Musings Time: McD’s Potential, Dubi Disappointing, & Another Poll

Let’s have a look at a few things together shall we? Today the Rangers look to put out some Flames and with the King playing like the King he is, confidence will be high that a win is on its way. On that confident note let’s get in to it.

Sean Avery

I couldn’t start this without discussing the Grate One could I? Sean Avery and the Rangers; it was often a marriage of convenience, sometimes a match made in heaven, but always likely to end badly. Avery is a controversial, outspoken type. Tortorella doesn’t like those types. Even the staunchest Avery fans out there; if you thought this was going to end with one (or both) riding off in to the sunset you were always mistaken. Avery does still have something to offer, but thanks to his mouth engaging before his brain he won’t get a chance to offer it – barring some strange circumstances.

New Poll – Is Torts Still The Right Coach For The Rangers?

Speaking of Avery, a couple of weeks back several of our readers were getting on us for being too critical of Sean. Suit created a poll asking everyone to vote on whether or not they were happy to see Avery waived, sort of to prove we weren’t the only ones looking at Avery with judicious eyes. The result? The fan-base was split almost 50/50.

In recent days it seems John Tortorella has taken over as the polarizing poster child for this team. So guess what? Time to vote again people!

PS- Don’t bother voting more than once. We check the logs and remove duplicates

Calm Down Canada

I appreciate Rangers fans overreact to certain things – like a 3 game losing streak – but I find it amusing how the hysteria gets big quick in Toronto. I have family in Toronto and have been there countless times and it’s a great, great city. BUT, they do realise they did the same thing last year and missed the playoffs right? This is why Rangers fans needed to calm down; the Toronto example. They went 5-0 last year and fell off the radar so a 0-1-2 start by your boys was never a disaster.

Side note: By the way, I was in Toronto when the lockout season was cancelled and it was like the entire UK when Princess Diana died – a state of tangible immense national depression. That’s why I want Canada to get another franchise; they live and die our great sport.

Fantasy Revenge

I’m in a few leagues and in one I took two late round risks on Brian Campbell and Dion Phaneuf and got laughed out of the room. Campbell leads the league in assists, Phaneuf in plus/minus. Who’s laughing now?

McDonagh, Mc-doing it

I wanted Ryan McDonagh in his draft year and was left disappointed so when Sather pulled his master stroke I was naturally delighted by the potential. It’s now being realized. Kudos to Dave & The Suit, who have been referring since last season to McDonagh’s potential offense, which is often overlooked. Well he’s fast becoming a workhorse and if there was ever a benefit to the Staal injury this is it. Averaging a mighty 25+ minutes a game, 3 points and a +2 to begin the year; he’s doing it on the stat sheet, but it’s more than stats. Anyone that saw the way he moved in the offensive zone in Vancouver can’t help, but be excited by his hockey IQ and maturity.

Definition of invisible: 3 games played, no shots, no penalties, zero plus/minus, less than 7 minutes ice time per game.I’ll let you guys identify the obvious owner of this unimpressive stat line.

Disappointing Player of the Week

For the purpose of the title, assume the games so far have encompassed the first NHL week. The award goes to Brandon Dubinsky. His finishing has been dire (I could hit the net with greater frequency), his penalty count is through the roof and he simply isn’t doing anything of note. Brandon: it’s not your job to fight. As much as Gaborik, Richards and Callahan are the most important forwards on this team, this team needs Dubinsky to be much, much better.

Final thought of the day: Anyone out there still complaining the Rangers gave a try out to Ruslan Fedotenko just over a year ago? Thought not.

A Look At The Defense’s Quality Of Competition

When the Rangers lost Marc Staal and Mike Sauer, they lost more than two of their top four defensemen. They lost two of their most physical defensemen and two guys that have been relied upon for many games to neutralize the opposition’s top lines. They are out, and others are looked at to fill those gaping holes on defense. Although it is very tough to quantify how the Rangers will look when Staal and Sauer come back, we can look at who the workhorses are, and who is lining up against top quality –or bottom of the barrel– opponents.

