Del Zotto Showing Last Year Was a Blip In His Development

When Michael Del Zotto entered the New York Rangers scene in 2009, he entered with a vengeance. Del Zotto had 12 points (4-8-12) in the first month of the season, of which eight of those points (3-5-8) came with the man advantage. Finally, the Rangers had a successor to Brian Leetch. Tom Poti tried and failed, Michal Rozsival tried and failed, and countless others tried and failed. Del Zotto, in October of 2009, was the Rangers “savior” to the anemic powerplay.

But then something else happened, Del Zotto scored 28 points throughout the rest of the season, of which 11 came in the final six weeks of the year. Between October and March, he only put up 17 points, and played abysmal defensive hockey. His -20 rating illustrated his defensive struggles to the point that he spent some time in February of 2010 in the AHL.

His stuggles continued in the 2010-2011 season, and Del Zotto was shipped to the AHL for the rest of the year in February, finishing with just 11 points in 47 games before his demotion. His play was atrocious, and he looked lost on the ice. The homerun passes that worked in Juniors no longer worked at the NHL level. He was making poor decisions with the puck, and seemed to have lost all confidence.

Now we look at Del Zotto and we see a defenseman renewed. He may not be lighting the world on fire on the scoreboard, but he is putting up respectable numbers (2-4-6 thus far, on pace for 27 points), and he is playing good defense, which is something that may be overlooked. Since being paired with Mike Sauer, Del Zotto’s game has really taken off. He looks better all around the ice, and it is likely because he has a safety net in the monster that is Sauer.

Where the numbers really show a difference is at even strength, where Del Zotto needed to work on his game. Del Zotto’s QUALCOMP is fourth on the team at -.106, which is where you expect him to be (Sauer, Dan Girardi, and Ryan McDonagh are ahead of him). His Relative Corsi of 7.8 shows that when he is on the ice, his teammates maintain possession of the puck, resulting in more shots at the opponents net than his own. He starts 47.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, but finishes 50.0% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Those zone start/finish percentages illustrate that although he is getting a good portion of his shifts to start in the offensive zone, he is finishing more of his shifts there than starting.

What does all this mean? It shows that when Del Zotto is out on the ice, the Rangers maintain possession of the puck in the offensive zone, and get shots directed at the opponent’s net. When starting in the defensive zone, the Rangers (with Del Zotto on the ice) are able to gain possession of the puck, and move it out of the zone and generate chances until the shift ends, generally in the offensive zone.

This all together shows progress, and a big step forward in regards to progress as well. There are still many on the Trade Del Zotto bandwagon (sigh), and many others who just don’t think he’s worth it (he’s 22, simma down). But in the grand scheme of things, progression is what is most important. Del Zotto has shown progression. What more do you want from him?

How Much Would You Pay Ryan McDonagh?

Usually anything written about Ryan McDonagh should begin with a big, passionate thank you to Bob Gainey but not this time as we’re past that (thanks Bob). We’re at the point now where McDonagh is becoming an integral part of the Rangers line-up, so much so that well ahead of schedule it’s a legitimate point in time to begin to discuss what McDonagh will be worth to the Rangers.

McDonagh is making a paltry (in comparison to his development) $875k this year and the same amount next season; he’s only eligible to become a restricted free agent prior to the 2013/14 season. McDonagh is also picking up a $425k bonus this season – well deserved thus far you’ll no doubt agree.

When it comes to the point where the Rangers begin to discuss terms with the talented blueliner, assuming the former Wisconsin badger continues his development, it’s going to cost the Rangers a fair bit of dollar. Do the Rangers overpay to get his name on a long term contract or do they use the restricted status to their cap advantage? It may be in their interests to get his name on a longer deal as soon as they can.

