Options In Case of Sauer

Mike Sauer remains day to day but with a concussion the Rangers are likely to be very careful with the ever improving defenseman. That brings in to focus the current defensive corps and the (lack of) depth the Rangers currently have on the big club. Your bottom three defenseman should not be named Steve Eminger, Jeff Woywitka and Anton Stralman. Especially when you have Mike Del Zotto in the top six improving but still developing. The Rangers need to look at other options in case Sauer misses extended time.

Sauer out brings us to the Rangers options on the farm. It’s highly unlikely (barring an extended losing streak) that the Rangers will go outside of the organisation. If that was an option at this stage, they may already have added another player. However, depending on the style the Rangers want to play there are two options in Connecticut; Pavel Valentenko and Tim Erixon.

While Erixon has already accumulated some NHL time with the Rangers (and certainly didn’t embarrass himself), this may be the perfect opportunity to see whether Valentenko really has what it takes to make the Rangers in the near future. Questionable skating ability seems to have held back Valentenko so far but with the greatest respect to Jeff Woywitka – and especially Steve Eminger – at least short term, trying out Valentenko can’t be any worse than the aforementioned two options.

If the Russian fails you can plan without him beyond the season. If he adds stability or physicality and holds his own in the line-up you know you have another asset to work with even if/when he would be demoted upon Sauer and (or) Staal’s returns.

Tim Erixon will be a future staple on the blue line in the future and his play (particularly offensively) appears to be improving with the Whale as we speak – much like McDonagh’s game got better throughout last year in the AHL. However, the Rangers should think carefully about taking a look at their rugged Russian blue liner while they still have a chance to do so. With the Rangers defense getting it done by committee this season it can’t do too much harm to throw another name in to the mix.

Valentenko Clears Waivers

In a bit of surprising yet unsurprising news, no claims were put in for any of the players placed on waivers over the weekend.  That means Pavel Valentenko cleared waivers and can be assigned to the CT Whale.  I said that if anyone were to be claimed on waivers, it would be Tenk, but it’s good to see he is still with the organization.

Also clearing was Wade Redden, but that was expected.

Could Staal Mean Dylan?

With all the hullaballoo (love that word) surrounding Marc Staal’s physical condition, it’s worth pointing out once again the impressive depth the Rangers have at the defense position. Yes, I can hear the replies now of ‘none of them are Marc Staal’. Certainly true, at least at this stage of their careers they are not. However, what is worth noting is that there may not be a franchise in the league right now that could bear the brunt of missing their best blue liner better the Rangers can.

Obviously if Staal misses game time long term it puts a huge dent in the 2011-12 plans of the Rangers. I’d argue that he is just as important as a Gaborik, more important than a Dubinsky, and not far behind the level of importance Lundqvist has on this team. However, the Rangers have a stack of defensemen on the bubble of making the big club (sooner rather than later) that could fill in at least short term, even if it was in a reduced capacity.

Dave pointed out the other day how Pavel Valentenko may be on the roster and not in the AHL due to his contract status. Indeed Valentenko has the physical game and aggressiveness to keep the Rangers blueline nasty and with an appropriate physicality. You have the much discussed, even more anticipated Tim Erixon looking impressive each day, and the potential offensive whiz of Mike Del Zotto still around. Great potential, great depth.

Here’s the wild card in the Staal situation: don’t rule out the Rangers keeping Dylan McIlrath with the club if Staal were to miss some regular season time. It serves a few purposes. The Rangers get a full look at the big kid in ‘real’ NHL action. It gives him invaluable experience and could be done in the bottom pairing with another player moving up. Steve Eminger played admirably in a bigger role for a period last year, so it’s not daunting to think he could be needed to do it again this season even if it isn’t ideal.

Back to Dylan McIlrath. A lot of people may think he’s not NHL ready and he probably isn’t. He wasn’t a dominating presence at Traverse City and he’s not been a name flying off the tongue in camp either. However, when considering this potential opportunity to fill-in for Staal remember John Tortorella’s recent comments about infusing yet more talent in to the line up and further developing the youth. Giving McIlrath a 6-7 game look to begin the year does both. Hey, you may send him back to junior after a spell in NY, but take a look at what you have in the kid. We’ll get some more insight in to McIlrath’s readiness in today’s pre-season opener.

