If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It

The Rangers are in the middle of a four game winning streak. A streak where they have looked dominant against some teams, and managed to get victories in games where they may not have shown up for the majority of the game. The top three lines are clicking, the defense pairs are playing above and beyond anything expected, and the goaltending has been spectacular. But yet, there are still some whispers about when Sean Avery will be “unleashed.”

There is an old adage: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” This holds true with the Rangers on this current streak. Sean Avery has only been getting five minutes a game, but the top three lines have been superb thus far. The problem with trying to get Avery more minutes is that those minutes have to come from someone else. There is not a single person on the top three lines that Avery can replace without having a negative effect on the overall product on the ice.

The main argument is that he should be taking time from some of the veterans playing over 20 minutes per game, specifically Brad Richards. The problem with that logic is that Richards is getting almost five minutes per game on the powerplay, thus he is only playing 18 minutes at even strength. Eighteen minutes is normal for a top line center, and 23 minutes is normal for someone who is the powerplay quarterback.

The only other forward to play more than 20 minutes is Ryan Callahan, who plays on the powerplay and the penalty kill. Should minutes be taken away from him to make more ice time for Avery? I think a better question is would you prefer to have Avery on the ice on special teams over Callahan? The answer here should be a resounding no.

So while Avery’s recall has apparently provided some spark –the Rangers are 4-0 since the news of his recall broke, the thought of getting him more time is just irresponsible for the time being. The Rangers are winning, and there is not a soul on the top three lines that should be dropped. Sometimes, you have to make it work with what you have, and Avery has been doing that thus far. It’s about the team, not the player.

Game 12 Preview: Canadiens vs. Rangers

Opponent: Les Habitants (5-5-2)

Leading Scorer: Max Pacioretty (4-5-9)

Goaltender: Carey Price (2.45 GAA, .908 SV%)

Rangers Projected Lines: (Unconfirmed)

Ruslan Fedotenko-Derek Stepan-Marian Gaborik
Brandon Dubinsky-Brad Richards-Ryan Callahan
Artem Anisimov-Brian Boyle-Brandon Prust
Sean Avery-Erik Christensen-Andre Deveaux

Ryan McDonagh-Dan Girardi
Michael Del Zotto-Mike Sauer
Jeff Wywitka-Steve Eminger

Henrik Lundqvist

Martin Biron

Scratches/Injuries: Marc Staal (concussion symptoms), Mike Rupp (knee), Wojtek Wolski (groin), Anton Stralman

Scouting Report:  The contract extension given to Pekka Rinne (Nashville), which will pay him $49M for the next 7 years, has instantly turned the spotlight on Price & Management up in Montreal. The last few days the Montreal media has been vigorously debating Price’s potential worth, since he is the last elite goaltender to be on RFA pay. Hopefully the debate gets to Price starting tonight!

The Habs have yet to really get going, but when they are on they are beating teams by capitalizing on turnovers in the neutral zone and on special teams, as all good trapping teams do.

If the Rangers are going to defeat the Canadiens, they will need to be patient and not force long passes through these neutral zone schemes. They are also going to have to be careful with their sticks. I’ve said it before, I am not a conspiracy theorist. However, history has proven time and time again, when the Canadiens come to town, 5-on-5 play lasts about as long as a Kim Kardashian marriage.

It would also be nice if Avery plays like the 2007 version of Avery and not the 2011 version of Avery. I’m not sure what to expect of Sean in his quasi-third stint with the Rangers, but if he beats up PK Subban tonight, all debts are paid.

Crazy Thought: Avery gets a Gordie Howe Hat Trick.

Opponent’s Blog: Habs Blog, don’t worry it’s not in French

Today’s game is on at 7:00pm on MSG, AM1050, and XM92…I think.

Lofty Expectations For Avery

When Sean Avery returns to the lineup tonight, it will be with very high expectations from the fans. Chants of “We Want Avery” rang down from the blue seats from the moment the Rangers touched home ice last week, and have continued in spurts throughout this homestand. When the Rangers play well, the chants are quiet, and sometimes met with harsh criticism from fans. But when the Rangers are losing, the chants get loud. It seems that fans think that Avery is the answer to all that troubles this team.

Whether the above assumption is true or not, it has the appearance of truth, which is all it really needs. From 2007-2008, Sean Avery was a force to be reckoned with on the Rangers. He was incredibly effective, and instantly became a fan favorite. His skills, and most importantly his ability to draw penalties, diminished drastically during Avery’s second run on Broadway, and it ended up with him in the AHL. It seems that fans only remember the 2007-2008 version of Avery.