The next couple of years could be an expensive time on the blueline for the Rangers so it’s a good thing they have depth on the blue line in the organisation (allowing someone to be traded to make space for new deals). If Del Zotto completes his turn around this year and becomes an integral part of the top 6 his new deal won’t be cheap (after the 2012 season) while Mike Sauer’s latest deal expires at the same time as McDonagh. Meanwhile, Marc Staal and Girardi combine for over 7m in cap commitments. Girardi seems the prime candidate to be the victim of any cap management despite becoming a crucial part of the Rangers.

All Ryan McDonagh has done this year is become a force. He’s still learning and still makes some mistakes but he’s providing offense, doing his thing on the back end in an accomplished manner while doing it all with the composure and demeanour of a veteran way beyond his experience level. With 3 goals, 5 points and a huge amount of ice time this season, McDonagh has made the bitter pill of losing Marc Staal easier to swallow. So how much would you pay him? Would you get him under contract sooner rather than later?

Power Play Comes Through – Rangers Beat Jets

The Rangers won 2-1 in Winnipeg last night in a game that can best be described dull. At this stage of the season however, all that matters to the Rangers is that they left the MTS Arena with 2 points to make their Western Canadian trip a highly successful one. All in all as the Rangers head home, despite playing inconsistent error prone hockey to begin the year they will be more than happy to be 3-2-2. Let’s get to some game thoughts.

• 2 Power Play goals. Really? The first goal came from some sustained pressure on the power play after which Girardi and Del Zotto moved the puck before Fedotenko redirected a Girardi shot. It wasn’t complicated or beautiful hockey but hockey basics. The second PP goal was the kind of lucky break you need (off the skate and in) but the Rangers managed to get good entry to the zone and that’s what happens if you can get behind the defense.
• Mike Del Zotto had a good game. He looked more confident, wanted the puck on his stick and it looks like he’s really turning his game round with each and every game. Would have played this much if everyone was healthy? No, but his game is profiting from all the ice time. A +4 on the season is a long way from those rookie days.
• The Rangers looked solid in the second period, created a few chances and finally had some sustained pressure in the offensive zone. The pressure resulted in Claude Noel needing to take a time out for the Jets.
• Marian Gaborik was shut down in this game. No shots, little going for him. This is the kind of game when your depth has to come through when your star players can’t get it done. Thankfully the depth came through tonight.
• Callahan: Better. Dubinsky: wasn’t. Richards: invisible.
• The Rangers realise you have to shoot and get shots on net to win games, right? They will not win many games when they only have 17 shots on net like last night.  In the 7 games thus far the Rangers have recorded less than 20 shots in 4 of 7 games; that’s pathetic. Amazingly they are 2-1-1 in those games.
• Penalties: the Rangers were better disciplined last night. I had to check the box score a few times because I couldn’t believe the Rangers only took one penalty aside from the Prust fight. Stay out of the box and you win games.
• If this game wasn’t further evidence that the Rangers have the best goaltending combination in the game I don’t know what is. Biron played well, stepped in and the Rangers didn’t skip a beat. He was solid all night and I thought he was helpless on Antropov’s goal.
• Is it me or does Antropov always play well against the Rangers?
• Dan Girardi is playing on another level right now even if I thought he could have cleared the zone before the Jets’ goal.

A Look At The Defense’s Quality Of Competition

When the Rangers lost Marc Staal and Mike Sauer, they lost more than two of their top four defensemen. They lost two of their most physical defensemen and two guys that have been relied upon for many games to neutralize the opposition’s top lines. They are out, and others are looked at to fill those gaping holes on defense. Although it is very tough to quantify how the Rangers will look when Staal and Sauer come back, we can look at who the workhorses are, and who is lining up against top quality –or bottom of the barrel– opponents.

Let’s state the obvious: Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh are the workhorses, and they are facing off against the opposition’s top lines night in and night out. They will be doing so for the foreseeable future too, as there does not appear to be any timetable for Staal and Sauer’s return. Using the eye test, it’s easy to say that Michael Del Zotto has been one of the Rangers better defenders as well, and to an extent he has been. But that’s why we have stats like QUALCOMP that measure the quality of competition that each player is facing.

