Rangers Steal One: Recap

The Rangers are really trying their best to eliminate the word lose from their vocabulary. The Rangers played an at best mediocre game. They lacked energy for the most part, lack cohesion and didn’t manage to sustain an offensive game. That said, this team has the best goalie in the league and has depth. The team got key performances from individuals and worked hard to earn a lucky 3-1 victory. To the hits:

Overall Game Comments

The Rangers got dominated for three quarters of the first but had Lundqvist to thank again. On the back of Lundqvist the Rangers gained a foot hold toward the end of the period. Following strong play along the boards and a simple cross-ice toss by McDonagh – ably assisted by Dubinsky making a nuisance of himself in front -Richards banked home a rebound with Fleury out of position. Call the first period daylight robbery on the part of the Rangers and their Vezina goaltender.

The Rangers were caught out of position for the Pens goal. Following Boyle being taken down deep in the Pens zone a three on three became four Pens as Ben Lovejoy was trailing the play and was completely free right in front and gave Lundqvist no chance. Fedotenko was trying to get back in to the play but was well behind Lovejoy when it mattered. A breakdown by the Rangers cost them dearly

Credit Tortorella for calling an early timeout. It may not have initially had an obvious impact but the Rangers All Star coach takes action when he deems necessary and doesn’t just watch idly like some coaches.

Biggest issue in the first period was the Rangers inability to stop the Pens putting pucks on net, getting bodies to the net and creating havoc around Lundqvist. In short, they seemed to do whatever they wanted around the net other than score more than once.

The Rangers routinely failed to track the free man in their own zone and were caught chasing the puck several times. Given how dangerous James Neal is, it was worrying to see him alone near Lundqvist as the teams battled for the puck near the corner early on.

Early on, it seemed the gap between the Rangers forwards and their defense was too big. The first period in general was the Rangers worst in a very long time. However the score after one showed why this team is where they are: they simply don’t give up and keep themselves in games. The very definition of ‘difficult to beat’.

The Rangers scored a great shorthanded goal following a breakout from their own zone. Callahan showed excellent patience with the puck, making a nice drag-back and slid a simple pass to Dubinsky who tapped in. It was an eerily similar goal to one the Rangers scored in the same game by the same two players last season.

Much like in the Winter Classic, following initial dominance by the opposition, the Rangers raised their compete level, found their legs and looked faster beginning to win more battles along the boards which led to a few chances on Fleury.

Rangers had a two on one about eight minutes into the second. Once again it was Dubinsky and Callahan breaking in and this time Dubinsky, the puck carrier, elected to shoot. This is the type of play that drives people nuts about Dubinsky. He simply has to get that shot on net.

It was noteworthy to see Lundqvist hold on to so many shots and freeze the puck. Why? The Rangers were better on face-offs in the game. As obvious as it sounds, being remotely competent in the faceoff circle reduces the time the team is forced to spend in their own zone.

The third goal. It all started from the way McDonagh patiently tracked Kunitz round the Rangers goal and forced him to play the puck backwards. Gaborik chased the puck down, Fleury mishandled and Stepan followed up a Gaborik post shot to bank the puck in an empty net. Poor play from Fleury but great pressure from the Rangers.

The back tracking from the Rangers forwards vastly improved following the first period. Their neutral zone play – and the aforementioned gap between forwards and defense – was much better as the game progressed.

Noteable Rangers

• It’s almost pointless singling out Lundqvist for his play because he’s spectacular most nights and excellent every night. He made big stops, his positioning was excellent and his rebound control was solid. As noted on the MSG commentary his glove hand was especially brilliant tonight. James Neal (active throughout) found his master in the King.
• Ryan McDonagh had a slight mid-season dip in form but it’s behind him. He was a beast in this game. Involved offensively, solid as a rock defensively and equal to anything the Pens had. When he plays like this (which is often) you almost feel sorry for Montreal fans. Almost.
• Brandon Dubinsky played his best game of the season. He was physical (which he needs to be to be effective) and he was excellent offensively while he constantly went to the net. However there’s that shocking miss on the two on one.
• Marian Gaborik ended the night pointless but he was busy, dangerous and defensively responsible too. His work rate and defensive conscious are under-appreciated but he wouldn’t get so many offensive opportunities if he wasn’t working so hard.
• A final tip of the Broadway Hat goes to Dan Girardi. Like Lundqvist it’s almost boring to praise the Rangers rock on the blueline but he went +3, and played great defense. Whether it is a block, cleverly negating an icing or his great positional play Girardi almost never makes a bad play. Immensely consistent.