For Avery to succeed, he needs to be that 2007-2008 Sean Avery. He needs to get under the skin of opponents. He needs to stay onsides. He needs to stay out of the box. He needs to grind along the walls. He needs to do this every single night. The fans have a taste for life without Sean Avery, and it has been pretty decent hockey, all things considered. The Rangers have found ways to beat playoff teams, but have yet to play a full 60 minutes for several straight games (they have two in a row against San Jose and Anaheim though).

But what happens if the 2009-2011 version of Sean Avery shows up? The version that couldn’t do anything above things on a consistent basis? Sure, Avery showed up for a few games against rivals and the Dallas Stars, but other than that he was quite invisible. Will the fans, who love him dearly, turn on him because they realize that this isn’t the Avery they remember? Ranger fans have a history of incredibly lofty expectations that are impossible to meet (see: Drury, Chris circa 2009).

Is it possible that one of the most beloved members of the current Rangers organization can be turned on if he fails to deliver? Avery is not a goal scoring threat, he does not have the offensive talent that many think he does. He is a grinder, and he creates chances with speed, tenacity, and relentless work ethic –when he wants to.

Avery is a smart man. He realizes this is his final shot at sticking with an NHL club, and it may be his final year in the NHL. All signs point to the Rangers cutting him loose after this season, and no team picked him up on re-entry waivers for less than $1 million. Simply put, other than the Rangers, no one wants him. He knows this. The question is: does he play like it?

Avery On Fourth Line Rotation; Appears To Be Healthy Scratch

Following the New York Rangers dominating 5-2 win over the San Jose Sharks on Monday night, a game in which every player on the roster had a strong game, the focus shifted to the newly recalled Sean Avery, and where he would fit in the lineup after such a strong showing. The likely candidates to sit were the usual ones: Wojtek Wolski and Erik Christensen, both of whom have been in the chateau-bow-wow this year.

The answer came in the form of tweets from practice by the beat writers: Avery was in a fourth line rotation with Andre Deveaux, another recent call up from the CT Whale. Deveaux had a very strong game on Monday, and did things that many expected Mike Rupp to do before he went down with his knee injury. It’s unlikely that Deveaux will sit after having a strong game. It is probably best for Avery, who is aware that this may be his last shot at sticking with the NHL, to bide his time and wait for Christensen or Wolski to mess up. One will. And when they do, it will be the Sean Avery show.

The question remains though: Is it going to be the 2007 Sean Avery or the 2010 Sean Avery?

Sean Avery Clears Re-Entry Waivers

As expected, Sean Avery has cleared re-entry waivers, and will be able to join the Rangers during their practice tomorrow. It is unknown if he will be inserted into the lineup, as the Rangers played a complete 60 minutes last night in their 5-2 victory over the San Jose Sharks. The likely candidates to come out of the lineup are Erik Christensen, Wojtek Wolski, and recent call up Andre Deveaux. Considering the way both Christensen and Deveaux played last night, the front runner to sit if Avery dresses would be Wolski. As Suit pointed out in the comments of the recap, Wolski’s play without the puck wasn’t that strong, which may work against him.

Of course, there is a chance that Avery doesn’t even dress. Considering how well the team played, that is a legitimate possibility. Since Avery cleared re-entry waivers, his salary is added back to the books, with a 50% split between the Rangers and the Dallas Stars.

Breaking News: Sean Avery Being Placed On Re-entry Waivers

According to Larry Brooks via Twitter (his source was Bommer Esiason and Nick Kypreos), Sean Avery will be placed on re-entry waivers tomorrow, making him eligible for Thursday’s tilt against the Ducks.

Whether another team is interested in acquiring him is uncertain, but chances are Sather is giving the fans (well half of them anyway according to our polls) what they want for the time being.

For the other half of this fan base, all we can hope for now is that Torts and Sean can somehow get on the same page. Maybe Richards can be a middleman if issues arise? Who knows…

Sean has some skill no doubt, but his coach-ability has been questioned by every NHL coach he has ever played for. If this rumor is true, and he does end up back on the team, hopefully the relationship between Sean and Torts is somehow salvageable. I mean you would have to assume Torts gave the okay to Glen to make this move? Maybe, maybe not.