Let’s state the obvious: Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh are the workhorses, and they are facing off against the opposition’s top lines night in and night out. They will be doing so for the foreseeable future too, as there does not appear to be any timetable for Staal and Sauer’s return. Using the eye test, it’s easy to say that Michael Del Zotto has been one of the Rangers better defenders as well, and to an extent he has been. But that’s why we have stats like QUALCOMP that measure the quality of competition that each player is facing.

A brief description of QUALCOMP, it is a positive or negative number, and the higher it is, the better competition a player is facing. Let’s look at the table below through the Rangers first three games:

To sum up the table, the players facing the top quality competition are the ones you’d expect in McDonagh and Girardi. After that, it’s interesting to see that Tim Erixon is the player that coach John Tortorella seems to rely on the most when it comes to difficult opponents. The fact that they are the only three with positive QUALCOMP shows how much trust the coach has in them, and how his trust wavers with some of his other options.

Yes, Michael Del Zotto has been pretty good on defense this year, but he is way at the bottom of the QUALCOMP rankings. In fact, Del Zotto is at the very bottom in QUALCOMP for the entire league (excluding Sauer, who is injured). This is, of course, a very small sample size (just three games), and these numbers are likely to change dramatically as there is more of a regression to the mean (or progression to the mean for those slow out of the gate).

While those numbers themselves may change dramatically, the place where each defenseman resides on the list is likely to remain unchanged. It is widely known that with Staal and Sauer out, McDonagh and Girardi will be the top dogs on the blue line. What is troubling is that the Rangers have one defenseman that they are “breaking in” (Del Zotto), and another veteran –one that they relied on heavily last year– that are in the negatives with their QUALCOMP.

We do fall victim to small sample sizes here, as Jeff Woywitka has only played one game, and Steve Eminger took about 10-15 games last year to hit his stride and become that reliable defenseman that helped the Rangers through their injuries last season.  That said, trends will likely continue though, so expect to see Del Zotto facing off against lesser quality opponents, and expect the bulk of the heavy duty work to go to McDonagh and Girardi.

The positive to take out of this is that Tim Erixon has been facing some decent competition, better than both Eminger and Woywitka. He has been up to the task thus far. Although the number may change, he will still be considered to be a “second pairing” guy when it comes to the quality he is facing.

Potential Sophomore Slumps

Last year, the Rangers had several rookies playing key roles in the organization.  Derek Stepan was fifth on the team in goals (21) and fourth in points (45), while Ryan McDonagh and Mike Sauer were counted on as a second pairing, eating up big minutes against tough opponents.  These three, especially Sauer and McDonagh, are going to be expected to improve  –or at least be on par with last year.  Sophomore slumps could really hurt the Rangers.

Don’t think a sophomore slump is possible?  Look at Michael Del Zotto.  He was impressive offensively in his rookie year (defensively he needed help), but his numbers fell off a cliff in his second season.  Regression for Stepan, Sauer, and McDonagh is a definite possibility, and something that could potentially cripple the Rangers this year.

Stepan’s offense falling off a cliff is unlikely, but it is also equally unlikely to affect the Rangers drastically with the addition of Brad Richards.  In fact, you can argue that a sophomore slump from Stepan is almost impossible because Richards and Marian Gaborik will be the focal points for opposing teams.  This allows Stepan to float under the radar a bit as a third line center.

As for Sauer and McDonagh, their ability to shut down offenses and eat big minutes is no longer a secret, and you can be sure that coaching staffs are reviewing video to see if there’s a weakness.  The fear is that as teams adjust, that Sauer and McDonagh might try to do too much, like the way Del Zotto tried to do too much last year.

The saving grave for this pairing is that they are generally defensive defensemen, although McDonagh certainly has the ability to add offense to his game.  If they just focus on making the small adjustments, and not worry about adding an element to their games that they don’t have, then they should be fine.  I don’t expect a Del Zotto-esque collapse, but it is possible that they regress a little bit.

2012-2013: The Best in the League?

I know it’s foolish to look too far down the line, so much changes in a short space of time. However, is it possible that the Rangers will ice the league’s best defensive unit in 12 months time?

Look at the age, the skill sets, the personalities and physical tools that the Rangers have (and will have) at their disposal over the coming seasons. It’s actually quite scary when you look at the depth and age of the players the Rangers can choose from. It’s also a massive compliment to the drafting, trading and developmental ability of the Rangers in recent times.