Final Thought

What else is there to say? This team keeps winning. It gets contributions from all over the roster and with Marc Staal getting better with each passing game this team has another top tier player on his way back to form. In recent years a win in Pittsburgh would require a great overall performance from the Rangers but this season they can beat elite teams without playing their best. Scary thought. I cannot wait to see how the Rangers measure up against Boston’s finest.  

Changes Are Coming On The Blue Line

Not sure if you guys caught this, but Marc Staal returned to the lineup in dramatic fashion, just in time for the Winter Classic. Again, if you missed this, I don’t blame you, the news was sort of buried amidst the other Winter Classic hooplah.

All kidding aside, Staal’s return marked the 11th defenseman the Rangers have used this season. Stepping back, it really is remarkable how they are this good despite playing everyone except my mother on defense this season.

With Staal back in the lineup, the obvious scratch choice was Jeff Woywitka, and as expected, he was scratched for the Winter Classic. Woywitka, claimed off waivers, was essentially an insurance policy and a body to dress for games. In all fairness, he exceeded expectations and was extremely serviceable. He came in, adjusted to the new system, and played some steady third line minutes…with some hiccups of course.

Now with Mike Sauer looking like he is on the path to return –he skated with the team– the Rangers are going to need to find a place to insert him when he returns. The only realistic options for replacement are Anton Stralman and Stu Bickel, as none of Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, or Michael Del Zotto will be sitting any time soon.

Considering the current pairings, it is my guess that Bickel will be the one who sits for Sauer, when he returns. It’s nothing against the kid, who has played very well (again with some hiccups) in his call up, it’s just a numbers game. It makes more sense for Bickel to be returned to the AHL and get significant ice time than for him to sit around as the healthy scratch for weeks at a time. It is for that same reason that I expect Woywitka to stick around for a long time, at least until Steve Eminger heals.

The decisions about scratches and replacements are easy decisions. The decisions for defensive pairings however is a very tough choice. Does John Tortorella go back to his bread-and-butter pairing of Staal-Girardi? Does he leave Girardi with McDonagh and put Staal with Sauer? Does Del Zotto get matched back up with Sauer, leaving Staal to play with Stralman? These are questions that can only be answered by the coaching staff and by the players’ performance on the ice.

Personally, I would go back to ole reliable: Staal/Girardi, McDonagh/Sauer, MDZ/Stralman. That gives the Rangers two legitimate shut down pairings that also have some offensive upside, plus the surprisingly strong pairing of MDZ/Stralman to give the top four much needed rest. That leaves Eminger as the odd man out, but you would have to assume Stralman and Eminger would be rotating. Assuming those three pairings play the way that is expected and the way that they have all year, the Rangers have one of the deepest blue lines in the league.

The Rangers haven’t played a single game this season with a full strength blue line, yet they remain in first place in the conference. The Times They Are a-Changin’.

A Look At The NYR GVT/PVT Leaders

With the Rangers seemingly in cruise control heading as the season flipped to January, we have been taking the time to look at advanced metrics to determine who exactly is contributing and in what fashion. One of the overall metrics we use here, Points Versus Threshold (or PVT), has been unavailable because it is derived from Goals Versus Threshold (GVT), of which the numbers were not available until recently. Now that Hockey Prospectus has made the GVT numbers available, PVT is now available*. Just a note about the numbers: these do not include the Winter Classic or any January games.

*-Note to the HP and BTN guys: I can help you with getting these out regularly if you want. </shameless plug>

Looking at the defensive unit, which has been marred by injuries, there might be a bit of a surprise at who leads the way:

Key for the tables: GP=Games Played; OGVT=Offensive GVT; DGVT=Defensive GVT; SGVT=Shootout GVT; GVT=Overall GVT; PVT=Overall PVT

Yes folks, that is Michael Del Zotto ahead of both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi for tops among the defensemen in PVT. Del Zotto has earned the Rangers 2.5 extra points in the standings. That is as much as both McDoangh and Girardi combined. That’s not to discount the top pairing, as they are critical to the success of the team by shutting down the opposition. It is more to play up how Del Zotto has done a complete 180 from last season.

