gets significant bonus points for his ability to play up to his role, no matter what. His injury was supposed to be the one that crippled the Rangers, who were already without Staal and Sauer, but it didn’t. Grade: B.

Jeff Woywitka:Serviceable, reliable, tough, and surprisingly reliable. Much like Eminger, Woywitka was a whipping boy here after his poor start to the season. However, unlike Eminger, he played better as he got used to the John Tortorella way of life, and has been a great bottom pairing guy since. Maybe he has received too much ice time because of injuries, but the Rangers sure haven’t noticed. Kudos to Woywitka for persevering, and earning his continued stay with the Blueshirts. Grade: B.

Anton Stralman: Signed as a free agent a few weeks into the season, no one knew what to expect from Stalman. After a few weeks with the team, it was clear that Tortorella wasn’t a big fan, a point confirmed on HBO’s 24/7 last week. However as he has played, he has grown into a player that is not only reliable, but someone that Tortorella can play top-four minutes without hesitation. Stralman has been paired with Del Zotto, and both have flourished. Martin Biron might be the best offseason acquisition in a while, but the signing of Stralman might be the most underappreciated. Grade: A-.

Stu Bickel: The last man cut from the blue line in the preseason, Bickel earned a call up following Eminger’s separated shoulder and Woywitka’s bruised foot forced the Rangers’ hand. Bickel has been a physical presence on the blue line that has rarely made a mistake. He’s still a rookie, and yes his mistakes have and will come, but the Rangers couldn’t have asked for more from him. With Sauer out, Bickel has replaced that physicality that was sorely missing. Grade: B+.

Tim Erixon: He played in the beginning of the year when Sauer was out, and most recently while Woywitka was out. It’s clear he’s still not ready for the big show, but he’s a promising young defenseman that has done many things right. He’s only played 13 games, but it’s apparent the Rangers have a serious NHL player on their hands. Grade: INC.

Brendan Bell: Played one game. Grade: INC.

*Here is Justin’s mid-season report for the goalies & Suit’s report for our bottom six forwards. Stay tuned for reports on our top 6 forwards and our coaches.

Changes Are Coming On The Blue Line

Not sure if you guys caught this, but Marc Staal returned to the lineup in dramatic fashion, just in time for the Winter Classic. Again, if you missed this, I don’t blame you, the news was sort of buried amidst the other Winter Classic hooplah.

All kidding aside, Staal’s return marked the 11th defenseman the Rangers have used this season. Stepping back, it really is remarkable how they are this good despite playing everyone except my mother on defense this season.

With Staal back in the lineup, the obvious scratch choice was Jeff Woywitka, and as expected, he was scratched for the Winter Classic. Woywitka, claimed off waivers, was essentially an insurance policy and a body to dress for games. In all fairness, he exceeded expectations and was extremely serviceable. He came in, adjusted to the new system, and played some steady third line minutes…with some hiccups of course.

Now with Mike Sauer looking like he is on the path to return –he skated with the team– the Rangers are going to need to find a place to insert him when he returns. The only realistic options for replacement are Anton Stralman and Stu Bickel, as none of Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, or Michael Del Zotto will be sitting any time soon.

Considering the current pairings, it is my guess that Bickel will be the one who sits for Sauer, when he returns. It’s nothing against the kid, who has played very well (again with some hiccups) in his call up, it’s just a numbers game. It makes more sense for Bickel to be returned to the AHL and get significant ice time than for him to sit around as the healthy scratch for weeks at a time. It is for that same reason that I expect Woywitka to stick around for a long time, at least until Steve Eminger heals.

The decisions about scratches and replacements are easy decisions. The decisions for defensive pairings however is a very tough choice. Does John Tortorella go back to his bread-and-butter pairing of Staal-Girardi? Does he leave Girardi with McDonagh and put Staal with Sauer? Does Del Zotto get matched back up with Sauer, leaving Staal to play with Stralman? These are questions that can only be answered by the coaching staff and by the players’ performance on the ice.