A brief description of QUALCOMP, it is a positive or negative number, and the higher it is, the better competition a player is facing. Let’s look at the table below through the Rangers first three games:

To sum up the table, the players facing the top quality competition are the ones you’d expect in McDonagh and Girardi. After that, it’s interesting to see that Tim Erixon is the player that coach John Tortorella seems to rely on the most when it comes to difficult opponents. The fact that they are the only three with positive QUALCOMP shows how much trust the coach has in them, and how his trust wavers with some of his other options.

Yes, Michael Del Zotto has been pretty good on defense this year, but he is way at the bottom of the QUALCOMP rankings. In fact, Del Zotto is at the very bottom in QUALCOMP for the entire league (excluding Sauer, who is injured). This is, of course, a very small sample size (just three games), and these numbers are likely to change dramatically as there is more of a regression to the mean (or progression to the mean for those slow out of the gate).

While those numbers themselves may change dramatically, the place where each defenseman resides on the list is likely to remain unchanged. It is widely known that with Staal and Sauer out, McDonagh and Girardi will be the top dogs on the blue line. What is troubling is that the Rangers have one defenseman that they are “breaking in” (Del Zotto), and another veteran –one that they relied on heavily last year– that are in the negatives with their QUALCOMP.

We do fall victim to small sample sizes here, as Jeff Woywitka has only played one game, and Steve Eminger took about 10-15 games last year to hit his stride and become that reliable defenseman that helped the Rangers through their injuries last season.  That said, trends will likely continue though, so expect to see Del Zotto facing off against lesser quality opponents, and expect the bulk of the heavy duty work to go to McDonagh and Girardi.

The positive to take out of this is that Tim Erixon has been facing some decent competition, better than both Eminger and Woywitka. He has been up to the task thus far. Although the number may change, he will still be considered to be a “second pairing” guy when it comes to the quality he is facing.

The Importance Of Michael Del Zotto

Michael Del Zotto has been the target of a lot of unwarranted heat, hatred, and vicious “trade him now” comments from a good portion of the fan base. Generally speaking, these comments are unnecessary for a defenseman who just turned 21 years old. The kid has a long way to go before anyone can even come close to labeling him as a bust. That said, this year is a big year for the young defenseman, both for himself and the success of the New York Rangers.

Del Zotto may not have been penciled into the top four defensemen in the offseason, but the injury to Marc Staal has forced Del Zotto to play top four minutes, and he has responded with relatively strong play. Of course, this is just through two games, and there have been a few mistakes made, but mistakes happen, no one is perfect.

The two most glaring mistakes that people point to are Del Zotto’s homerun passes, which generally never work, and his inability to cover Mike Richards on the LA Kings tying goal. Addressing each one: MDZ has only made two passes which I consider to be horrendous passes, one killed an offensive rush and the other was essentially a pass to Jack Johnson. Looking into the Richards goal, Del Zotto had great positioning, he just couldn’t get his stick on Richards’ stick. Richards is an elite forward, so it’s tough to really fault Del Zotto on that one, but it was his coverage.

Despite those mishaps, Del Zotto is going to be relied upon to be a top four defenseman for the forseeable future, and he has so far answered the call (through two games). This is a long season, but the Del Zotto we have seen so far this season is not the Del Zotto of last season. He is throwing his weight around (seven hits), playing good defense, and aside from a few passes, has done a decent job of carrying the puck up the ice.  The offensive production will come, but the main  issue has been his play in the other two zones. Thus far, he has been better than expected. If he continues like this, he will be a very pleasant surprise, and will make the Marc Staal injury easier to deal with.