When you consider the Rangers defensive core this season, it compliments each other very nicely. Marc Staal is coming off a 29 point season and has been one of the best shutdown defenders in the entire league for a few years now and is still only 24 while Dan Girardi’s assets have been well documented (blocking, blocking, blocking) while he too adds some offensive ability.

The Rangers (assuming Del Zotto starts in the minors) don’t benefit from an offensive whiz on the back end like the Kings do with Doughty or the Capitals do with Green but the Rangers may have one of the very best groups of multi faceted defensemen in the league right now. Ryan McDonagh and Mike Sauer are wise beyond their years and all four defenseman should continue to provide the Rangers with an excellent top four. With Girardi being the eldest at 27 the foursome could be together for many years and chemistry (and continuity) should not be underrated.

Beyond the top four, this season will see Mike Del Zotto – the Rangers own offensive hope – and Tim Erixon likely competing for bottom pair duty to begin the year with Steve Eminger. The key here is depth. Eminger has draft pedigree and proved to be a solid depth player for the Rangers so the Rangers truly don’t/won’t need to hold their breath when any of their defensemen take the ice. How many teams in the league can rely on each pair as much as the Rangers can?

Not only have the Rangers a great defense now, but even more impressive may be the future. Do the Rangers have their answer to Zdeno Chara in Dylan McIlrath? Only time will tell but the signs are encouraging and even if he doesn’t reach that standard the Rangers D only stands to get scarier. Never a bad thing. With Erixon, McIlrath and Del Zotto representing the future they are ably backed up by the likes of Valentenko and Kundratek to name a few.

Indeed, the Rangers may have 5-6 legitimate NHL candidates for the blueline beyond the current roster and again, how many teams can boast that depth? The current defensive roster is set but the Rangers haven’t rested on their laurels thanks to good drafting and the defense should be a strength (potentially) for another decade which bodes very well when behind them is a certain Henrik Lundqvist in net. These are many of the reasons for optimism surrounding the Rangers. They have built the right way, from the back out, and it doesn’t look like slowing down.

When I think how the Rangers have built recently I think of the Predators. Year after year the Preds drafted defensemen and they boast one of the deepest cores in the league. It has helped make a small market team highly competitive. The biggest difference is that the Rangers can keep their best players and always attract better ones. The Rangers can compete on every level the Predators cannot and the Rangers now boast a similar defensive pipeline as the Predators have.

It isn’t a stretch to say that with another year of development the Rangers could have the best defensive corps in the entire league. The unit has size, youth, skill, character and pedigree. When you have the talent and youth the Rangers do then it stands to reason that it should be a strength. We’ll see if it becomes the Rangers calling card.

Are the Rangers Now an Example To Others?

This off-season we’ve seen the Flyers essentially turn their team over (at least offensively) to the kids as they jettisoned their captain, Mike Richards and goal scorer Jeff Carter out West. Young forwards James Van Riemsdyk and Claude Giroux are now in possession of the keys to the Flyers future. The Flyers will be hoping that sooner, rather than later, Brayden Schenn will be joining them to form an imposing young trio of skilled leaders.

I can’t help wondering if the Flyers management saw how the Rangers were developing in the right direction as the Rangers were being lead from the front by home grown kids in Dubinsky, Callahan and on the back end Marc Staal. Both clubs have often sought expensive big name forwards, and to their credit, the Flyers have had more success down that path than the Rangers. However, the Rangers have recently had more joy with a better blend of home grown prospects and external recruits which have resulted in a promising future, underpinned by excellent team chemistry.

The Flyers were in a sticky position in that their dressing room was a mess and they needed to make a conscious decision who to entrust their future with. They went with their kids. Other clubs are doing the same as well. As the Canadiens try to re-build on the fly, central to their hopes will be their own drafted center Tomas Plekanec as well as young studs PK Subban and Max Pacioretty.

The Habs had a choice to make this off-season. Try and re-sign James Wisniewski or stick with Subban and oft-injured but uber talented Markov. They went home-grown. More and more clubs are placing greater emphasis on a home grown core because of it helps build chemistry and an identity. They also retained Josh Gorges, known as a good character player.