Looking more into these numbers, don’t look too deep into Mike Sauer’s numbers. GVT and PVT are counting metrics, and since Sauer has only played 19 games, his number appears lower. When you average it out to the 36 games played, he has about a 1.1 PVT (3.3 GVT) and sits in the top three or four.

As for Steve Eminger, who sits in the bottom three with a 0.3 PVT, it shows how much he struggled early in the season. He played better as he received more minutes, but his PVT numbers suffer because of his horrendous start.

Looking at the PVT numbers, it’s easy to see why Jeff Woywitka was scratched for Marc Staal’s return, and not Stu Bickel. Bickel has the same PVT as Woywitka, but in almost 1/4 the games. That number says it all. Plus the youth and “jam” factor of course.

Analysis of the forwards after the jump

No Staal Return – The Right Decision

Marc Staal is not rushing back today (speculation sparked by ESPN’s John Buccigross) and is the right decision from everyone concerned. Given his strong comments relating to any impending Staal comeback, it’s hard to imagine John Tortorella would have sanctioned the pivotal defenseman’s return unless doctors had absolutely cleared him for the game.

Staal’s return shouldn’t have come because Ryan McDonagh is down with the flu. He should come back when he is ready to come back. Whenever Staal returns, there’s likely to be rust. Not many players can have his kind of lay off and return without missing a beat. The Winter Classic, already played in exceptional circumstances, is not a good choice to return even where there’s health permitting, absolutely not.

The Rangers should allow Staal to return later in the week, give him a few more days of hard skating. Another aspect to consider with the game today; don’t underestimate the likelihood of a dirty, physical game against the Flyers (as is the norm); another reason to tread carefully with the Rangers best blue-liner.

If you can insert a quality player in to the line up who is ready to do so then it’s a no-brainer, but clearly Staal isn’t ready – yet. Let’s just hope all the reasons for Staal’s return – whenever that may be – are the right ones.

McDonagh Leaves Practice Early; Staal Skates With Girardi

Per Jim Cerny, defenseman Ryan McDonagh left practice early with the flu. Following his departure, Marc Staal skated with his usual partner –and McDonagh’s current partner– Dan Girardi. The Rangers are not carrying any extra defensemen in the event that McDonagh cannot go tomorrow.

This leads to my own speculation: Could Staal play tomorrow if McDonagh can’t go tomorrow? It seems to be the only scenario that would be likely if this is the scenario. We may know more as the day progresses, either directly via an announcement, or indirectly via specific roster moves.

For Staal to be activated, the Rangers need to put both Mike Sauer and Steve Eminger on LTIR. Neither are close to returning, so those would be the logical moves to clear the cap space.

This is just speculation on my part, but it’s going to be interesting to see what happens if McDonagh’s condition doesn’t improve. It’s just the flu, but it’s still the flu.

Stralman’s Short Stay

One of the more underrated aspects of the Rangers recent impressive stretch is Anton Stralman stepping up and playing solidly on the second pair. Increased minutes (17/game), sound defense (+9 rating) and a decent offensive game (5 assists in just 12 games); Stralman has helped ease the Rangers through a torrid stretch of injuries on their blue line. However, we probably shouldn’t get used to Stralman patrolling the Rangers blue line.

There’s a very good chance Stralman is auditioning for the rest of the NHL. The Rangers are pretty stacked on the blue line. With Marc Staal and Mike Sauer set to return and with Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh and Mike Del Zotto all core pieces of the blue line going forward there’s only really one spot left to fight over on the blue line with lots of candidates aiming for that spot six.

The also-impressive (surprising) Stu Bickel, Dylan McIlrath and Tim Erixon will all also be in the mix for the final spot next season. Steve Eminger and Jeff Woywitka (at this point in time) may also be considered, especially Eminger. Hopefully with Erixon getting big minutes in CT, he’ll be ready for a full time NHL role next season making competition at camp intense.