Personally, I would go back to ole reliable: Staal/Girardi, McDonagh/Sauer, MDZ/Stralman. That gives the Rangers two legitimate shut down pairings that also have some offensive upside, plus the surprisingly strong pairing of MDZ/Stralman to give the top four much needed rest. That leaves Eminger as the odd man out, but you would have to assume Stralman and Eminger would be rotating. Assuming those three pairings play the way that is expected and the way that they have all year, the Rangers have one of the deepest blue lines in the league.

The Rangers haven’t played a single game this season with a full strength blue line, yet they remain in first place in the conference. The Times They Are a-Changin’.

A Look At The NYR GVT/PVT Leaders

With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.

*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>

Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:

Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT

Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.

Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.

As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.

Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.

Analysis of the forwards after the jump

Rangers/Panthers Recap

In a game that could have been easily overlooked in the wake of the Winter Classic on Monday, the Rangers took it to the Panthers 4-1 in their final tune-up before heading to Philly.  After a rocky outing against the Caps, the Rangers bounced back and played a very smart game and grabbed a little momentum to take to Citizens Bank Park.  Onto the bullets…

• The name of the game tonight for New York was the executing the little things.  For the most part, they got the puck deep, threw pucks at the net and created havoc in the offensive zone.  Defensively, they used the boards well, blocked shots and didn’t give allow the forecheck to lure the play into the middle of the ice.
• Scott Clemmensen had a rough game tonight, but the Rangers’ goals weren’t of the soft variety.  They made quite a few great first passes out of the defensive zone that lead to quality offensive chances.  Jose Theodore played much better in relief, but at that point the game was pretty well in hand.
• Another solid defensive showing for this overachieving blue line.   The defense did a great job keeping pucks to the outside and although Hank was somewhat busy, most of the shots came from bad angles. Stralman in particular had a strong game, and although Stu Bickel has been a bit of a punching bag since his call up, he has played incredibly smart, simple defense.  McDonagh does look a bit tired to me, but continues to play well.  If Staal can come back at some point in the near future, McD can get his minutes back to a reasonable level and should be better rested for the stretch run this season.
• For all the (deserved) praise the GAS line has gotten so far this season, the newly formed Hagelin-Richards-Callahan trio has been just as impressive.  They were the best line on the ice tonight and have been getting better with each game.  Hagelin has a tremendous hockey IQ and his speed has been a weapon since day 1.  Each one of these guys has a completely different skill set, but they play off each other incredibly well.
• Continuing the theme, Michael Del Zotto is probably playing the best stretch of hockey I’ve ever seen out of him.  He is making the simple plays and not overextending himself.  He is playing physical and jumping into the offense at the correct times/places.   His continued development will be huge going forward and he is clearly playing with a lot of confidence and Torts is rewarding him with ice time in a variety of situations.
• Brandon Dubinsky quietly has 5 points in his past 5 games.  I’m not sure I’m completely sold that he has fully turned his season around, but it’s a huge step in the right direction.  His goal tonight was a fantastic individual effort.
• Nice to see Richards play a solid game after a couple of rough outings.
• Henrik Lundqvist.  Best goalie on the planet.
• I’m not sure what was more entertaining to me tonight; the Panthers growl or Tort’s tie (it looked like an early 80’s couch).

After months of anticipation, HBO cameras and uniform drama, the Winter Classic is finally here.  Hopefully the Rangers can stay focused and play their game.  Wouldn’t we all love to see Glen Sather’s press-conference declaration become a reality?

Stralman’s Short Stay

One of the more underrated aspects of the Rangers recent impressive stretch is Anton Stralman stepping up and playing solidly on the second pair. Increased minutes (17/game), sound defense (+9 rating) and a decent offensive game (5 assists in just 12 games); Stralman has helped ease the Rangers through a torrid stretch of injuries on their blue line. However, we probably shouldn’t get used to Stralman patrolling the Rangers blue line.

There’s a very good chance Stralman is auditioning for the rest of the NHL. The Rangers are pretty stacked on the blue line. With Marc Staal and Mike Sauer set to return and with Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh and Mike Del Zotto all core pieces of the blue line going forward there’s only really one spot left to fight over on the blue line with lots of candidates aiming for that spot six.