That focussing on a home grown core doesn’t always work you just need to look at the St Louis Blues who seem to be stuck in neutral despite having quite a few promising young forwards in TJ Oshie, David Perron, David Backes and Patrick Berglund. St Louis’ scenario shows that you need to get the balance right and make the right personnel choices. Clearly the team lacked leadership last year hence they recruited aging veteran leaders, Jamie Langenbrunner and Jason Arnott.

The Rangers are lucky. The players they have placed their hopes in provide them with skill, character and leadership. Callahan, Dubinsky, Marc Staal and kids such as Ryan McDonagh and Derek Stepan show that you can find both skill and leadership in youth. The Flyers will be hoping for the same kind of balance in their new leaders.

Rangers At the World Championships: May 9th

In the aftermath of the Ethan Werek trade and with the NHL playoffs still going on, there is still some newsworthy game action concerning some Rangers players at the World Championships in Slovakia.

Despite a disappointing tournament as host nation Slovakia beat Denmark 4-1 in the early Monday game, their last game of the tournament. Too good for the relegation rounds and not good enough to get to the quarter finals, it was indeed a tournament to forget for a Slovakia team with many NHL stars, including Marian Gaborik. Indeed, Gaborik’s tournament was much like his season for the Rangers. Some success, but not what was perhaps expected. Gaborik collected a primary power play assist on a Marian Hossa goal today, took 5 shots and played a shade under 15 minutes.For the tournament overall, Gaborik had 2 goals and an assist in 6 games (underwhelming?), took 32 shots overall and averaged over 18 minutes per game. He finished -2 for the tournament. One can only hope Gaborik has a good off season and comes back fresh and ready to bounce back from a poor year personally.

The Rangers were also well represented by team USA today, who played against Switzerland in their last ‘qualification’ game before the quarter finals. Derek Stepan (having a great tournament), Ryan McDonagh and Chris Kreider have all played their part in this tournament for the young American team. Unfortunately, the US was upset 5-3 by a hungrier Swiss team who were playing only for pride. Derek Stepan got a secondary assist on the last US goal to continue his highly productive tournament. Stepan grabbed his 7^th point in his 6^th game with his assist. Ryan McDonagh and Chris Kreider were held off the scoreboard in the game as Kreider remains with 3 points in 6 games thus far and McDonagh has a single assist in the tournament. The US team will play the Czech Republic next, either on Wednesday or Thursday. The Czechs have been arguably the best team in the tournament thus far so it’s not an easy game for the US.

Stay Or Go: Mike Sauer

Mike Sauer is the perfect example of when dedication and unwavering self belief go rewarded. Sauer, the last remnants of the Brian Leetch trade, had been with the organisation for a long time before sticking with the big club this year. Oft injured in previous years and even heading into this year a legitimate doubt to make the roster, Sauer has become a rock for the Rangers. Prior to this season, Sauer had only 3 NHL appearances to his name despite being drafted way back in 2005.

This season Sauer has impressed in many ways. Whether it has been his solid defensive play, his willingness to stick up for his teammates or Sauer dropping the gloves when called upon but especially his physical play, Sauer has been a great surprise in New York this year. So much so, that this summer Sauer can expect rather than hope for a new deal from the Rangers.

Sauer has even thrown in some unexpected offense this season. Always considered a defensive defenseman, Sauer grabbed 3 goals and 15 points to go with his exceptional +20 rating which led the team. Given the fact Sauer was a big league rookie; the way he has played – along with his rookie partner Ryan McDonagh – has been sensational. A candidate for the 6/7th defense spots in pre season; Sauer (and McDonagh) locked up the second pairing this season. While Mike Sauer is not necessarily a borderline roster player for next season, what kind of contract he receives this summer is worth debate. The Rangers have a host of young defensemen in the system. How much do they value Sauer now, and going forward?

The Rangers should be looking to get Sauer under contract for at least 2 years. A sensible cap figure and length of deal will allow the club to evaluate the defense while Dylan Mcilrath and Whale players such as Pavel Valentenko and Tomas Kundratek mature and develop. Ideally for the Rangers, when Mcilrath is ready for the big club they will have an envious problem of too much defensive depth and thus some trade assets to play with. After all, there are only so many defensive spots up for grabs.