Stralman could be a viable candidate from the Rangers point of view. As we’ve said, he’s proven he can handle minutes and make plays at both ends of the ice but the main reason he’s probably not a realistic option for next year is price. The better Stralman plays, the higher his price will be. He may command double his current 900k on the open market. He may command more. Warped theory suggests that the Rangers want to hope they can’t afford him next year because it’ll mean he’s played well enough to command a raise.

The thing is, while the actual $$/sum for Stralman may not be prohibitive the Rangers likely won’t want to invest too much more money in the defensive part of the roster, especially with new deals (AKA raises) on the horizon for Del Zotto and McDonagh. With significant salaries already tied into Staal and Girardi, and the aforementioned raises on the blue line due, the more realistic options are a cheap contract like Eminger or a prospect like Bickel.

The best case scenario for Rangers fans is Stralman plays out an impressive season and earns himself a good contract in the NHL; maybe with the Rangers, probably not. Here’s hoping both the Rangers and the fans enjoy this very public audition. It’s in everyone’s interests it keeps going well.

Tangible Progress – Part One

I feel pretty qualified (even from afar) to be able to pass judgement on how the Rangers have progressed over the first, now almost third, of the season.  Why? Simple really. We all watch the games but I was there for games one and two in Sweden and I was there for arguably there two stiffest challenges to date against the Flyers and Penguins. In between there has been a lot of development if you ask me. So, without further delay let’s talk Rangers, but in stages. Today, we’ll discuss the kids on this team and how they have done.

What concerned me most prior to – and following – the two losses in Sweden was the depth in the defensive department and whether the lines – and personnel – could mesh in time after a completely disjointed preseason. Its one thing to beat middling European clubs (no disrespect) but it’s quite another to be ready for NHL play with a makeshift preparation.

I also had concerns about some of the young talent (legitimate talent) and whether they were ready or able to grab responsibility. Could this team get more scoring? Could this team compete with the more skilled teams in the league? Could this team progress to the next level?

To all the above concerns, they are concerns no more. I think we can all say with both hysteria and realism, that the Rangers have gone to a next level in their development, regardless of last night’s pretty ugly loss. The best part of it all is the results have been obvious on the eye. They have, as the title of this post suggests being tangible. So, what about the kids?

Read more »

Rangers Soaring – Reasons for Optimism

This streak is why Rangers fans have reason to be excited. The Rangers are getting better every game. They are doing the little things right and the confidence levels are only going one way; up. If the Rangers continue to play this way the next three games are all very winnable. All of a sudden we’re talking about a nine game winning streak and a huge dose of momentum to carry the team forward. A few thoughts after 15 games:

• Marian Gaborik probably won’t win the Hart or Richard trophies but if he carries on playing like he has thus far and the Rangers grab a top 5 spot I think he’s a Hart candidate. Early to say that I know but that’s the kind of level he’s playing at right now and he’s simply dominating games. He may not have scored last night but my word he was all over the ice. This is the Gaborik of ‘old’ and what the Rangers signed up for. E.L.I.T.E
• I’m often critical of Anisimov (only because he’s so talented) but he’s really maturing this season and looks a bona fide top 6 forward even if the sample size is so small. I said a while back that Stepan and Anisimov, in one regard, are fighting each other for prominent roles long term and they are really pushing each other to better and better performances. Both kids are looking good right now.
• Ryan McDonagh is a perfect example of what I said at the start of this post. Coupled with his huge talent and maturity is his growing confidence. The kid is going forward, looking to be involved at every opportunity. What excites the most is the fact his hockey intelligence is off the charts.
• Rangers D: everywhere you look (if you include Marc Staal) the Rangers are blessed with intelligence on the blueline. Girardi, Staal, Sauer, McDonagh; all four process the game very well and that is very exciting as they mature (and hopefully get better).
• Mike Rupp may regret the day he got injured. Based solely on last night’s game, where do you slot him in when he returns? Obviously the team will have slumps, losing streaks and loss of form but right now you wouldn’t change a thing and that could make Rupp an expensive spectator.
• If Boyle-Prust-Fedotenko can find the form (as a trio, not individually) of last year this team suddenly looks stacked.
• Did TSN really call Brad Richards a flop so far? Even if you base it purely on numbers he’s on course for close to 30 goals and 65+ points. That’s hardly a flop even if the numbers would be slightly down from previous years. Throw in the influence he’s clearly having on some of the younger players and it’s still nothing but a successful acquisition. If Richards hits his stride (obviously not in top form yet) and the Rangers keep him and Gaborik on separate lines, the Rangers have two elite players and two strong scoring lines. It’s funny how one addition can really help emphasise balance and depth.
• Read all the above and remember that next season you have Chris Kreider and many, many more close to or ready for the NHL…
• All of this and there was no need to boast about the best goaltending tandem in the league. Excited yet?