The Many Effects of Mike Sauer

With the multiple injuries occurring on defense recently it goes without saying the Rangers will have been relieved that Mike Sauer didn’t sustain a serious knock in the Flyers game. It also points out the meteoric rise that Sauer has undergone in less than twelve months. It’s not a surprise – he always had impressive talent – but it is meteoric when you consider Sauer’s career looked to have stalled until last season given all the injuries that stopped him from rising through the organisation quicker.

Mike Sauer is giving the Rangers a healthy problem while at the same time allowing the Rangers to develop other prospects more patiently. Sauer basically has become a win-win scenario for the Rangers. Sauer will never wow you with offensive skill or blistering mobility. He doesn’t need to. He makes solid decisions, is physically impressive and is as good a teammate as you’ll ever need. In short, Sauer is a model pro.

Marc Staal’s lingering physical issues may allow Sauer to take another step in his burgeoning career. Sauer became a good NHL, top four defenseman last season. Should Staal miss any kind of stretch of regular season games, Sauer could have the chance to show he can be a top pair defenseman. This is worth noting because it affects so many players in different ways. Sauer stepping up potentially affects Dan Girardi’s long term position with the organisation. A reliable two way guy, Girardi may find himself moved out for business/financial reasons down the line if prospects become NHL ready and Sauer (or another) can replace him on the top pair.

Sauer playing bigger minutes long-term allows the likes of Tim Erixon, Mike Del Zotto, Pavel Valentenko and Dylan McIlrath all to be brought along on more appropriate time-frames - once the rash of injuries begin to calm down. However, then there is the other side to all of this. If players like Sauer make themselves irreplaceable then guys such as Tomas Kundratek and Pavel ‘I have waiver issues’ Valentenko find themselves in murky water as far as their own futures go. Does one player’s progress also diminish any trade value they may have as well? This is a problem Sauer’s progression can pose.

There are so many ripple effects to consider because of a player’s development and Mike Sauer’s past year and his immediate future highlight it so well. The player is affected, the organisation’s depth is affected, the cap is a concern and business decisions may outrank sporting ones because of things such as contractual issues (i.e. ‘do we trade Girardi to free up cap to pay X, Y or Z?’). It isn’t just about a player simply moving up through an organisation any more. It’s so much more.

Del Zotto Could Benefit From Playing With Redden

To say that Michael Del Zotto had a rough sophomore year would be like saying Paris Hilton is only a little bit of a…err…a little bit promiscuous.  Del Zotto struggled so mightily that he was demoted to the AHL, where he promptly broke a finger.  Needless to say, he did not have an enjoyable year, and it led to vicious fans saying he was a bust, over rated, and that the Rangers should trade him.  But have no fear, Wade Redden is here!

I mean that seriously folks.  Redden has worked wonders with many of the Rangers defensive prospects, including Tomas Kundratek and Jyri Niemi.  However, his masterpiece was his work with a certain prospect that has become a staple on the Rangers blue line. Rick Carpiniello nicknames him McMonster.  His name is Ryan McDonagh…perhaps you’ve heard of him?

McDonagh struggled out of the gate in the AHL, as adjusting to the speed of the professional game seemed to be a bit much for the youngster. Insert Redden, who took the kid under his wing and the rest, as they say, is history.

Why not try to see if Redden can work his magic on Del Zotto? Both play a similar style of game, and Del Zotto’s issues seem to be a bit easier to deal with that McDonagh’s.  After all, Del Zotto appears to have adjusted to the speed, he just can’t seem to pass the puck anymore.  Redden, at one point in his career, was a premier NHL defenseman (insert “best first pass in the game” joke here).  But seriously, if you didn’t want him on your team in the early 2000′s, you were crazy.

Del Zotto’s biggest issue is that he is forcing that home run pass, instead of making that simple pass up the ice to start the rush.  That was a pass that Redden mastered before his game went the way of the dodo.  This post is not designed to make Redden into a super hero, but it is designed to say that maybe, just maybe, Del Zotto could benefit from an extended stay with the CT Whale and with Redden as his defensive partner.