Either way, things are about to get interesting…

Get well soon Rupper

Whale Watch: Hot Hagelin

The CT Whale enter this weekend with a 1-1-2 record, similar to the Rangers but with two shootout losses on the books. For the first time this season the Whale will play a three-in-three days stretch over the weekend. This will be pretty new territory for some of the prospects on the team and without leading scorer and veteran leader Kris Newbury (tied for 2^nd in the AHL in points) it will be interesting to see how the team reacts.

Up Next:

• Friday: Manchester travel to the XL arena to take on the Whale with a 3-3 record after 6
• Saturday: The Whale travel to Springfield to take on the Falcons who have a 3-2 record in 5
• Sunday: Sunday sees the Whale entertain Springfield in the back end of a home and home.

Prospect Watch

Carl Hagelin has begun his campaign in impressive style. With 4 points in 4 games, an impressive +5 rating and a shorthanded goal to his name statistically speaking it couldn’t be much better for the young Swede. Hagelin has been displaying his impressive speed aplenty and will be needed to lead the offense this weekend with Newbury missing.

Chad Johnson has begun the year brilliantly and is pretty unfortunate to only have one win to his name thus far. With a 1-0-2 record the netminder still boasts a .939 save percentage and 1.85 goals against average. Bear in mind his sole victory was a 1-0 shootout win and Johnson hasn’t had much offensive support. If he gets that support the team can certainly rely on their goalie at the moment.

Aside from Hagelin, of all the (young) prospects on the Whale only Tomas Kundratek has a point to claim as his own. With one assist in 4 games the young blueliner is off to a relatively muted start and only has 2 shots through 4 games.

Ryan Bourque has already missed a game with illness/injury and in 3 games is scoreless and -2 thus far. Again noting Newbury’s absence, Bourque should have more ice time if he’s in the line-up.

Avery Factor

The circus comes to town this weekend and it will be interesting for several reasons; will Avery be a positive factor or a major distraction? Will he even be able to suit up this weekend (indications are that he will). If Avery plays he should be a difference maker at this level and could be an interesting addition to Hagelin’s line or, if Bourque moves to center on his line. Hopefully the Avery ‘addition’ to Connecticut won’t be the only storyline of their weekend.

Musings Time: McD’s Potential, Dubi Disappointing, & Another Poll

Let’s have a look at a few things together shall we? Today the Rangers look to put out some Flames and with the King playing like the King he is, confidence will be high that a win is on its way. On that confident note let’s get in to it.

Sean Avery

I couldn’t start this without discussing the Grate One could I? Sean Avery and the Rangers; it was often a marriage of convenience, sometimes a match made in heaven, but always likely to end badly. Avery is a controversial, outspoken type. Tortorella doesn’t like those types. Even the staunchest Avery fans out there; if you thought this was going to end with one (or both) riding off in to the sunset you were always mistaken. Avery does still have something to offer, but thanks to his mouth engaging before his brain he won’t get a chance to offer it – barring some strange circumstances.

New Poll – Is Torts Still The Right Coach For The Rangers?

Speaking of Avery, a couple of weeks back several of our readers were getting on us for being too critical of Sean. Suit created a poll asking everyone to vote on whether or not they were happy to see Avery waived, sort of to prove we weren’t the only ones looking at Avery with judicious eyes. The result? The fan-base was split almost 50/50.

In recent days it seems John Tortorella has taken over as the polarizing poster child for this team. So guess what? Time to vote again people!

PS- Don’t bother voting more than once. We check the logs and remove duplicates

Calm Down Canada

I appreciate Rangers fans overreact to certain things – like a 3 game losing streak – but I find it amusing how the hysteria gets big quick in Toronto. I have family in Toronto and have been there countless times and it’s a great, great city. BUT, they do realise they did the same thing last year and missed the playoffs right? This is why Rangers fans needed to calm down; the Toronto example. They went 5-0 last year and fell off the radar so a 0-1-2 start by your boys was never a disaster.

Side note: By the way, I was in Toronto when the lockout season was cancelled and it was like the entire UK when Princess Diana died – a state of tangible immense national depression. That’s why I want Canada to get another franchise; they live and die our great sport.

Fantasy Revenge

I’m in a few leagues and in one I took two late round risks on Brian Campbell and Dion Phaneuf and got laughed out of the room. Campbell leads the league in assists, Phaneuf in plus/minus. Who’s laughing now?