The also-impressive (surprising) Stu Bickel, Dylan McIlrath and Tim Erixon will all also be in the mix for the final spot next season. Steve Eminger and Jeff Woywitka (at this point in time) may also be considered, especially Eminger. Hopefully with Erixon getting big minutes in CT, he’ll be ready for a full time NHL role next season making competition at camp intense.

Stralman could be a viable candidate from the Rangers point of view. As we’ve said, he’s proven he can handle minutes and make plays at both ends of the ice but the main reason he’s probably not a realistic option for next year is price. The better Stralman plays, the higher his price will be. He may command double his current 900k on the open market. He may command more. Warped theory suggests that the Rangers want to hope they can’t afford him next year because it’ll mean he’s played well enough to command a raise.

The thing is, while the actual $$/sum for Stralman may not be prohibitive the Rangers likely won’t want to invest too much more money in the defensive part of the roster, especially with new deals (AKA raises) on the horizon for Del Zotto and McDonagh. With significant salaries already tied into Staal and Girardi, and the aforementioned raises on the blue line due, the more realistic options are a cheap contract like Eminger or a prospect like Bickel.

The best case scenario for Rangers fans is Stralman plays out an impressive season and earns himself a good contract in the NHL; maybe with the Rangers, probably not. Here’s hoping both the Rangers and the fans enjoy this very public audition. It’s in everyone’s interests it keeps going well.

All Star Worthy?

The Rangers deserve to have multiple representatives at this year’s All Star game. The fact that so many of the roster should be in contention speaks volumes for the way the Rangers have moved up through the standings and developed this season. So which Rangers players should represent the club? Who deserves the nod?

• Marian Gaborik. It goes without saying that when you lead the entire NHL in goals scored you’re doing something right. Gaborik is having a dominant season; scoring important goals, showing tremendous consistency and giving the Rangers an offensive game changer they lacked last season.
• Henrik Lundqvist. The King is doing what he does best. Like Gaborik he’s tremendously consistent, rarely has he given up a soft goal this year and has been the very backbone of the Rangers once again. Despite being on course to play considerably less games this year – thanks to Martin Biron – the Swedish netminder could be in the discussion for league MVP, such is his impact so far.
• Dan Girardi. The amount of time he spends on the ice is borderline insane – not far off a minute/game more than second in the league. Girardi blocks shots, provides the Rangers with immense stability and chips in offensively too. Not a ‘sexy’ player or a dominant offensive blueliner, guys like Girardi (unfortunately) rarely get the kudos of all star games even when they deserve the recognition. Critical to the Rangers.
• Mike Del Zotto. Yes, you read it – Mike Del Zotto. Especially in the past month he has been consistent, increasingly dangerous offensively, physically impressive and has shown great ability to swallow minutes all season. Del Zotto is the league’s leading blueliner in plus/minus and is one three point game away from being in the league’s top 10 in scoring from the blueline. Easily, the most improved Ranger this season.
• Ryan Callahan. Like Girardi and his ‘type’, rarely are the Ryan Callahan’s of the NHL rewarded with all star weekends. Amongst the league leaders in hits, and ice time amongst forwards Callahan has taken his offensive game to another level and is on course for his first 30 goal season. Maybe the best lead-by-example captain in the league today does any player try harder? Guys like Callahan deserve to be officially titled ‘all star’.

Gaborik and Lundqvist surely should get the call to head to Ottawa early next year. Anything other than invites for the Rangers marquee talents would be a travesty. Will any of the others get a call? Unfortunately Rangers players rarely get the exposure around the league due to the blue collar reputation the roster has.

It’s assumed this team does things by committee, which it does. However the above list proves that this team has serious skill and top end players too. All this and we’re forgetting a hot streak from Brad Richards and there could be another candidate. The 2011-12 Rangers, they’re pretty stacked you know.

Blueline Changes This Summer?

The Rangers blue line could look a lot different in the summer of 2012. There’s a chance that next season the Rangers will start six defensemen that have seen the ice this in New York season but don’t expect that six to include Steve Eminger, Anton Stralman and Jeff Woywitka.