So how about Blake Parlett and Tomas Kundratek? Brendan Bell? Staal’s ‘injury’ scare is unfortunate, potentially crippling if it lingered, but if anything it should act as a carrot to the rest of the defensemen in camp that aren’t assured of a roster spot. In an odd way, the Staal situation could act as a great motivator to the rest and really crank up the competition. Players are playing for an NHL job, even if it’s short term. Once they’re there it’s a chance to stick with the team.

Given that I’m a risk taker, but at the same time an optimist, if the unfortunate scenario of Staal missing game time occurred, I’d give McIlrath a shot while taking a veteran such as Bell to Europe as well. You have the safety blanket of Bell being around but the opportunity to unleash what is (hopefully) a big part of the team’s future in McIlrath. Nothing ventured, nothing gained right?

Valentenko’s Waiver Status May Force Rangers Hand

Editor’s Note: This post was written last night at around 7:30pm, before the NY Post and Larry Brooks article was published. This is not an attempt to rip off Brooks, it is just coincidental timing.

Pavel Valentenko is no longer exempt from waivers.  Even though he is still on his entry level deal without playing a single NHL game, he signed his contract when he was 19 (2007), and thus has been signed for four years (details here), which eliminates his waiver eligibility.  This will be a determining factor in who makes the team out of camp.  It will not be THE determining factor –the level of play will be– but it will definitely be on the minds of the coaching staff once the decisions need to be made.

Don’t think it will play into their decision? Then look no further than Mike Sauer, who was in an almost identical situation last year. Of course, Sauer helped himself by having a solid camp, but his camp was much like Tenk’s camp last season.  Assuming Tenk can improve upon his camp from last year, which all signs point to him being able to do so, then his waiver status may make him impossible to cut.

Sauer made the team because of his strong camp, but the decision to keep him over someone like Valentenko or Ryan McDonagh was because of his waiver status. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility to have one of Michael Del Zotto or Tim Erixon, the two front runners for the open spots on the blue line, to start the season in the AHL because their waiver clocks have not expired yet.

If the decision with Sauer last season shows us anything, it is that the organization will take waiver status into account if certain players are “dead even” in camp. Right now the spots are Del Zotto’s and Erixon’s to lose. If Tenk is sent to the AHL, it is highly unlikely he will pass through waivers if called up. If Tenk goes to the Whale, he’s there for the year. Considering the presence of Wade Redden, that might not be a bad thing either.

The Bottom Defense Pair Competition

Barring any more moves by Glen Sather and company, the Rangers are looking at some intense competition for two of the final roster spots on the blue line come September.  Four spots are a given: Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Mike Sauer, and Ryan McDonagh.  One spot is all but a given (Steve Eminger), so if the Rangers decide to carry seven defensemen, that leaves two spots up for grabs.  We all know the names, but let’s break them down into three categories.

The Favorites

The favorites for those last two spots are relatively clear: Tim Erixon and Michael Del Zotto.  They are the ones that are the most NHL ready –or have prior NHL experience.  Both bring an aspect to the game that the Rangers don’t appear to have on the blue line in their ability to jump start the offense with an outlet pass.  Del Zotto has more offense to his game and may have the higher potential in that regard, but Erixon is likely to be the more rounded of the two in all three zones.  Expect them both to be on the opening night roster, even if they are both left handed shots.

The Dark Horses

This category is also limited to two names really, and they are Pavel Valentenko and Tomas Kundratek.  At first glance of the names, people will flock to Valentenko because he has that booming shot.  However, it was clear last preseason that he was not ready for the NHL.  Improvement in his skating and positioning were a must for Tenk.  Kundratek may not have that shot, but he is a sound defender who plays the game well in his own zone.  I would give Kundratek the upper hand here because he is currently better than Tenk in his own zone, and he is a much needed right handed shot.