McDonagh, Mc-doing it

I wanted Ryan McDonagh in his draft year and was left disappointed so when Sather pulled his master stroke I was naturally delighted by the potential. It’s now being realized. Kudos to Dave & The Suit, who have been referring since last season to McDonagh’s potential offense, which is often overlooked. Well he’s fast becoming a workhorse and if there was ever a benefit to the Staal injury this is it. Averaging a mighty 25+ minutes a game, 3 points and a +2 to begin the year; he’s doing it on the stat sheet, but it’s more than stats. Anyone that saw the way he moved in the offensive zone in Vancouver can’t help, but be excited by his hockey IQ and maturity.

Definition of invisible: 3 games played, no shots, no penalties, zero plus/minus, less than 7 minutes ice time per game.I’ll let you guys identify the obvious owner of this unimpressive stat line.

Disappointing Player of the Week

For the purpose of the title, assume the games so far have encompassed the first NHL week. The award goes to Brandon Dubinsky. His finishing has been dire (I could hit the net with greater frequency), his penalty count is through the roof and he simply isn’t doing anything of note. Brandon: it’s not your job to fight. As much as Gaborik, Richards and Callahan are the most important forwards on this team, this team needs Dubinsky to be much, much better.

Final thought of the day: Anyone out there still complaining the Rangers gave a try out to Ruslan Fedotenko just over a year ago? Thought not.

Tortorella, Avery Involved In He Said/He Said

The drama with Sean Avery and John Tortorella continues. Avery was candid in his comments to Katie Strang of ESPN when asked about his shot at making the Rangers and if the Rangers will ever recall him. On being recalled:

Probably not. I doubt it.

On him being given a fair shot:

I’d say it’s pretty obvious. I’ll let everyone else decide for themselves.

Tortorella, upon being made aware of these comments after the Rangers skate in Vancouver, had this to say:

I’m so busy worrying about this team. This is the first time I’ve heard about it,” Tortorella said. “We go about our business here, and I know that’s a story I’m sure that’s going to be talked about a lot, because Sean was here and very well-liked, but again I’m coaching this hockey club here. Talk to Kenny (Whale coach Ken Gernander). I don’t know what’s going on down there. So I can’t comment on it.

It’s very clear that neither like each other. We’ve covered why keeping Erik Christensen over Avery for the 13th forward spot was the right move, even if unpopular among the fanbase. It’s not something we are going to continue to dive into, but these comments are interesting nonetheless.

Keeping Erik Christensen Was The Right Move

If you’ve been reading this blog for the past year, then you know that I am not a fan of Erik Christensen. I think he has tremendous skill, but is maddeningly inconsistent to the point where his value diminishes. His play frustrates me so much because he just seems so lackadaisical when he doesn’t have the puck, especially in his own end. That said, in the battle between him and Sean Avery, while my gut said Avery, my brain says that keeping Christensen was the right move.

The first reason here is the salary: Christensen simply makes less money, and the $1 million difference will go a long way to patching some holes in this lineup to make a playoff run. For a player who is likely going to be a healthy scratch for 40 games, there was no point in keeping Avery and his $1.9 million salary. Christensen’s $925k salary is an easier pill to swallow from the press box.

Avery, while popular with the fans, lost his touch. He is no longer the 15 goal guy, and he no longer agitates opponents regularly. There is no one to blame here but Avery himself, and any finger pointing to John Tortorella is unjust, because Avery has been given his fair share of opportunities. Yes, he is a blue collar guy, but he just can’t do what he used to do. He scored three goals last year. Three.

The general argument for keeping Avery is that he draws penalties. Looking deeper into this stat, it was true at one point, but simply is not true anymore. Luckily, the guys at Behind The Net keep track of such statistics, so there’s the ability to use numbers to defend this argument. In the table below, we see Avery’s penalties taken per 60 minutes (PTake/60) and his penalties drawn per 60 minutes (PDrawn/60). The numbers don’t lie.

As the table shows, Avery has been drawing just .1 more penalties for each one taken in the past two years. Simply put, Avery draws 11 penalties for every 10 he takes. That is not a good enough reason to keep him around. When Avery was the most effective, he was drawing one extra penalty for each one he took (2007-2008, 2008-2009). Regardless of what you want to say about phantom calls and swallowing the whistle when it comes to Avery, the fact is that he is not as effective as he used to be, whether by his fault or by others.

Even GVT and PVT work against Avery here. Christensen had a 5.4 GVT (1.8 PVT) last season, while Avery had a 2.5 GVT (.833 PVT). By those numbers, having Christensen with the team will give the Rangers an extra point in the standings at the end of the season. The numbers tell the story: Christensen was the right person to keep.