This season something else aided Sauer’s cause to stick with the Rangers; health. That hasn’t been the case much for Sauer and could be a source of debate come contract negotiation time. Prior to this year only once had Sauer completed more than 65 games in a season since 2006. Thankfully for the Minnesota native health was something he could rely on this season. Sauer was also not considered ideal for the way Coach Tortorella wanted to play but perhaps has benefited most from the change of approach in New York. If the Rangers can come to rely on 15-20 points a season to go along with a defensive shutdown, physical approach Sauer becomes an ideal depth defenseman.

Sauer should be receiving between $1 and $1.5m dollars this summer depending on the length of the deal. Anything around 2 years and $1.1m seems fair. The length of the deal Sauer receives will be a sure fire indicator of the level of confidence the team has in him.

Changing Of The Guard: Sauer/McDonagh Taking Bigger Role

Even two days later, the loss on Wednesday night still stings.  Among the positives, that Chris pointed out yesterday, there was one thing that goes widely overlooked by the fans.  If I asked you to guess, without looking, which defensive pair started each overtime period, you would likely guess Marc Staal and Dan Girardi.  if that is your guess, then you are wrong.

Michael Sauer and Ryan McDonagh are the pair that started each overtime period, and each played about 32 minutes in the double overtime game.  Of course, Staal and Girardi had more ice time at 37 and 40 minutes respectively, and that is to be expected.  But the second item that goes widely unnoticed is that Sauer and McDonagh actually had more shifts than Staal and Girardi.  Yes folks, Staal (42) and Girardi (44) both came in under the 47 shifts for Sauer and McDonagh.  Didn’t expect to hear that, did you?

I’m over the loss, not because I have accepted that it was a loss, but because we saw two kids –two rookies– grow up before our eyes this postseason.  Prior to February, the Rangers defense behind Staal and Girardi was shaky at best, and was evey shakier after shipping out Michal Rozsival for Wojtek Wolski.  Now, the Rangers have possibly the best shutdown pair in the game in Staal and Girardi, and then possibly another top-ten shutdown pair in McDonagh and Sauer.  Combine that with all-world goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, and the Rangers are a defensive force to be reckoned with.

They are still kids, and mistakes will be made (I’m almost positive McDonagh won’t make that pass again for the rest of his career).  Mistakes are a part of the game, but the Rangers have two separate defensive pairs that appear to be capable of shutting down any top offensive line.  Many teams would do anything just to have one pair like this, and the Rangers have two.  Factor in that Girardi is the oldest at just 26 years old, and the Rangers appear to be set for a very, very long time.  Perhaps the best thing about the emergence of Sauer and McDonagh is that Staal and Girardi can take a few more shifts off, which they so desperately need.

Gaborik and McDonagh Back Today & the Link Dump

Hey guys, apologies for the lack of news and posts today.  Let’s just say it’s been an eventful day here in the UK. I could blame Dave as he’s living it up on a nice cruise but he’s left me with it all to do so it’s no one’s fault but mine!

Andrew Gross (see below link) has confirmed Marian Gaborik and Ryan – I’m no rookie – McDonagh are set to return today. In my opinion that’s great news on both fronts. McDonagh has been the very definition of a rock and even in a poor season, give me this team with Gaborik rather than without any day. Today’s game is huge for the Rangers (as is every game from here on in) so they really need these two players in the line up today. We’ll have a pre-game post a little later… Anyway, here’s a few things you might want to check out on this fine Sunday… Well, it’s fine in Cardiff anyway – how about over there?

The Hockey Suit takes a look at the latest issues surrounding the sale of the Coyotes. TSN recently brought up re-location again and if the franchise keeps experiencing problems you never know. The Hockey Suit also considers Winnipeg as natural hosts for the Coyotes. Is a return on the cards?

At Bleeding All Blue Mike Gleich (also of here of course…) looks at Gaborik as he continues to skate and pondered whether he could face the Flyers later today (we know the answer now). Some people may think it’s the wrong game to come back in after a concussion when considering some of today’s opponents but as he’s good to go you’re paying him 7.5m/year for a reason, no? (that’s my opinion, not Mike’s…)

Ranger Pundit takes a look back at the game in Ottawa.