All three journeyman pros have expiring contracts and are likely to be let go; at most one may be retained. Also with an expiring deal is Mike Del Zotto but barring something totally unexpected the talented youngster will get a new deal thanks to his rebound season, especially the way he is improving with each game this season.

Complicating what is beginning to look like an audition process for a depth spot on defense is the sudden emergence of Stu Bickel. It may be highly premature to call it an ‘emergence’ but Bickel has shown a willingness to scrap, has chipped in offensively, kept it simple and for the most part has stepped up and looked capable at the NHL level. With every additional game Bickel impresses and with the injuries to guys like Eminger it really does make it a four horse race for a contract next summer; and that is if one is kept at all at the NHL level.

With Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Mike Sauer, Ryan McDonagh and Mike Del Zotto all very much part of the Rangers, the sixth defenseman promises to be Tim Erixon. As well as his outstanding potential, in Erixon’s favour (assuming he is full time, NHL ready) is that, with Ryan McDonagh and Mike Sauer, all three represent cap bargains next season as Sauer is the most expensive in 12/13 at $1.25m. Despite an injury earlier this season Erixon has looked very good in the AHL for the Whale and is close to a point/game player on the farm.

So where is the change coming? In all likelihood the change is likely to be via the aforementioned subtractions rather than substantial additions however there does promise to be further talent challenging for NHL roster spots. Dylan McIlrath and Pavel Valentenko (assuming the club retain him) will look to break the roster while Mikhail Pashnin might be in the mix, coming over from the KHL.

The Rangers have a stack of young established NHL defensemen, a couple of almost NHL ready prospects and a couple of juniors in the pipeline. Whether they add or subtract from the big club this summer, it continues to look good on the back end for the Rangers.

Del Zotto Developing

Michael Del Zotto is ninth in the entire NHL in plus/minus. While many people don’t place much stock in the statistic (after all Marek Malik did lead the league in plus/minus one season) it does provide some indication how the young blue liner has begun to turn his game back around this season.

Del Zotto could have been forgiven for stalling in recent times when Mike Sauer was lost to injury and even before, as the Rangers blue line has had to accommodate journeymen pros such as Woywitka, Eminger and now Anton Stralman. However Del Zotto has continued to grow in confidence, more often than not make the smart play and above all begin to show some defensive consistency.

The dominant 6-1 victory over the Panthers on Sunday included a +4 evening from Del Zotto. Del Zotto impressed in the victory showing poise as he made smart plays in his own zone while he displayed a level of patience on the puck that wasn’t there even when he burst in to the league as a rookie. In short, Del Zotto is growing up.

What’s worth noting is that the extra emphasis and effort Del Zotto is putting in to his defensive game isn’t sacrificing his offensive instincts. Yes, the spectacular passes and rushes are less frequent but with solid play in his own zone and better decision making, the foundations are being set for the offense to be more impactful and less ad hoc. Simply put, Del Zotto is creating offense and being part of the offense in different ways than he was before.

The young blueliner is on course for 42 points which would eclipse his rookie efforts. The difference is that the rookie was a liability, this version is not. Del Zotto is playing the game more physically as evidenced by the 185 hits he is on course for this season. There’s not much the defenseman isn’t doing better this time around. With Sauer and Staal to return Del Zotto would likely slide down to the third pair in the short term but all that does is make the Rangers more dangerous.

If the Rangers can continue to nurture Del Zotto they could have the makings of an excellent offensive defenseman but one that may have an unexpected defensive ability. For sure, he’s far from a finished article and a quarter of a season’s solid play is not enough to declare Del Zotto a sure fire success but credit also has to be given with regard to how he has bounced back from a truly dreadful second year. All the failure, injuries, media criticism and demotion could have ruined him mentally but Del Zotto has shown a resolve to get back to the Rangers and make a positive impact.

What next? Del Zotto needs to work on his shot, and shot selection. It may be his ability to be a scoring threat himself that takes him to the next level. If penalty kills and opposing goaltenders don’t respect his shot and his ability to score then he may find his ceiling capped. If Del Zotto can become more accurate with his shot the Rangers could have a lethal power play; it’s not only Del Zotto personally that stands to benefit from his development.