The Possible But Unlikely

Only one name goes here: Dylan McIlrath.  McIlrath is just flat out mean, and would give the Rangers much needed toughness on the blue line.  Sauer can only do so much of the punishing on his own.  McIlrath not only needs to impress, but he needs to show he can win the Calder in order to be a serious contender for a roster spot this season.  In essence, he needs to do what Del Zotto did two years ago.  The Rangers won’t make that mistake twice though.  McIlrath is possible, but he won’t make the club this year.

If I had to put a ranking of those likely to make the roster, I would put Del Zotto at the front of the list with Erixon not far behind.  Kundratek would round out the top three, and to be honest, any one of them can win a roster spot over the others with a strong camp.  There is a big gap on my list between Kundratek and Valentenko, and an even bigger gap between Tenk and McIlrath.  Those kids are going to be battling hard for those last two spots.  Anything can happen.

What Happens If Del Zotto Doesn’t Rebound?

The question at hand is a lot less daunting than it was during last season when the young defenseman stumbled through his second season. It’s less daunting now thanks to the acquisition of two way prospect Tim Erixon, however the question is still a valid one; how would the Rangers react if Del Zotto can’t find his game again?

Del Zotto having another bad year would likely bottom out his trade value and leave the Rangers with little organisational (pure) offense from the blue line as Erixon is seen as a two way presence whereas Del Zotto is the more dynamic, offensive type. Would another bad year mean the end of MDZ’s tenure with the Rangers? We saw what happened to Bobby Sanguinetti once it was clear to management that he’d never make it as a Ranger. Now granted, the situations are pretty different as Del Zotto has already proven he has what it takes to succeed at the NHL level but it can’t be denied that he’d be on shaky ground, to an extent.

Del Zotto’s future seems closely entwined with Tim Erixon’s. Considered NHL ready, if Erixon comes into camp and blows everyone away, coupled with anything less than his own impressive camp, Del Zotto will almost certainly begin the year in the AHL and it could be a long way back. Again, with an impressive camp from Erixon you can easily imagine the Rangers being a lot more open to trading the young Canadian defenseman while they still can.

Assuming Del Zotto doesn’t start well (for the record I’d be patient with him as his upside is very impressive) and the Rangers do indeed look to other players ahead of MDZ, would that impact the Rangers draft tendencies next summer? As mentioned, there is very little offensive help on the blue line in the system and with several Rangers forwards progressing nicely it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rangers go down the defenseman draft route once again.

All of a sudden a poor MDZ exposes a few holes in the system. All of a sudden, next summer the Rangers may have a few big holes to plug. The team is still in need of drafting a goalie or two as the organisational depth is minimal while suddenly the Rangers need to find offense from the back.  Of course, again assuming the worst, the Rangers have depth at the NHL (and NHL ready) level and could easily deal a player such as Dan Girardi or a young forward for help instead of going the draft route, but of course dealing players away for help is never ideal.

Of course there’s another trail of thought. An impressive Erixon from the get-go may allow the Rangers to show (brave?) patience with Del Zotto and let him work through his issues with an entire season in the AHL. There’s no reason why Del Zotto couldn’t play a full year in the A and then make it back to the NHL. Plenty of elite defensemen have spent significant time learning and refining their games in the second tier (think Duncan Keith for starters), the only difference would be that Del Zotto got to the NHL via the NHL.

With plenty of forwards progressing nicely as well as rugged D-men such as Dylan McIlrath and Pavel Valentenko on deck, the Rangers may be posed with an interesting decision or two over the next 12 months with regards to their personnel decisions. Here’s hoping Del Zotto takes one decision out of the management’s hands.

Eminger Was Unnecessary

Steve Eminger performed admirably last season, especially when he stepped up in to a more prominent role due to injury. However, re-signing him this season was a signing for the sake of it, regardless of his minimal cost (disagreeing with The Suit here). Unlike many Rangers fan’s, I struggle to agree with the desperation to have the clichéd ‘veteran depth defenseman’. If the blue line is good enough its old enough and Marc Staal and Dan Girardi are that experienced already that they could impart their experiences on the others.