As stated above, Andrew Gross at Rangers Rants has the confirmation of today’s latest news… look’s who’s back…

Rangers Embarass Capitals Again, This Time At Their Place

The Rangers walked into Washington, D.C. a wounded group without their top offensive player in Marian Gaborik and their top defender in All-Star Marc Staal and for one night at least they did not miss either one.  New York would embarrass the Capitals for the second time this season with a 6-0 laugher that should make the Rangers feel good, but hopefully not satisfied as they have to bring this effort again on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Having Henrik Lundqvist playing in top form certainly helped the result tonight as his made 35 saves, some of the gorgeous variety, en route to his league leading eighth shutout.

The bigger worry coming in than Gaborik being out as the Rangers have faced that before this season was how they would do without their defensive stud.  The loss of Staal meant that Ryan McDonagh would have to take on the challenge of facing Alex Ovehckin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Knuble and McDonagh did it beautifully.  The reaction of McDonagh to the assignment was the same as it has been to everything in his 22 games as an NHL player, to just play his game and show he has the strength and poise of a ten year veteran.

On the offensive side the night would belong to an unusual suspect in Erik Christensen.  There has never been a debate about the talent that Christensen possesses, but that talent is also the source of much frustration in that he fails so often to exercise it.  Tonight was one of those nights where he let the talent show as he scored a career high four points including two goals and two assists.  If Christensen did this more often, then the Rangers would not need more offense, but since he doesn’t all I could think to myself with each passing point was how it increased his trade value and Glen Sather should sell high.

New York struck first at 5:56 of the first period when Steve Eminger beat Neuvirth from the right point with the help off a Capitals deflection.  Earlier in the shift Mike Green cross-checked Derek Stepan behind the net, but no call was made.  As play continued the puck went back to the corner where Derek Stepan hit Mike Green in the head and there is going to be controversy here.  On the live look it appeared he hit him with his elbow, but I did not see that on the replay.  Regardless there is head contact and discussion of whether he will get suspended.  Check out the video and discussion here.

The Rangers did not let off the gas this time as late in the first Erik Christensen scored his first goal since returning to the lineup from his injury.  The goal itself was really a tap-in for Christensen off a beautiful saucer pass feed from Michael Sauer.  The goal was Christensen’s seventh of the season and the beginning of a huge night for the talented but inconsistent forward.

Just like the first period the Rangers struck early and then late.  Christensen was the culprit again this time with the early goal in the second period, this time on the power play on a beautiful passing play by the Rangers.  Prospal worked the puck along the boards, feed it down low to Callahan at the left side of the net and he threw a behind the back pass to Christensen on the other side to shoot into an open net.

The goal to close the period came from Derek Stepan and gave the Rangers their second on the power play.  This play was purely the work of beautiful puck movement and a shot/pass from Del Zotto that missed the net, nothing new there, but this time the bounce came to Stepan and he roofed it on a prone Neuvirth.

Third period thankfully saw more of the same with Vinny Prospal getting in on the act 6:16 in with his third of the season.  Like with all Prospal goals the celebration is equivalent to winning the Stanley Cup, but that is the enthusiasm you love about Prospal.  Christensen picked up the primary assist on the goal to give him his third point of the game.

The Rangers rubbed some salt in the wound with a goal by Brian Boyle with 33.7 seconds left in the game.  The goal was Boyle’s 20th of the season and came off a gorgeous backhand pass from that Christensen fella to give him a career high four point night

• Stepan was the most visible forward tonight other than Christensen with his willingness to play a physical game.  We shall see if he gets disciplined for the play with Mike Green, but he plays better when he is physical.
• Michael Sauer was also phenomenal in this game as he continues to improve on an already stellar season.
• Del Zotto, Eminger and Gilroy were all solid tonight, which might give New York enough confidence to not feel the need to bring in another defender, at least not an expensive one.
• Ruslan Fedotenko would have to leave his first game back from shoulder/appendectomy caused absence with an injury to that same shoulder.