The talent is clearly there in Del Zotto, and the kid is barely even 21 years old. There is plenty of time for him to get his head back in the game and turn into a productive defender. Even if he just turns his offense around to the point where he can contribute, it’s a win. There are so many defensive minded guys on the blue line, that having one that can actually put the puck in the net would be beneficial to the Rangers, not detrimental.

Redden has worked wonders with the prospects, and he has played a significant role in the development of these prospects into legitimate players and defensive depth. Maybe it’s time to work with the one defenseman whose game most closely resembles his in his prime?

Could Staal Mean Dylan?

With all the hullaballoo (love that word) surrounding Marc Staal’s physical condition, it’s worth pointing out once again the impressive depth the Rangers have at the defense position. Yes, I can hear the replies now of ‘none of them are Marc Staal’. Certainly true, at least at this stage of their careers they are not. However, what is worth noting is that there may not be a franchise in the league right now that could bear the brunt of missing their best blue liner better the Rangers can.

Obviously if Staal misses game time long term it puts a huge dent in the 2011-12 plans of the Rangers. I’d argue that he is just as important as a Gaborik, more important than a Dubinsky, and not far behind the level of importance Lundqvist has on this team. However, the Rangers have a stack of defensemen on the bubble of making the big club (sooner rather than later) that could fill in at least short term, even if it was in a reduced capacity.

Dave pointed out the other day how Pavel Valentenko may be on the roster and not in the AHL due to his contract status. Indeed Valentenko has the physical game and aggressiveness to keep the Rangers blueline nasty and with an appropriate physicality. You have the much discussed, even more anticipated Tim Erixon looking impressive each day, and the potential offensive whiz of Mike Del Zotto still around. Great potential, great depth.

Here’s the wild card in the Staal situation: don’t rule out the Rangers keeping Dylan McIlrath with the club if Staal were to miss some regular season time. It serves a few purposes. The Rangers get a full look at the big kid in ‘real’ NHL action. It gives him invaluable experience and could be done in the bottom pairing with another player moving up. Steve Eminger played admirably in a bigger role for a period last year, so it’s not daunting to think he could be needed to do it again this season even if it isn’t ideal.

Back to Dylan McIlrath. A lot of people may think he’s not NHL ready and he probably isn’t. He wasn’t a dominating presence at Traverse City and he’s not been a name flying off the tongue in camp either. However, when considering this potential opportunity to fill-in for Staal remember John Tortorella’s recent comments about infusing yet more talent in to the line up and further developing the youth. Giving McIlrath a 6-7 game look to begin the year does both. Hey, you may send him back to junior after a spell in NY, but take a look at what you have in the kid. We’ll get some more insight in to McIlrath’s readiness in today’s pre-season opener.

So how about Blake Parlett and Tomas Kundratek? Brendan Bell? Staal’s ‘injury’ scare is unfortunate, potentially crippling if it lingered, but if anything it should act as a carrot to the rest of the defensemen in camp that aren’t assured of a roster spot. In an odd way, the Staal situation could act as a great motivator to the rest and really crank up the competition. Players are playing for an NHL job, even if it’s short term. Once they’re there it’s a chance to stick with the team.

Given that I’m a risk taker, but at the same time an optimist, if the unfortunate scenario of Staal missing game time occurred, I’d give McIlrath a shot while taking a veteran such as Bell to Europe as well. You have the safety blanket of Bell being around but the opportunity to unleash what is (hopefully) a big part of the team’s future in McIlrath. Nothing ventured, nothing gained right?

Del Zotto’s Waiver Status A Concern

As I touched on yesterday, Michael Del Zotto only has 33 NHL games left before he is no longer exempt from waivers.  For those who are not as well-versed on waivers as I, what that means is that after Del Zotto plays his 33rd NHL game, he can no longer be sent to the AHL –other than for conditioning assignments– without being subject to waivers.  To make matters worse, Del Zotto is probably penciled in to the bottom pairing, and any signs of struggle will force the Rangers hand, maybe a bit prematurely.