Brooks: McDonagh Was A Throw-In

That title is a bit surprising, eh? Larry Brooks of the NY Post has the scoop that now ex-GM of the Montreal Canadiens Bob Gainey wasn’t all that impressed with Ryan McDonagh when they went to scout him in Wisconsin after drafting him 12th overall in the 2007 draft. According to Brooks, the Canadiens expected more:

The Canadiens apparently expected McDonagh to become a dominant offensive  player when they drafted him and, for whatever reason, were not satisfied with  his development as a two-way defenseman with offensive skills that might have  been dormant.

Well that’s just awful, awful talent analysis. The Canadiens dropped the ball, and it appears they were all too happy to give up McDonagh to get their hands on Scott Gomez. As we all know, that trade didn’t quite work out the way the Canadiens thought it would.

Gomez had a normal year, by his career average standards, the first year after the trade, but has quickly fallen out of favor in Montreal, especially with the fans. He had the worst season of his career last year, and has just one assist in six games this season.

Meanwhile, McDonagh worked his way from midseason callup last year to top pairing defenseman this season, and a player than can eat 27 minutes on the blue line without even flinching. Throw in the cap room for Marian Gaborik, and the trade of Chris Higgins (and Ales Kotalik) for Brandon Prust (and some guy with a moustache), and this trade is one that shaped the Rangers into what we see today.

What do the players think of this, well Brandon Dubinsky said it best to Brooks:

“What were they thinking?”

There are 29 clubs wondering this…including the Rangers.

How Much Would You Pay Ryan McDonagh?

Usually anything written about Ryan McDonagh should begin with a big, passionate thank you to Bob Gainey but not this time as we’re past that (thanks Bob). We’re at the point now where McDonagh is becoming an integral part of the Rangers line-up, so much so that well ahead of schedule it’s a legitimate point in time to begin to discuss what McDonagh will be worth to the Rangers.

McDonagh is making a paltry (in comparison to his development) $875k this year and the same amount next season; he’s only eligible to become a restricted free agent prior to the 2013/14 season. McDonagh is also picking up a $425k bonus this season – well deserved thus far you’ll no doubt agree.

When it comes to the point where the Rangers begin to discuss terms with the talented blueliner, assuming the former Wisconsin badger continues his development, it’s going to cost the Rangers a fair bit of dollar. Do the Rangers overpay to get his name on a long term contract or do they use the restricted status to their cap advantage? It may be in their interests to get his name on a longer deal as soon as they can.

The next couple of years could be an expensive time on the blueline for the Rangers so it’s a good thing they have depth on the blue line in the organisation (allowing someone to be traded to make space for new deals). If Del Zotto completes his turn around this year and becomes an integral part of the top 6 his new deal won’t be cheap (after the 2012 season) while Mike Sauer’s latest deal expires at the same time as McDonagh. Meanwhile, Marc Staal and Girardi combine for over 7m in cap commitments. Girardi seems the prime candidate to be the victim of any cap management despite becoming a crucial part of the Rangers.

All Ryan McDonagh has done this year is become a force. He’s still learning and still makes some mistakes but he’s providing offense, doing his thing on the back end in an accomplished manner while doing it all with the composure and demeanour of a veteran way beyond his experience level. With 3 goals, 5 points and a huge amount of ice time this season, McDonagh has made the bitter pill of losing Marc Staal easier to swallow. So how much would you pay him? Would you get him under contract sooner rather than later?