Tangible Progress – Part One

I feel pretty qualified (even from afar) to be able to pass judgement on how the Rangers have progressed over the first, now almost third, of the season.  Why? Simple really. We all watch the games but I was there for games one and two in Sweden and I was there for arguably there two stiffest challenges to date against the Flyers and Penguins. In between there has been a lot of development if you ask me. So, without further delay let’s talk Rangers, but in stages. Today, we’ll discuss the kids on this team and how they have done.

What concerned me most prior to – and following – the two losses in Sweden was the depth in the defensive department and whether the lines – and personnel – could mesh in time after a completely disjointed preseason. Its one thing to beat middling European clubs (no disrespect) but it’s quite another to be ready for NHL play with a makeshift preparation.

I also had concerns about some of the young talent (legitimate talent) and whether they were ready or able to grab responsibility. Could this team get more scoring? Could this team compete with the more skilled teams in the league? Could this team progress to the next level?

To all the above concerns, they are concerns no more. I think we can all say with both hysteria and realism, that the Rangers have gone to a next level in their development, regardless of last night’s pretty ugly loss. The best part of it all is the results have been obvious on the eye. They have, as the title of this post suggests being tangible. So, what about the kids?

Read more »

Del Zotto Showing Last Year Was a Blip In His Development

When Michael Del Zotto entered the New York Rangers scene in 2009, he entered with a vengeance. Del Zotto had 12 points (4-8-12) in the first month of the season, of which eight of those points (3-5-8) came with the man advantage. Finally, the Rangers had a successor to Brian Leetch. Tom Poti tried and failed, Michal Rozsival tried and failed, and countless others tried and failed. Del Zotto, in October of 2009, was the Rangers “savior” to the anemic powerplay.

But then something else happened, Del Zotto scored 28 points throughout the rest of the season, of which 11 came in the final six weeks of the year. Between October and March, he only put up 17 points, and played abysmal defensive hockey. His -20 rating illustrated his defensive struggles to the point that he spent some time in February of 2010 in the AHL.

His stuggles continued in the 2010-2011 season, and Del Zotto was shipped to the AHL for the rest of the year in February, finishing with just 11 points in 47 games before his demotion. His play was atrocious, and he looked lost on the ice. The homerun passes that worked in Juniors no longer worked at the NHL level. He was making poor decisions with the puck, and seemed to have lost all confidence.

Now we look at Del Zotto and we see a defenseman renewed. He may not be lighting the world on fire on the scoreboard, but he is putting up respectable numbers (2-4-6 thus far, on pace for 27 points), and he is playing good defense, which is something that may be overlooked. Since being paired with Mike Sauer, Del Zotto’s game has really taken off. He looks better all around the ice, and it is likely because he has a safety net in the monster that is Sauer.

Where the numbers really show a difference is at even strength, where Del Zotto needed to work on his game. Del Zotto’s QUALCOMP is fourth on the team at -.106, which is where you expect him to be (Sauer, Dan Girardi, and Ryan McDonagh are ahead of him). His Relative Corsi of 7.8 shows that when he is on the ice, his teammates maintain possession of the puck, resulting in more shots at the opponents net than his own. He starts 47.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, but finishes 50.0% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Those zone start/finish percentages illustrate that although he is getting a good portion of his shifts to start in the offensive zone, he is finishing more of his shifts there than starting.

What does all this mean? It shows that when Del Zotto is out on the ice, the Rangers maintain possession of the puck in the offensive zone, and get shots directed at the opponent’s net. When starting in the defensive zone, the Rangers (with Del Zotto on the ice) are able to gain possession of the puck, and move it out of the zone and generate chances until the shift ends, generally in the offensive zone.

This all together shows progress, and a big step forward in regards to progress as well. There are still many on the Trade Del Zotto bandwagon (sigh), and many others who just don’t think he’s worth it (he’s 22, simma down). But in the grand scheme of things, progression is what is most important. Del Zotto has shown progression. What more do you want from him?