Don’t think for a second that the 33 game “limit” (I use this term loosely) on Del Zotto isn’t going to play into management’s decision to keep him around.  If there is any sign of struggle from Del Zotto in camp, you can surely expect him to start the season with the CT Whale until they know for a fact that he is ready.  It also means that if Del Zotto will have a shorter leash than most.  There is a 100% guarantee that Del Zotto would be claimed on waivers, so once 33 games hits, demotion is no longer an option.

The 33 game “limit” (again, used loosely) will also have an effect on the bottom defense pairing competition.  With Tim Erixon likely to make the roster, and Steve Eminger a guarantee to make the roster, then the Rangers are looking at a hole for the seventh defenseman.  You can be sure that they won’t put a kid in the seventh defenseman role, so if MDZ struggles, we might actually see Brendan Bell on this team as an insurance policy.

There’s also the scenario that a kid, like Tomas Kundratek, plays his way on to the roster.  If that’s the case, then Eminger is likely to be the seventh guy.  Would the Rangers keep Erixon around and send Del Zotto down because of the games limit?

Note: In this scenario, I would assume that both Erixon and Del Zotto have good camps, just the kid (Kundratek in this case) outplays them.  Much like the Mike Sauer situation last year.

This is one of those rare occasions where there is more involved with the Rangers decisions than just performance on the ice.  It serves no purpose to have a kid playing the seventh defenseman role, but a short waiver limit gives Del Zotto an equally short leash.  This is actually one of those issues where camp may not solve the problem.

What If Erixon And Del Zotto Need More Time?

One of the biggest question marks heading into the new season for the Rangers has nothing to do with Brad Richards or Marian Gaborik.  It has to do with the bottom defense pairing. Right now, many assume that at least one of Michael Del Zotto or Tim Erixon will be ready and will make the team and won’t be a liability in any of the three zones.  The best case scenario is that they both succeed and make the team, making Steve Eminger a seventh defenseman.  But there is always the other scenario: that both need to hit the AHL a little before coming to the big club.

If that’s the case, then the only guarantee is that Steve Eminger will be on the bottom pairing.  After Eminger, the Rangers would have more question marks for the final defenseman than the Islanders do with their goaltending.  Pavel Valentenko –due to his great camp last year– and Brendan Bell –because he has already played in the NHL– would be the two favorites to serve as the final (or final two) defensemen.  However, nothing is given.  Remember when everyone guaranteed Ryan McDoangh a spot on opening night, only to be outplayed by his current defense partner?

But the candidate that not many will point to is the one that I am looking at to fill a void if these two aren’t ready: Tomas Kundratek.  He could be the most NHL ready of any of the Rangers AHL defensemen last year, with the exception of Wade Redden.  The 21 year old may not put up stellar numbers, but he has been a steady blue line presence for the Whale, who appears capable of handling NHL duties.

The first issue may be who makes the team, but the second issue is waivers, and it’s a pretty big issue.  Currently, none of the prospects and young players need to pass through waivers, but that will change 33 games into the season, if Del Zotto makes the team.  The minute Del Zotto plays his 33rd game this season, he will need to pass through waivers, which presents a whole other obstacle for the Rangers to overcome.  It also presents a very interesting scenario: If Del Zotto appears to be ready, but could benefit from more AHL time, do the Rangers send him down to avoid the waiver issue?

The question about the bottom pairing is one that may be floating under the radar because of Brad Richards and the hole(s) he fills, but it is a question that needs to be answered before the Rangers open the season in Sweden.  This may, in fact, be the biggest hole in the Rangers team this season.  With questions abound about not only the composition of the bottom pair, but waivers as well, Rangers brass may be forced to make a decision that will anger some fans.  But if John Tortorella’s track record tells us anything, it’s that he will give the kids every opportunity to play their way on to the roster.