The only benefit I can see from the Eminger re-hiring is that it likely means a player with limited upside is in the press box instead of a genuine prospect. That said, I’d much rather not have an extra body in the way of Valentenko or Kundratek’s progress through the ranks. If these kids are genuinely NHL calibre and, as so often mooted, close to NHL ready why shove another player in their way? Let the carrot be close enough to bite at. Let these players be close enough to the NHL they can almost touch it. Eminger hinders this.

Another issue; the Rangers should be better next year and could upset some teams if when they make the playoffs (not on the last day of school this time guys…) but as I have stated multiple times they are still at least one season’s worth of development from truly making some noise. If that is the case then bring the kids up and let ‘em learn however if the Rangers are beginning (internally) to think ‘win now’ then Eminger isn’t the right calibre of veteran anyway.

At $800k per year Eminger can’t be a big mistake. He makes a small amount of the cap and is on a minimal term deal but I can’t help feeling that this was a pointless move. Give me the kids instead. I’m betting Kundratek can give me at least the same 6 points Eminger had and V-Tank can give me the physicality Eminger provides.  Unfortunately for Rangers fans it seems they’ll likely be showing off their talents in the AHL next season.

The Prospect and Whale Low-down (part 3)

Over the last week we have posted the first two parts of the great Q &A we had between Brian Ring and Bob Crawford from the Connecticut Whale. Check them out here and here. Bob and Brian discussed everything from the best players during their time with the CT organisation to the current crop of promising Rangers prospects. Today is the final part of the series. Enjoy the read, I know I enjoyed it.

Regarding Evgeny Grachev; has his development come on between his first and second years as a pro and how?

Bob: I think Grachev made real good progress last season.  I think he’s a perfect example of that dominant Junior player who found that in the AHL his size, hands and shot would not by themselves let him control games.  He did a much better job this past year of picking up the pace of his game, using his size to protect the puck and disciplining himself to bring a consistent effort every night.  He’ll be a third-year pro next year, and as big as he is, I think he is still in the process of refining his strength from that of a teenager to that of a man.  If he can make some big strides in that area, I think he’ll be a quality NHLer for sure.

Brian: I think he definitely has improved and his scoring totals reflect that, and his plus/minus showed a +34 shift from last year to this year, for whatever that’s really worth. This past year, he definitely adopted a more physical style at times and started to use his frame to drive the net. I think in that regard, he is pretty similar to Anisimov, as once Artie started to use his size his production really started to pick up. Grachev has great size and talent, and once he puts it all together every night he’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.

So many high scoring players in juniors come to the AHL and struggle offensively. What do you think are some of the biggest challenges for forwards making the jump?

Bob: I think, more than anything, it’s the speed of the game and the strength of the players.  Guys find themselves with much less time to make a play, much less room, and up against stronger and smarter players, than they were used to in Junior or college.  Some have another level to take it to, and adjust very quickly, some take a year or two, or several years, to figure out how to change their games and achieve success in the AHL, and some, unfortunately, never can make that adjustment, or never can find the will to do so.

Brian: I think it definitely boils down to size and speed. Not exactly ground-breaking analysis, but when you enter this league after playing against teenagers or guys that may not go pro, it can be tough when you run into grown men that have played several years of professional hockey. You aren’t going to have as much time to make a play, or as much space to operate in. Not to mention you probably aren’t playing with players you know or are comfortable with. So factor in all those things and you can understand why there could be an adjustment period.

What are the immediate Rangers chances of the young defensemen that didn’t make the big club last year?

Bob: Tomas Kundratek, to me, has the look of a young colt who is only just figuring out how good he can be.  His skating, size and effort level have me thinking that he is not far away from pushing the NHL.  Pavel Valentenko, if he makes similar strides to last year, will definitely be ready for a look, and it will be interesting to see if Blake Parlett can continue his upward trajectory.

Brian: I think Valentenko could probably step in right now if they needed him to. Yes, I am pretty high on “Tank”. Blake Parlett is probably not far away, I know he’s drawn some comps to Dan Girardi, which would be great. Tomas Kundratek I think is probably a little farther, but another year of development will be great for him, because he did make big strides this year. It will be interesting to see how Michael Del Zotto fits in this year as well, I guess that depends on what happens with New York’s roster and in camp.

Do you think the nucleus of these prospects that start in CT through 11/12 can provide CT with a playoff appearance – and why?

Bob: I definitely think the Whale can be a playoff team again, based on the organization’s overall skill level up front and a young group of D-men having another year of experience.  Hopefully one of the goaltenders will take charge as a 50-60-game dependable backstop…if that happens, I really like how the team could look for the ’11-’12 season.

Brian: Definitely. It’s a skilled bunch and GM Jim Schoenfeld, along with coaches Ken Gernander, J.J. Daigneault and Pat Boller, have done a phenomenal job running this team. I’m very excited to see this years’ team, I think it’s going to be a great crop of prospects and they have as good a chance to make the playoffs and contend as any team does.

Again, a final thanks to Bob Crawford and Brian Ring of the Connecticut Whale for taking their time to provide their unique insight into the Whale and the Rangers prospects. Check back throughout season (and off season) for regular looks at the CT Whale and how the Rangers prospects are doing ‘down on the farm’! Make sure you follow Brian and the Whale on twitter at @brianring and @CTWhale!

The Whale and Rangers Prospect Low-Down (Part One)

A lot of change is happening in the Rangers organisation. Many prospects are coming up through the organisation and developing; whether it be after their first year as a pro, promotion from the Canadian Junior Circuit (CHL) or leaving college to join the pro ranks. In most cases the prospects will taste the pro level for the first time with the Rangers main affiliate in Connecticut, the CT Whale.

Recently, Brian Ring and Bob Crawford from the CT Whale took time out of their busy schedules to discuss the Rangers prospects, the Whale organisation, and provide a unique insight into the potential next wave of Rangers. Answering numerous questions for the blog, we’ll have their answers in a few posts over the next week or so starting with the first few questions below. A big thanks to Brian and Bob for speaking with us. Happy reading!

Read more »

Pavel Valentenko; Another Girardi?

Recently Pavel Valentenko completed his first season with the Connecticut Whale. While it seems his skating ability may hold him back from reaching the NHL (those in the know, doubt he has the skating level required for the big show) his fearless play and willingness to give up his body won’t stop him from getting to the NHL. Recently, the AHL ran a feature on the Russian defenseman who remains a legitimate prospect for the Rangers.

The AHL lauded Valentenko a ‘prime shot blocker’ (hence the perhaps misleading title on this post…) while the Russian defenseman received praise from several team mates for his style. Whale goalie Cam Talbot went pretty far with the compliments when he said the following:

“Pavel blocks shots so well it’s like having three goalies.”

Valentenko has been drawing comparisons to NHL defenseman Anton Volchenkov, so it seems its not just their surnames that are similar. Wade Redden, by all accounts a great mentor down in Connecticut, considers Volchenkov one of the best shot blockers he has seen in his long career so the comparison is certainly high praise for Valentenko – the young Rangers prospect. To go with the title of the post, it seems there are indeed some links to Dan Girardi. Whale coach JJ Daigneault coached Girardi when the Rangers defenseman was in the minors and Girardi has become a fearless, elite NHL shot blocker. Could Valentenko go the same way?

With a cannon of a shot also in his armoury, Valentenko had a pretty successful season this year. With 5 goals, 17 points and an excellent +21 on his stat sheet for the regular season, Valentenko seems to have a little bit of everything in his game. Despite his physical style he only had 38 penalty minutes while he also had 123 shots. Maybe Valentenko should be finding Brian Boyle’s cell number. Boyle’s skating was also the one major concern in his game and he used Barbara Underhill to help him turn the weakness around and all Rangers fans will gladly discuss the strong season Boyle just had as he established himself as a good NHL player. Maybe with some help, Valentenko can do the same.